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☆ A government shutdown isn’t good for Republicans like me
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( Anna Lee | Opinion Mike Lawler | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Reckless spending and radical policies created near-record inflation, soaring grocery bills, rising energy costs and skyrocketing interest and mortgage rates. That’s why we are barreling toward a shutdown rather than agreeing on a spending package to keep the federal government working. Worse, they seemingly live in an alternate reality where Republicans control the White House and the US Senate as well as the House of Representatives. My constituents sent me here to represent their interests, and let me tell you, no one wins in a government shutdown. Bipartisanship isn’t a sign of weakness, and it isn’t something to be derided; it’s a sign of a functional democracy.

Persons: Mike Lawler, Michael V, Bidenomics ”, Biden, Newsflash, Matt Gaetz, –, Kevin McCarthy, Let’s Organizations: New, Congressional, Financial Services, House Foreign Affairs, SALT Caucus, Caucus, Scenic Trails Caucus, Moldova Caucus, CNN, Lawler, Republican Conference, Republican, GOP, White, Senate, Representatives, Biden, New York Locations: United States, Washington, New York, Florida, New, New York’s

☆ PCE: Gas prices heated up inflation last month, but there's also welcome progress for the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Minneapolis CNN —Higher gas prices heated up overall inflation last month, but the Federal Reserve got some welcome news: Its preferred inflation gauge cooled to its lowest level in two years. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, a closely watched inflation measure that excludes gas and food prices, rose 3.9% for the 12 months ended in August. However, it also was largely expected: Gas prices heated up last month as well. The Commerce Department’s monthly Personal Income and Outlays reports are typically closely watched as they provide a comprehensive account of pricing, income and spending data. Other federal data at risk for delays could include key housing and auto sales data, Census Bureau data, PCE and GDP reports, among others.

Persons: ” Andrew Patterson, ” Patterson, ” Dana Peterson, “ That’s, ”, that’s, Price, Security Administration’s, “ We’ve, ” Vanguard’s Patterson, “ Organizations: Minneapolis CNN —, Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Vanguard, CNN, Energy, “ Energy, Consumers, Commerce, Conference Board, Labor, Department, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Price, Security, Adjustment, Labor Department Locations: Minneapolis, Saudi Arabia, Russia

[1/2] A general view of Polish shoe retailer CCC shop is pictured, amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), in Warsaw, Poland, September 8, 2020. "Let me tell you, there was a time when I couldn't even afford to buy salmon, for example. Buczek has benefited from the fact that PiS has raised her pension as part of hefty welfare spending moves which, opinion surveys show, are easing Poles' concerns over high inflation. The Polish minimum wage, already the highest in central Europe, will rise by nearly a fifth next year. With many houseowners on variable loan rates, Warsaw recently extended a scheme for mortgage repayment holidays into next year.

Persons: Kacper, Jadwiga Buczek, Buczek, PiS, Steffen Dyck, Adam Glapinski, Fitch, Federico Barriga Salazar, Andrzej Kuzniak, Moody's Dyck, Kacper Pempel, Jan Strupczewski, Gergely, Mark John, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Justice, European Union, European Commission, National Bank of, Sovereign Risk, Moody's, International Monetary Fund, Civic Coalition, Thomson Locations: Warsaw, Poland, WARSAW, Poland's, Europe, NBP, Brussels

☆ US posts August budget surplus after student loan cost reversal
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( David Lawder | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The August surplus - the first for that month since 1955 - compares to a year-earlier deficit of $220 billion. Receipts last month totaled $283 billion, down 7% or $21 billion from a year earlier, while outlays came to $194 billion after the student loan reversal, down 63% or $329 billion. After nearly a three-year moratorium due to the COVID-19 pandemic, student loan monthly repayments are due to resume Oct. 1. Year-to-date outlays totaled $5.496 trillion, up 3% or $142 billion, partly reflecting the student loan reversal. However, a Treasury official said the nominal interest cost was not a record as a share of Gross Domestic Product.

