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That’s all that’s left until the combined Social Security accounts — the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund and the Disability Insurance Trust Fund — are likely to run out of money and can no longer pay full scheduled benefits, according to the latest report of the Social Security trustees. (Even with no fix at all — highly unlikely — incoming payroll taxes would cover 83 percent of scheduled benefits.) What I do worry about is what Washington’s patch for Social Security will look like. The cold math shows that fixing Social Security in a lasting way will require a combination of tax increases and benefit cuts. And both parties’ leaders — President Biden and former President Donald Trump — have ruled benefit cuts off the table.
Persons: — President Biden, Donald Trump — Organizations: Security, Insurance Trust Fund, Disability Insurance Trust Fund, Social, Social Security,
Apple executives knew they needed to upgrade Siri after they started using ChatGPT. The company's software chiefs spent weeks using the OpenAI chatbot before making the decision. AdvertisementApple executives realized their digital assistant Siri badly needed an upgrade after they began testing OpenAI's chatbot, ChatGPT. Unlike most tech giants, Apple has remained relatively coy about how it intends to compete in the field of AI. The Sam Altman-led AI company has long been on Apple's radar, with Cook admitting in an interview with Good Morning America last year that he, too, uses ChatGPT.
Persons: Siri, , Craig Federighi, John Giannandrea, Giannandrea, Tim Cook ., Apple didn't, Cook, hasn't, Sam Altman Organizations: Apple, Developers, Service, New York Times, BI, Developers Conference, coy, Microsoft, Meta, Google, Financial Times, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Street, OpenAI, Bloomberg, Good Morning America Locations: Cupertino
Trump also described inflation as “a country buster” that destroyed Germany, presumably referring to the hyperinflation of 1923, which was the year of Adolf Hitler’s failed beer-hall putsch. Even for Trump, who loves to work up a crowd, that’s too far. President Biden does have an inflation problem, but it’s not a Weimar Germany kind of problem. I won’t get into why Americans are so upset about inflation that they might choose Trump over Biden in November. I want to look at a different question, which is whether inflation would be lower if Trump won.
Persons: Donald Trump, , Trump, Adolf Hitler’s, Biden, it’s, States ’, Binyamin Appelbaum, Paul Krugman Organizations: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Biden, Trump Locations: Waukesha, Wis, Germany, Weimar Germany, States
When I asked new college graduates last month to tell me about their job searches, I got back a ton of heartache. For some, a sense that college was a waste of time and money. John York wrote that he was about to earn a master’s degree in mathematics from New York University. Utterly demoralizing,” wrote Beth Donnelly, who is graduating this month with a major in linguistics and minors in German and teaching English as a second language. “I’ve been searching since early August for full-time, part-time or internship positions after I graduate.
Persons: John York, , , he’s, ” Mauricio Naranjo, Beth Donnelly, I’ve Organizations: New York University, Financial Analysts
Bernie Sanders is running for reelection
  + stars: | 2024-05-06 | by ( Bryan Metzger | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +2 min
Sen. Bernie Sanders is running for reelection in 2024. The 82-year-old is the last senator to announce his reelection plans this year. AdvertisementSen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, the longest-serving independent in American history, will seek a 4th term in the US Senate later this year. He is the last US senator whose term ends in 2024 to announce whether or not he would seek reelection. Sanders is immensely popular in Vermont and is all but guaranteed to be reelected in November.
Persons: Sen, Bernie Sanders, , Bernie Sanders of, coy, Republican Sen, Chuck Grassley, Sanders, Hillary Clinton, Alexandria Ocasio, Cortez, Joe Biden, Long, Biden's, That's, Sanders —, he's Organizations: Service, Democratic, Republican, Democratic Party, Health, Education, Labor, Pensions Locations: Bernie Sanders of Vermont, Iowa, Vermont, Alexandria, Gaza, Israel
Others, including pro-Israel professors, have sought to build other avenues of support for students. Faculty members at Emory University and Columbia University are among those who have either taken or pushed for no-confidence votes in their school presidents. Some professors, faculty and staff members have gotten caught in police sweeps and arrested as law enforcement has moved to evict students and their tent encampments from campuses. He said the letter came together as colleagues expressed outrage over seeing some of their students caught in the clash and not receiving a response from some administrators when they pleaded for intervention. “There was a very clear sense from very early on, even as things were happening yesterday, that some response was imperative — that we couldn’t let something like this go unanswered,” he said.
