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"Most Districts reported price growth slowed overall," the Fed said in its latest "Beige Book" summary of surveys and interviews conducted across its 12 districts through Aug. 28. It added that "nearly all districts indicated businesses renewed their previously unfulfilled expectations that wage growth will slow broadly in the near term." Data since the last Fed rate hike six weeks ago has tended to support that view, with the economy adding an average of 150,000 jobs per month over the last three months, down sharply from the prior three months. Earlier on Wednesday, Boston Fed President Susan Collins also said the central bank has the space to be patient, while acknowledging that inflation pressures, though easing, still remain too high. Home building was picking up, the Fed said, but building affordable properties is being strained by high financing costs and rising insurance premiums.

Persons: Christopher Waller, Susan Collins, Collins, Ann Saphir, Andrea Ricci, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, Boston, New, New York Fed, San Francisco Fed, Fed, Thomson Locations: U.S, New York

☆ Morning Bid: Early Labor Day for markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSept 1 - A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanLabor Day comes a bit earlier for markets this year, with Friday's release of the critical August jobs report coming just ahead of Monday's end-of-season U.S. holiday. A series of updates showed private sector hiring slowing in August, while job openings fell back in July and layoffs jumped. On the flipside, more up-to-date weekly jobless claims fell again and the consensus payrolls estimate has ticked higher from 150,000 only last week. Going into Friday's report, futures markets remain split and stand 50-50 on the chances of another hike by November. And whatever they think about peak rates, markets are also grappling with the prospect of rates staying up here for some time.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, JP Morgan, Saola, Gita Gopinath, Loretta Mester, Raphael Bostic, Alexander Smith Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Mike Dolan Labor, JP, Atlanta, HK, European Central Bank, Broadcom, Treasury, P Global, Cleveland Federal, Atlanta Fed, Reuters Graphics, United States Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Hong Kong, Europe

Fed Chair Jerome Powell was almost brusque in his re-statement of the central bank's anti-inflation commitment at the annual Jackson Hole symposium on Friday. Tracking that rather than more-skittish policy rate futures would have proved a better guide to how subsequent months panned out and to the summer doldrums in bonds and stocks. And yet the September meeting could still be the 'big reveal' as it sees publication of the Fed's updated 'dot plot' that will likely show just where they then see the cycle crest. San Francisco Fed chart on dispersion of Fed rate projections by horizonSan Francisco Fed index of Fed uncertaintyACCIDENT OR DESIGN? As to whether the Fed is guiding everyone to safe and happy place, there continues to be sceptics about the 'soft landing'.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Jackson, that's, it's, Andrew Foerster, Zinnia Martinez, Bruce Kasman, Joseph Lupton Organizations: Federal, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Atlanta, San Francisco Fed, San, Fed, San Francisco, JPMorgan, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, synch, San Francisco Fed

☆ Morning Bid: Cooler labor warms markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Raindrops hang on a sign for Wall Street outside the New York Stock Exchange in Manhattan in New York City, New York, U.S., October 26, 2020. Stubborn inflation readings from Europe on Wednesday and hesitation around this week's China market rebound suggested the coast was far from clear despite worldwide stock and bond market rally in the previous session. Ebbing consumer confidence in August reinforced the message of slowing activity, however, and The Conference Board's so-called labor market differential, derived from respondents' views on whether jobs are plentiful or hard to get, narrowed by almost six points to 26.2% - its lowest since April 2021. China's stock markets also stalled after a two-day rally, with U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo claiming on her three-day visit to the country that many U.S. firms now see China as "un-investable". But it seemed to draw a line under the stock market this week with a series of supports and the prospect of further cuts in lending, deposit and mortgage rates.

