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☆ Here are 3 reasons to buy gold, according to UBS
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold stumbled this month after a strong start to the year. However, UBS Global Wealth Management sees more upside ahead. The precious metal is down about 2% in May, as optimism around a possible U.S. debt ceiling deal grows. "Based on the 1Q23 data from the World Gold Council, central banks are on track to buy around 700 metric tons of gold this year, much higher than the average since 2010 of below 500 metric tons," he wrote. Dollar weakness: The dollar index, which tracks the U.S. currency's performance against six others, is down 0.2% over the past year, which should be supportive for gold prices.

☆ Consumer debt passes $17 trillion for the first time despite slide in mortgage demand
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Total consumer debt hit a fresh new high in the first quarter of 2023, pushing past $17 trillion even amid a sharp pullback in home borrowing. A series of Fed rate cuts helped push 30-year mortgage rates to a low around 2.65% in January 2021. The higher rates helped push total mortgage debt to $12.04 trillion, up 0.1 percentage point from the fourth quarter. Despite rising rates, mortgage foreclosures remained low. Delinquency rates for all debt increased, up 0.6 percentage point for credit cards to 6.5% and 0.2 percentage point for auto loans to 6.9%.

☆ Americans’ debt surpasses $17 trillion for the first time
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

To this point, credit card debt has been rising at the sharpest pace of any debt covered in the report, said Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst for Bankrate. Last year, 39% carried debt month to month. Increases in credit card debt can be a either sign of confidence or struggle, he added. “For the foreseeable future, we’re stuck with high credit card rates, high balances, and more people carrying debt,” he said. “My advice would be to pay down credit card debt, as quickly and cost effectively as possible.

Bank of America is bullish on Fortinet , saying the cybersecurity company's strong fundamentals make it well-positioned to achieve long-term targets. "We believe the company will continue to demonstrate a strong price/performance value proposition due to its custom ASIC products. "However, trends are solid and we highlight continued strong execution despite a challenged environment, attesting to the high value Fortinet delivers to its customers. Fortinet shares jumped 3.2% Monday prior to the market open. "The company is also expanding into new areas, and the success of this strategy is evident in its financial results," said Liani, adding that its "strong financial profile commands premium valuation."

☆ A Fidelity fund manager who's beaten 93% of competitors in the past 5 years shares his strategy for delivering upside while avoiding painful selloffs — and explains how he finds 'mispriced growth' sto
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-16 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The Fidelity Puritan Fund has dominated in the past five years under Dan Kelley. Here's how the portfolio manager finds underpriced growth stocks that are still high quality. Meanwhile, about half of the fund's bonds are US Treasuries, and just 11.5% are high-yield. How to find mispriced growth in marketsWhen looking for stocks, Kelley said his focus is on finding "mispriced growth" companies, which is similar to what many fund managers call "growth at a reasonable price," or GARP. That's the same mindset that's kept the Fidelity Puritan Fund going for nearly eight decades.

☆ Bank of America's top global strategist warns there's 'plenty of room for more S&P 500 downside' as 80% of recessions since 1933 have torpedoed stocks by 20% after they started
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-15 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Hartnett says S&P 500 EPS will fall by 16% in 2023, compared to the market's view of -4%. Some argue that stocks have already priced in a recession, having fallen 20% in 2022 (though the S&P 500 has rallied 8% year-to-date). He continued: "Plenty of room for more S&P 500 downside…since 1929, 2/3 of the S&P 500 peak-to-trough drawdowns have occurred during, not before, US recessions." So whether we have an economic recession or not it isn't as important as the earnings recession," he said. Most strategists see a more mild decline in store for stocks, and most — including Wilson — see the S&P 500 finishing the year somewhere near 4,000.

☆ Investing Club mailbag: What's the minimum pullback before I can buy more shares?
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

What does the Club consider the minimum improvement in cost basis before buying more shares? A beta of 1 would indicate that the volatility of the stock is on par with the broader market. As fundamental investors and avid market watchers, we look more to valuation metrics to figure out when to buy. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER .

A different report containing classified material will be shared with members of Congress, which comes in response to requests from congressional committees, the White House said. "President Biden's choices for how to execute a withdrawal from Afghanistan were severely constrained by conditions created by his predecessor," the report said. But the Trump administration "provided no plans for how to conduct the final withdrawal or to evacuate Americans and Afghan allies," the White House said. "No agency predicted a Taliban takeover in nine days," Kirby told reporters at the White House press briefing. Many critics of the withdrawal — including lawmakers from both parties — faulted the Biden administration for how it handled the pullout.

☆ JPMorgan shares 4 charts that put the banking crisis into perspective — and show why the tech recession may already be over
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-26 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

But JPMorgan Private Bank's Jacob Manoukian says investors shouldn't let the noise distract them. With the recent collapses of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank drawing comparisons to the Global Financial Crisis, the stakes have never been higher for the Federal Reserve than they were during this week's FOMC meeting. Both SVB and Signature Bank had an unusually high concentration of large deposits above the $250,000 threshold insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. Takeaway #2: Say goodbye to the tech recessionBesides their deposit makeup separating them from regional banks, both SVB and Signature Bank were also highly concentrated in specific sectors. "Such companies are often (as yet) unprofitable, speculative and digitally enabled," Manoukian wrote.

☆ Michael Burry says he's not seeing 'true danger' in the aftermath of SVB collapse
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Michael Burry, known for calling the subprime mortgage crisis, said Monday evening that he expects the unfolding banking crisis to be over soon without severe damage. I am not seeing true danger here," Burry said in a now-deleted tweet. The collapse over the past several days of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank — the second- and third-largest bank failures in U.S. history — prompted extraordinary rescue action from regulators. In addition to backstopping the deposits at SVB and Signature Bank, federal regulators also announced an additional funding facility for troubled banks. Burry shot to fame by betting against mortgage-backed securities before the 2008 crisis.

☆ Putin, secure in power, sets stage for long and draining war
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-15 | by ( Guy Faulconbridge | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

One senior Russian source with knowledge of decision-making said Putin's hopes of burnishing his reputation had been dashed. "Ahead, it will be even more difficult and more costly for both Ukraine and Russia," said the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity. For all the geopolitical shock waves Putin has caused, he still has no serious rival for power, according to five senior Russian sources close to decision-making. The source said Russia was at a disadvantage in both military technology and motivation, but that the war would still continue "for a very long time". "The president believes he can win in Ukraine," said one senior Russian source.

☆ Column: Where to park the 401(k) when you switch jobs or retire
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( Mark Miller | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

When you change jobs or retire, you have three basic choices: leave your retirement account where it is, roll it over to a new employer or move it to a standalone individual retirement account (IRA). When does it make sense to leave a 401(k) plan behind? A rollover can make sense if you are in a 401(k) plan with poor investment choices or high fees. FOCUS ON THE FEESPew analyzed the difference between average institutional and retail share class expense ratios across all mutual funds that offered at least one institutional share class and one retail share class in 2019. There is also a case to be made for staying in your 401(k) plan - especially if you work for a large employer.

☆ S&P 500 forms bullish ‘golden cross’ pattern. Here’s what typically happens next
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-03 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

On Thursday, the broad market index formed what Wall Street calls a "golden cross," which happens when a 50-day moving average crosses through and above the 200-day moving average. Traders and analysts use the golden cross as an indicator that a market trend is about to turn more positive. There have now been 37 golden crosses on the S & P 500 since 1950, according to Carson Group chief market strategist Ryan Detrick. For some analysts, it's only considered a golden cross if the 200-day is sloping upward. But golden crosses tend to shine when associated with recessions, according to Bank of America chart analyst Stephen Suttmeier.

Faced with a shortage of US dollars, Pakistan only has enough foreign currency in its reserves to pay for three weeks of imports. Long lines are forming at gas stations as prices swing wildly in the country of 220 million. Pakistan’s currency, the rupee, recently dropped to new lows against the US dollar after authorities eased currency controls to meet one of the IMF’s lending conditions. The country has been spending more on trade than it has brought in, running down its stock of foreign currency and weighing on the rupee’s value. Pakistan's usually bustling ports, like this one in Karachi, have ground to a halt as the country grapples with a severe shortage of foreign currency.