Persons: Joe Biden's, outlays, Biden, Biden's, David Lawder, Paul Simao Organizations: U.S, Treasury, Democratic, Internal Revenue, Federal, Gross, Thomson

☆ Mexico's Election Year Deficit Plan Fuels Fear Over Finances
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-11 | by ( Sept. | At P.M. | ) www.usnews.com time to read: +3 min

By Dave Graham and Diego OréMEXICO CITY (Reuters) - The Mexican government's plan to run up the biggest budget deficit in decades during the 2024 general election year could put pressure on public finances and eventually threaten its credit rating, analysts said on Monday. Lopez Obrador last week backed former Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum as his party's candidate to succeed him. Historic data show the projected budget deficit for 2024 will be the highest since 1988 as a proportion of GDP. The government's higher spending plans should bolster Latin America's second-biggest economy, which has outpaced forecasts this year, brightening the outlook for 2024. He also noted that since Mexico's current account deficit is currently considerably lower than foreign direct investment, there was a pool of untapped demand in the economy that the government could temporarily offset via higher spending.

Persons: Dave Graham, Diego, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, Lopez, Patricia Terrazas, Lopez Obrador, Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum, Gabriela Siller, Alberto Ramos, Goldman Sachs, Ramos, Raul Feliz, Feliz, Diego Ore, Noe Torres, Jamie Freed Organizations: MEXICO CITY, Lopez Obrador's, Action Party, PAN, Mexico City Mayor, Banco Base, Bank of Locations: MEXICO, Mexico, Bank of Mexico, Mexico City

☆ Ballooning US deficit will keep bond yields high, even as inflation cools, market veteran says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-11 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Despite cooling inflation, a growing US deficit will force yields to stay elevated, Ed Yardeni wrote. The 10-year Treasury yield is likely to remain elevated at around 4.25%-4.5%. "That's the highest ever excluding during the Covid-19 pandemic, despite Biden's claim that his administration has implemented measures to slash the deficit," Yardeni wrote. So, even as inflation heads towards the Federal Reserve's 2% target rate, the 10-year Treasury bond is likely to remain elevated at around 4.25%-4.50%, the market veteran said. Increasing the yield may be necessary as net inflows into bond mutual funds and ETFS has dwindled, Yardeni wrote.

Persons: Ed Yardeni, That's, Yardeni Organizations: Service, Treasury Department, Federal, Social Security, Treasury, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon

REUTERS/Raquel Cunha Acquire Licensing RightsMEXICO CITY, Sept 11 (Reuters) - The Mexican government's plan to run up the biggest budget deficit in decades during the 2024 general election year could put pressure on public finances and eventually threaten its credit rating, analysts said on Monday. Lopez Obrador last week backed former Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum as his party's candidate to succeed him. Historic data show the projected budget deficit for 2024 will be the highest since 1988 as a proportion of GDP. The government's higher spending plans should bolster Latin America's second-biggest economy, which has outpaced forecasts this year, brightening the outlook for 2024. He also noted that since Mexico's current account deficit is currently considerably lower than foreign direct investment, there was a pool of untapped demand in the economy that the government could temporarily offset via higher spending.

Persons: Mexico's Finance Ministry Rogelio Ramirez de la O, Marcela Guerra, Raquel Cunha, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, Lopez, Patricia Terrazas, Lopez Obrador, Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum, Gabriela Siller, Alberto Ramos, Goldman Sachs, Ramos, Raul Feliz, Feliz, Dave Graham, Diego Ore, Noe Torres, Jamie Freed Organizations: Mexico's Finance Ministry, Mexican, REUTERS, Lopez Obrador's, Action Party, PAN, Mexico City Mayor, Banco Base, Bank of, Thomson Locations: Mexico City, Mexico, MEXICO, Bank of Mexico

☆ In U.S.-China AI contest, the race is on to deploy killer robots
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +26 min

In this high-tech contest, seizing the upper hand across fields including AI and autonomous weapons, like Ghost Shark, could determine who comes out on top. This could become critical if the United States intervened against an assault by Beijing on Taiwan. Cheap and expendableThe AI military sector is dominated by software, an industry where change comes fast. Still, the available disclosures of spending on AI military research do show that outlays on AI and machine learning grew sharply in the decade from 2010. The Costa-Mesa, California-based company now employs more than 1,800 staff in the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia.