Persons: Jim Ryan, Ian Baucom, Annelise Orleck, , , Erik Linstrum, “ there’s, Brian Coy, Ryan, Baucom, , ” Mr, Coy, Laura Goldblatt, they’re, Thomas Jefferson, Linstrum Organizations: University of Virginia, Israel, Emory University, Columbia University, Dartmouth College Locations: Charlottesville, Gaza, aggress
Opinion | The Case for Letting Mortgages Move With Us
  + stars: | 2024-05-06 | by ( Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
At the moment, the market for existing homes is partly frozen because people who have 3 percent mortgage loans don’t want to give them up for 7 percent loans on new homes. Making mortgages portable sounds unrealistic. After all, mortgages are tied by contract to particular pieces of property. “We’re getting this question a lot, even from our own members,” Mike Fratantoni, the group’s chief economist, told me. Nevertheless, he said he couldn’t imagine that owners of securitized loans would go along with the idea.
Persons: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, “ We’re, ” Mike Fratantoni, there’s Organizations: Federal Housing Finance Agency, Mortgage Bankers Association
Financially speaking, the United States has been a Teflon nation. Bad things happen — near defaults, giant budget deficits, a Capitol invasion — but nothing sticks for long. If the United States becomes dysfunctional enough, global investors will rationally conclude that the safe haven isn’t safe anymore. Financing costs in the United States will rise, economic growth will slow, and living standards will fall short of expectations. “Promoting democracy is also good economic policy.” I assume her speech is at least partly politically motivated, but I also think she’s right.
Persons: Janet Yellen, Organizations: Capitol Locations: United States, Canada, Germany, Japan, China, Arizona
Another bad result is that zombie banks stay in operation longer than they should because uninsured depositors happily supply them with funds, knowing the F.D.I.C. is experiencing “mission creep,” taking on a responsibility for uninsured depositors that it was never assigned. In a footnote of a 2001 document posted on its website that’s intended to provide guidance to other nations’ regulators, it says that making uninsured depositors whole can be least costly “in rare cases.” (Which means: not more than 90 percent of the time.) staff members, referring to full bank liquidations in the period before the financial crisis, said “a least-cost resolution almost always includes imposing losses on uninsured depositors.” Another F.D.I.C. So I have to go by what the agency has stated in the past about its resolution practices.
Persons: Ohlrogge, F.D.I.C, Organizations: Deposit Insurance Fund, Office
CNN —After being dispatched in five games by the reigning champion Denver Nuggets, LeBron James spoke to the media about what’s next for the Los Angeles Lakers’ superstar. With his season once again coming to a premature end, James is looking forward to spending some time away from basketball. “I just want to get home to the family, honestly,” James said after the game. James, playing in his 21st season in the league, averaged 27.8 points across the five games along with 6.8 rebounds, 8.8 assists, 2.4 steals and one block. Despite the silver lining of an extended break from the sport, the summer won’t be one long vacation for James.
Persons: LeBron James, James, , ” James, , Bronny, who’s, Bart Young, Jamal Murray, Kevin Durant, Steph Curry, , King ’, coy, “ I’m, Isaiah J, Downing, Reuters James, ” Bronny Organizations: CNN, Denver Nuggets, Los Angeles Lakers ’, Denver, Laker, Phoenix Suns, AAU, Nuggets, Lakers, Team USA, Olympic Games, USA, Reuters, NBA, University of Southern Locations: LA, Paris, University of Southern California
Here is a brutal fact for the college class of 2024: There aren’t enough college-level jobs out there for all of you. Others will have to settle for jobs that don’t require a college education. And history shows that many of those who start out in a job that doesn’t require a college education are still toiling in that kind of job a decade later. One mystery is why college grads’ lifetime earnings are so much higher than those of people with just a high school degree or less, if indeed so many college grads don’t do college-graduate-level work. I invite college seniors to tell me about your job searches and how you feel about what you learned or wish you had learned in college by filling out the form below.
