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Europe’s major central banks raised their key interest rates by 0.5 percentage point but diverged from the Federal Reserve and each other on their likely next moves, reflecting economic uncertainty amid uneven growth and inflation in the region and the rapid reopening of China’s economy. The European Central Bank on Thursday raised its key rate to 2.5%, its fifth large increase in a row, and signaled it would enact another half-point rate increase in March. That leaves the ECB some way behind the Fed, which raised rates to 4.5% to 4.75% on Wednesday, and the Bank of England, which increased rates by a half percentage point to 4% earlier Thursday.

☆ Eurozone’s Economy Outpaced China and U.S. in 2022
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Paul Hannon | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

The eurozone economy grew faster than China and the U.S. last year, underlining how the fading Covid-19 pandemic continues to scramble traditional patterns of global growth. Figures released by the European Union’s statistics agency Tuesday showed the currency- area’s economy grew at an annualized rate of 0.5% as higher energy costs weighed on household spending. This translated into 3.5% growth in gross domestic product for 2022 as a whole, a faster rate than seen in either China or the U.S.

☆ U.S. Economy Slows, but Europe’s Picks Up, Raising Hopes World Will Avoid Recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( David Harrison | Paul Hannon | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Consumer confidence in the eurozone has recovered in recent months as the threat of energy rationing fades. Two of the world’s largest economies moved in opposite directions at the start of the year, with U.S. businesses reporting further declines in activity in January while the eurozone saw a modest pickup. The divergence suggests that while the U.S. economy continues to lose momentum, Europe’s could be stabilizing, at least for now. The pace of contraction in U.S. firms slowed in January, according to new business surveys released Tuesday, a possible signal that the economy could be bottoming out, thanks to slowing inflation and resilient demand.

☆ Europe’s Economy Picks Up, Raising Hopes Global Recession Threat Is Receding
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Paul Hannon | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Consumer confidence in the eurozone has recovered in recent months as the threat of energy rationing fades. Business activity in the eurozone rose in January after successive declines in the second half of last year, raising the chances that the global economy could avoid a recession this year, economists said. The unexpectedly upbeat surveys suggest that while the global economy could slow this year under pressure from high prices and interest rates, a recession appears less likely thanks to the receding threat of energy shortages in Europe and China’s postpandemic reopening.

☆ Lagarde Says China’s Economic Rebound Revives Inflation Worries
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( Paul Hannon | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

A market in Lianyungang, in China’s eastern Jiangsu province. China lifted many of its zero-tolerance pandemic controls in early December. China’s abandonment of its zero-Covid policy is good news for global economic growth but it could give a fresh boost to inflation in Europe, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said on Friday“The change of this Covid policy will revive the economy,“ said Ms. Lagarde. “That is positive for the rest of the world, but there will be more inflationary pressure.“

☆ Global Minimum Tax Could Bring Governments Higher Revenues Than Thought
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Paul Hannon | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

In the U.S., the minimum tax proposal is stranded in Congress. Governments could get a bigger windfall than previously estimated if they implement a planned overhaul of international tax rules, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said Wednesday. The Paris-based body guided lengthy talks that eventually led to the October 2021 international tax agreement. The plan set a minimum tax rate of 15% on the profits of large businesses and shifted some tax revenues to where companies sell to consumers, rather than where they are based.

☆ U.K. Inflation Fell for Second Month, Following Global Move
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Paul Hannon | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

The U.K.’s annual rate of inflation fell for a second straight month in December, the latest sign that the global surge in consumer prices that began in early 2021 is slowing. Consumer prices in the U.K. were 10.5% higher than a year earlier, a slower rate of inflation than the 10.7% recorded in November as gasoline prices cooled, the Office for National Statistics said Wednesday. The core rate of inflation was unchanged at 6.3%, while prices of food and beverages rose at the fastest pace since September 1977.

☆ Global Unemployment to Steady Despite Economic Slowdown, Says International Labour Organization
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-16 | by ( Paul Hannon | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Unemployment will stay mostly stable around the world this year and next despite a sharp economic slowdown, reflecting a shortage of workers in rich countries among other factors, the International Labour Organization said Monday. High prices for food and energy, coupled with rising interest rates, are expected to slow the global economy this year. The World Bank last week said it expects world output to rise by just 1.7%, which would be the third-weakest expansion in nearly three decades, overshadowed only by the 2009 and 2020 downturns.

