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☆ Stock market today: Indexes rally on China stimulus, promising labor-market data
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-26 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Indexes rallied Thursday on positive jobs data and promises of further economic stimulus in China. AdvertisementUS stocks rallied on Thursday, fueled by China stimulus measures and positive jobs data to pare losses from yesterday. The indexes rallied after leaders in China pledged to support the economy with more strong policy measures. The indexes' gains were also fueled by positive labor market data. Meanwhile, second-quarter GDP came in unrevised at a 3% annualized rate, according to data released Thursday.

Persons: —, Eric Jackson, SocGen Organizations: Service, Labor Department, Federal Reserve Locations: China, unrevised

☆ Stock futures are little changed as traders brace for Fed’s preferred inflation reading: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-26 | by ( Pia Singh | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stock futures traded near the flatline Thursday night as Wall Street awaits a key inflation reading. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were little changed, as were S&P 500 futures . In the fiscal fourth quarter, the warehouse retailer reported earnings of $5.29 per share on $79.70 billion in fourth-quarter revenue. The so-called PCE is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation metric, and policymakers and Wall Street alike are hoping for figures that show a cooling trend. The three major indexes are higher for the week, with the S&P 500 up nearly 0.8% and the 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average on pace to rise 0.3%.

Persons: LSEG, Jeffrey Roach Organizations: NYSE, Stock, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Costco Wholesale, Financial, Traders Locations: U.S

☆ Pro Talks: After the Fed cuts rates, one fund manager reveals where to invest right now
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Investors should stay away from overvalued U.S. stocks in 2025, fund manager Sean Peche has cautioned. The value investor at Ranmore Fund Management told CNBC's Silvia Amaro on CNBC Pro Talks about where he sees undervalued stocks and opportunities, especially now the U.S. Federal Reserve has cut interest rates. Pesh highlighted his fund's holdings, including Carrefour , Petrobras , Alibaba , and Baidu as value plays. Peche, who set up Ranmore Fund Management in 2008, also shared some of the worst trades of the year, as well as his most successful yet. Since inception, the fund has gained 10.9% on an annualized basis, slightly more than the 10.6% posted by its MSCI benchmark.

Persons: Sean Peche, CNBC's Silvia Amaro, Pesh Organizations: Ranmore Fund Management, CNBC Pro, U.S . Federal, Carrefour, Petrobras, Alibaba, Baidu, Ranmore, Equity, ABN Amro, Ranmore Global Equity Fund Locations: overvalued U.S, Hong Kong, United States, Carrefour, China

☆ 'We could be in for an everything rally': Stocks are mirroring the early days of one of history's biggest bull markets, hedge fund manager says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-25 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Hedge fund manager Eric Jackson believes an 'everything rally' can take hold in the stock market. Interest rate cuts, economic growth, and yield curve changes favor risk assets, according to Jackson. AdvertisementThe stock market's relentless rise higher could turn into an "everything rally," according to hedge fund manager Eric Jackson of EMJ Capital. AdvertisementHe added: "And when that happened, there was a stock market rally which lasted 10 months. The yield curve finally went positive earlier this month.

Persons: Eric Jackson, Jackson, —, we've Organizations: Service, EMJ, CNBC, Nasdaq, Treasury Locations: Jackson

☆ CNBC Pro Talks: After the Fed cuts rates, one fund manager will reveal where to invest right now
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( Cnbc.Com Staff | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

After the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a bumper 50 basis points , investors have been left wondering whether growth or value stocks are the best bet. On CNBC's upcoming Pro Talks , Silvia Amaro will ask value investor Sean Peche where he sees opportunities in the current market. Peche is portfolio manager at the U.K.-based Ranmore Fund Management and manages its $329 million Ranmore Global Equity Fund . As of Aug. 31, the Ranmore Global Equity Fund has returned 21.6% over the last year, underperforming its benchmark MSCI World Index's 24.4%. CNBC Pro subscribers can watch Pro Talks live on Wednesday, Sept. 25, at 7 a.m.

Persons: Silvia Amaro, Sean Peche, He'll, Warren Buffett, Eli Lilly, ager, CNBC's Silvia Amaro Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Ranmore Fund Management, Global Equity Fund, Investors, Ranmore, Equity, Petrobras, Baidu, ABN Amro, Ranmore Global Equity Fund, Decillion Fund Management, Orbis Investment Advisory, CNBC, Beyond Locations: Carrefour, China, U.S, London

☆ Economic conditions are 'nearly perfect' and the Fed has engineered a 'miraculous' achievement, Evercore founder says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-23 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

In a Monday-morning appearance on CNBC, Evercore founder Roger Altman praised the Fed for delivering "nearly perfect" economic conditions, citing strength in equities, profits, and employment. Only inflation — which still hovers above the Fed's 2% target rate — is holding off an official soft landing declaration, he said. AdvertisementAlthough there are some concerns rate cuts will reignite inflation, Altman is expecting to see a slowdown this week when new consumption-expenditures data is released. Related stories"I think what essentially happened was that the Fed saw the path on inflation steadily downward as more certain than the path on labor markets, a little more uncertainty about labor markets," Altman said. "So it took a stronger step to fortify labor markets, and went for 50."

Persons: —, Roger Altman, Powell, Altman, Larry Summers Organizations: Service, CNBC, Business, Fed

☆ A top-1% fund manager warns Warren Buffett is behaving like he did before the dot-com crash — and says the S&P 500 could see dismal returns for a decade
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-21 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

He's also outperformed the S&P 500 over that time by returning 14% per year on average versus the index's 13.8% annualized gains. Between July and September 1999, Buffett shared his outlook for the market in a series of talks that were summarized by Fortune's Carol Loomis in November of that year. AdvertisementSince then, however, investors have enjoyed 15 years of ultra-low interest rates and growing corporate profits — a fact that has Smead worried. "The only problem is it's a curse on long-term S&P 500 performance," Smead said of the 15-year run. Related storiesBaked into Smead's outlook is an against-consensus view that inflation is set to surge again as the Fed cuts interest rates.