Persons: America’s, Shane Arnott, Anduril, ” Arnott, Arnott, ”, “, Mick Ryan, Eric Schmidt, hasn’t, Lloyd Austin, –, Stuart Russell, Russell, Kathleen Hicks, “ We’ll, Palmer Luckey, Luckey, ” Arnott didn’t, Biden, Tsai Ing, Frank Kendall, Datenna, Martijn Rasser, Feng Yanghe, Feng, Palmer, ” Anduril, Arnott wouldn’t, David Lague, Edgar Su, Catherine Tai, Peter Hirschberg Organizations: Australian Navy, Ghost Sharks, Sharks, Reuters, Defense, Australian, Chinese Communist Party, Beijing, People’s Liberation Army, PLA, Department of Defense, Pentagon, Australia’s Department of Defence, Australian Defence Force, Technologists, University of California, U.S ., U.S, Teledyne FLIR, Facebook, VR, Military, . Air Force, FH, U.S . Central Intelligence Agency, Department, Statistics, Harvard University, Biden Administration, Special, Command, Ministry of Defense, Veteran Locations: China, Australia, United States, Sydney, Britain, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Europe, Asia, Ukraine, ”, America, U.S, Taiwan, East Asia, Beijing, Russian, Berkeley, Fort Campbell , Tennessee, Kenya, “, Russia, Colorado, Zhuhai, Netherlands, Costa, Mesa , California, United Kingdom, Virginia, Canberra, Washington

☆ Exclusive: New rules would give Europe more scope for military spending post-Ukraine invasion
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-07 | by ( Jan Strupczewski | Thomson Reuters | Jan Is The Acting Bureau Chief In Brussels. He Has Been Covering European Union Policy | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

EU fiscal rules underpin the euro currency used in 20 nations by limiting government borrowing. Currently only nine EU members meet a NATO alliance defence spending goal of 2% of national output, with four - Finland, Romania, Hungary and the Slovak Republic - above that only in 2023. After Moscow's invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, many European countries neighbouring Russia called for military spending to be excluded outright from EU deficit calculations. 'NOT HEARD A NO'Opposition to a full exemption from EU calculations stemmed from concern that military spending could be a very broad category that could help hide a lot of ordinary expenses. By stipulating that military spending would only be a "relevant factor" that could help avoid disciplinary action, the new rules would leave it to the Commission's judgement what spending would be eligible.

Persons: Valentyn, Deal, Jan Strupczewski, Mark John, Andrew Cawthorne Organizations: Union, NATO, REUTERS, European, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, Kyiv, BRUSSELS, EU, Finland, Romania, Hungary, Slovak Republic, France, Germany, Italy, NATO, Russia, U.S

A Huge Threat to the U.S. Budget Has Receded. For decades, runaway Medicare spending was the story of the federal budget. Budget news often sounds apocalyptic, but the Medicare trend has been unexpectedly good for federal spending, saving taxpayers a huge amount relative to projections. In a recent letter to the Senate Budget Committee, economists at the Congressional Budget Office described the huge reductions in its Medicare forecasts between 2010 and 2020. Medicare is growing more slowly than ever, but still more quickly than the rest of the federal budget.

