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A real estate construction site in Wanxiang City, Huai 'an City, East China's Jiangsu province, May 17, 2024. Future Publishing | Future Publishing | Getty ImagesBEIJING — China's sweeping moves on Friday to increase support for real estate will take time to show results, analysts said. Despite the news, S&P is still sticking to its base case from earlier in the month that China's property market is likely still "searching for a bottom," Edward Chan, director, corporate ratings, said during the firm's webinar on Monday. But he pointed out that for real estate to see significant stabilization, homebuyers' demand and confidence will need to improve after a market downturn of nearly three years. "We believe Beijing is headed in the right direction with regard to ending the epic housing crisis," Nomura's Chief China Economist Ting Lu said in a report Monday.
Persons: Huai, Edward Chan, Ting, Nomura, Goldman Sachs, Chief China Economist Hui Shan, Ting Lu, P's Chan Organizations: Future Publishing, Getty, BEIJING, Chief China Economist, China Locations: Wanxiang City, City, East China's Jiangsu, Hong Kong, Beijing, Ting Lu, China
China announced "historic" steps to stabilize the crisis-hit property sector on May 17, 2024, allowing local governments to buy "some" apartments, relaxing mortgage rules and pledging to deliver unfinished homes. These and other measures announced Friday marked Beijing's latest efforts to address issues in the massive real estate sector. The real estate companies can then use funds earned from those sales to complete construction on other apartments, the central bank said. Pre-sold, unfinished homesFor years, many apartments in China tended to be sold before construction was finished. Nomura estimated last year there were around 20 million such pre-sold, unfinished apartments in China.
Persons: Zhu Ning, Tao Ling, Xiao Yuanqi, Larry Hu, Dong Jianguo, Lifeng, Zhu, Nomura Organizations: China, Nurphoto, Getty, Tsinghua University, People's Bank of China, National Financial Regulatory, Macquarie, CNBC, of Housing, Housing, Future Publishing Locations: BEIJING, Wanxiang City, Huai'an City, East China's Jiangsu, China
Technical signals are indicating the dramatic meme stock rally , driven by a short squeeze, could soon come to a painful end, according to Wolfe Research's Rob Ginsberg. A short squeeze occurs when investors who had bet against a stock by borrowing shares and hoping to buy them back later at a lower price luck out. This then pushes the stock price higher. SunPower , another short squeeze candidate, dropped 19% Wednesday before the open, after surging 60% Tuesday. Wolfe Research said an index it manages with Nomura that measures stocks with high short interest this week "rallied into a lower high at long-term resistance."
Persons: Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, Nomura, Michael Bloom Organizations: GameStop, AMC, Wolfe Research
Two U.S.-listed ETFs — the SPDR S & P Metals & Mining ETF and VanEck Steel ETF — and the Japan-listed NEXT NOTES Japan Equity High Beta Select 30 ETF have each risen more than 10% every year since 2019. SPDR S & P Metals & Mining ETF The SPDR S & P Metals & Mining ETF (ticker: XME) gives investors broad exposure to the metals and mining segment. The VanEck fund has outperformed the S & P 500 in four of the past five years. NEXT NOTES Japan Equity High Beta Select 30 The NEXT NOTES Japan Equity High Beta Select 30 ETF (ticker: 2068.T-JP) is a smart beta ETF. High beta stocks react with more volatility than the rest of the market.
Persons: SPDR, It's Organizations: CNBC, P Metals, Mining, VanEck Steel, , Japan, CNBC Pro, Mining ETF, VanEck, NEXT, Nomura Japan Equity Locations: U.S, Japan
As is common in China, the apartment complex in Tianjin sold the units before they were completed. Their concerns are just one example of the wider challenges that persist in pockets of China's property sector. Following early efforts to recoup their money or to garner information about their property purchases, a few buyers said police visited their homes, sometimes in the middle of the night. "I feel like I've been tricked this whole time," one buyer said in Mandarin, translated by CNBC. In all, Nomura estimated late last year that there are around 20 million unconstructed and delayed pre-sold homes in China.
