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How the Federal Reserve plans to proceed with interest rates will be in focus next week after some recent signs of hotter inflation muddied the outlook. In December, policymakers had penciled in at least three quarter percentage point rate cuts in 2024. On Friday, stocks were headed for a losing week even after the S & P 500, for example, notched a fresh closing record just this week. The chipmaker will be under increased scrutiny next week as CEO Jensen Huang takes the stage for the company's annual AI conference. TD Wealth's Vaidya anticipates four rate cuts coming in the third and fourth quarters, though he said that outlook will remain data dependent.
Persons: Sid Vaidya, Jensen Huang, Lorie Logan, Molly McGown, McGown, Brian Nick, Wealth's Vaidya, Nick, Mills, , Samantha Subin Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Nvidia, Dallas, TD Securities, Securities, McGown, Bank of America, Housing, Micron Technology, Philadelphia Fed, PMI, PMI Manufacturing, PMI Services SA, Nike, FedEx, Darden Locations: U.S, NAHB
The S & P 500 Volatility Index finished the week near 15 and is in a clear three- month uptrend from its mid-December low near 12, even as the S & P 500 has gained 10% since then. In fact, Friday the market minimized the headline damage to a mere two-thirds-percent dip in the S & P 500 through its signature rotational impulse. Some indicators — such as speculators remaining net short S & P 500 futures and brokerage strategists' muted index targets — imply the helpful wall of worry is not quite fully scaled. Since then, the S & P has delivered a 16.7% annualized total return, even after two bear markets and two other severe/prolonged corrections. And the S & P is only up 7% from its high 26 months ago, hardly in thin air.
Persons: what's, Eli Lilly, Martin Marietta, Nick Colas, Scott Chronert Organizations: Federal, Nvidia, Costco, pharma, Martin Marietta Materials, Vulcan, 3Fourteen Research, NYSE, Nasdaq, DataTrek, Citi
Mortgage rates have been holding steady after rising last month, and they could stay near their current levels throughout March. This means that mortgage rates will likely remain elevated for at least a few more months. But investor expectations how of Fed rate changes could impact the broader economy can push mortgage rates up or down. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's interest rates will affect your monthly payments. 15-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesAverage 15-year mortgage rates inched down to 6.26% last week, according to Freddie Mac data.
Persons: you'll, Freddie Mac, it's, they've Organizations: Federal Reserve, Zillow Locations: Chevron
Meanwhile, its financial markets are bleeding, the property market has gone up in smoke, local government debt appears alarming, and foreign investors are exiting in droves. Real estate — which was a huge part of China's economy — has been hit badly, he said. AdvertisementTravel has picked up after years of pandemic lockdownServices is another pillar of China's economy that Beijing has been trying to build up. AdvertisementThis is in part because new growth industries are not able to take the place of real estate — yet. Because the property market accounts for one-quarter of China's GDP and more than two-thirds of household wealth, its overall drag on China's economy is much greater than whatever is doing well right now.
Persons: , Rory Green, GlobalData.TS Lombard, AllianceBernstein, John Lin, Lin, Donald Trump's, Louise Loo, Wood Mackenzie, AllianceBerstein's Lin, Nomura, Loo Organizations: Service, Business, Bloomberg TV, Oxford Economics, Nomura, Oxford Locations: China, GlobalData.TS, Real, COVID, Beijing, Europe, Taiwan, South Korea
With markets on edge over the direction of inflation, a report Thursday that often flies under the economic radar is likely to take on more importance. The Commerce Department's measure of personal consumption expenditures prices could add to evidence that inflation is stickier than some economists and policymakers had thought. Two-year inflation breakevens, or the difference between Treasury yields and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, have surged in recent days. "But I think the labor market is a lot more fragile than people think. A report Wednesday confirmed that economic growth was solid to close out 2023, with fourth-quarter GDP accelerating at a 3.2% annualized pace adjusted for seasonal factors and inflation.
