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☆ Inflation is slowing. Here's why prices still aren’t going down
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-12 | by ( Charlotte Morabito | In Charlottemorabito | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

"I think it's no secret that prices are going up in pretty much every area right now," Lueke told CNBC. About two thirds, 65%, of U.S. adults surveyed by CNBC/SurveyMonkey this spring said inflation is the main driver of their financial stress. Disinflation, deflation and the 'money illusion'"I think Americans are a little perplexed when they see news reports of inflation coming down, and yet they don't notice any of their prices coming down," said Lindsay Owens, executive director of the nonprofit think tank Groundwork Collaborative. There's an important difference between inflation increasing more slowly — a phenomenon called disinflation — and inflation reversing itself, which would lead to prices coming down. When they do fall, it is typically a result of people spending less, which isn't currently the case.

Persons: Jenn Lueke, Lueke, Jennifer Lueke, Zac Staffiere, I'm, Lindsay Owens, isn't Organizations: CNBC Locations: Boston, U.S

☆ Why you should buy stocks ahead of next week's inflation report
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-10 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Investors should buy stocks ahead of next week's release of the April CPI report, according to Fundstrat's Tom Lee. An in-line CPI report or better would increase the chances of three interest rate cuts this year, Lee said. AdvertisementInvestors should buy stocks ahead of next week's release of the April CPI report, according to Fundstrat's Tom Lee. Sweden's Riskbank cut interest rates for the first time since 2016 on Wednesday, and the Bank of England signaled that interest rate cuts are imminent. And next week, we expect incoming data to show overall softening of the key components of inflation," Lee said.

Persons: Tom Lee, Lee, — Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Bank of England

☆ The UK has 'probably the most convincing disinflation story,' economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe UK has 'probably the most convincing disinflation story,' economist saysSanjay Raja, chief U.K. economist at Deutsche Bank, discusses the divergence between U.S. and U.K. central banks.

Persons: Sanjay Raja Organizations: Deutsche Bank

☆ Treasury yields inch higher as investors weigh interest rate outlook
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-08 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Yields and prices have an inverted relationship and one basis point equals 0.01%. ET the yield on the 10-year Treasury was up by more than 1 basis point at 4.479%. U.S. Treasury yields were slightly higher Wednesday as investors weighed the latest remarks from Federal Reserve officials, looking for clues on the path ahead for interest rates. Last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed was unlikely to hike rates at its next meeting. More comments from Fed officials are expected throughout the week, which investors will be scanning for hints about the monetary policy outlook.

Persons: Neel Kashkari, Tom Barkin, Jerome Powell Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal Reserve, Minneapolis, Richmond Fed

☆ US inflation will soar if America doesn't undergo reindustrialization, investment manager says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-07 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Prices in the US could keep going up if the US doesn't "reindustrialize" its economy, Richard Bernstein said. The US has a "massive" trade deficit at a time when world trade is becoming fragmented, he noted. AdvertisementInflation will climb higher if the US economy doesn't reindustrialize its economy, according to investment manager Richard Bernstein. World trade has become more fragmented since the pandemic, and rising geopolitical tensions are a sign that the trend is continuing, he said. If it doesn't … we're going to have tremendous inflation here in the United States," Bernstein said to CNBC on Monday.

Persons: Richard Bernstein, —, Bernstein, Ken Griffin Organizations: US, Service, Commerce Department, CNBC, JPMorgan Locations: United States, America

☆ Turkey's inflation accelerates to nearly 70% in April
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( Natasha Turak | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Turkey's inflation accelerated to 69.8% annually for the month of April, the Turkish Statistical Institute reported Friday. On a monthly basis, Turkey's inflation increased 3.18%, led by price rises in alcoholic beverages and tobacco, and hotels, cafes and restaurants. April's inflation rate marks the highest annual increase since November 2022, when inflation was around 85%. But any hopes of interest rate cuts are a long way off, economists said. Turkey's central bank has hiked its key interest rate to 50%, citing the continuing need to counter climbing inflation in the country.