Persons: Wu Qing, Fred Dufour, I've, Dan Wang, Evergrande, Nomura Organizations: Afp, Getty, BEIJING, CNBC, Hang Seng Bank Locations: Tianjin, Beijing, China
Japanese technology investor SoftBank Group is expected to slip back into the red when it reports earnings on Monday despite technology stocks including Arm Holdings its core asset, performing well over the quarter. Analysts and investors are also eagerly awaiting clues about new growth investments as SoftBank has ample liquidity and can monetize its huge holding in Arm. The initial public offering (IPO) market remained subdued, leaving analysts uncertain of the monetization prospects for SoftBank's portfolio of unlisted tech startups. But while the Arm stake may make possible an investment on this scale, its dominance within SoftBank's portfolio poses a risk should market sentiment turn, hitting SoftBank's value and fundraising capacity. Morningstar analyst Javier Correonero estimates a fair value for Arm of $57 per share, compared to its recent trading range around $100 per share.
Persons: SoftBank, Arm's, DiDi, Shogo Tono, Javier Correonero Organizations: SoftBank, Arm Holdings, Grab Holdings, LSEG, Nomura Securities, Nvidia, Morningstar Locations: Britain, Coupang
The increase follows falls of 0.3% in the fourth quarter and 0.1% in the third quarter of last year. The Bank of England now expects UK GDP to expand by 0.5% this year, double the pace forecast in February, according to projections published Thursday. A growing economy could, however, delay the interest rate cuts widely expected this year. “Stronger GDP growth raises the risk of stronger demand pressures on inflation,” analysts at Nomura wrote in a note, adding that Friday’s GDP release “casts doubt” over a cut in June. Annual UK inflation came in at 3.2% last month, a sharp slowdown from a rate above 10% about a year ago.
Persons: Rishi Sunak, Sunak, Nomura, , Andrew Bailey, Bailey Organizations: London CNN, Gross, Office, National Statistics, Conservative Party, Labour Party, The Bank of England, P Global . Service, Bank of England Locations: United Kingdom
China stocks have staged such a strong rally after a protracted slump for the past few years that they're beating even the S & P 500 so far this year. The MSCI China index, which includes the mainland A-shares, Hong Kong-listed shares and U.S.-listed China names, has jumped around 9%, while the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF is up around 13%. Most analysts said whether the rally can be sustained will largely depend on China policy. How to play China Though most were bullish on China stocks, they would be selective in stock-picking. They include: SPDR S & P China ETF iShares MSCI China A ETF Global X MSCI China Consumer Disc ETF iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF — CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
Persons: Bernstein, it's, , Goldman Sachs, Kevin Liu, CICC, Nomura's, Goldman, Kweichow, Ping, Morningstar, Michael Bloom Organizations: U.S, CSI China, Investors, CICC Research, CNBC, BYD, SAIC, Changan Automobile, Energy, Anhui, Cement, JPMorgan, Kuaishou, Ping An Insurance, China Merchants Bank, Hong, China, iShares, China Consumer Locations: China, Hong Kong
CNBC's Inside India newsletter: Will AI make or break India?
  + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +9 min
But one that could foreshadow India's growth story. Can Teleperformance's stock plunge be the canary in the coal mine for what is likely to happen to India because of AI? But it's likely to be a blip for India's growth trajectory, given the macro forces at play. Besides creating jobs that are less likely to be immediately disrupted by AI, India could also be a net beneficiary of artificial intelligence. The Indian stock market indexes, Sensex and Nifty 50 , are heading for a positive week again — up by 1% and 1.2%, respectively.
Persons: Findlay Kember, Klarna, ChatGPT, K Krithivasan, Krithivasan, Narendra Modi, It's, Shilan Shah, Goldman Sachs, Vinay Dwivedi, Ashok Gulati, Nomura, League Pickleball, Karine Jean, Pierre, Jerome Powell, Raghuram Rajan, Ashish Jain, CNBC's Ayushi Jindal Organizations: AFP, Getty, India's Tata Consultancy Services, Financial Times, TCS, World Bank, International Monetary Fund, University of Oxford, Capital Economics, Investment, Nomura, Qualcomm, Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing, UPI, India, Commission, Agricultural, United Pickleball Association, Global Sports, PPA, League, Washington Post, White, U.S ., Federal, CNBC, Reserve Bank of India, University of Chicago Booth School of Business Locations: Swedish, Paris, India, Chennai, U.S, Europe, China, Singapore, South Korea, Canada, United States
Hong Kong stocks are back from the dead. Here’s why
  + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
Hong Kong CNN —Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng Index surged more than 7% in April as the best-performing major index in the world. The valuation of Hong Kong stocks has also become more “compelling” relative to the rest of the Asian region after the pullback last year, said Zhikai Chen, head of Asian equities at BNP Paribas Asset Management. He added that there is a shift in investors’ sentiments as Chinese economic data turned more positive. Innes said global investors are currently “underweight” in Chinese markets, including Hong Kong, because of geopolitical tensions and concerns surrounding potential fallout from the upcoming US elections. Stock exchange data showed that southbound investors (meaning investment from mainland China into Hong Kong) have bought nearly $20 billion of Hong Kong-listed stocks in March and the first three weeks of April on a net basis.
