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AdvertisementThe think-tank said it calculated child-raising costs in China using 2023 data from the National Bureau of Statistics. AdvertisementIn total, raising a child until they are 18 costs Chinese families an average of 538,312 yuan, or about $73,000, Yuwa said. Middle-income families in the US are projected to spend $233,610 raising a child until they are 18, per the USDA. AdvertisementNotably, the average cost of raising a child in China fell slightly compared to Yuwa's 2022 report on the same topic. The think-tank said data from 2019 showed that the average cost was $76,000, or about seven times the country's GDP per capita at the time.
Persons: , Liang Jianzhang, Huang Wenzheng, Yafu, Yuwa's, Yuwa Organizations: Service, Business, National Bureau of Statistics, Department of, Ministry of Health and Welfare Locations: China, Japan, Beijing, South Korea, Shanghai
New York CNN —US markets broke a five-week winning streak last Friday after disappointing inflation data reignited economic and interest rate-related fears on Wall Street. Then last week, two key inflation indicators for January — the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index — rose above Wall Street expectations. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said the new data showed that the Fed needs more confidence before cutting rates. I think in this case, the market isn’t necessarily telling you much about the economy’s fundamentals, the market is telling you what other market participants think. And I think that those economic fundamentals get you to the part that says, you know, it’s not not the economy.
Persons: Price, Thomas Barkin, Raphael Bostic, isn’t, Bell, Jared Bernstein, Joe Biden, I’m, they’re, It’s, it’s, Joe Weisenthal, Elisabeth Buchwald, Hanna Ziady, Liam Peach, ” Peach Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Richmond Fed, White House Council, Economic Advisers, CPI, Apple, Google, Nvidia, Microsoft, Capital, Discover Financial Services, Discover, Hamas, Gross, Israel’s, Bureau, Statistics, Capital Economics Locations: New York
London CNN —Israel’s output contracted sharply in the final three months of 2023, falling for the first time in nearly two years, as the war with Hamas takes a heavy toll on the economy. The conflict is expected to cost Israel around 255 billion shekels ($70.3 billion) by the end of 2025, equivalent to around 13% of GDP, according to the Bank of Israel. And earlier this month, Moody’s delivered Israel’s first ever credit rating downgrade, citing elevated political risk and deteriorating public finances stemming from the war. “Under a scenario of outright conflict… the negative economic impact would spread to more sectors and be longer-lasting,” Moody’s said. In 2023 as a whole, Israel’s economy grew 2%, according to the statistics office.
Persons: Liam Peach, ” Peach, Moody’s, Israel’s, , ” Moody’s, Ido Soen Organizations: London CNN, Hamas, Gross, Israel’s, Bureau, Statistics, Israel, Capital Economics, Bank of Israel Locations: Gaza, Israel, Lebanese
China's birthrate has plunged, with the number of newborns in 2023 falling by 500,000, to about 9 million. AdvertisementDecades of China's one-child policy have created a demographic nightmare for the world's second-largest economy, and millions of school teachers could soon be left without a job as birthrates tumble. If those classes don't scale back, China could see a surplus of 1.5 million primary school teachers and 370,000 middle school teachers by 2035, according to a Tuesday report from the South China Morning Post. Last year marked the second consecutive year that China's population shrank, according to the country's National Bureau of Statistics. Total primary school students, too, declined in 2022 for the first time in a decade.
Persons: China's birthrate, , it's Organizations: Service, South China Morning, country's National Bureau of Statistics, Education, China National Academy of Educational Sciences, Terry Group, Terry, UN Locations: China, Beijing, Hangzhou
“I don’t believe that you should be worried,” says Geoffrey Thomas, an aviation safety expert and editor in chief of Airline Ratings, which publishes an annual list of the safest airlines. The list of the world’s safest airlines is topped by Air New Zealand, Qantas, Virgin Australia, Etihad Airways, Qatar Airways, Emirates, All Nippon Airways, Finnair and Cathay Pacific. Charly Triballeau/AFP/Getty Images“Aviation is the safest mode of transportation,” says Anthony Brickhouse, a professor of aviation safety at Florida’s Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University. “Unfortunately, with the Japan Airlines accident, we did lose five people on the military aircraft, but everybody made it off of the civilian aircraft. Remote in probabilityDespite concerns, the Boeing 737 has a better safety record than the 747, experts say.