☆ Europe’s Mild Winter Cushions Economic Blow of Ukraine War
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( Paul Hannon | Tom Fairless | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Shoppers in Paris. Any recession in Europe is likely to be shallow and brief, according to fresh data and estimates. Russia’s economic war with the West looks set to claim a much smaller toll on Europe than the brutal recession many economists warned about just months ago, due to falling energy prices and government intervention to buttress the continent’s economy. A mild winter so far, efforts by businesses and households to cut energy consumption, successful moves by governments to find new natural-gas suppliers and hundreds of billions of euros in fiscal support mean Europe’s recession is likely to be shallow and brief—if it happens at all—according to fresh data and estimates.

☆ Warmer Weather Helps Ease Europe’s War-Driven Inflation Surge
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Paul Hannon | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Lower energy costs as Europe enjoys a mild start to winter have helped slow the eurozone’s annual rate of inflation to single digits, but consumer prices are still rising too quickly for policy makers at the European Central Bank, who have signaled they intend to raise their key interest rate again in the near future. A surge in energy prices in the months following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine pushed eurozone inflation sharply higher, and above its U.S. equivalent from midyear, but warmer-than-usual temperatures and government caps helped reverse that move as the year drew to a close.

☆ France and U.K. Face Wave of Strikes During Peak Holiday Travel Season
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-23 | by ( Paul Hannon | Benjamin Katz | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

The U.K. and France braced for disruptions to holiday travel, as British border-control personnel went on strike and French rail workers walked off the job. Border-control agents in the U.K. kicked off more than a week of cost-of-living protests amid soaring inflation and the worst U.K. industrial disputes in a decade.

☆ U.K. Strikes Expand to Passport Control, Disrupting Holiday Travel
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-22 | by ( Paul Hannon | Benjamin Katz | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

LONDON—British passport control staff are set to strike from Friday, becoming the latest government workers to seek wage rises that get closer to matching inflation, a sign that the economic and political turmoil that marked 2022 is far from over. About 1,000 passport control workers are expected to walk out across six airports across the country between Dec. 23 and 26, and again between Dec. 28 to 31 in demands over wages amid rising inflation. The U.K. government is preparing to deploy the British military to help staff immigration counters and reduce the impact on arriving passengers, while Heathrow Airport has asked airlines to curb ticket sales during the strikes.

☆ Europe Skirts a Winter Slump, but War Fallout Clouds Its Economic Future
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( Tom Fairless | Paul Hannon | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Shoppers at a festive market in Berlin, Germany, where some small businesses are struggling to cope with rising energy prices. But the region’s medium-term problems look harder to fix, and leave Europe facing a struggle to retain its industrial core. Russia’s war on Ukraine and its economic fallout has shaken Europe’s export-oriented business model. Skyrocketing energy prices threaten industries at the heart of the continent’s manufacturing system, such as chemicals and metal production. Businesses around Europe are reducing production and starting to redirect investment overseas, including to the U.S., which is luring foreign companies with hundreds of billions of dollars in subsidies.

☆ Europe’s Economy, Likely Shrinking, Is Set to Avoid Worst-Case Scenario
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( Paul Hannon | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Europe’s economy likely contracted at the end of 2022 but showed signs of resilience, suggesting the downturn could be milder than feared just a few months ago, business surveys released Friday showed. While S&P Global’s composite output index for the eurozone—which includes services and manufacturing activity—remained below the 50 mark in December, indicating a contraction, it rose by one point to 48.8 from November, pointing to a smaller fall in activity than expected earlier.

☆ Europe Data Points to Contraction but Economy Set to Avoid Worst-Case Scenario
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( Paul Hannon | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

☆ Russia Central Bank Worries War Could Spur Inflation
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( Paul Hannon | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Russia’s central bank said it is worried that the redirection of manpower and resources to feed President Vladimir Putin‘s war in Ukraine will give new life to a surge in inflation the bank had managed to contain. The Bank of Russia left its key interest rate unchanged on Friday for the second straight policy meeting, diverging again from its Western counterparts, with the Federal Reserve and Europe’s major central banks this week raising their policy rates by half a percentage point. The Russian central bank said it still expects inflation to fall in 2023 from the 12% rate recorded in November and the higher rates recorded immediately after Russia’s February invasion of Ukraine.

☆ Price Pressures Ease in U.S. and Europe, Businesses Say
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( Austen Hufford | Paul Hannon | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Price pressures eased at the end of the year as central banks fought high inflation, businesses in the U.S. and Europe say, though the global economy continued to teeter with the possibility of a recession. Household demand for goods is weakening across the globe, and factories are cutting production in response. That has taken pressure off supply chains, leading to a downshift in price increases and slowing global trade.