Persons: grads, I’ll Organizations: Burning Glass Institute, Strada Institute
The Federal Trade Commission used two very different rationales to get to its near-total ban this week on noncompete agreements. The easy prong of the ban for the F.T.C. to justify is the one that applies to nurses, hairdressers, truck drivers — actually, every kind of worker except for senior executives. They typically have some power in the employment negotiation and know how to use it. Many won’t sign a noncompete agreement unless they get something in return, such as a sweetened pay package.
Persons: Organizations: Federal Trade Commission, Federal, The Times, Street, Food
Satirical news website The Onion was sold to a company called Global Tetrahedron. Global Tetrahedron is also the name of a fictional evil megacorporation in a long-running Onion gag. But it's a real company, and Twilio founder Jeff Lawson appears to be behind it. AdvertisementJeff Lawson, the cofounder of cloud computing company Twilio, appears to have purchased the satirical news website The Onion from G/O Media. When asked whether he had purchased The Onion, Lawson played coy.
Persons: Jeff Lawson, , Lawson, Jim Spanfeller, Katie Robertson, Spanfeller, coy, O Organizations: Service, O, New York Times Locations: San Francisco, Chicago
There’s a vote on whether to join the United Automobile Workers union, giving organized labor its first factorywide foothold at a major foreign automaker in the South. We know now that the pro-union side won with nearly three-quarters of the vote in an election that ended on Friday. I think what we saw in Chattanooga is workers voting on the basis of economics rather than party alignment. If that continues to happen elsewhere, the South could some day become as unionized as the rest of the country. It won’t happen quickly, though, because government officials and corporate groups are likely to continue to fight back.
Persons: , Donald Trump, Republicans — Organizations: United Automobile Workers, Republicans Locations: Chattanooga , Tenn, Tennessee, Chattanooga
Before there was Elon Musk, there was William Crapo Durant. It’s highly unlikely that Musk, one of the world’s richest people, will die penniless, but in other respects he and Durant have a lot in common. One thing I found out is that the world is not always kind to visionaries with self-control issues. Durant flamed out at G.M. In contrast, the prudent organization man who eventually succeeded him, Alfred Sloan, went from success to success.
Persons: Elon Musk, William Crapo Durant, Billy Durant, Durant, It’s, Durant flamed, Alfred Sloan, , Steve Blank Organizations: General Motors, Chevrolet, Durant Motors, Tesla, Harvard, Stanford Locations: G.M
Speculating about how the economy would perform under a second Donald Trump presidency normalizes the candidacy of a deeply flawed human being. So it seems important to talk about the economic outlook under another Trump term. They told me that a Trump 2.0 administration would be a lot like the Trump 1.0 administration — except, they hope, more disciplined and more effective. Trump has said he wants to extend in full the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, parts of which are set to expire at the end of 2025. The hope: If Trump can pull down inflation, the Federal Reserve will gain confidence to lower interest rates, which will boost the economy’s growth.
Persons: Donald Trump, normalizes, Trump, hasn’t Organizations: Trump, Federal Reserve
President Biden is campaigning on four more years of yummy stew. A lot of voters are saying, “I like you, but I don’t like your stew.”The performance of the U.S. economy should be a winning issue for Biden. Economic growth is so strong that the Federal Reserve is putting off plans to lower interest rates. Biden can’t credibly promise to turn things around — to make things much better in the coming term — because they’re already good by standard measures. It’s just that many voters don’t see it that way.
Persons: Biden, , Biden can’t credibly, they’re, Donald Trump’s, Organizations: Federal Reserve, The New York Times, Siena College Locations: U.S
Science alone won’t stop the planet from overheating. But science coupled with political science just might. That’s the theme of a new book, “Long Problems: Climate Change and the Challenge of Governing Across Time.” It’s by Thomas Hale, an American political scientist who teaches at the University of Oxford’s Blavatnik School of Government. Hale argues that people are too quick to throw up their hands because the political will to stop climate change is lacking. He calls them, at one point, “political technologies,” a phrase I like.