☆ Cathie Wood sees bitcoin rising above $500,000 and lauds its resiliency after FTX collapse
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Ark Invest chief investment officer Cathie Wood is still bullish on the cryptocurrency, however, and continues betting its price will eventually reach $500,000, she told CNBC's "Squawk Box" Wednesday morning. Wood is also a big investor in the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, known by its ticker GBTC, through the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW) . Last year, Grayscale sued the Securities and Exchange Commission over its decision to block the conversion of its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust to an exchange-traded fund. "The SEC has dragged its feet in terms of a bitcoin ETF, while approving a bitcoin futures ETF – it just doesn't make any sense to us," Wood added. Wood just posted her best month ever as her beaten-down favorite stocks staged a big comeback in the new year.

☆ House Republicans pass bill to limit drawdowns on Strategic Petroleum Reserve
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-27 | by ( Christina Wilkie | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

A maze of crude oil pipe and equipment is seen with the American and Texas flags flying in the background at the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in Freeport, Texas. WASHINGTON — The U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill Friday aimed at limiting the president's ability to draw down the nation's Strategic Petroleum Reserve for any reason other than a "severe energy supply disruption." Friday's legislation marked the second time that the GOP-controlled House has passed a bill related to the SPR. Following Friday's passage, the bill's chief sponsor, House Energy and Commerce Committee Chair Cathy McMorris Rodgers, applauded the vote. "President Biden has turned a longtime bipartisan strategic asset, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, into a political tool to cover up the consequences of his expensive rush-to-green agenda," she said in a statement.

☆ U.S. House backs bill limiting drawdowns from oil reserve
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

WASHINGTON, Jan 27 (Reuters) - The U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill on Friday limiting the ability of the energy secretary to tap the strategic oil reserve without developing plans to increase the amount of public lands available for oil and gas drilling. The bill is expected to face an uphill battle in the Senate, which unlike the House, is controlled by Biden's fellow Democrats. "The SPR should be used as a tool of ‘last resort,'" said Representative Cathy McMorris Rodgers, the chair of the House Energy and Commerce Committee and co-sponsor of the bill. The Biden administration has said it sold the oil to counter gasoline prices that had risen to $5.00 a gallon that helped fuel inflation to the highest in decades. U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm told reporters at the White House this week that Biden "will not allow the American people to suffer because of the backwards agenda that House Republicans are advancing."

☆ U.S. House passes bill limiting drawdowns from strategic oil reserve
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-27 | by ( Timothy Gardner | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

WASHINGTON, Jan 27 (Reuters) - The U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill on Friday limiting the ability of the energy secretary to tap the strategic oil reserve without developing plans to increase the amount of public lands available for oil and gas drilling. President Joe Biden would veto the legislation should it pass Congress, the White House said this week. The bill is expected to face an uphill battle in the Senate, which unlike the House, is controlled by Biden's fellow Democrats. The SPR should be used only to address true emergencies, said Representative Cathy McMorris Rodgers, a Republican and chair of the House Energy and Commerce Committee. U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm told reporters at the White House this week that Biden "will not allow the American people to suffer because of the backwards agenda that House Republicans are advancing."

Biden repeatedly tapped the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) last year to manage rising gasoline prices and disruptions to supply caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. McMorris Rodgers now chairs the House Energy & Commerce Committee, after Republicans took over the chamber this month from Democrats. "This bill would significantly weaken this critical energy security tool, resulting in more oil supply shortages in times of crisis and higher gasoline prices for Americans," Granholm said in the letter to the House energy panel, first seen by Reuters. Rodgers said in an email the committee was still reviewing the letter, but that the bill would have "absolutely no effect" on the department's emergency authorities regarding the oil reserve. The White House has criticized the legislation, calling it "backwards" and an attempt by House Republicans to help oil companies make more profits.