Persons: Kemal Ataturk, April's, Liam Peach Organizations: Turkish, Turkish Statistical Institute, Economics Locations: Turkish, Sisli, Istanbul, Turkey, London

☆ Markets jump higher after softer-than-expected jobs report fuels hopes of an earlier rate cut
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

The unemployment rate ticked higher as well, to 3.9% from 3.8% the month before. That’s because the Federal Reserve is working to slow the economy by hiking interest rates — the only tool it has to fight inflation. A still-robust job market means the central bank could continue to keep rates elevated without fear of sending the economy into a recession. If the labor market weakens, the Fed is more likely to consider a rate cut. “We’re also prepared to respond to an unexpected weakening in the labor market,” he said.

Persons: Dow, “, ”, Matt Peron, Janus Henderson, They’re, Jerome Powell, “ We’re Organizations: New, New York CNN, Nasdaq, of Labor Statistics, Wall, Federal Reserve, Janus, Janus Henderson Investors, ”, Treasury, Apple Locations: New York

☆ The stock market's sell-off is over and the Fed gave 5 bullish signs to investors at its latest meeting, Fundstrat's Tom Lee says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The sell-off that battered stocks in April probably won't stretch into May, according to Fundstrat's Tom Lee. AdvertisementThe stock market's sell-off could be over, and five bullish signals the Fed gave at its latest policy meeting are setting the stage for gains in May, according to Fundstrat's head of research Tom Lee. Investors are now pricing in a 69% chance the Fed could rate rates once or twice by the end of the year, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Stock investors have already perked up on a brighter outlook for Fed rate cuts this year. Stocks reacted positively to the Wednesday Fed meeting.

Persons: Tom Lee, Lee, —, Powell, presser, Stocks Organizations: Service, Markets, Fed, stagflation, Investors

☆ The stock rally is masking stagflation risk raised by the latest GDP report, JPMorgan says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

JPMorgan says the recent stock rebound driven by robust earnings masks looming stagflationary risks. The soft landing narrative is challenged by the first-quarter GDP report. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe recent rally in the stock market, bolstered by a wave of upbeat earnings, is glossing over a host of risks raised by the latest economic data points, JPMorgan said this week. Jamie Dimon and other experts are sounding the alarm, saying the US might be headed for a 1970s-style scenario, complete with a stock market crash.

Persons: —, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, hasn't, Jamie Dimon Organizations: JPMorgan, Service, Microsoft

☆ Invesco: Expect one to two Fed rate cuts this year
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInvesco: Expect one to two Fed rate cuts this yearBen Gutteridge, director of model portfolio services at Invesco, says "the very latest would be December, but I think there is a chance it comes before that if the wage data continues to show disinflation."

Persons: Ben Gutteridge Locations: Invesco

☆ Europe’s Policymakers Get Ready to Lower Rates, Regardless of the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-25 | by ( Eshe Nelson | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Europe’s central bankers are trying to get out of the shadow of the United States. Now, European Central Bank policymakers are emphasizing how much the inflation problem has eased in the eurozone. All week, Europe’s policymakers reiterated their growing confidence that high inflation was dissipating in the eurozone and that their 2 percent inflation target was in sight. The E.C.B., which sets interest rates for all 20 countries that use the euro, has signaled it could cut rates at its next policy meeting in early June. “We’re clearly in a disinflation process,” said Gabriel Makhlouf, governor of Ireland’s central bank and one of the 26 members of the E.C.B.’s governing council.

Persons: “ We’re, ”, Gabriel Makhlouf Organizations: European Central Bank, International Monetary Fund, World Bank Locations: United States, Washington, Ireland’s, U.S

☆ Firm dollar drags yen down closer to intervention range
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