Persons: , Kelly Chung, Zhikai Chen, Stephen Innes, David Chao, Nomura, Xiaomei Chen, Angelina Lai, Innes, Kong, BNP Paribus Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Hong, Value Partners, BNP, Management, P Global, PMI, Kong's, Reuters, US, People’s Bank of, HK, Locations: China, Hong Kong, United States, Beijing, India, James’s, People’s Bank of China
Optimism in India's growth shows little signs of slowing, but policy continuity will be crucial if it wants to see strong growth in the next five years, Rob Subbaraman, Nomura's chief economist and head of global markets research Asia ex-Japan, said. India's elections are underway and Modi is widely expected to win a strong mandate for a third term in office. That projection is much higher than Nomura's growth outlook for China (3.9%), Singapore (2.5%) and South Korea (1.8%) in the same period. "With China's economy slowing, India is likely to be the fastest growing Asian economy this decade," Nomura said in a recent note. "Irrespective of the election outcome, policy continuity and a focus on macroeconomic stability are important growth underpinnings," the bank's analysts added.
Persons: Rob Subbaraman, Modi, Subbaraman, Nomura Organizations: Modi, CNBC, Bharatiya Janata Party Locations: Asia, Japan, China, Singapore, South Korea, India
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIt's the perfect time for the BOJ's 'slow and patient' approach to monetary policy: NomuraGareth Nicholson of Nomura says the BOJ's "two steps forward, one step back" approach to monetary policy could be positive for the Japanese equity market.
Persons: Nomura Gareth Nicholson, Nomura
Interest rates are currently nestled at a 23-year high after the Fed launched an aggressive rate-hiking campaign two years ago. Inflation is down considerably from a four-decade peak reached in the summer of 2022, but recent inflation reports have shown persistent price pressures in services and housing. First rate cut in the summer? Wall Street already wasn’t betting on a rate cut in May, but some analysts are estimating the first cut could come some time in the summer. Analysts at Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Nomura are estimating a first rate cut in July.
Persons: Jerome Powell, , Powell, , ” Quincy Krosby, don’t, hasn’t, Goldman Sachs, Philip Jefferson Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal, Wilson, Fed, Congress, LPL, Atlanta Fed, Goldman, JPMorgan, Nomura, Bank of America, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, Locations: Wells Fargo, rebalance
Jack Ma is praising Alibaba. Wall Street is more cautious
  + stars: | 2024-04-14 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
Alibaba shares got a boost last week from news founder Jack Ma is pleased with the company's turnaround so far. They cut their price target to $100 a share, down from $105 previously, while maintaining an overweight rating. Eddie Wu became CEO of Alibaba in September, and is also acting head of the cloud business. They cut their price target by $1 to $105 a share and maintained their buy rating. They have a price target of $85, and, in contrast to the many buy ratings, rate the stock equal weight.
Persons: Jack Ma, Joe Tsai, Ma, Alex Yao, Tsai, Nicolai Tangen, We've, Eddie Wu, Trudy Dai, Daniel Zhang, Kenneth Fong, Douyin, Nomura, Doubao, Ernie, Qianwen, monetization, Morgan Stanley, Gary Yu, — CNBC's Michael Bloom, Arjun Kharpal Organizations: CNBC, Wall Street, JPMorgan, Norges Bank Investment, Alibaba, Commerce, UBS, PDD Holdings, Norges Bank Investment Management Locations: China, U.S, Taobao, BABA
Investors are stepping up bets against a broad collection of stocks as the broader market gets increasingly volatile following another hotter-than-expected March inflation report . Stocks sold off and Treasury yields jumped Wednesday when inflation was shown to be under less control than investors had counted on. Unfortunately, the latest economic numbers suggest no need for the Federal Reserve to take its foot off the interest rate brakes. B. Riley Financial is also seeing large short interest, amounting to almost 76% of its float. Other stocks with high short interest include ImmunityBio and Sunnova Energy.