Persons: , Geoffrey Thomas, it’s, , Thomas, Charly Triballeau, Anthony Brickhouse, Florida’s Embry, Brickhouse, Max, we’ve, Willie Walsh, Arnold Barnett, That’s, we’re, ” Barnett, Jason Redmond, Barnett Organizations: CNN, Alaska Airlines, Max, Boeing, , Airbus, Air New Zealand, Qantas, Virgin Australia, Etihad Airways, Qatar Airways, Emirates, All Nippon Airways, Finnair, Cathay Pacific, Getty, Florida’s, Riddle Aeronautical University, US Federal Aviation Administration, National Transportation Safety Board, Japan Airlines Airbus, Tokyo Coast Guard, FAA, Japan Airlines, NTSB, Reuters, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, European Union, United Locations: AFP, Tokyo, Japan, Africa, Latin America, Asia, Australia, Canada, China, Israel, New Zealand, Norway, Switzerland, United Kingdom, United States
Chinese leader Xi Jinping said on New Year's Eve that the nation's economy had grown "more resilient and dynamic this year." Meanwhile, famed hedge fund manager and founder of Dallas-based Hayman Capital Kyle Bass said the country's heavily indebted property market has triggered a wave of defaults among public developers. That's a problem, given China's real estate market can account for as much as a fifth of the nation's GDP. "This is just like the U.S. financial crisis on steroids," Bass said, referring to China's default-ridden property market. The Institute of International Finance said Beijing has the policy capacity to push China's economy toward its growth potential and stuck to its above consensus forecast for 2024 growth at 5%, in a recent blog post.
Persons: Eswar Prasad, Mohamed El, Xi Jinping, there's, Paul Krugman, Krugman, Kristalina Georgieva, Hayman, Hayman Capital Kyle Bass, Bass, isn't Organizations: Future Publishing, CSI, China's National Bureau, Statistics, Allianz, International Monetary Fund, Nikkei, New York Times, Monetary Fund, Economic, IMF, Dallas, Hayman Capital, of International Finance Locations: Jiangsu, China, Nikkei Asia, U.S, Europe, tatters, Davos, Beijing
China's producer prices declined for a 16th month in January, while consumer prices slipped for a fourth month. CPI slipped 0.3% in December. On a monthly basis though, CPI climbed 0.3% in January from December, slightly weaker than median expectations for 0.4% growth. On a monthly basis, this translated into a 0.3% growth in January from December, NBS said. China stands as a stark outlier among the world's major economies, which are mostly battling stubbornly high inflation.
Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, NBS Locations: Beijing, reflating, China
China's deflation problem keeps getting worse
  + stars: | 2024-02-08 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
In the latest sign of the country's worsening deflation problem, fresh data showed consumer prices in China tumbled in January at the sharpest rate in 14 years. AdvertisementOn an annualized month-over-month basis, consumer prices fell 4.3%, with particular weakness in food prices. Measured year-over-year for January:Pork prices fell 17.3%Vegetable prices fell 12.7%Fruit prices fell 9.1%The producer price index, too, dropped 2.5%, while service prices climbed at 0.5% on the year, half the rate seen in December. The more consumer prices fall, the more difficult it will be for Beijing to reverse. Foreign investors have already fled Chinese markets in droves over the last year, and ongoing deflation could spell trouble for earnings of Chinese companies.