A firm U.S. dollar had the yen locked near a fresh 34-year low on Tuesday, keeping investors on heightened intervention watch as they looked ahead to key U.S. inflation report and the Bank of Japan's rate decision this week. A firm U.S. dollar had the yen locked near a fresh 34-year low on Tuesday, keeping investors on heightened intervention watch as they looked ahead to key U.S. inflation report and the Bank of Japan's rate decision this week. Traders have been keeping wary eye as yen slips towards 155.00, a level considered by many participants as the new trigger for intervention by Japanese authorities. The weak yen complicates the BOJ's policy path, with some market players betting the central bank could come under pressure to hike rates sooner than it wants to slow the currency's decline. Markets are currently pricing in a 46% chance of the Fed's first rate cut starting in September, with November not far behind at 42%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Persons: Carol Kong, Shunichi Suzuki, BoE, Sterling, bitcoin Organizations: Bank of, Traders, Bank of Japan's, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Japan's Finance, Federal Reserve, Investors, Commonwealth Bank of Australia's, European Central Bank, Bank of England Locations: Japan, Iran, Israel, Tokyo, Japan's, U.S, Commonwealth Bank of Australia's Kong

☆ BNP Paribas forecasting further disinflation in housing market, says Chief U.S. Economist Riccadonna
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBNP Paribas forecasting further disinflation in housing market, says Chief U.S. Economist RiccadonnaCarl Riccadonna, chief U.S. economist at BNP Paribas, and CNBC's Steve Liesman join 'The Exchange' to share their reactions to the 2Y Treasury auction, outlooks for housing and inflation, and more.

Persons: Riccadonna Carl Riccadonna, Steve Liesman Organizations: BNP, BNP Paribas, Treasury

☆ Bank of England to cut rates in May, Morgan Stanley says, retaining contrarian call
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-18 | by ( Karen Gilchrist | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The Bank of England could still cut interest rates in May, Morgan Stanley has said, in an increasingly rare call of confidence as market sentiment supporting such a move wanes. "We still entertain a May rate cut," chief economist Jens Eisenschmidt told CNBC's "Street Signs" on Wednesday, reiterating the bank's commitment to an earlier call. The Wall Street bank's contrarian view is now some way off consensus, which currently prices in an initial BOE rate cut in September, according to LSEG data. "In general, the central banks are all, to some extent, in the same boat. Morgan Stanley on Monday revised its ECB rate cut forecast, following an earlier revision in its Fed outlook.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Jens Eisenschmidt, CNBC's, BOE, Andrew Bailey, Morgan Stanley's, Eisenschmidt, there's Organizations: Bank of England, European Central Bank, ECB Locations: City of London, London, United Kingdom, Europe, U.S

Alex Kraus | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesEuropean Central Bank policymaker Joachim Nagel said Wednesday that a rate cut for the institution looks increasingly likely for June, but added that certain parts of the incoming inflation data still look higher than desired. watch nowEarlier Wednesday, Mario Centeno, governor of Portugal's central bank, said it was "about time to change this monetary policy cycle." The ECB's June interest rate decision would be "very important," he said. Markets are widely pricing in the first rate cut from the ECB to take place in June. watch nowEarlier this week, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that unless there were any major shocks, the ECB was on track to cut interest rates soon.

Persons: Joachim Nagel, Alex Kraus, Central Bank policymaker Joachim Nagel, Germany's Bundesbank, Karen Tso, " Nagel, —, Mario Centeno, CNBC's Tso, Christine Lagarde, disinflation, CNBC's Sara Eisen, Robert Holzmann, Holzmann, wasn't Organizations: Deutsche Bundesbank, Bloomberg Television, Bloomberg, Getty, Central Bank, ECB Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Washington ,, Europe, Portugal's, Austrian, East

☆ If this is a stock market correction, here's how history says it will unfold
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-16 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The recent retreat in the stock market has made many worried about a deeper correction. Lingering inflation concerns, rising Treasury yields and a shifting outlook for Federal Reserve interest rate policy prompted a market pullback, with the S & P 500 almost 4% off its 52-week high as of Tuesday. A correction is defined as a 10% decline in one of the major U.S. stock indexes, typically the S & P 500 or Dow Jones Industrial Average, from a recent 52-week high close. .SPX 1Y mountain S & P 500 More to go? The heightened geopolitical risk led U.K. investment bank Liberum Capital to call for oil to surge to $100 and a stock market correction as big as 10%.