Persons: , It’s, Thomas Hale, Hale, ” Hale Organizations: University of Oxford’s Blavatnik, of Government Locations: American
CNN —The fortuitous timing of having a series produced by and featuring newly minted Oscar-winner Robert Downey Jr. tumbles down a very strange rabbit hole in “The Sympathizer,” a darkly satirical look at the Vietnam War and its aftermath. Each episode begins with dated-looking credits that evoke the 1970s, a promising Quentin Tarantino-ish conceit that, given what follows, sets expectations too high. As constructed, it’s a rather heavy-handed approximation of the fate Vietnam experienced in the pull of the war, which doesn’t make the Captain’s increasingly surreal arc any more compelling. Strangelove,” assuming that was the intent, than a means of maximizing the star’s presence without really heightening its impact. “The Sympathizer” is hardly the first project to funnel the contradictions of the Vietnam War through an exaggerated lens (“Apocalypse Now” being a prime example), but except for a few bracing sequences the execution only clouds that vision.
Persons: Robert Downey Jr, Downey, can’t, Park Chan, , Don McKellar, Quentin Tarantino, Duy Nguyen, Fred Nguyen Khan, Peter Sellers, “ Dr, Strangelove, Sandra Oh, David Duchovny, Organizations: CNN, Viet Thanh, CIA, HBO, coy, Credit Downey, Warner Bros . Locations: Vietnam, Viet, Saigon, what’s,
We were surprised when inflation rose. We were surprised when inflation fell. And we were surprised again when inflation stopped falling. The shakiness of our understanding is no small problem because inflation matters, a lot. Aside from those practical considerations: If we don’t understand inflation, then we also don’t truly understand anything else about the business cycle (if there even is one), because growth and inflation are intertwined.
Persons: , Biden Organizations: Federal
Opinion | The Economic Luminary Who Loved Solar Eclipses
  + stars: | 2024-04-08 | by ( Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
In 1857, William Stanley Jevons was 22 years old and was working as an assayer for the Sidney Mint. Two eclipses passed over Australia that year, and Jevons enthusiastically tracked both. I think it’s interesting nonetheless, because Jevons went on to become one of the most important economists of his century. Your first glass of orange juice tastes great, the second less so, and the third you pour down the drain. So don’t buy that third glass of orange juice.
Persons: William Stanley Jevons, Jevons, , , Léon, Carl Menger Organizations: Sidney Mint Locations: Australia, Bellevue Hill, Switzerland, Austria
What would life be like if artificial intelligence solved all your problems? Death would become almost optional because you could take on digital form and keep going for a billion years. We human beings dislike our problems, naturally, but if we had no problems to solve, what meaning would life have? in the 10 years since Bostrom’s last book on the topic, “Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies.” A.I. The idea that it will change the world has gone from a nerdy obsession to conventional wisdom.
Persons: Nick Bostrom, Bostrom’s Organizations: Oxford Locations: A.I
It would be great if Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen had a copy of “The Portable Karl Marx” with her on her trip to China this week. China was “among the most unequal countries in the world” in 2018, another I.M.F. working paper released that year said. While Xi Jinping name-checks Marx, it’s clear from his behavior that what he really pursues is national greatness under the direction of the Chinese Communist Party. That’s more in line with Lenin, who believed that a “vanguard” party would lead the proletariat, than with Marx or Engels.
Persons: Janet Yellen, Karl Marx ”, Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping, ” Marx, Xi, Marx, it’s, Lenin, Engels Organizations: International Monetary Fund, Chinese Communist Party Locations: China, Brazil
Alan Ritchson says he was sexually assaulted by a photographer years ago as a model. The "Reacher" star described modeling as "legalized sex trafficking." Advertisement"Reacher" star Alan Ritchson says he was sexually assaulted during a photo shoot when he was a model and also described the modeling industry as "legalized sex trafficking." I was sexually assaulted by this guy," the actor recalled. The modeling industry can be hugely lucrative, and some celebrities have made vast fortunes out of their image.
Persons: Alan Ritchson, , Jack Reacher, Lee Child, Ritchson, Jock, coy, Kendall Jenner Organizations: Service, Abercrombie, Fitch, Hollywood, Stone Locations: LA
Opinion | Unproductive Agriculture Is Holding Africa Back
  + stars: | 2024-04-01 | by ( Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: 1 min
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Organizations: The
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