Persons: Mark Zandi, Zandi, shouldn't, we're, it's, , Susan Collins, Collins, Dow Jones, Dow, Michelle Cluver, Cluver, I've Organizations: Moody's, Boston, Securities, Treasury, Fed, Labor, CPI, Dow Jones, optimist Locations: U.S
Strong economic data has pushed back expectations of when mortgage rates will drop, but experts still believe they'll go down this year. This means that mortgage rates may remain elevated for at least a few more months. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates would impact your monthly payments. 15-year Fixed Mortgage RatesLast week, average 15-year mortgage rates were 6.29%, a 17-basis-point increase from the previous week, according to Freddie Mac data. Once the Fed cuts rates, mortgage rates should fall even further.
Persons: they'll, Fannie Mae, Doug Duncan, Freddie Mac, you'll, it's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Zillow Locations: Chevron
download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Walmart is cutting prices on essentials like eggs and breadInflation has cooled in recent months after soaring during the pandemic. "Some of this is the result of customer acquisition becoming more modest, and some is because of the continued financial pressure on core Walmart shoppers which is seeing them cut back on non-essential spending," he wrote. Saunders noted that lower levels of inflation would make it harder for Walmart to acquire new customers. "This essentially puts Walmart in the position of having to work far harder and more creatively to generate growth," he wrote.
Persons: Walmart's, , John David Rainey, Rainey, Neil Saunders, Saunders, Doug McMillon, McMillon, John Furner, Furner Organizations: Walmart, Service, GlobalData, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Shoppers
Here are Tuesday's biggest calls on Wall Street: Morgan Stanley downgrades Oatly to equal weight from overweight Morgan Stanley resumed coverage of the oats company and said it sees too many negative catalysts. " Morgan Stanley reiterates Tesla as overweight Morgan Stanley said it's sticking with Tesla despite a slew of negative data points in a recent investor survey. Morgan Stanley reiterates Nvidia as overweight Morgan Stanley said it's standing by Nvidia heading into earnings later this week. Morgan Stanley initiates CG Oncology as buy Morgan Stanley said shares of the bladder cancer company are "compelling." "We initiate coverage on Morgan Stanley Direct Lending with a Buy rating and $23.50 PT.
Persons: Morgan Stanley downgrades Oatly, Morgan Stanley, Tesla, Bernstein, Siri, it's, Disney, Ingersoll Rand, Rosenblatt, MSCI's, Goldman Sachs, Wolfe, Piper Sandler, Riley, Grainger, Northcoast, JPMorgan downgrades Holley Organizations: Apple, Nvidia, Disney, RBC, Aerospace, BAE Systems, Caterpillar, SMCI, Deutsche Bank, JetBlue, Alaska Air, ASM, Health, BrightSpring Health, Brunswick Corporation, Barclays, JPMorgan, Mizuho, Oncology, UBS, Morgan, Fund, Seaport, Booking Holdings, " Bank of America, AIG, Bank of America, General Insurance Locations: Silicon Valley, Alaska, Brunswick, MIBS, Texas, Europe, Asia
Surprise! Inflation Rises to Start the Year
  + stars: | 2024-02-13 | by ( Tim Smart | Feb. | At A.M. | ) www.usnews.com   time to read: +5 min
Still, that is considerably below where inflation was in 2022 and much of last year. Along with the health of the labor market, the Fed considers inflation among the key economic data points to watch as it looks to start cutting interest rates this year. “If inflation comes in below expectation, the markets will cheer the welcome news that the economy and the job market can remain solid without increasing inflation. On Friday, more inflation data will be released with the January producer price index – a measure of what businesses pay for the products and services they sell. The PPI is often a predictor of future inflation as it shows prices that are early in the pipeline and often passed on to consumers.