Persons: Mike Segar, Mike Dolan, St's, bitcoin, Gina Raimondo, Denmark's, Kristalina Georgieva, James, Brown, Forman, Louise Heavens Organizations: Wall, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Labor, Nasdaq, Securities, Exchange, U.S . Commerce, International Monetary Fund, Treasury, Cooper Companies Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S, Europe, China, Monday's U.S, Spain, Beijing, payrolls, Shanghai, CrowdStrike

☆ Recent updates for Amazon return to office policies
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( Eugene Kim | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +11 min

Previous pronouncements about the revolutionary benefits of remote work have been replaced by vague, data-light arguments on productivity gains from being in the office. Apple, Meta, Bloomberg and Google all have gleaming HQs that would look very silly if those companies continued to embrace remote work. Insider has asked Amazon for comment on its RTO policy several times in recent months and the company has responded. AdvertisementAdvertisementAn internal guideline, obtained by Insider, listed Amazon office locations and the dates they are expected to be fully "ready" to support the RTO mandate. That's what some Amazon employees have done by mocking the company's RTO policy and its famous leadership principles.

Persons: Brad Glasser, there's, we've, Amazon's, LINDSEY WASSON, Andy Jassy, Slack, Beth Galetti, Al Drago, Paul Vixie, Andy Jassy's, Mike Hopkins, Hopkins, Elaine Thompson, snafu, they'd Organizations: Amazon, Tech, Meta, Bloomberg, Google, Seattle, Reuters, Amazon SVP, Human, Services, Company, Amazon Video Locations: Seattle, Seattle , Washington , U.S, Beth Galetti REUTERS, Seattle , New York, Houston, Austin , Texas

☆ Gold loiters near 5-month low as traders hunt for more Fed cues
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A staff member selects a gold bracelet for a customer at a gold shop in Renhuai, Southwest China's Guizhou province, May 11, 2023. Gold held around five-month lows on Monday, pressured by higher bond yields as markets geared up for the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole symposium for clues on where interest rates might settle. Spot gold was largely flat at $1,887.70 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures added 0.1% to $1,917.70. Gold grazed its lowest since mid-March at $1,883.70 last week, as buoyant economic data raised bets for higher-for-longer U.S. interest rates, reducing demand for the non-yielding commodity. Investors now look to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech on Friday, as central bankers from around the world assemble in Jackson Hole for their annual conference.

Persons: Gold, Jackson, Ole Hansen, Saxo, Jerome Powell's, Kelvin Wong Organizations: Federal, Treasury, U.S . Federal Reserve, Trust Locations: Renhuai, Southwest China's Guizhou province, U.S, Jackson, Asia Pacific

A trader works, as a screen displays a news conference by Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell following the Fed rate announcement, on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 26, 2023. The Fed watches an array of asset prices in its monitoring of the economy, including stocks, home prices, and corporate bonds. Reuters GraphicsAs of the Fed's July meeting, most Fed officials said they thought rates would need to increase more, with key measures of inflation still more than double the Fed's 2% target. Normally, Fed officials would be expected to see that sort of economic strength as a reason inflation might stay high and require further rate increases. "It may take sustained higher 10-year yields to slow the economy and the housing sector in particular to re-attain 2% target inflation," wrote economists from Citi.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Krishna Guha, Guha, Howard Schneider, Deepa Babington Organizations: Federal Reserve, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Rights, Treasury, U.S . Federal Reserve, Stock, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Fed, New York Fed, Citi, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

☆ Bonds find respite but China crisis festers
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., August 15, 2023. But equally there was little let-up in the bad news from China's ailing economy and real estate sector. China's securities regulator said on Friday it would cut trading costs, support share buybacks and introduce long-term capital as it unveiled a package of measures aimed at reviving the stock market and boosting investor confidence. Other Asian bourses and European stocks fell too, with U.S. stock futures also in the red before the open. Emerging market equity indices (.MSCIEF) teetered near two-month lows too.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, HSI, teetered, Estee Lauder, Joe Biden, Fumio Kishida, Yoon Suk, Elaine Hardcastle Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Bank of America, Federal, Jackson, China, HK, People's Bank of, U.S, Japan's, Palo Alto Networks, Deere, Treasury, Japan, South, Camp David Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, China, Treasuries, Beijing, Philadelphia, Shanghai, Hong Kong, People's Bank of China, South Korea