Persons: Stocks, SunPower, Riley Organizations: Treasury, Bank of America, BMO Capital Markets, CNBC, Federal Reserve, Riley, Riley Financial, Securities and Exchange Commission, Nomura, Sunnova Energy
Pictured here is a real estate project under construction in Huai 'an city, Jiangsu province, China, on April 8, 2024. BEIJING — China needs to convince people that home prices are on their way up in order for economic activity to pick up, Richard Koo, chief economist at Nomura Research Institute, told CNBC's Steve Sedgwick last week. In other words, as Koo warned last year, China may be entering a "balance sheet recession," similar to what Japan experienced during its economic slump. "For them to come back and borrow money, we need a narrative that says, okay, this is the bottom of the prices, the prices will start going up from this point onwards," Koo said. Koo and other analysts have pointed out that in China's policy-driven economy, house prices have not fallen as much as expected given declines in other aspects of the property market.
Persons: Huai, Richard Koo, CNBC's Steve Sedgwick, Goldman Sachs, Koo, " Koo Organizations: Nomura Research Institute, Japan Locations: Jiangsu province, China, BEIJING
Stocks ended Monday little changed as another uptick in interest rates kept investors from making big moves ahead of key U.S. inflation data. March's CPI number is also being closely watched to gauge when the central bank will begin to lower interest rates. The S&P 500 declined nearly 1% during the period, its biggest weekly loss since early January. The market did finish the week on a positive note, however, after a stronger-than-expected jobs report Friday. The surprising gain in payrolls gave investors hope that a strong economy could continue to support corporate earnings growth, even if it means higher interest rates for longer.
Persons: Stocks, Elon Musk, Dow Jones, Matt Rowe, Dow Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Treasury, Federal, Nomura Capital Management Locations: payrolls
The Economic Paradox of the Biden Presidency
  + stars: | 2024-04-06 | by ( Bernhard Warner | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
The paradox is that there is no guarantee that the jobs boom will keep Biden in the White House beyond November, completely scrambling the adage “It’s the economy, stupid” that wins elections. For 39 straight months, employers have added jobs despite many predictions that the United States was destined for a recession. The latest data released Friday overshot analysts’ expectations by a huge margin, with employers adding 303,000 jobs. That takes the tally over the past 12 months to more than 2.8 million hires — and economists expect the upward course to continue. “We do think there’s still room for growth” into next year, Jeremy Schwartz, a senior U.S. economist at Nomura, told DealBook.
Persons: Biden, Port, , Jeremy Schwartz, DealBook Organizations: Labor, Nomura Locations: U.S, White, United States, Ukraine, Gaza, Panama, Red Sea, Port of Baltimore
Decades of trade deficits and a strong dollar created too many "losers" in the U.S. economy who turned to Donald Trump's protectionist policies, according to Richard Koo, chief economist at the Nomura Research Institute — and those conditions remain. Trump's "America First" economic policies led his administration to institute a slew of trade tariffs on China, Mexico, the European Union and others, including slapping 25% duties on imported steel and aluminum. These policies have drawn widespread criticism from economists, who argue that tariffs are counterproductive, as they make imported goods more expensive for the average American. "When we studied economics and free trade, in particular, we were taught...that free trade always creates both winners and losers in the same economy, but the gain that winners get is always greater than the loss of the losers, so the society as a whole always gains. So that's why the free trade is good," he noted.
Persons: Donald Trump, Jonathan Diller, Donald Trump's, Richard Koo, Trump, Steve Sedgwick, Koo Organizations: U.S, New York City Police Department, NYPD, Nomura Research Institute, European Union, Republican Locations: New, Rockaway, Queens, Massapequa Park , New York, U.S, China, Mexico
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEconomist explains how the exchange rate and 'Wall Street types' enabled Trump's riseRichard Koo, chief economist at the Nomura Research Institute, explains how free trade and a strong dollar created the conditions for Donald Trump's 2016 election win, and why those issues haven't gone away.