Persons: , Goldman Sachs Organizations: Service, National Bureau, Statistics, Bloomberg, Institute of International Finance Locations: China, China's, Beijing
In a letter days before the Fed’s decision Wednesday to hold interest rates steady at a 23-year high, Democratic US senators blasted the central bank for America’s housing woes. In 2021 when the Fed’s key interest rate was near zero, home-price growth soared at a historic double-digit pace, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index. Divounguy said that the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate will likely not fall below 6% this year. That way we can actually start heading in the right direction with affordability and have that be sustainable and not just a short-term interest rate phenomenon,” she said. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin delivers remarks.
Persons: Valerie Plesch, Orphe Divounguy, Freddie Mac, it’s, Fannie Mae, Divounguy, ” Daryl Fairweather, Trump, Jerome Powell, Donald Trump, Powell, David Goldman, Alexandra Ross, ” Trump, Maria Bartiromo, Joe Biden, Estee Lauder, Tyson, Raphael Bostic, Eli Lilly, Loretta Mester, Walt Disney, Adriana Kugler, Thomas Barkin, Michelle Bowman, Ralph Lauren, Armour Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Democratic, Eccles Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Getty, CNN, National Association of Realtors, Fox Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Trump, Fed, Caterpillar, Tyson Foods, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, Atlanta Fed, Toyota, UBS AG, Chipotle, Cleveland Fed, Walt, CVS, PayPal, Brands, Fox, The Carlyle, News Corporation, New York Times Company, Mattel, Spirit Airlines, US Commerce Department, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, ConocoPhillips, Unilever, Duke Energy, Expedia, Warner Music Group, Tenet Healthcare, Richmond Fed, Pepsico, Honda Locations: Washington, Washington , DC, CAVA
China's population fell for a second consecutive year as the birth rate reached a record low. AdvertisementFor the second year in a row, China's population fell. But still, the Chinese population — young people, in particular — did not bite. The law was introduced, in part, as an effort to boost the country's birth rate. This is a "global shift," Wang told BI.
Persons: , Wang Feng, Wang, BI's Huileng Tan, China's, Ethan Michelson, Michelson Organizations: Service, country's National Bureau, Statistics, University of California, Communist Party, Chinese Community Party, Ethan Michelson , Indiana University Bloomington's, East Asian, BI, Los Angeles Times Locations: country's, China, Irvine, Hangzhou, East China, Wenzhou, Ethan Michelson ,, Seoul, South Korea, Italy, Taiwan
China's ruling party introduced a "three-child policy" in 2021, welcoming families to have more than two children. A solution for China's demographic crisis likely won't come through a few policy initiatives, Wang argued. The law was introduced, in part, as an effort to boost the country's birth rate. Taiwan has so far invested $3 billion in implementing programs to get more citizens to have children, The Los Angeles Times reported. This is a "global shift," Wang told BI.
Persons: , Wang Feng, Wang, BI's Huileng Tan, China's, Ethan Michelson, Michelson Organizations: Service, country's National Bureau, Statistics, Business, University of California, Communist Party, Chinese Community Party, Ethan Michelson , Indiana University Bloomington's, East Asian, BI, Los Angeles Times Locations: country's, China, Irvine, Hangzhou, East China, Wenzhou, Ethan Michelson ,, Seoul, South Korea, Italy, Taiwan
Johannes Neudecker | Picture Alliance | Getty ImagesChina's factory activity expanded for a third-straight month in January, a private-sector survey showed on Thursday, helped by the first expansion in new export orders in seven months. Thursday's print though, extended a divergence from official data that points to the patchy growth in the world's second-largest economy and underscores the need for policy support. China's National Bureau of Statistics released data Wednesday that showed the country's official manufacturing PMI coming in at 49.2 in January, a fourth consecutive monthly contraction — compared with 49 in December. The Caixin manufacturing PMI surveys around 650 private and state-owned manufacturers that tend to be more export-oriented and located in China's coastal regions, while the official PMI surveys 3,200 companies across China. Employment in China's manufacturing sector trended down in the official survey released Wednesday as in the Caixin survey.