☆ Accelerating US economy sideswipes markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A sign is seen outside the 11 Wall St. entrance of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., March 1, 2021. That compares with the official estimates of second-quarter GDP growth at an annualised 2.4% - itself a significant upside surprise - and Wall St forecasters are re-drawing forecasts again. Deutsche Bank on Wednesday, for example, more than doubled its third quarter real GDP call to 3.1%. The implications of such resilience in U.S. activity in the face of more than five percentage points of interest rate rises in 18 months has forced many to rethink the sustainable interest rate level over the horizon and increase long-term projections. After another heavy loss on Wall St indices (.SPX), (.IXIC) on Wednesday, futures regained some ground ahead of the bell today.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Jackson, Christina Fincher Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Micron Technology, Atlanta Federal, Deutsche Bank, Walmart, Applied, Ross Stores, Philadelphia Fed, Treasury, Housing, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S, Asia, Europe

"Most participants continued to see significant upside risks to inflation, which could require further tightening of monetary policy." The group also "discussed several risk-management considerations that could bear on future policy decisions," the minutes said. U.S. Treasury yields hit session highs after the release of the minutes while U.S. stocks extended losses. Fed staff said they expected a "step-down" in underlying prices over the second half of this year. Investors in contracts tied to the federal funds rate are betting heavily that the Fed won't raise its policy rate again during the current tightening cycle.

Persons: Howard Schneider, Michael S, Ann Saphir, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S, Federal, Market, Treasury, Fed, Derby, Thomson

☆ Bonds bruised, China stocks and rouble sink
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

With seasonal trading volumes so thin and the events and data diary bare today at least, there's a danger of over-interpreting recent market developments. But the backup in long-term U.S. bond yields over the past couple of weeks despite relatively unchanged expectations for Federal Reserve policy moves has clearly unsettled investors. Although 2-year Treasury yields remain below 5% and are lower than they were at midyear, 10-year Treasury yields continue to probe 9-month highs around 4.20% and the yield curve has disinverted by some 20 basis points this month as a result. China's yuan hit its lowest since June as traders look to a possible easing of 1-year interest rates on Tuesday. Events to watch for on Monday:* U.S. Treasury auctions 3-, 6-month billsReuters GraphicsReuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsBy Mike Dolan, editing by XXXX <a href="mailto:mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com" target="_blank">mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com</a>.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Fitch, Goldman Sachs, Russia's Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Micron Technology, Federal Reserve, United States, AAA, Treasury, . Treasury, Kremlin, Shanghai, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S, United, midyear, China, Japan, Ukraine, Hong Kong, Asia

☆ Why a stalled Ukrainian offensive could represent a huge political problem for Zelensky in the US
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-09 | by ( Stephen Collinson | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +10 min

And even if Trump is not the GOP nominee in 2024, ebbing public support for the war could hurt Biden. Therefore, for political, as well as strategic reasons, there is huge pressure on Ukraine’s long-awaited counteroffensive this summer to produce significant battlefield breakthroughs. Any suggestion that Ukraine’s offensive has been bogged down will deepen that skepticism over a prolonged US commitment. Soon after the Russian invasion in February 2022, 62% said the US should do more to support Ukraine. The political dynamics in the House represent a rather precarious foundation for Ukraine’s vital US support, underscoring why a stalled offensive could represent a political disaster for Zelensky in the United States as well as a strategic loss for Ukraine at home.

Persons: Volodymyr Zelensky’s, Vladimir Putin, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Putin, Trump, Biden, CNN’s Jim Sciutto, bleakly, Ukraine’s, Zelensky, ” Zelensky, ” It’s, Mark Hertling, ” Hertling, darkens, George H.W, George H.W . Bush, Kevin McCarthy, John Kirby, CNN’s Wolf Blitzer, He’s, Chris Christie, Nikki Haley, Mike Pence –, there’s Organizations: CNN, GOP, Senior, Ukraine, Army, Republican, Democratic, Trump Republicans, National Security, New, New Jersey Gov, South Carolina Gov Locations: US, Ukraine, Moscow, United States, NATO, Russia, Kyiv, Washington, Boston, Saudi Arabia, Crimea, George H.W ., Iowa, New Hampshire, New Jersey