Persons: Richard Koo, Donald Trump's, haven't Organizations: Nomura Research Institute
This could create a "China shock 2.0" that impacts other economies around the world. AdvertisementThis is just one of the industries the world is bracing for in the next phase of the "China shock." What happened in China shock 1.0? How Beijing could be creating China shock 2.0Now, China is targeting three new strategic industries that the rest of the world is also eyeing. What are the US and the rest of the world doing about China shock 2.0?
Persons: , Xi, David H, Autor, David Dorn, Gordon H, Hanson, Rajiv Biswas, who's, Biswas, keener, Janet Yellen, Yellen, it's, Wang Wenbin, Wang, Nomura Organizations: Service, Beijing, OECD, European Union, Department of Energy, Treasury, European Commission, EU, Act, Wall Street, Bloomberg Locations: China, EU, Beijing, Communist China, Georgia, Southeast Asia, Africa, Latin America
"A fundamentally overbuilt real estate industry needs to be addressed — and quickly," he said in the report, which counts Changchun Hua, KKR's chief economist for Greater China, among the co-authors. Real estate and related sectors once accounted for about one fifth or more of China's economy, depending on the breadth of analysts' calculations. Based on comparisons to housing corrections in the U.S., Japan and Spain, China's "housing market correction may be just halfway complete" in terms of its depth, the KKR report said. watch nowWhile KKR's report didn't provide much detail on expectations for specific real estate policy, the authors said more action by Beijing to improve China's real estate sector "could materially shift investor perception." Chinese officials have said the real estate sector remains in a period of adjustment, while Beijing shifts its emphasis toward manufacturing and what it considers "high-quality development."
Persons: Henry H, McVey, " McVey, Hong, Nomura Organizations: West Coast New, Nurphoto, Getty, BEIJING, KKR, Authorities, Housing Locations: West, Qingdao, East China's Shandong, China, Changchun Hua, Greater China, U.S, Japan, Spain, Beijing, China's
But Japan's economy — the long-unconscious patient — recently started to wiggle its toe. The country's stock market is ripping; the Nikkei recently exceeded the all-time highs it set 34 years ago. Now, Koo says, Chinese academics and policymakers are flocking to Japan to glean some kind of wisdom from the country's experience. Advertisement"This has made Japan attractive for foreign investors, and the stock market has done well," Koo said. Even without a currency war with Beijing, the world is building defenses against another wave of Chinese goods.
Persons: , Goldman Sachs, there's, Nomura, Richard Koo, Koo, Shinzo Abe, Japan's, What's, it's, we're, haven't, Xi Jinping, doesn't, Xi, we've, Brasília Organizations: Nikkei, Goldman, Bank of Japan, Corporations, International Monetary Fund, Japan, Peterson Institute, European Union, China Locations: East Asia, China, Japan, Real, Tokyo, Beijing, Brussels, Brasília, American, Washington, Brazil, Turkey
He outlined three recent events that give him cause for concern: Cohere valuation The first is that generative AI company Cohere is reportedly on track to raise funds at a $5 billion valuation. "Another red flag was Microsoft's ability to hire the CEO and 70 staff from the AI start-up Inflection AI," he said. Amazon investment Emphasizing the "FOMO effect" around AI, Windsor noted that even tech giant Amazon isn't immune. Amazon's largest-ever investment will see it continue to pump money into the generative AI start-up, which has a chatbot Claude that competes with OpenAI 's ChatGPT. He added that he already owns chip stock Qualcomm , which is in a "very good position to benefit as generative AI starts to be implemented at the edge."
Persons: Richard Windsor, Cohere, Windsor, Martin Kon, Claude, OpenAI, Stocks, , Kate Rooney Organizations: Radio Free Mobile, Mar, CNBC, Nvidia, Google, Windsor, Nomura Securities, Microsoft, Qualcomm Locations: Amazon's
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNomura: there is 'high chance' for the Japanese government to intervene if dollar-yen surpasses 152Yujiro Goto of Nomura discusses the change in rhetoric during Japan's three finance parties meeting, and possibility for intervention as the yen continues to weaken against the dollar.
Persons: Goto, Nomura Organizations: Email Nomura
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