☆ EU Greenlights 15% Corporate Minimum Tax, Advancing Global Deal
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Paul Hannon | Richard Rubin | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Paolo Gentiloni, the EU’s top economy official, called the agreement ‘a win for fairness, a win for diplomacy and a win for multilateralism.’Countries in the European Union are set to start collecting additional taxes in 2024 under a long-stalled global deal to set a minimum rate on company profits, after Hungary and Poland dropped their objections to the move. In October 2021, 137 countries agreed to impose a 15% minimum tax on large companies, paving the way for the most significant overhaul of international tax rules in a century. By imposing the tax in each jurisdiction where a company operates, large countries aim to reduce tax-rate competition and the advantages of operating in a low-tax locale. Getting to that point took years of negotiations that often seemed close to collapse.

☆ ECB, BOE Raise Rates by Half a Percentage Point
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Tom Fairless | Paul Hannon | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

The central banks of the U.K., eurozone and Switzerland increased interest rates by 0.5 percentage point, following the Federal Reserve in slowing the pace of increases as inflation edges lower across advanced economies. The European Central Bank said in a statement it would raise its key rate to 2% from 1.5%, as expected, the highest level since 2009. In a hawkish twist, the ECB said it expected “to raise [rates] significantly further, because inflation remains far too high and is projected to stay above the target for too long.” The bank also said it would reduce its multitrillion-dollar bondholdings starting in March, by €15 billion, equivalent to $16 billion, a month on average at first.

☆ BOE Raises Rates by 0.5 Point, Slowing Pace of Tightening
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Tom Fairless | Paul Hannon | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

The Bank of England increased interest rates by 0.5 percentage point to 3.5%, following the Federal Reserve in slowing the pace of increases as inflation edges lower. The BOE’s decision follows a similar move by the Swiss National Bank on a busy day for Europe’s most influential central banks. Investors expect the European Central Bank to announce 0.5-point rate increase later Thursday. Both the BOE and the ECB have been battling all year with inflation that has spiraled to multidecade highs, partly fueled by a surge in energy prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

☆ Swiss Central Bank Follows Fed With 0.5-Point Rate Rise
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Tom Fairless | Paul Hannon | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

The Swiss National Bank said it would increase interest rates by 0.5 percentage point to 1%, following the Federal Reserve in slowing the pace of increases as inflation edges lower. The SNB’s decision kicks off a busy day for Europe’s most influential central banks. Investors expect the Bank of England and European Central Bank to announce 0.5-point rate increases later Thursday. Both have been battling all year with inflation that has spiraled to multidecade highs, partly fueled by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

☆ Europeans Cut Back on Spending, Pointing to Recession Ahead
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( Paul Hannon | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Europe has seen a 1.8% drop in retail sales from September, the largest fall since July 2021. Europeans cut back sharply on their spending on goods during October, a sign that high prices at the start of a period of increasing energy usage are pushing the region’s economies toward recession. Consumer prices have surged since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the Kremlin’s decision to weaponize the country’s vast stores of energy to undermine European support for Kyiv.

☆ Eurozone Inflation Eased in November, but Further Rate Rises Likely
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( Paul Hannon | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

The annual rate of inflation in the eurozone fell in November for the first time since mid-2021 as energy prices dropped. However, the slowdown isn’t likely to stop the European Central Bank from increasing interest rates further, economists warned. Consumer-price inflation across the 19 countries that share the euro has increased since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the Kremlin’s decision to weaponize the country’s vast stores of energy to undermine European support for Kyiv.

☆ Global Economy Slows, but Seems Set to Avoid Recession
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-23 | by ( Paul Hannon | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

The global economy is slowing as a turbulent 2022 draws to a close, but economists don’t expect it to slide into recession, even if some of the world’s biggest countries do. Business surveys released Wednesday pointed to declines in output across Europe’s largest economies in November, cementing expectations that high energy prices are likely to push them into contraction during the final quarter of this year and the first quarter of next.

☆ Global Economy Slows, but Seems to Be Faring Better Than Feared
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-23 | by ( Paul Hannon | Sarah Chaney Cambon | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

The global economy continued to deteriorate as 2022 draws to a close, but not as severely as economists previously feared, raising the possibility the world could avoid a deep slump next year. Business surveys released Wednesday pointed to declines in output across the U.S. and Europe’s largest economies in November. But the figures and other economic readings pointed to a mixed outlook, with some parts of both economies continuing to show resilience despite high inflation and rising interest rates.

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