Persons: Ronald Reagan, Barack Obama, that’s, ”, David Cutler, Cutler, haven’t, I’ve, Melinda Buntin, Buntin, Simpson, Bowles, aren’t, Trump, Joshua Gordon, Mitt Romney’s, “, Sherry Glied Organizations: Medicare, ”, U.S, Budget, Harvard, Obama, Affordable, Senate, Congressional, New York Times, Office, White, Office of Management, Johns Hopkins, Social Security, Congress, Federal, Veterans, NASA, Wagner School Locations: Iraq, Afghanistan, N.Y.U, Washington

☆ US households are on the brink with excess savings likely to be depleted by month-end, San Francisco Fed says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( Joseph Wilkins | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Savings built up by American households during the pandemic are all but gone, the San Francisco Fed says. In 2021, Americans had amassed a record $2.1 trillion in excess savings, spurred by government stimulus checks and a drop in in-person spending. AdvertisementAdvertisement"Our updated estimates suggest that households held less than $190 billion of aggregate excess savings by June. There is considerable uncertainty in the outlook, but we estimate that these excess savings are likely to be depleted during the third quarter of 2023," San Francisco Fed analysts said in a recent blog. As of July 2023, the US personal savings rate stood at 3.5% – below pre-pandemic averages.

Persons: San Francisco Fed, –, Marko Kolanovic Organizations: San Francisco, Service, San Francisco Fed, Federal Reserve Locations: Wall, Silicon

A man walks in front of the headquarters of Bank of Japan in Tokyo, Japan, January 18, 2023. For years, the government has kept borrowing costs, as measured by assumed interest rates, low, effectively allowing the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to bankroll debt. That is up from 25.25 trillion yen this year, the sources said, requesting anonymity as they were not authorised to speak publicly. For the current fiscal year, the annual budget hit a record 114 trillion yen, boosted by steps to cope with COVID. Social security accounts for nearly one-third of budget spending, making it the lion's share of the overall budget, followed by debt-servicing costs, which make up more than a fifth of the budget.

Persons: Issei Kato, Izuru Kato, Tetsushi Kajimoto, Takaya Yamaguchi, Sam Holmes, Alex Richardson Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Rights, Totan, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, China, North Korea

☆ What higher-for-longer interest rates could mean for tech stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-31 | by ( Krystal Hur | American Airlines Flight Attendants Vote To Authorize A Strike | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

CNN —After roaring higher for most of this year, the rally in tech stocks sputtered in August as investors grew increasingly worried about how long the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates high. Strong economic data in recent months has investors betting that the Fed will keep interest rates higher for longer. Higher yields also mean companies will need to pay more interest on their debt in the future, eating into future cash flows. Sustained, lofty yields could particularly pose a problem for tech stocks, which often trade at a premium because of the promise of rapid growth. Any sell-off in tech could reverberate across the broader market, since those stocks are largely responsible for propelling this year’s rally.

Persons: Ivana Delevska, Spear, Bryan Mena, CNN’s Gregory Wallace, Julie Hedrick, “ We’re, Read Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Nvidia, Devices, Marvell Technology, Gross, Commerce, American Airlines, Association of Professional, Airline

☆ US consumer spending accelerates; monthly inflation rates cooling
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-31 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Consumer spending is being supported by a tight labor market, with other data showing first-time applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly falling last week. "How long inflation can continue to come down with consumer spending this strong is an open question." When adjusted for inflation, consumer spending increased 0.6%, also the largest gain since January. The so-called real consumer spending rose 0.4% in June. The annual PCE inflation rates were lifted by a lower base of comparison last year.

Persons: Andrew Kelly, Christopher Rupkey, nonfarm payrolls, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Services, Treasury, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Fed, Employers, Labor Department, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Manhattan , New York City, U.S, WASHINGTON, New York, outlays

☆ "Barbenheimer" makes waves for July's movie spending, but box office recovery still lags
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-31 | by ( Amina Niasse | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Mike Blake/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Aug 31 (Reuters) - "Barbenheimer" - the twin-bill summer box office phenom - sure helped to drive U.S. consumers back to cinemas last month, but movie-going is still struggling to catch up to other recreational spending categories post-pandemic. While that helped long-suffering box office receipts, it made less of a splash for overall consumer spending when compared to larger categories like clothing and household furnishings, economists at Oxford Economics said. It made a big difference in the live-event spending area though, at least for the moment. This summer’s box office has been out of the ordinary with ticket sales for the season up $500 million from last summer’s sales, according to data firm Box Office Mojo. While other categories of live-event spending have fully recovered from the hit delivered by pandemic shutdowns, film attendance outlays remain at roughly 65% of their pre-COVID levels.

