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☆ Markets saw a dovish Fed hike but Powell's warning on credit conditions spooked investors
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Are we going to celebrate the end of Fed rate hikes because things have started to hit the fan?" Strategists pointed to Powell's comment that financial conditions may have tightened more than it appears in traditional market measures, which would be stocks and bond spreads. "Number one, he remains unwavering on inflation, and he does acknowledge he sees a tightening of credit conditions. Briggs also called out Powell's comments about the impact from credit tightening , and the effect those actions can have. "That tightening via credit conditions can take the place of hikes (and vice versa if we don't get tighter credit conditions)," he said. "

☆ Hard for EMs to rally if U.S. is in turmoil, says portfolio manager
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHard for emerging markets to rally sharply as long as the U.S. is in turmoil: Portfolio managerDerrick Irwin of Allspring Global Investments says two "very big" tailwinds to emerging market stocks are a weaker U.S. dollar and a more dovish Federal Reserve.

☆ Analysis: SVB collapse unleashes Treasury volatility, whiplashing investors
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Carolina Mandl | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

[1/2] Customers wait in line outside a branch of the Silicon Valley Bank in Wellesley, Massachusetts, U.S., March 13, 2023. REUTERS/Brian SnyderNEW YORK, March 14 (Reuters) - Extreme volatility is rattling U.S. Treasury markets in the wake of Silicon Valley Bank's (SIVB.O) collapse and investors fear a prolonged bout of gyrations before calm returns to bond markets. The Fed chief's hawkish message helped push yields, which move inversely to prices, to their highest levels in years. As investors piled back into Treasuries, yields plummeted. Over the longer term, sustained rate volatility is unlikely to be good for stocks, said Purves, of Tallbacken Capital.

☆ How to position your portfolio following the Silicon Valley Bank fiasco — and why markets are wrongly anticipating a Fed pivot — according to a researcher whose clients include Wall Street's top money
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank were shut by regulators in recent days. Following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank over the last few days, some market participants are expecting the Federal Reserve to back off from its hawkish stance. Goldman Sachs' Chief US Economist Jan Hatzius said on Sunday night that he expects the Fed not to hike rates at its next meeting before resuming them later in the spring. The Fed's next moves are relevant to recent events because higher interest rates contributed to the downfall of Silicon Valley Bank. For example, Jeffrey Gundlach, the CEO of DoubleLine Capital, told CNBC on Monday that the central bank will hike rates by 25 basis points at its next meeting.

☆ Analysis: Rebounding U.S. dollar a growing headache for investors
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

NEW YORK, March 1 (Reuters) - Investors reeling from the recent volatility in global financial markets are eyeing another potential worry: a rebounding dollar. MSCI’s index for emerging market stocks (.MSCIEF) has slipped 8% from its January highs, while the MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index (.MIEM00000CUS) is down 3% from its early February high. "A stronger dollar poses a problem for risk assets," said Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments. The dollar's recent rebound has weighed on various risk assetsBecause of the dollar's central role in the global financial system, its fluctuations have widespread repercussions. Whether the dollar continues its rebound will depend in part on investors' perceptions of how much higher the Fed will need to raise interest rates.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Markets fall on hot economy — and chance of 0.5% interest rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. With each hotter-than-expected inflation report, markets rose. Markets had widely anticipated, and priced in, 25 basis-point interest rate hikes for the Fed's next two meetings. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester echoed Bullard's hawkishness, saying she wants higher rate increases. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Markets drop on hot economy — and chance of 0.5% interest rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

James Bullard, president of Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, at the Jackson Hole economic symposium, in Moran, Wyoming, U.S., on Thursday, Aug. 22, 2019. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. With each hotter-than-expected inflation report, markets rose. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester echoed Bullard's hawkishness, saying she wants higher rate increases. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

☆ Stock futures are little changed as investors ready for latest inflation data: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-13 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stock futures are near flat Monday night as investors look to Tuesday's inflation data. Meanwhile, S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures also both traded near flat. That marked a turn from last week, when the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 posted their worst weekly performances since December. Market observers expect the S&P 500 could swing in either direction following the release of the data. Beyond the CPI, investors will also be watching for earnings from Coca-Cola , Restaurant Brands International and Airbnb for insights into the health of the consumer.

☆ Inflation has a 75% chance of rebounding or staying high, and the Fed could crush the economy in its attempt to fight it, Mohamed El-Erian says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Inflation has a 75% chance of rebounding, according to top economist Mohamed El-Erian. El-Erian warned inflation could remain sticky at 4%, and the Fed could spark a recession. But that optimism is premature, El-Erian warned, as inflation has a significant chance of rebounding or remaining elevated. He estimated that there was only a 25% chance of inflation steadily declining from here, and a 25% chance that prices would bounce back sharply, causing a "U inflation" scare. Bank of America also warned of rebounding inflation, which could flip the stock market upside down, analysts said.