Persons: , Skyler Weinand, Regan, Venkat Balakrishnan, Jerome Powell, , Dan North, “ Powell, Melissa Brown, Signifyd, ” Signifyd Organizations: Labor, Federal Reserve, Dow, Industrial, Regan Capital, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Allianz Trade, , PPI Locations: North America
Elsewhere, Bank of America raised its price target on Nvidia, calling for more than 25% upside. 7:07 a.m.: Deutsche Bank deals latest blow to regional bank after earnings disappoint Deutsche Bank joined the post-earnings dogpile on New York Community Bank . Analyst Bernard von-Gizycki downgraded the regional bank to hold from buy and slashed to price target to $7 from $15. Analyst Alicia Yap upgraded the consumer internet stock to buy from neutral and raised her price target by $6 to $50. — Alex Harring 5:45 a.m.: Bank of America hikes Nvidia price target Don't expect Nvidia to lose momentum anytime soon, according to Bank of America.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Bernard von, Gizycki, — Alex Harring, There's, Alicia Yap, Sea's, Shopee, Alex Harring, what's, Tim Cook, Brandon Nispel, AAPL's, AAPL, Morgan Stanley, Erik Woodring, we're, Tim Long, Piper Sandler, Harsh Kumar, Meta, Ross Sandler, Benjamin Black, Mark Kelley, Bernstein, Mark Shmulik, LSEG, Rufus, Eric Sheridan, Brian Nowak, outsized, Brad Erickson, Vivek Arya, Fred Imbert Organizations: CNBC, Apple, Bank of America, Nvidia, Deutsche Bank, New York Community Bank, von, Investors, Traders, Citi, Nasdaq, Conference, Barclays, Vision, Meta, Wall Street, Amazon, RBC Capital, Enterprise, SAP, VMWare, Dell Locations: Wall, New, Thursday's, Friday's premarket, China, genAI, CY25
New York CNN —Earnings season is in full swing, and that means investors get a chance to hear from multinational companies about the state of the global economy. Some of the United States’ biggest companies are in the hot seat to answer questions about the economy, and where it could be headed. Like the rest of the US, companies are watching whether the economy could still tip into a recession as interest rates hover around a 23-year high. Achieving a soft landing, or a situation in which inflation comes down without an economic downturn, looks likely, some companies said. According to the UK government’s own estimates, the checks — including physical inspections from April — will cost British businesses about £330 million ($419 million) annually and increase food inflation by about 0.2 percentage points over three years.
Persons: it’s, , Michael Hsu, Kimberly, Clark, Blackstone, Stephen Schwarzman, Christophe Le Caillec, Jim Vondruska, We’re, Robert Isom, Lorenzo Simonelli, Baker Hughes, Alan Schnitzer, Elisabeth Buchwald, , Christopher Waller, Waller, Hanna Ziady, Read Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, United States ’, American, O'Hare Airport, Travelers Companies, , European Union Locations: New York, Chicago , Illinois, United Kingdom, Britain
Solid economic economic growth combined with decelerating inflation feels like the perfect combination for the Federal Reserve to dial down its restrictive monetary policy. More broadly, though, the resilient nature of the economy brought the Fed closer to its goal of arresting inflation without crushing growth. On the balance between the threat of overheating growth and the positive developments on inflation, Bovino thinks the Fed will be more inclined to cast a wary eye on the growth side. "They have their work cut out for them." "They want to make absolutely sure inflation is killed, and they're not going to cut rates until that is the case."
Persons: Beth Ann Bovino, there's, Bovino, they'll, Bill Adams, Jerome, Powell, Gus Faucher, haven't, Dan North, they're Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S . Bank, Commerce Department's, Economic, CME Group, Comerica Bank, Fed, PNC Financial Services, North America, Allianz Trade
Deutsche Bank is moving to the sidelines on shares of Netflix despite another solid quarter from the streaming giant. Analyst Bryan Kraft views the company as the "best story in media among the vertically integrated producers/programmers/distributors," but nevertheless downgraded Netflix to a hold rating. He said that its leadership position and good news look "fully priced" in to the stock already after its 65% runup in 2023. The downgrade from Deutsche Bank comes in the wake of another strong quarter from the dominant player in entertainment media . Netflix topped revenue estimates and added 13.1 million subscribers, easily topping the 8 million to 9 million additions expected by Wall Street analysts.
Persons: Bryan Kraft, Kraft, it's, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Deutsche Bank, Netflix, Wall Street, Kraft
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFormer Bank of Japan deputy governor discusses BOJ's January policy decisionBank of Japan can afford to wait on any decision to exit its negative rates policy partly because inflation is "decelerating a little bit," says Masazumi Wakatabe, former Bank of Japan deputy governor.