☆ July jobs report: U.S. payroll growth totaled 187,000, lower than expected
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-04 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

A more encompassing unemployment rate that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons fell to 6.7%, down 0.2 percentage point from June. The survey of households, which is used to calculate the unemployment rate, showed a more robust gain of 268,000. The unemployment rate for Blacks moved lower to 5.8% while the rate for adult women nudged higher to 2.7%. A 3.5% unemployment rate, you can't complain about that," said Satyam Panday, U.S. chief economist at S&P Global Ratings. This is a "really, really solid labor market," said Jonathan Stokoe, senior vice president at job placement firm Adecco.

Persons: Nonfarm, Dow Jones, Stocks, Satyam Panday, Jonathan Stokoe, Rick Rieder, Jerome Powell, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Treasury, Blacks, Gross, Atlanta, Group, Fed, Bank of America Locations: U.S, BlackRock

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Hopes of 'Goldilocks' economy, rate peak buoy US stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The S&P 500 is up nearly 19% this year after gaining around 1% in the past week. At the same time, investors believe the Fed is unlikely to deliver much more of the monetary policy tightening that shook markets last year. A test of the economy comes next week, when the U.S. reports employment numbers for July. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 is up nearly 44% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 information technology sector has gained nearly 46%. The S&P 500 tech sector now trades at 28.2 times forward earnings, from 19.6 at the start of the year.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Jerome Powell, Bob Kalman, Torsten Slok, Burns McKinney, Randy Frederick, wouldn't, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, Deepa Babington Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, Miramar Capital, Apollo Global Management, Meta, Roku Inc, NJF Investment Group, Apple, Microsoft, Schwab Center, Financial Research, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S, Miramar

☆ Morning Bid: Bank of Japan excites, Dow unlucky, Intel jumps
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Specifically, the central bank said it would offer to buy 10-year JGBs at 1.0% in fixed-rate operations, instead of the previous rate of 0.5% - tolerating the wider band for bond market borrowing rates. With July core inflation in Tokyo falling back to a 10-month low, the need for tightening may be ebbing anyway. Friday's data is expected to show another drop in the Fed's favoured core PCE inflation gauge in June. For markets more broadly, Friday seems a little scattergun so far after a heavy week of macro policy and corporate news. U.S. Treasury yields fell back from two-week highs hit after the punchy U.S. economy readouts and central bank moves, with the 2-to-10 year yield curve steepening as recession fears abate.

Persons: Mike Dolan, Dow Jones bluechips, T Rowe Price, Nick Macfie Organizations: Bank of Japan, Dow, Nikkei, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Treasury, ECB, Intel, U.S, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Proctor, Gamble, Colgate Palmolive, Franklin Resources, Newell Brands, Church, Dwight, Charter Communications, Dallas Fed, University of Michigan, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Wall St, Tokyo, Wall, Asia, Centene, Franklin

Reuters analysis shows a massive jump in the assets of emerging market (EM) mutual funds and exchange traded funds (ETFs) that exclude China as U.S. and European investors turn more wary of being exposed to the Asian giant. Other investors are simply moving to markets with better growth prospects, such as Brazil. The scale of change needed in global supply chains could drive such capital flows for the next decade, he said. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex-China ETF , the world's largest emerging market ex-China ETF whose biggest holdings are firms in Taiwan, South Korea and India, attracted a record $1 billion net inflow in the first half of 2023, the data showed. "China is the one major country that investors are most concerned about in EM," said John Lau, portfolio manager for Asia Pacific and emerging market equities at SEI.

