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☆ Corporations are keeping food expensive because they can
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

To be sure, food manufacturers have to factor in costs of labor and transportation, which remain elevated compared with a few years ago. Anyway, it isn’t just food companies taking advantage of the inflationary moment. Many food companies are forecasting that they might slow down or pause price increases — but not lower them, Danielle explains. But [companies] have, I think, taken price increases that exceed that,” said Mark Lang, an associate professor of marketing at the University of Tampa who specializes in food marketing. Lower prices could, for example, make people think food quality has gone down — or make them think they were paying too much in the first place.

The case for falling rentSomething strange is happening in the apartment market. More than 971,000 apartment units were under construction across the US at the end of 2022, the second-largest number on record. There's only so much people are willing to pay,'" said Jon Leckie, a researcher for Rent, a platform that helps landlords market their properties. For now, though, the wave of supply that's already underway should keep rents in check over the next couple of years. Now, as landlords shift their focus from jacking up rents to filling up units, renters can once again look ahead to better days.

☆ Analysis: With record diversity on their boards, Fed bank chiefs see lower chances of policy error
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( Ann Saphir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

Fed bank directors generally stay out of the limelight, but many U.S. central bankers view them as a critical resource. "I think the probabilities are far higher of achieving that gentle transition, that smoother transition," San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told Reuters in an interview. This year, of the 108 spots on the 12 Fed bank boards, 44% are filled by women, and 41% by people of color, a review of the data shows. Still, a majority of the Fed's economists are white men, as are its top two monetary policymakers: Powell and New York Fed President John Williams. Hispanics and Latinos, Menendez notes, are a fast-growing segment of the population but are underrepresented at the Fed at all levels, including on Fed bank boards.

☆ Pakistan finance secretary sees IMF staff level talks wrapping up this week
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-21 | by ( Asif Shahzad | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] Men reach out to buy subsidised flour sacks from a truck in Karachi, Pakistan January 10, 2023. We expect to conclude the consultations soon, even within the week," Hamed Yaqoob Sheikh, the top official in the finance ministry, told Reuters. The staff level agreement would need approval from the IMF's board before the funds can be released. Pakistan has taken steps, such as raising more than 170 billion Pakistani rupees ($648 million) through a supplementary finance bill passed by the parliament on Monday. The IMF funds are critical for the $350 billion South Asian economy, which is facing a severe balance of payments crisis.

☆ U.S. household debt jumps to $16.90 trillion
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Lindsay Dunsmuir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Feb 16 (Reuters) - U.S. household debt jumped to a record $16.90 trillion from October through December last year, the largest quarterly increase in 20 years, as mortgage and credit card balances surged amid high inflation and rising interest rates, a Federal Reserve report showed on Thursday. Household debt, which rose by $394 billion last quarter, is now $2.75 trillion higher than just before the COVID-19 pandemic began while the increase in credit card balances last December from one year prior was the largest since records began in 1999, the New York Fed's quarterly household debt report also said. Mortgage debt increased by $254 billion to $11.92 trillion at the end of December, according to the report, while mortgage originations fell to $498 billion, representing a return to levels last seen in 2019. Meanwhile credit card balances increased by $61 billion in the fourth quarter while auto loan balances rose by $28 billion, the report said. However, younger borrowers appear to be struggling more to make repayments for both credit card and auto loans.

☆ America isn’t quitting gas guzzlers yet
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-03 | by ( Jonathan Guilford | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Ford missed its profit guidance by $1.1 billion, it said on Thursday night. It was bad enough that boss Jim Farley admitted to leaving “$2 billion in profits on the table” by mismanaging costs and supply. With EV sales under 4% of U.S. volume for both companies, the jump in profit from pricing is coming from combustion-engine sales. Detroit-based peer Ford Motor reported revenue of $44 billion for its fourth quarter on Feb. 2, 9% higher than analyst estimates. However, it recorded $10.4 billion of adjusted operating profit for the full year, below guidance of $11.5 billion.

"It's going to take some time" for disinflation to spread through the economy, Powell said in a news conference following the Fed's latest quarter-point interest rate increase. He said he expects a couple more rate hikes still to go, and, "given our outlook, I just I don't see us cutting rates this year." Rate cuts, they expect, will start in September - a view Powell said Wednesday is driven by the expectation of fast-receding inflation. Since the 1990s, the interlude between rate hikes and rate cuts has varied from as long as 18 months in 1997-1998 to as short as five months in 1995. The Fed, Powell said Wednesday, cannot risk doing too little.

☆ Swimming in cash, Chevron plans a $75 billion slap in the face to drivers
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

All of that helped make Chevron the top-performing Dow stock of last year, with shares surging more than 50%. To be clear: It’s not that Chevron, or any of its peers, did anything special to earn their windfall profits last year. Instead, Chevron is buying $75 billion worth of its own shares, and jacking up its quarterly shareholder dividend. Of course, Chevron and other US oil producers, including Exxon Mobil, are putting some money into new energy projects this year. That was far less than the $6.3 billion that Union Pacific spent repurchasing shares of stock.