Persons: Johannes Neudecker, Wang Zhe, Wang Organizations: Getty, P Global, National Bureau of Statistics, Overseas, Caixin Insight Locations: China
Banknotes of Renminbi arranged for photography on July 03 2018 in Hong Kong, Hong Kong. China's factory activity contracted for a fourth consecutive month in January, underscoring the much-needed litany of policy support for the world's second-largest economy which Beijing announced last week. The official manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose slightly to 49.2 in January from 49 in December, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics released Wednesday. The official non-manufacturing managers' index rose to 50.7 in January from 50.4 in December, according to the same NBS release. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in activity, while a reading below that level points to a contraction.
Organizations: Beijing, National Bureau of Statistics, PMI Locations: Hong Kong
Washington, DC CNN —A slew of economic news this week will make it much clearer if the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in March. The Labor Department is due to release four crucial assessments of America’s job market, gauging labor demand, wage growth, productivity and hiring. Wages and the Fed on Wednesday: The day after, the Labor Department releases its Employment Cost Index for the fourth quarter, a comprehensive measure of employers’ labor costs. The US Labor Department releases December data on job openings, quits, hires and layoffs. The US Labor Department releases its Employment Cost Index for the fourth quarter.
Persons: that’s, , Christian Scherrmann, Jerome Powell, ” Michael Feroli, , ” Feroli, Powell, Alicia Wallace, Joe Brusuelas, Jerome Powell’s Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, DWS, Labor, Survey, Fed, Employers, PCE, Federal, Commerce Department, RSM, Whirlpool, Microsoft, UBS, HCA Healthcare, General Motors, Cleveland Cliffs, Mondelez International, JetBlue Airways, Global, US Labor Department, Board, National Bureau of Statistics, Novo Nordisk, Mastercard, Novartis, Boeing, ADP, Nasdaq, Nomura Holdings, Apple, Shell, Honeywell, Deutsche Bank, Clorox, Quest Diagnostics, United States Steel, Bank of England, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, Exxon Mobil, AbbVie, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, University of Michigan Locations: Washington, Marathon, Cleveland, Chevron
ZHENGZHOU, CHINA - SEPTEMBER 22: Students attend a job fair for graduates at Zhengzhou University on September 22, 2023 in Zhengzhou, Henan Province of China. (Photo by VCG/VCG via Getty Images)China's youth unemployment will likely stay elevated this year due to a lingering mismatch, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit. Even though unemployment among China's young people should dissipate starting next year — when the country's working-age population declines – the effects of high youth unemployment will remain long after that, the consultancy added. "Despite the upturn in China's labor market as a whole, the biggest improvements are concentrated in middle-aged groups and migrant workers," EIU analysts said in their China 2024 outlook report released Thursday. "In contrast, the post‑Covid recovery has not eased the slack in the youth labor market.
Organizations: Zhengzhou University, Getty, Economist Intelligence Unit, China's National Bureau of Statistics Locations: ZHENGZHOU, CHINA, Zhengzhou, Henan Province, China
SYDNEY (AP) — Thousands of Australians protested the anniversary of British colonization of their country with large crowds Friday urging for Australia Day to be moved and for a day of mourning on the holiday some call "Invasion Day." The holiday marks the arrival of 11 British ships carrying convicts at Port Jackson in present-day Sydney on Jan. 26, 1788. For many activists, the day marked the beginning of a sustained period of discrimination and expulsion of Indigenous people from their land without a treaty. Large crowds in Sydney chanted for the Australia Day date to be moved. The government had proposed the first constitutional change since 1977 as a step forward in Indigenous rights.