Persons: Mike Blake, Oppenheimer, Michael Pearce, Taylor, Amina Niasse, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Commerce Department, Warner Bros, Oxford Economics, Graphics, Mojo, Sporting, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Gillette, Billboard, Thomson Locations: Los Angeles , California, U.S, Massachusetts

☆ The Fed’s preferred inflation measure stayed high in July — and consumers are continuing to spend
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-31 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Minneapolis CNN —US inflation may have remained elevated in July, but consumers just wanted to have some fun. It’s the strongest monthly spending gain since January; however, underlying data indicates this type of activity may be on borrowed time. The Personal Consumption Expenditures index showed that prices increased 0.2% on a monthly basis and 3.3% annually. Economists were expecting monthly increases of 0.2% for the headline and core indexes and 3.3% and 4.2%, respectively, for the annual numbers. Even when adjusted for inflation, spending surged in July, rising by 0.6% from the month before.

Persons: ” Eugenio Alemán, Raymond James, “, ” Gregory Daco, EY, Jerome Powell, ” Powell, Wells, Shannon Seery, Wells Fargo, ” Seery, ” Daco, Powell, Jackson, ” Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, New Commerce Department, Federal, Commerce Department, Amazon’s, PCE, CNN, “, of Labor Statistics Locations: Minneapolis, Jackson Hole , Wyoming

☆ The US economy grew more slowly in the second quarter than previously estimated
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-30 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Washington, DC CNN —The US economy grew more slowly in the second quarter than previously estimated — a good sign for the Federal Reserve, which is attempting to cool demand to bring down price increases. Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic output, rose at an annualized rate of 2.1% in the second quarter, according to the Commerce Department’s second estimate, released Wednesday morning. The second estimate factored in greater consumer spending, government outlays and exports, compared with the initial estimate. Economic growth in the second quarter was mostly broad based, but there were some signs of weakened demand for goods purchases and imports. Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of economic output, was revised slightly higher in the second estimate.

Persons: ”, Bill Adams, Barbie, Taylor Swift, Jerome Powell, ” Powell, Biden, Lydia Boussour, “ Organizations: DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Gross, Commerce, Consumer, Comerica Bank, The Commerce Department, Kansas City, Atlanta Fed, Fed Locations: Washington, United States, Wells Fargo, EY

☆ Consumers have spent all of their excess savings from the pandemic. That's just one reason why stocks are poised to fall, JPMorgan says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-19 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

US consumers have spent all of their excess savings from the pandemic, according to JPMorgan. The bank highlighted the softening of the consumer as one reason why stocks are poised to continue their decline. In a Thursday note, he said consumers have spent down the entirety of their excess savings from the pandemic, which at one point totaled more than $2 trillion. A softening consumer is just one reason why he is preaching continued caution towards the stock market amid its 5% decline, according to the note. Another headwind for the stock market is the fact that rich valuations make buybacks less attractive for companies when they're funded by debt, he added.

Persons: JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic Organizations: JPMorgan, Service Locations: Wall, Silicon, China, Germany

☆ Soccer-Bayern still a work in progress with Bundesliga season set to start
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The Bavarians have won the last 11 consecutive league crowns but they needed a Borussia Dortmund slip-up on the final matchday last season to retain it. A 3-0 loss to RB Leipzig in the German Super Cup at home on Saturday left Tuchel, who took over from Julian Nagelsmann late last season, fuming. Kane's German debut, with a low-key substitute appearance in the second half of their Super Cup loss, did little to dampen Bayern fans' enthusiasm and expectations. Their Super Cup win over Bayern gave them an early shot of confidence but they will have to repeat it again on Saturday when they face ambitious Leverkusen in their season opener. "We can improve many things but this obviously did give us a push," said Leipzig coach Marco Rose of the win against Bayern.