☆ Elon Musk made sure the jury knew that short-sellers weren't 'a seller of small stature' during the Tesla shareholder trial
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( Samantha Delouya | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Elon Musk joked that short seller does not stand for "seller of small stature" during his testimony in a trial on Friday. The trial was due to a shareholder lawsuit that claimed Musk manipulated Tesla's stock price via a 2018 tweet. When asked by attorney Nicholas Porritt whether short sellers were an issue for Tesla as a public company, Musk replied, "I think most people don't know what short seller means. Musk has long been critical of short sellers, who are investors who bet that a company's stock will fall. In 2020, as Tesla's stock was rising, Musk sold red satin "short shorts" on the EV-maker's website, seemingly to mock the company's many short sellers.

☆ Here are Cramer's pros and cons on the state of the market in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Here's what I come up with when I do that for the stock market and broader economy in 2023. There are a lot more pros than cons. That's a cushy seat on the sidelines and it's hard to get those people back into the equities market. But we have so many strong companies that the layoffs simply haven't been significant. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.

☆ Swedish inflation runs red hot in December, raising pressure on Riksbank
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( Johan Ahlander | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Analysts in a Reuters poll had forecast headline inflation of 9.9% while the Riksbank saw annual price increases running at 9.1% in its most recent forecast in November. The central bank targets 2 percent CPIF inflation. "This means that headline inflation will probably be close to the Riksbank's forecast again already in January. Central banks around the world have reacted sharply to soaring inflation, jacking up interest rates and squeezing mortgage borrowers. CPI inflation was 2.1 percent on the month and 12.3 percent on the year.

☆ Disney is rolling back unpopular price hikes at its theme parks that were made under former CEO Bob Chapek
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-11 | by ( Samantha Delouya | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Disney is revising many of the unpopular theme park policies made under former CEO Bob Chapek. Current CEO Bob Iger reportedly complained to friends at length about theme park price hikes done under Chapek. A former parks executive himself, Bob Chapek angered many of Disney's most passionate theme park fans by jacking up prices and axing free services at the company's theme parks while CEO. "He's killing the soul of the company," Iger reportedly said. During Chapek's less-than-3-year stint as Disney CEO, he angered many of the company's most diehard fans: annual theme park pass holders.

☆ Dollar General, Family Dollar, and Dollar Tree are taking over the US with more new stores than any other retailer — and it reveals a shift in how Americans are shopping
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-03 | by ( Ben Tobin | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Dollar General announced more than 1,000 store openings in 2022, per company Coresight Research. Other companies that opened many stores in 2022 include Aldi, Ross Dress For Less, and Five Below. And discount stores have reaped the benefits: Dollar General's stock soared to an all-time high in November 2022, for example. With so many people looking to save money, discount stores led the pack for retailers in opening new locations next year. Dollar General — 1,024 storesDollar General.

☆ Here's how the U.S. economy could escape a recession in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +12 min

The U.S. economy heads into 2023 facing what might be the most anticipated recession in history. That basically means some parts of the economy will feel like they're in a recession while others won't. "Some areas of the economy may not feel like they actually are in recession. "For certain parts of the economy, it will feel like a very deep recession. For other parts, it will feel like a healthy growth economy, particularly in the parts of the economy where we see strong demand," she said.

☆ Why everyone thinks a recession is coming in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-23 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

"Historically, when you have high inflation, and the Fed is jacking up interest rates to quell inflation, that results in a downturn or recession," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. When inflation picks up and the Fed responds by pushing up interest rates, the economy ultimately caves under the weight of higher interest rates." The central bank helped stimulate lending by taking interest rates to zero, and boosted market liquidity by adding trillions of dollars in assets to its balance sheet. It is now unwinding that balance sheet, and has rapidly raised interest rates from zero in March - to a range of 4.25% to 4.5% this month. The Federal Reserve's latest economic projections show the economy growing at a pace of 0.5% in 2023, but it does not forecast a recession.

☆ Why America’s economy remains surprisingly strong – but you don’t realize it
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-22 | by ( Christine Romans | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

New York CNN Business —Each week brings head-scratching contradictory news about the economy. This past week was no different, with a batch of economic reports showing that — despite the recession talk — the US economy shows remarkable resilience. Yes, the economy is strong. “The labor market is incredibly strong again,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in a speech last month. That means the next year will no question be a challenge as all that tightening continues to work its way through the economy.

☆ Mortgage shocks and a China-led inflation spike are among the top 5 global risks of 2023, according to Charles Schwab
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Mortgage shocks and re-acceleration of inflation are among the top global risks for markets in 2023. In no particular order, here are Schwab's top five global risks in 2023:1. Central banks overtightenThe Fed, the ECB and the Bank of England last week downsized their latest rate increases to 50 basis points each. "However, major central banks are making it clear they aren't finished, despite stepping down the aggressive pace of rate hikes," said Kleintop. Ukraine war broadensKleintop said investors appear to be pricing expectations of the intensity of the Ukraine war subsiding and perhaps moving towards a negotiated resolution.