Biden repeatedly tapped the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) last year to manage rising gasoline prices and supply disruptions caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The sales shrunk the SPR to about 380 million barrels, the lowest level since 1984, raising concerns about energy security. McMorris Rodgers now chairs the House Energy & Commerce Committee after Republicans took over the chamber earlier this month from Democrats. "This bill would significantly weaken this critical energy security tool, resulting in more oil supply shortages in times of crisis and higher gasoline prices for Americans," Granholm said in the letter to the House energy panel, which was first seen by Reuters. The White House has criticized the legislation, calling it "backwards" and an attempt by House Republicans to help oil companies make more profits.

☆ Column: Europe's gas price plunge churns up global coal markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Gavin Maguire | Thomson Reuters | Gavin Maguire Is The Global Energy Transition Columnist. He Was Previously Asia Commodities | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

However, thanks to a recent plunge in European natural gas prices - down 60% since December 1 on mild winter temperatures, filled storage tanks and diminished industrial use - European coal prices and demand have slumped so far in 2023. WIDE SPREADThe divergent tones of Europe's and Asia's coal markets are captured by the record-wide price spread between them. This week, that spread surpassed $200 a tonne as Asia-focused Newcastle coal prices held firm around $370 a tonne while European coal prices slumped to $165. Over the near term, such actions will likely narrow the arbitrage window by applying pressure to Asia's coal prices. Those high stocks have in turn been a major driver behind the gas price falls seen since December.

☆ A 33-year market vet shares why history shows stocks will likely fall more than 20% further before bottoming as a recession barrels toward the US economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-07 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

But Lebowitz thinks there's a much greater chance that a recession occurs, forcing the Fed to back off. And then there's the inverted yield curve, which has preceded every recession since the 1960s. RIA AdvisorsIt's also not a good environment for stocks because yield curve inversions have usually meant large downward earnings revisions, which haven't happened yet. RIA AdvisorsAnother look at history, Lebowitz said, shows that a recession has to be already underway before stocks can bottom out. The yield curve, Chicago PMI, and other analyses argue it's a matter of when but if a recession occurs.

☆ European natural gas prices return to pre-Ukraine war levels
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-29 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

EU energy ministers are wrangling over a proposed price cap on gas. LONDON — European natural gas prices fell this week to levels not seen since before Russia's invasion of Ukraine. At their peak in August, European gas prices topped 345 euros/MWh as Russia's weaponization of its natural gas exports to the rest of the continent in response to punitive EU sanctions, and sky-high temperatures over the summer, drove up demand while constricting supply. The spiking prices sent household energy bills soaring and have fueled a cost-of-living crisis across much of the continent. Goldman Sachs in November predicted a sharp fall in European gas prices in the coming months as nations gained a temporary upper hand on supply issues.

☆ Top Wall Street strategists see another roller-coaster year ahead with minimal returns for stocks
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-22 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

A brutal year for stocks has made Wall Street strategists cautious about what's ahead as most are forecasting a similarly bumpy 2023 with minimal returns. The S & P 500 could tumble more than 16% from Wednesday's close to 3,250 before a strong rally to end 2023 higher. He sees the S & P 500 dropping 20% to the 3,000-3,300 level by the first quarter of next year. The firm noted that S & P 500 companies' third-quarter reports showed margins contracted year over year for the first time since the pandemic. If the economy goes into a recession, Goldman said, the S & P 500 would decline to 3,150.

☆ $3.2 trillion State Street shares their 3-part strategy for driving returns in 2023 as the economy falters and enters a recession
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The bad news for investors in 2023, according to Michael Arone, is that a recession is likely to hit the US economy. State Street Global Advisors currently has $3.2 trillion in assets under management. State Street Global AdvisorsWhat's more, Arone said, is high-dividend stocks also outperform in high-inflation environments like the current one. State Street Global AdvisorsThe Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (VYM) is one way to gain exposure to high-dividend stocks. State Street Global AdvisorsSemiconductor stocks are also historically undervalued, Arone said.

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