Persons: Sam Stovall, it's, Stovall, Jonathan Krinsky, Krinsky, Marko Kolanovic Organizations: Federal Reserve, CFRA Research, Dow Jones Locations: U.S

☆ A CIO details 4 reasons why the recent inflation spike is temporary — and says the Fed will still cut rates 3 times this year
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-15 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Raymond James' CIO also explained why he still sees the Fed cutting interest rates three times in 2024. But according to Raymond James chief investment officer Larry Adam, inflation is set to reverse lower and the Fed is going to cut interest rates at least three times this year. AdvertisementIf the economy slows, then so should inflation, and it should give the Fed more confidence to begin cutting interest rates. Real-time inflation metrics show a sharp declineWhile official government metrics show stubbornly high rent and used vehicle prices, real-time measures show considerably lower prices. The point is: there should be plenty of disinflation in the pipeline as CPI converges with some of these more real-time metrics," Adam said.

Persons: Raymond James, Larry Adam, Adam Organizations: Reserve, Fed, Labor, ISM Manufacturing, ISM

☆ Stocks are undergoing a needed, and (so far) modest, pullback in a longer-term bull market
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-13 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

The result was a 1.5-percent weekly drop in the S & P 500 , with Friday's setback exacerbated at least somewhat by a collective clenching-up of risk markets on some geopolitical worry. This dynamic hasn't been reversed, but the signal has grown a bit staticky, draining some conviction from the macro bullish case with the S & P 500 still 24% above the October low. Bull market's backdrop First, it's a bull market, and not a particularly mature or excessively generous one yet. Yet both stocks are still outperforming the S & P this year. The S & P 500 closed Friday at exactly the same level of five weeks earlier, on March 8 – which was perhaps the moment of maximum investor confidence in the "we can have it all" thesis.

Persons: I've, Jerome Powell, Powell, Wall, it's, We're, John Butters, Fastenal, Scott Chronert Organizations: Federal, ICE, Treasury, CPI, Fed, Grainger, Citi

☆ Surging inflation fears sent markets tumbling and Fed officials scrambling
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-13 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

Energy prices, which have been a major factor in the past two months' inflation readings, pushed higher on signs of further geopolitical turmoil. Minutes released Wednesday from the March Fed meeting showed officials were concerned about higher inflation and looking for more convincing evidence it is on a steady path lower. Sticky price CPI entails items such as housing, motor vehicle insurance and medical care services, while flexible price is concentrated in food, energy and vehicle prices. "If that's the case, you would require a decent amount of unemployment to get inflation all the way to 2.0%." That's why Furman and others have pushed for the Fed to rethink it's determined commitment to 2% inflation.

Persons: Spencer Platt, —, Stocks, Jason Furman, We've, Israel, Jim Paulsen, Wells, Substack, Paulsen, Furman, Barack Obama, Jamie Dimon, John Williams, Susan Collins, it's, Larry Fink Organizations: Getty, Investors, Dow Jones, CNBC, of Economic Advisers, New York Fed, National Federation of Independent Business, Labor Department, JPMorgan, University of Michigan's, Boston, Commerce, CPI, Citigroup, Fed, Atlanta Fed, Dallas Fed, Harvard, BlackRock Locations: Manhattan, New York City, Iran, Israel

☆ Americans’ attitudes toward the economy hold steady despite disappointing inflation reports
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-12 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Washington CNN —Americans haven’t felt any better about the economy these past few months, but they haven’t felt any worse either. The Federal Reserve cares whether or not Americans have faith that inflation will eventually return to levels they’re used to. Consumer prices were 3.5% higher in March from a year earlier, a much bigger increase than February’s 3.2% and above what economists were forecasting. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.4%, also above expectations. The economy is coming into focusEveryday Americans, on the other hand, haven’t fretted about progress on inflation potentially stalling.