Persons: Thomas Tuchel, Harry Kane, Kai Pfaffenbach, Robert Lewandowski, Tuchel, Julian Nagelsmann, Manuel Neuer, Kim Min, jae, Felix Nmecha, Marcel Sabitzer, Rami Bensebaini, Granit Xhaka, Victor Boniface, Jonas Hofmann, Christopher Nkunku, Konrad Laimer, Dominik Szoboszlai, Josko Gvardiol, Andre Silva, Marco Rose, Robin Gosens, Karolos, Robert Birsel Organizations: Soccer Football, DFL, Bayern Munich, RB Leipzig, Allianz Arena, REUTERS, Rights, Bundesliga, Werder Bremen, Borussia Dortmund, Bayern, Tottenham Hotspur, Borussia, Bayer Leverkusen, Germany, Leverkusen, Champions League, Thomson Locations: Munich, Germany, Barcelona, Napoli, Leipzig, Union Berlin

☆ What do ‘Big Short’ Michael Burry and Warren Buffett know that we don’t?
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-16 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Michael Burry, the “Big Short” investor who became famous for correctly predicting the epic collapse of the housing market in 2008, also made a gigantic bet last quarter on a Wall Street crash. Bank of America released its August global fund manager survey on Tuesday and found that money managers are feeling the least pessimistic about markets since February 2022. So what do Buffett and Burry know that the rest of us don’t? Russia and Ukraine: Global inflation is finally coming down, but heightened geopolitical tensions threaten to raise food and oil prices across the globe. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to stoke fears of increased commodity prices, global economic instability and uncertainty around security.

Persons: Warren, Berkshire Hathaway, That’s, Michael Burry, Buffett, Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase, hasn’t, Fitch, ”, Gregory Daco, Catherine Thorbecke, Catherine Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Securities, Exchange, Scion Asset Management, Bank of America, Traders, National Bureau of Statistics, JPMorgan, CNBC, Bank, First Republic Bank, Huntington Bank, PacWest, Western Alliance, Commerce Department Locations: New York, China, Ukraine, Russia, stoke, Huntington, Lahaina , Hawaii, Lahaina, Las Vegas, Maui

☆ Barclays names the global stocks benefitting from falling inflation — and gives two 60% upside
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-15 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Barclays identified several European stocks that it says could benefit from an environment of falling inflation. As interest rates remain elevated, inflation is expected to fall further toward the European Central Bank's 2% target in the coming months. The below table highlights 10 "disinflation winners" from Barclays with the biggest upside: Delivery Hero Among the stocks highlighted, shares of food delivery company Delivery Hero had the biggest upside potential. Lloyds Banking Group Barclays expects shares of U.K.-based lender Lloyds Banking Group to rise 64% over the next 12 months to £0.70 ($0.89). Together with falling provision risks we expect higher profits to drive outsized capital returns," said Barclays' analysts led by Aman Rakka in a note to clients on July 27.

Persons: Emmanuel Cau, Andrew Ross, Aman Rakka, Larissa van Deventer Organizations: Barclays, Central, Lloyds Banking Group Barclays, Lloyds Banking Group, Lloyds, Legal, General Barclays Locations: U.S

☆ Morgan Stanley thinks this stock that traces its roots to the Wright Brothers is a great buy here
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-07 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Shares in Curtiss-Wright , which makes sensors, controls, subsystems and mission critical components for aircraft, have already climbed about 24% in 2023. CW 1Y mountain Curtiss-Wright shares over the past year. The "risk reward skews positive" on Curtiss-Wright shares, the Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a Sunday note, upgrading the North Carolina manufacturer to overweight from equal weight. "The Pivot to Growth continues and endmarket demand remains robust, positioning CW for underappreciated topline expansion," Morgan Stanley said, referring to management's strategy. Curtiss-Wright's defense electronics business could grow at a 13% compounded annual rate through 2024 in light of heightened Defense Department outlays and reduced supply chain pressures, Morgan Stanley said.