There's a reason investors are warned not to fight the Fed, but sometimes they still need to learn the hard way. When the second most powerful central bank in the world is standing shoulder to shoulder with the Fed too, markets are bound to get a bloody nose. And this is the economy into which central banks around the world are still jacking up interest rates? Annual core CPI inflation is expected to inch up to 3.7% in November from 3.6% in October, marking a fresh 41-year high. Will there be a Santa rally, even a mini one, in the last week before Christmas?

☆ Billionaire real estate investor Sam Zell says don't take too much comfort in declining mortgage costs, and the Fed will keep hiking rates close to 6%
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed will need to rate interest rates closer to 6% to meaningfully ease inflationary pressures, said legendary property investor Sam Zell. A "shocking event" was mortgage rates more than doubling this year, the billionaire told Fox Business. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit a 21-year high of 7.16% in late October, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. "In a very, very short period of time … less than 90 days, mortgage rates doubled. I wouldn't take too much comfort from the fact that mortgage rates have come down."

☆ The ‘yes, but’ economy. Yes, we’re worried about recession — but the economy remains resilient
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( Christine Romans | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

New York CNN Business —Each week brings head-scratching contradictory news about the economy. Tthis past week was no different, with a batch of economic reports showing that — despite the recession talk — the US economy shows remarkable resilience. Yes, the economy is strong. Yes, economists are worried about a recession, but the job market is incredibly tight with more than 10 million open jobs and 1.7 jobs available for anyone who’s searching for one (or looking to job hop). That means the next year will no question be a challenge as all that tightening continues to work its way through the economy.

☆ It's time for investors to sell any rally in stocks with job losses set to shock markets in 2023, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Sell stock rallies ahead of the likely recession shock for Main Street consumer sentiment in 2023, Bank of America said Friday. Job losses next year will shock consumers, as inflation did in 2022, analysts predicted. For now, the labor market still looks strong, with the addition of 263,000 jobs in November. Strength in the labor market was on display Friday with the November nonfarm payrolls report. Bank of America said it already sees signs of the labor market softening, with "small business jobs hard to fill (correlates with Fed funds) & peak in Atlanta Fed wage tracker," it said.

☆ The window is closing on corporate 'greedflation.' It's another sign that inflation is cooling off.
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-24 | by ( Jacob Zinkula | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

"US profit margins surged after the recession. "Greedflation" — the idea that companies are using inflation as an excuse to raise prices and boost profits — could be part of the explanation. But they have also taken advantage of circumstances to expand profit margins," said UBS Chief Economist Paul Donovan. To what extent soaring corporate profits are to blame for high inflation remains uncertain, but as inflation slows down, the negative CEO sentiment suggests some companies' profits are set to fall as well. In September, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard said retailers' profit margins "have risen significantly more than the average hourly wage that retailers pay workers."

☆ Everyone from the vet to the barber is hiking prices. And there’s no relief in sight
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

And that’s exactly where inflation can get “sticky,” meaning once prices for services rise they tend to remain at those levels for some time. “When you have strong price pressures in the services sector, they’re likely to last longer,” Nicaj said. That’s the risk that you also take as a business raising prices, because you may lose clients.”To Ryczko, it’s a strategic balancing act. Courtesy Genora Boykins and Sharon Owens“I don’t know of any goods that we are utilizing that haven’t increased in cost,” Boykins said. “Even if it doesn’t necessarily turn around, at least you don’t want [prices] to continue to escalate month after month after month.”

☆ Here's what Bob Iger's return as Disney CEO means for the company's theme parks
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-21 | by ( Samantha Delouya | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Bob Chapek's tenure as Disney CEO abruptly ended, and Bob Iger will resume the role. A former Parks exec, Chapek angered many theme park fans by jacking up prices and axing free services. Chapek's time at Disney was marked by criticism of his handling of Disney's theme parks and park employees, and many Disney fans took to social media to celebrate Iger's return. He expanded the company's theme park offerings – opening an Avatar world, Toy Story Land, Star Wars: Galaxy's Edge, and Shanghai Disneyland – all while keeping many services comparatively low-cost or free. Not all Disney watchers believe Iger will radically change the direction Chapek had led Disney's theme parks, though.

☆ A top-performing fund manager who warned of a huge collapse for stocks 6 months ago shares why he changed his tune and became bullish — and where he's investing now
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-18 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Salem Abraham, whose fund is in the top 9% of its category in 2022, is now bullish on stocks. But according to the manager of the Abraham Fortress Fund (FORTX), which is in the top 9% of its category in 2022, those worries are overblown. However, now that inflation is slowing down it would be a mistake for the Fed to raise interest rates too far, Abraham said. That explains why Argentina, which has struggled with hyperinflation for years, has seen its stock market grow instead of collapsing under the weight of higher prices, Abraham said. "The game of interest rates is run by central bankers.

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