Persons: Masazumi Wakatabe Organizations: Former Bank of Japan, Bank of Japan
China was due Wednesday to release GDP figures for 2023, and previously announced an official target of around 5% growth for the year. Despite significant growth in sectors such as tourism and electric cars, China's economy last year did not rebound from the pandemic as quickly as many banks had initially expected. watch nowThe International Monetary Fund in November also cited China's policy announcements as a reason for its decision to raise the 2023 growth forecast to 5.4%, from 5% previously. However, the IMF said it still expected China's growth to slow in 2024 to 4.6% "amid continuing weakness in the property market and subdued external demand." In the long term, analysts generally expect China's economy to slow further from a high base.
Persons: Pan Jianyong, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Li Qiang, Haibin Zhu, Li Organizations: Co, Getty, Visual China, BEIJING —, Economic, Tuesday, UBS, Citi, JPMorgan, CNBC, China, China Economic, Monetary Fund Locations: MEISHAN, CHINA, Sichuan, Meishan, Sichuan Province, China, Davos, Beijing, decelerating
"For years, there was a semi-joke that some people in Big Tech go to LinkedIn to retire," a current engineer told BI. Amid a transformative year for the social network, LinkedIn spokesperson Nicole Leverich said the company has continued to prioritize its employees. The golden days of growthSome LinkedIn workers like to reminisce about what one engineer called the "golden days." AdvertisementLinkedIn rates its workers on a scale of one to five, seven workers told BI. AdvertisementA current engineering manager added that the goalposts for performance reviews had shifted.
Persons: , Satya Nadella, we've, It's, Nicole Leverich, Leverich, you'd, Mohak Shroff, ChatGPT, We're, Ryan Roslansky, Kelly Sullivan, he'd, hadn't, Roslanksy, Brian Wieser Organizations: Service, LinkedIn, Business, BI, Microsoft, Big Tech, Google Locations: Big, Madison
Still, despite the sharp drop in October, job openings remain at historically high levels. And the unemployment rate has come in below 4% for 21 straight months, the longest such streak since the 1960s. The unemployment rate is expected to have remained at 3.9%, according to a survey of forecasters by the data firm FactSet. Though unemployment remains low, 1.93 million Americans were collecting unemployment benefits in the week that ended Nov. 18, the most in two years. The cooling of the job market could mean a lessening of inflation pressures and less need for the Fed to keep interest rates high.
Persons: , Rubeela Farooqi, Organizations: WASHINGTON, , Labor, Federal Reserve, The Labor Department, Hollywood, Fed Locations: — U.S
REUTERS/Mike Segar/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Dec 4 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil production set a record for the second month running in September, highlighting the challenge to Saudi Arabia and its OPEC⁺ partners as they cut their own production to boost prices. Lower 48 production climbed to a record of 10.8 million b/d, surpassing the pre-pandemic peak of 10.5 million b/d set in December 2019. Drilling activity usually turns down around 4-5 months after prices and production turns down 10-12 months after prices fall. Production growth has slowed consistently since the middle of 2022 in response to the sharp fall in prices. Related columns:- U.S. oil output hits record as producers boost drilling efficiency (November 1, 2023)- U.S. oil producers reprieved by Saudi output cut (October 3, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.
Persons: Mike Segar, OPEC’s, John Kemp, Barbara Lewis Organizations: Bayway, REUTERS, OPEC, U.S . Energy Information Administration, Cooperation, Energy Information Administration, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Phillips, Linden , New Jersey, U.S, Saudi Arabia, Gulf of Mexico, Alaska, OPEC, United Kingdom, Russia, Soviet, Vienna, Brazil, Guyana, El, Saudi
The moon rises over the Toronto city skyline as seen from Milton, Ontario, Canada, January 23, 2016. REUTERS/Mark Blinch/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsTORONTO, Dec 4 (Reuters) - Canadian banks had a mixed fourth quarter but a common theme underlining all the reports was the rise in bad loan provisions, signalling that lenders were strapping in for a shaky economy. Impaired loans related to residential mortgages, real estate and construction were also higher from the prior quarter, indicating that the banks were also being cautious when considering underwriting new loans. He noted that despite the mixed results, the banks reported healthy capital levels, giving investors assurance that the banks remain resilient. Reuters Graphics($1 = 1.3559 Canadian dollars)Reporting by Nivedita Balu in Toronto; Editing by Mark PorterOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Mark Blinch, Verecan, Colin White, Dave McKay, Mike Archibald, Nivedita Balu, Mark Porter Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, Bank of Canada, BOC, Royal Bank of Canada, CIBC, National Bank, Scotiabank, BMO, RBC, Reuters Graphics Reuters, AGF Investments, Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: Toronto, Milton , Ontario, Canada