Persons: Glenn Curtiss, Wilbur, Orville Wright, Kristine Liwag, Morgan Stanley, Wright, Morgan, Curtiss, CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Curtiss, Department Locations: Friday's, North Carolina

While an ISM survey offered a tough assessment of U.S. manufacturing conditions, so-called hard data suggest the sector is shuffling along. Federal Reserve data in June showed factory production rebounded in the second quarter, ending two straight quarterly declines. Meanwhile, U.S. construction spending increased solidly last month and May's data was revised higher, boosted by outlays in both single and multifamily housing projects, the Commerce Department said. China's Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) missed analysts forecasts and showed the first decline in activity since April. Money markets now see a 60% probability that the Bank of England will hike rates by 25 basis points on Thursday.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Steven Ricchiuto, Carlos Casanova, Kit Juckes, Sterling, Herbert Lash, Joice Alves, Ankur Banerjee, Alex Richardson, Hugh Lawson, Alexander Smith Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Federal, outlays, Commerce Department, Labor, Survey, Labor Department, Mizuho Securities USA, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Japan, U.S, Natixis Investment, P Global, European Central Bank, ECB, Societe Generale, Bank of, Thomson Locations: Asia, Hong Kong, U.S, Bank of England, London, Singapore

☆ Turkey curbs credit card use for foreign travel, in blow to sector
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( Ceyda Caglayan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

ISTANBUL, Aug 1 (Reuters) - Turkey's banking watchdog has stopped allowing credit card payments by instalment for foreign travel, such as flights, travel agency fees and accommodation, in a step seen dealing a blow to foreign travel operators. The move, which hit airline shares and was seen as curbing foreign currency outflows, was one of two measures announced by the BDDK watchdog late on Monday, which it said were among coordinated steps to strengthen financial stability. "The logic (of the step) is 'citizens shouldn't go abroad and spend foreign currency'," he said, adding that the foreign travel sector was also being hit by increasing difficulties faced by Turks in securing tourist visas. The credit card move also had an impact on airline share prices, with Turkish Airlines (THYAO.IS) dipping 1.3% and the airline Pegasus (PGSUS.IS) dropping 2.3%. ($1 = 26.9618 liras)Reporting by Ebru Tuncay; Editing by Daren Butler and Emelia Sithole-MatariseOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Cem Polatoglu, shouldn't, Ebru Tuncay, Daren Butler, Emelia Organizations: Turks, Turkish, Turkish Airlines, Pegasus, Thomson Locations: ISTANBUL

☆ Auction sizes set to increase at US Treasury refunding
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Treasury earlier this month posted a $228 billion budget deficit for June, up 156% from a year earlier. "They have to grow coupon auction sizes - not just at the August refunding, not just at the November refunding, but also at the February refunding as well, because they are ultimately trying to balance this supply picture between bills vs coupons and this growing financing need," Swiber said. The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) recommends that bills make up 15-20% of the total marketable debt. The Treasury will release its quarterly borrowing requirement Monday afternoon, and its refunding news comes Wednesday at 0830 ET/1230 GMT. The Treasury surveyed dealers about their opinion on how some details of the program should work ahead of the August refunding.

Persons: Steven Zeng, Meghan Swiber, Swiber, Ben Jeffery, Karen Brettell, Davide Barbuscia, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Hugh Lawson Organizations: U.S . Treasury Department, Treasury, COVID, Deutsche Bank, Bank of America, BMO Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: U.S

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