Persons: Aly, Malcolm Dorson, John Lau, Goldman Sachs, Jeffrey Jaensubhakij, ”, Benjamin Low, Donald Trump, Joe Biden's, Biden, Wong Kok Hoi, Summer Zhen, Vidya Ranganathan Organizations: REUTERS, Global, China ETF, China, Asia Pacific, SEI, Stock Connect, Morningstar, China Opportunity Equity Fund, Fund, Boston, Cambridge Associates, CSI, Nikkei, Investors, Reuters Graphics, APS Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, China, HONG KONG, U.S, Mexico, India, Vietnam, Brazil, New York, Taiwan, South Korea, Asia, Singapore, Indonesia, Japan, Hong Kong, Canada, “ U.S

☆ US economic growth accelerates in second quarter; inflation retreats
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Gross domestic product increased at a 2.4% annualized rate last quarter. Excluding food and energy, prices rose at a 2.6% pace following a 4.2% rate of increase in the first quarter. Though the pace of growth slowed from the first quarter's robust 4.2% rate, it was enough to add more than a full percentage point to GDP growth. Government spending also contributed to GDP growth. A measure of domestic demand increased at a solid 2.3% rate after surging at a 3.2% pace in the first quarter.

Persons: Amira Karaoud, Christopher Rupkey, Joe Biden's, Lucia Mutikani, Nick Zieminski, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Commerce, Federal Reserve, Gross, Reuters, Fed, Consumer, Labor Department, Conference, Treasury, Investment, Thomson Locations: Louisville, U.S, WASHINGTON, New York, United States

Other investors are simply moving to markets with better growth prospects, such as Brazil. The scale of change needed in global supply chains could drive such capital flows for the next decade, he said. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex-China ETF , the world's largest emerging market ex-China ETF whose biggest holdings are firms in Taiwan, South Korea and India, attracted a record $1 billion net inflow in the first half of 2023, the data showed. "China is the one major country that investors are most concerned about in EM," said John Lau, portfolio manager for Asia Pacific and emerging market equities at SEI. “U.S., Canadian, and some European investors are exiting China due to political pressure.

☆ Morning Bid: Big Tech litmus test as Fed gather
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The wider blue-chip CSI 300 Index (.CSI300) snapped a six-day losing streak to pop 3% and buying from state banks propped the yuan. Both oil and Treasury yields gave back some of those gains again today, however, with year-on-year crude price declines still tracking more than 21%. There was little ostensible reaction to the formal rebalancing of the Nasdaq 100 (.NDX) index that pared weightings of several of the big caps to reduce "over-concentration". The approach of Wednesday's Fed decision may limit market moves until then. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Mike Dolan, sagged, Dow Jones bluechips, Alphabet's, Clark, Chubb, Paccar, Sherwin, Williams, Archer, Ed Osmond Organizations: Big Tech, Microsoft, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, ebbing, Nasdaq, Google, Texas, NextEra Energy, Visa, GE, GM, Dow, Verizon, Universal Health, Daniels, Richmond Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Federal, Market, Monetary Fund, Treasury, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Hong, Europe, China, Danaher, Corning, Kimberly, Biogen, Dover, Nucor, Midland

Like many, they home in on the outsized drop in used-car prices - one of the key aggravators of 'core' inflation that at 4.8% is still well above the now sub-3% headline CPI rate. Pointing to four straight months of ebbing 'trimmed mean' inflation measures of core inflation - which strip out high and low outliers - the Morgan Stanley team doubt June was a bum steer and see core disinflation more "a trend rather than a headfake". Inflation surprisesFed estimates of R* natural interest rateReuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsR-STAR GAZINGOthers doubt the optimism, of course. And it's the latter that homes in on the prospect of an inflation undershoot. Further Fed tightening after this month, then, could well see markets start to consider inflation actually undershooting 2% targets after all - but dragging recession back onto the dashboard to boot.

Persons: it's, Morgan Stanley, Christopher Waller, Guneet Dhingra, Allen Liu, Janet Yellen jived, Mike Dolan Organizations: Federal Reserve, Reuters, Barclays, Global, Bank of America, Treasury, Twitter, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, Intriguingly

U.S. producer prices barely rose in June and the annual increase in producer inflation was the smallest in nearly three years. Keeping a lid on optimism, a separate report showed weekly jobless claims unexpectedly fell last week, indicating that the labor market remains tight. InflationTraders expect a 20% probability that the central bank will hike borrowing costs in its November meeting but have fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate hike later in July. Five of the 11 major S&P 500 sectors advanced, with communications services (.SPLRCL) leading gains boosted by a 4.9% jump in Alphabet (GOOGL.O). Overall, earnings for the S&P 500 constituents are expected to have dropped 6.4% in the second quarter, Refinitiv data showed.