Persons: haven’t, ”, Joanne Hsu, ” Oren Klachkin, Stocks, Goldman Sachs, “, ” Goldman Sachs’s, Jan Hatzius, they’re, Joe Biden, Biden, Donald Trump Organizations: Washington CNN, University of Michigan’s, Consumers, Nationwide, CPI, Bank of America, CNN Locations: Pennsylvania, Scranton , Pennsylvania

☆ The Fed might not be done raising interest rates just yet
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-11 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Inflation slowed substantially in 2023 as the Fed lifted rates to nearly a quarter-century high and held them at that level since July. Still, most Fed officials have signaled that they plan to cut rates this year if the economy evolves as expected. And if the inflation situation worsens even further, the Fed may even have to consider raising rates. Like Bowman and Kashkari, New York Fed President John Williams said rate hikes aren’t part of his baseline outlook. The timing of that first rate cut is critical because if the Fed cuts too soon, it risks locking in inflation at a high level.

Persons: hasn’t, Michelle Bowman, Neel Kashkari, Bowman, John Williams, he’s, ” Williams, Williams, Jerome Powell, Susan Collins, ” Collins, Powell, Larry Summers, ” Summers, Summers, Goldman Sachs, ” Organizations: CNN, Wall, Federal Reserve, ” Minneapolis, Kashkari , New York Fed, Boston, CPI, Bloomberg, UBS, Barclays, Bank of America Locations: Kashkari , New

☆ European Central Bank gives strong signal that cuts are on the way despite Fed uncertainty
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-11 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank (ECB), at a rates decision news conference in Frankfurt, Germany, on Thursday, March 7, 2024. The European Central Bank on Thursday held interest rates steady for a fifth straight meeting and gave its clearest signal yet of an upcoming rate cut, despite uncertainty over the U.S. Federal Reserve's next moves. In a press conference following the announcement, ECB President Christine Lagarde said this "important" new sentence was a "loud and clear indication" of the bank's current sentiment. The ECB made no direct reference to loosening monetary policy in its previous communiques. The central bank for the 20 countries that share the euro currency hiked its key rate to a record 4% in September.

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Hussain Mehdi Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, U.S, U.S . Federal, HSBC Asset Management Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, U.S .

☆ Here’s the inflation breakdown for March 2024 — in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-10 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

"The big rock in the way here is the cost of shelter," Zandi said. In fact, underlying inflation after stripping out shelter costs is already back to target, Zandi said. watch nowThe increase is largely attributable to higher oil prices. "For most Americans, the thing that bothers them the most about inflation is high food prices." Americans' buying patterns also simultaneously shifted away from services — like entertainment and travel — toward physical goods since they stayed at home more, driving up demand and fueling decades-high goods inflation.

Persons: Eric Thayer, That's, Mark Zandi, Zandi, It's, Hamrick, They're, Sarah House Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, U.S . Labor Department, Moody's, of Labor Statistics, U.S, Energy Information Administration, BLS, Wells, Wells Fargo Economics Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo

☆ Live Updates: Inflation Expected to Remain Stubborn
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-10 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +4 min

Policymakers have made it clear that they want to see further evidence that inflation is cooling before they cut interest rates. But Fed officials do not want to cut rates before they are confident that inflation is on track to return to normal. That threat of lingering inflation has become a more serious concern for policymakers since the start of the year. Inflation has flatlined in recent months after months of steady declines, raising some alarm at the Fed and among forecasters. Going into the year, investors expected the Fed to cut rates sharply in 2024 — to about 4 percent — but have dialed back those expectations.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Laura Rosner, Warburton, it’s, you’ve, ” Organizations: Federal, Fed, Goldman, Deutsche Bank Locations: Central

☆ The March inflation data lowered rate cut expectations. Here's why stocks could take that in stride
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-10 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Investors had lately been hoping the Fed might start easing back on policy starting in June, with three rate cuts penciled in for the year. But a robust labor market, as reflected in last week's March payrolls, and this latest consumer inflation data have pushed back that view. Markets now anticipate the first cut might come in September, with just two quarter-point reductions for the whole year. Even so, investors anticipate that markets may be able to take fewer rate cuts in stride so long as the Fed isn't actually forced to raise rates. Varghese still leans toward equities, expecting as many as three rate cuts this year, though he anticipates the first cut might not come until July now.

Persons: Federal Reserve doesn't, Stocks, isn't, Ayako Yoshioka, Yoshioka, Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, Sonu Varghese, Varghese, Powell, they're Organizations: Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Carson Group, CPI

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