☆ Morningstar: These 10 top stocks have strong cash flow, smart management teams, and are trading way below fair market value — making them the perfect investments to add to your portfolio as the chance
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-05 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Here are Morningstar's top 10 stock picks that are trading as much as 35% below fair market value. 2023 has barely begun, but the stock market is already off to the races. But the ongoing market rally has revealed investors' newfound optimism around peaking inflation, China's reopening, and hopes for a dovish Federal Reserve pivot sometime this year. Still, the question remains: is this finally the bull market rally investors have been waiting for, or is it doomed to eventually collapse? The full list of 10 stocks is below, along with each firm's ticker, industry, market capitalization, and current price-to-fair value ratio.

☆ Bond investors brace for recession as Fed expected to slow pace of tightening
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The rally comes after Treasuries notched the worst year in their history following the Fed's most aggressive monetary policy tightening since the 1980s. Some equity investors are nevertheless playing it safe, expecting the current rally in stocks to wilt if a recession hits. For now, many investors are wedded to a more dovish view, betting that policymakers will blink if growth starts to slow. "The Fed is closer to the end than the beginning, and rates usually fall across the curve when the Fed is finished raising rates." Of course, some investors are happy to take the central bank at its word and are betting rates stay higher for longer.

☆ A top fund that returned over 19% last year is betting global bond markets are about to get blindsided again
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

A fund that bet correctly last year on surprise reversals in British and Japanese bonds has a new contrarian stance. BlueBay Asset Management believes bond markets have underestimated hawkishness from global central banks. The fund has a new contrarian bet as BlueBay believes bond markets have underestimated hawkishness from global central banks. More monetary tightening is also anticipated from the Bank of England and European Central Bank on Thursday. So far, central bank officials have committed themselves to remaining data-dependent to inform future rate hikes.

☆ Technical analysts agree January's strong start is a good omen, but here's what they expect to happen next
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Redler expects the S & P 500 could reach 3,980 to 4,000 before reversing lower. The S & P 500 was trading at about 3,940 on Monday. He expects the S & P 500 to put in a near-term top this week. He is watching the 200-day moving average on the S & P 500, which is literally the average of the last 200 closes. "The SPX [S & P 500] has spent the majority of the last three weeks between 3,800 and 3,900," Krinsky wrote in a note.

☆ Here's your complete guide to navigating the stock market in 2023 — including over 100 investing ideas from top fund managers and firms
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-28 | by ( Business Insider | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Energy stocks crushed the market for the second straight year as oil prices surged to 14-year highs after Russia unexpectedly mounted an invasion of Ukraine. With the S&P 500 down 20% year-to-date, many top investment firms believe a recession is inevitable and more market losses are likely next year. However, both bulls and bears see investing opportunities ahead, particularly at the start of the new year. Even if the economy contracts, many investment firms are bullish on stocks in the coming year, though others are far less optimistic. Top fund managers and investment firms see opportunities in several types of stocks next year across a number of sectors.

☆ Fundstrat's Tom Lee defends bold call of zero Fed rate hikes in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFundstrat's Tom Lee defends bold call of zero Fed rate hikes in 2023Tom Lee, Fundtrat Global Advisors co-founder, joins 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to defend his dovish Fed call that there will be no rate hikes in 2023.

☆ Watch CNBC’s full interview with Fundstrat's Tom Lee on why he thinks Fed won't hike rates in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with Fundstrat's Tom Lee on why he thinks Fed won't hike rates in 2023Tom Lee, Fundstrat Global Advisors co-founder, joins 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to defend his dovish Fed call that there will be no rate hikes in 2023.

☆ Goldman says it’s ‘difficult’ to envision a scenario where market goes substantially higher in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-12 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

"It is difficult to outline a realistic scenario that drives the S & P 500 substantially higher next year," David Kostin, Goldman's head of U.S. equity strategy, said in a note. The Wall Street firm said its base case is the S & P 500 will fall about 8% from here to 3,600 in the first half of 2023 before rallying 11% to 4,000 by the year-end. If the economy tips into a recession, Goldman said the S & P 500 would decline to 3,150. The S & P 500 fell into a bear market, and today stands more than 17% lower on the year. The firm noted that S & P 500 companies' third-quarter reports showed margins contracted year over year for the first time since the pandemic.