Persons: James Cook, resoundingly, Anthony Albanese Organizations: SYDNEY, Australia, Port Jackson, Sydney, Torres Strait Locations: Port, Sydney, Victoria, Melbourne, Australia, Asia, asia
The unrest in France is also likely tied to how some French people feel about the country’s political atmosphere more broadly. The National Rally also garnered the highest percentage support among France’s political parties in a mid-December poll. In 2022, nearly half of France’s immigrant population had been born in Africa, with the top source countries being Algeria and Morocco, according to INSEE. The French president said in December that the immigration law is “what the French wanted.” And at least one recent poll appears to echo this. And nearly three-quarters (73%) thought the law was inspired by the ideas of the National Rally party.
Persons: Emmanuel Macron, Pen, , Élisabeth Borne, Le Pen’s, Macron –, , Macron Organizations: Republicans, National, Constitutional, Ministry, People, AP, Le, National Institute of Statistics, Economic Studies, National Rally Locations: France, Europe, Germany, Western Europe, Africa, Algeria, Morocco, North Africa
Moody's Investors Service has a negative outlook for sovereign creditworthiness in Asia-Pacific this year, due to China's slower economic growth as well as tight funding and geopolitical risks. China's rebound from the Covid-19 pandemic wasn't as fast as several economists had expected at the start of 2023. In a Jan. 15 report, Moody's predicted China's real GDP growth would slow to 4% this year and next, from an average of 6% between 2014 and 2023. The credit rating agency said the slowdown in China's growth "significantly influences" APAC economies because of its strong integration in global supply chains. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, among other major international investment banks, predict China's economy to grow at a slower pace of 4.6% in 2024, down from 5.2% expected for 2023.
Persons: Moody's, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Moody's, National Bureau of Statistics Locations: Asia, Pacific
On December 22, the UN Security Council passed a resolution calling for further extended humanitarian pauses to allow more aid into Gaza. People carry some of their belongings as they walk to Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip on January 4, fleeing central Gaza. But even as foreign aid to Gaza rose in the wake of the Hamas takeover, the amount of aid fluctuates annually, OECD data shows. In 2018, the Trump administration cut about $200 million in Palestinian aid and halted contributions to UNRWA. Medicine for Israeli hostages and Palestinians entered Gaza last Wednesday after Qatar brokered a deal with Israel and Hamas.
Persons: Khan Younis, , Majdi, Fatah, Mohammed Abed, , Yara Asi, Israel, René Wildangel, Wildangel, ” Asi, Trump, Biden, Benjamin Netanyahu, , Netanyahu Organizations: CNN, United Nations, West Bank, UN Office, Humanitarian Affairs, Service, Aid, World Health Organization, UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian Refugees, Israel, Israel Defense Forces, UN, Assembly, UNRWA, IDF, UN Security, World Food, Palestinian, Statistics, World Bank, Palestine Liberation Organization, PLO, Palestinian Authority, Hamas, West Bank ., Getty, University of Central, , International Hellenic University, Amnesty, Palestinian Central Bureau, European Union, Organization for Economic Co, Development, Obama, Qatar Locations: Israel, Gaza, East Jerusalem, UN, Rafah, South Africa, Oslo Accords, AFP, Palestine, University of Central Florida, Oslo, Thessaloniki, Greece, United States, Europe, Qatar
China's working age population is shrinking
  + stars: | 2024-01-19 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Many Meituan food delivery workers are lining up to make preparations in Shanghai, China, on January 14, 2024. (Photo by Costfoto/NurPhoto via Getty Images)BEIJING — China's working age population is shrinking as a share of the total number of people in the country, according to official data released Wednesday. People ages 16 to 59 accounted for 61.3% of mainland China's population last year, down from 62% the prior year, National Bureau of Statistics data showed. A shrinking working age ratio means fewer people have to support a larger share of the population, even as the number of people in China overall declines. China's total population dropped by more than 2 million people to 1.41 billion in 2023 from the prior year.