Persons: IRPR, David Russell, Bard, ChatGPT, Johann M Cherian, Shashwat Chauhan, Saumyadeb Chakrabarty, Maju Samuel Organizations: PepsiCo, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Google, Microsoft, Delta Air Lines, Meta, NYSE, Thomson Locations: Europe, Brazil, Bengaluru

☆ Leveraged bets in US Treasury market could 'amplify' stress, BoE warns
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

NEW YORK, July 12 (Reuters) - Large leveraged bets by hedge funds in the U.S. Treasury market could "amplify stress" in global financial markets should rates markets move sharply, the Bank of England said in a report published on Wednesday. Hedge funds have taken record short positions in two- and five-year Treasury futures this year, suggesting that fund managers expect short-term interest rates to continue to move higher. "Really what the market is looking for is a little bit more clarity from the Fed and other global central banks as to where terminal rates will ultimately be, and that will ultimately translate into more conviction in the rates market," he said. "Asset managers continued to add to (Treasury) exposure with leveraged funds taking the other side," the report noted. Reporting by David Randall; Editing by Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Benjamin Jeffery, David Randall, Paul Simao Organizations: YORK, U.S . Treasury, Bank of England, Treasury, BMO Capital Markets, Bank of America, Thomson Locations: U.S, Treasuries

☆ Morning Bid: Bond yields recoil on disinflation buzz
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanA volte face in Treasury yields has improved investors' mood considerably this week as excitement about U.S. disinflation builds despite conflicting signals from around the world. After bumpy start to the third quarter, stocks and bonds rallied together on Monday - with both two- and 10-year Treasury yields recoiling sharply back below 5% and 4% thresholds respectively. Spurred by more signs of ebbing U.S. inflation ahead of Wednesday's critical June consumer price report, Wall Street stocks also recovered ground on Monday. A New York Fed survey showed on Monday that household inflation expectations for the year ahead fell to 3.8% last month, the lowest in more than two years. But if the U.S. inflation picture is looking more optimistic, it's much harder to read around the world.

Persons: Mike Dolan, Russell, Michael Barr, John Williams, Joe Biden, Jane Merriman Organizations: Wall, Federal, Japan's, New York Fed, Fed, Bank of England, Treasuries, York Federal, NATO, Treasury, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, ., China, Britain, Hong Kong, Vilnius

☆ Swiss National Bank's Schlegel not deterred by recent inflation dip - newspaper
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

"Our mission is to guarantee price stability, that means inflation should be in the range of 0-2%," Schlegel told the newspaper. The market currently sees a 63% chance of a 25 basis point hike by the central bank at its next meeting in September. "This will make labour scarcer, which could mean higher wages and higher prices which would require higher interest rates," Schlegel said. Therefore less capital could be available which would put upward pressure on inflation-adjusted interest rates." The switch to renewable energies and the accompanying large investments this needed could also push up inflation and interest rates, he said.

Persons: Martin Schlegel, Schlegel, John Revill, Hugh Lawson Organizations: Swiss National Bank, Schweiz, Thomson Locations: ZURICH

☆ Fed's Goolsbee sees 'golden path' to lower inflation without a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said Friday he's confident inflation can be tamed without a recession, even with additional interest rate increases likely. Speaking to CNBC following the release of the June nonfarm payrolls report, he said the ongoing job growth is part of the Fed's "golden path" toward restoring price stability without taking the economy. "That's the golden path, and I feel like we're on that golden path. Though Goolsbee said he is confident the that inflation is ebbing, he also sees more tightening as likely. "That is on the golden path where we get inflation down to something like our target and we do it without a recession."

Persons: Austan Goolsbee, nonfarm payrolls, Goolsbee, CNBC's Steve Liesman, Let's, Payrolls, haven't Organizations: Chicago Federal, CNBC, Federal Open Market

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