☆ Wall Street experts are warning that stocks are in for more trouble as a robust November jobs report is crushing investor hopes of a dovish Fed
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-03 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Stocks fell on Friday after the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced a robust November jobs report. But with the economy resilient, the Fed could continue to cause more pain for stocks going forward. November's jobs report, however, puts a pin the hopes of those anticipating easier policy sooner. He added: "Chairman Powell's speech earlier in the week was interpreted with a dovish lens, but that spin is likely to be reassessed based on the jobs report. Even before Friday's jobs report, some Wall Street strategists and money managers have been warning of further trouble ahead.

☆ Stock Market Crash: Expert Warns 58% Drop Still to Come
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-26 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The S&P 500 is down 16% on the year as the Fed tightens policy to fight inflation. The S&P 500 fell as much as 25% this year as the Federal Reserve pulled its support for the US economy. To return to normal valuation levels, the market would have to fall 58% further from where it sits currently, he said. The most bearish strategists among major Wall Street institutions see the S&P 500 falling to around the 3,000, about -25% assuming a recession plays out. He's more bearish than Wilson in the short term, however, with a three-month price target of 3,600 for the S&P 500.

☆ U.S. yields sink amid dovish Fed signals; HK stocks slip on COVID concerns
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-25 | by ( Kevin Buckland | Vivek Mishra | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The 10-year Treasury yield dipped to 3.659%, the lowest since Oct. 5 in Tokyo trading, after Thursday's U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. U.S. S&P 500 E-mini futures pointed 0.2% higher for the restart of Wall Street trading on Friday. Mainland Chinese blue chips (.CSI300), though, rose 0.51%, buoyed by government measures to support the real estate market. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures jumped 35 cents, or 0.5%, from Wednesday's close to $78.32 a barrel. Gold ticked 0.2% higher to $1,758.44 an ounce amid dollar weakness.

☆ European markets set for muted open to close out winning week on dovish Fed bets
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-25 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

European markets are set for a flat open on Friday to close out an upbeat week, as the U.S. Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes added to expectations that monetary policy tightening may slow down. The pan-European Stoxx 600 closed up 0.5% on Thursday, with a third straight session of gains taking it to a more than three-month high. "A substantial majority of participants judged that a slowing in the pace of increase would likely soon be appropriate," the minutes stated. European investors also reacted well to several economic data points over the course of the week that have indicated a slightly shallower recession than previously feared. Shares in Asia-Pacific were mostly lower on Friday, while U.S. markets were closed for Thanksgiving on Thursday and are set for an early close on Friday.

The risk-sensitive Aussie tumbled as Hong Kong's Hang Seng led a tech-driven slide in Asian equities. U.S. data overnight showed October retail sales rose 1.3%, compared with economist expectations for 1.0%, a healthy signal but one that dented hopes for a pause in rate increases. "The U.S. economy is driven by the consumer and if the consumer is still spending, it suggests it's going to take inflation longer to ease." Meanwhile, the Aussie dollar slumped 0.4% to $0.6715 as regional equities retreated, and failed to garner support from stronger-than-expected local jobs data. Sterling eased 0.23% to $1.18855, while the yen was more resilient, trading little changed at 139.50 per dollar.

☆ Morning Bid: Bear Hunt
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Long-term sovereign bond yields have been falling sharply all week in advance of finance minister Jeremy Hunt's new budget, dragged down largely by U.S. disinflation hopes. UK 10- and 30-year gilt yields outperformed, however, dropping to their lowest since early September before backing up slightly on Thursday. U.S. housing starts numbers out later will give another glimpse at the state of the ailing property sector. Reverberations continued around the world from this month's latest implosion in the crypto universe and the failure of the FTX exchange. Major crypto player Genesis Global Capital suspended customer redemptions in its lending business on Wednesday, citing the FTX collapse.

☆ October jobs report: Employers keep hiring, but unemployment rises
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( Chris Isidore | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

The report shows employers added 261,000 jobs in October and the unemployment rate rose to 3.7% from 3.5% in September. The unemployment rate is calculated using a separate survey of households rather than the employer survey used to count workers on the job. The higher-than-expected unemployment rate is also still low by historical standards — September’s 3.5% reading matched a half-century low. “Obviously, 261,000 jobs is great,” he told CNN in an interview Friday morning after the jobs report. But he acknowledged that even with the strong labor market, it’s high prices, not jobs, on the minds of most Americans.

☆ Wall Street surges to sharply higher close ahead of Fed week
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-28 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Analysts now see third-quarter S&P 500 earnings growth of 4.1%, up from 2.5% on Thursday, according to Refinitiv data. Of the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500, all but consumer discretionary stocks (.SPLRCD), weighed down by Amazon shares, ended the session green. Third-quarter reporting season has passed the halfway point, with 263 of the companies in the S&P 500 having reported. The S&P 500 posted 32 new 52-week highs and eight new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 117 new highs and 115 new lows. Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.26 billion shares, compared with the 11.53 billion average over the last 20 trading days.

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