Organizations: Getty Images, National Bureau Locations: Shanghai, China, BEIJING
The prices of a barrel of Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, and West Texas Intermediate, the US oil benchmark, have barely moved. Now, however, analysts say economic factors — weaker demand in countries such as China and Germany, ample oil and gas supply — are superseding concerns about violence in the Middle East. Al Drago/Bloomberg/Getty ImagesGlobal oil demand growth is expected to almost halve this year, the International Energy Agency said in a report Thursday. At the same time, global oil supply is forecast to hit an all-time high, driven by record output from countries including the United States and Canada, the IEA said. Nan said relatively modest demand was also helping to prevent spikes in gas prices.
Persons: Brent, , Homayoun, “ It’s, , Hope, Al Drago, That’s, Falakshahi, Xi Nan, Kpler, Wood Mackenzie, Nan Organizations: London CNN, Hamas, West Texas Intermediate, AAA, CNN, National Bureau of Statistics, Bloomberg, Getty, International Energy Agency, Organization of, Petroleum, Rystad Energy, Gas Infrastructure, LNG “ Locations: Red, Iran, Pakistan, Gaza, Ukraine, China, Germany, South Africa, Washington , DC, United States, Canada, Russia, OPEC, Europe, wean, Gas Infrastructure Europe, Africa, Qatar, United Kingdom
HONG KONG (AP) — China published youth unemployment data Wednesday for the first time since the jobless rate hit a record high in June last year, using a new method that showed an apparent improvement. China announced a 14.9% jobless rate for people between 16 and 24 in December, using the new method, which excludes students. The statistics bureau stopped publishing the politically sensitive figure last year, after it reached 21.3% in June. It said that the 16 to 24-year-old population includes some 62 million school students, over 60% of people that age. China’s overall urban unemployment rate stood at 5.1% in December, inching up slightly from 5.0% for the months of September through November.
Persons: It's, inching Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics Locations: HONG KONG, China, China’s
Read previewChina's population fell again last year – and that's a worrying sign for Beijing policymakers already grappling with deflation, a property crisis, and anemic economic growth. It's the second consecutive year that China's population has shrunk after six decades of rapid growth. Here's why dropping population numbers pose a threat to the world's second-largest economy. Worrying dataChina's population fell in 2022 for the first time since the 1960s – and Wednesday's statistics showed that the same thing happened again last year. A declining population is also bad news for real estate, which accounts for a quarter of China's economy and 70% of household wealth.
Persons: , lockdowns, They've, they'll Organizations: Service, Business, National Bureau, Statistics, World Health Organization, Apple Locations: Beijing, China, , Japan
BEIJING — China missed fourth-quarter GDP estimates on Wednesday, while it resumed reporting the unemployment rate for young people. GDP for the last three months of 2023 rose by 5.2%, according to China's National Bureau of Statistics. Excluding people still in school, the unemployment rate for young people aged 16 to 24 was 14.9%, while the rate in cities in December was 5.1%. Online retail sales of physical goods rose by 8.4%, accounting for nearly 28% of overall retail sales. Retail sales for December saw a 29% surge in jewelry and 26% increase in purchases of clothes and shoes.
Persons: Zhiwei Zhang Organizations: China Vanke Co, National Bureau of Statistics, Investment Locations: China, Hefei, BEIJING
Hong Kong CNN —China’s population shrank for the second year in a row in 2023, marking a deepening of a demographic challenge set to have significant implications on the world’s second largest economy. The population fell in 2023 to 1.409 billion, down some 2.08 million people from the previous year, China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced Wednesday. The NBS confirmed that China’s economy grew by 5.2% last year, compared to a government target of around 5%. While this expansion marks a significant pick-up over 2022, when China’s economy grew by just 3%, it is still one of the country’s worst economic performances in over three decades. China’s birth rate also dropped to a new record low of 6.39 births per 1,000 people, down from 6.77 a year earlier and the lowest level since the founding of Communist China in 1949.
Persons: Mao Zedong’s Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, NBS, Communist Locations: China, Hong Kong, Communist China, India, Beijing
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