Mortgage rates fell dramatically last month, and they could drop further in 2024. Today, average 30-year mortgage rates are nearly 80 basis points down from where they were a month ago. As inflation continues to slow, mortgage rates should come down even more. This means that as long as inflation keeps decelerating, mortgage rates should come down. This means your entire monthly mortgage payment, including taxes and insurance, shouldn't exceed 28% of your pre-tax monthly income.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, you'll, Fannie Mae Organizations: Spelman College, Zillow, Mortgage, Association, Sky Locations: Atlanta, Chevron
Blackwells, run by Jason Aintabi, plans to nominate several directors to Wendy's 12-member board, said the sources, who asked not to be identified discussing confidential deliberations. It made no mention of any plans to challenge the Wendy's board. Wendy's reported adjusted third-quarter earnings per share of 27 cents last month, beating analysts' average estimate of 25 cents. Yet it posted same-restaurant sales growth of 2.8% globally and 2.2% for the United States that were lower than a year ago. In third quarter of 2022, Wendy's had reported global same-restaurant sales growth of 6.9% and U.S. same-restaurant sales growth of 6.4%.
Persons: Burger, Mario Anzuoni, Wendy's, Jason Aintabi, Nelson Peltz, Peter May, Matthew Peltz, Blackwells, Trian, Bob Iger, Peltz, Matthew H, McDonald's, Aintabi, John Foley, Foley, Svea Herbst, Bayliss, Chizu Nomiyama, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: Trian Fund Management, Walt Disney Co, Disney, Restaurant, International Inc, Burger, Interactive, Svea, Thomson Locations: Monrovia , California, North America, Wendy's, Dublin , Ohio, New York, United States, Rhode Island
The Federal Reserve is poised to cut interest rates six times in 2024, according to ING Economics. AdvertisementAn economy that is showing clear signs of decelerating means the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least six times in 2024, according to a Thursday note from ING Economics. Knightley expects the interest rate cuts to extend into 2025 with at least four 25 basis point interest rate cuts. And it might not break if the Fed can successfully ease interest rates lower before the economy enters a recession. UBS expects the Fed to cut interest rates by a whopping 275 basis points next year in response to a recession.
Persons: , James Knightley, Knightley Organizations: Federal, ING Economics, Service, Reserve, ING, Fed, UBS Locations: 1,841k
For investors cheering stocks' strong rally into the year end, Barclays warned that it could be eating into 2024's return. A number of macro news events sparked a relief rally in equities as 2023 begins to wrap up, with the S & P 500 registering four straight weeks of gains and climbing 8.5% in November. "Combined with year-end seasonality, the surge in institutional flows could push equities over their skis, essentially 'borrowing' 2024 returns and leaving less room for upside next year," he added. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 The firm expects only single-digit returns next year as modest economic deceleration offsets the benefit of easing inflation. Barclays raised its 2024 S & P 500 price target to 4,800, from 4,500 previously.
Persons: Venu Krishna, Krishna, dovish, Treasury QRA, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Barclays, Treasury, Big Tech, CNBC Pro's, Survey, Wall
According to Deloitte, the consumer spending slowdown is already starting. "The stellar US economic growth recorded in the third quarter was largely due to the strong growth in consumer spending. However, it is widely expected that consumer spending will decelerate in the holiday season, thereby putting financial stress on retailers and their suppliers." Spending intentions have plummetedThe negative trend in retail sales could continue, as spending intentions among Americans have plummeted over the past few months, according to Deloitte's spending intentions index. Americans' spending intentions are the lowest they've been all year.
Persons: , Ira Kalish, Kalish Organizations: Deloitte, Service, Wall, Conference, Survey
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe economy is going to be decelerating, says Virtus Investment’s Joe TerranovaJoe Terranova, Shannon Saccocia, and Bill Baruch join 'Halftime Report' to discuss the outlook for the latest market rally, the state of the economy, and more.
Persons: Virtus, Joe Terranova Joe Terranova, Shannon Saccocia, Bill Baruch
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