Persons: —, Bill Smead, Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, Smead, Munger, He's, Buffett, Fortune's Carol Loomis Organizations: Service, Business, Morningstar, Apple, Bank of America

☆ What normalizing the yield curve means — and why investors should care
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-20 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

It also means lots of talk from the experts about "normalizing the yield curve" in the bond market — meaning getting back to a setup where bonds with longer maturities yield higher rates than those with shorter-term maturities. That's referred to as "yield curve inversion," which has historically signaled an upcoming recession. Currently, however, the yield curve looks more like a check mark than a gradually rising hill. An inverted Treasury yield curve messes with that dynamic. Everyone, from private citizens to multinational corporations benefits from a normalized yield curve because normal means less uncertainty, which means more predictability.

Persons: Jerome Powell, shouldn't, Stanley Black, Decker, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, William McChesney Martin Jr, Anna Moneymaker Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Treasury, CNBC, Federal, Getty Locations: U.S, Washington , DC

☆ From gold and silver, to oil and aluminum: Where analysts see prices now the Fed has cut rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-20 | by ( Weizhen Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

HSBC in a Sept. 17 report examined the relationship between Fed rate cuts and copper and aluminum prices over the past 30 years. In its base case, Citi sees copper prices averaging $9,000 per ton for the rest of this year, citing U.S. election uncertainty and weak manufacturing sentiment. Energy Citi anticipates that oil will suffer renewed price weakness in 2025, with Brent falling to around $60 a barrel. Based on what happened in 2019, trade tariffs lowered global oil demand growth by 0.2 million barrels a day. A slowdown in China, among the world's largest importer and consumer of oil, has been blamed on slowing global oil demand.

Persons: annualized, it's, that's, Brent Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Citi, HSBC, Commodities, Energy Citi Locations: China, U.S, Europe, Iran

☆ With rates falling, don’t make this ‘big mistake’ with your cash
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-20 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

"The Fed rate cuts are likely to support inflows to money market funds over the course of the next year," Antoniewicz said. While retail investors may slow their pace of investment, institutional flows tend to ramp up since yields on money market funds lag the funds rate, she noted. That cash can stay in a money market fund, a high yield saving account or certificates of deposit. The bucket for three to five years has about 70% in fixed income, with a small amount of high yield bonds added that have durations under five years. He'll dip more into high yield, as well as private credit, in the six to 10-year fixed income category.

Persons: haven't, Shelly Antoniewicz, Antoniewicz, Chuck Failla, you'll, Bond, Failla, Marcus, Kathy Jones, It's, Jones Organizations: Federal Reserve, Investment Company Institute, Sovereign Financial Group, Schwab Center, Financial Research, Treasury, nab Locations: Wells

That is slightly lower than what analysts expected. It marks three straight months of sales below the 4 million mark, annualized. This count is based on closings — contracts that were likely signed in late June and July, when mortgage rates started coming down but were not as low as they are today. All-cash sales came in at 26%, which is down slightly from a year ago but still high historically. Mortgage rates continued to fall in August and September, with the 30-year fixed now sitting at 6.15%, the lowest in roughly two years.

Persons: ”, Lawrence Yun, “, ” Yun Organizations: National Association of Realtors, Mortgage News, “

☆ Opinion | The Fed’s Big Rate Cut Wasn’t Political. It Was an Economic No-Brainer.
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-19 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

In one sense, you could say that Wednesday’s decision by the Federal Reserve to cut rates was of minimal importance. The interest rate the Fed more or less directly controls — the federal funds rate — is the rate at which banks lend one another money overnight. For one thing, Fed rate changes tend to percolate into longer-term interest rates that really do matter for the economy. For example, the series of rate hikes the Fed undertook in 2022 and 2023 drove 30-year fixed mortgage interest rates up to almost 8 percent from about 3 percent. Most of their decisions are based on the same data about unemployment, inflation and so on available to anyone with an internet connection.

Persons: Jerome Powell, don’t Organizations: Federal Reserve

☆ Top Wall Street analysts pick these dividend stocks for attractive returns
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-15 | by ( Tipranks.Com Staff | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

To that end, the recommendations of top Wall Street analysts can help investors choose stocks with strong fundamentals and the ability to pay consistent dividends. Here are three dividend stocks, highlighted by Wall Street's top pros on TipRanks, a platform that ranks analysts based on their past performance. MPLX LPWe start this week with MPLX (MPLX), a midstream energy player. Recently, RBC Capital analyst Elvira Scotto reiterated a buy rating on MPLX stock with a price target of $47. The company recently paid a base dividend of $1.25 per share of common stock and a variable dividend of $1.27 per share.

Persons: Wall, Elvira Scotto, Scotto, TipRanks, Scott Hanold, Ivan Feinseth, Feinseth Organizations: Wall, MPLX, RBC Capital, Logistics, Energy, Hanold, Chord Energy, Tigress Locations: buybacks, Williston

Lower interest rates may impact your investment portfolio following the Fed's first rate cut. "They get spooked by something like policy changes and sell out of a diversified investment portfolio. "Generally, lower interest rates boost the economy as lending gets cheaper for consumers and businesses, " says Eckles. However, as interest rates fall, the attractiveness of these cash investments declines. The inverse relationship between bond prices and interest rates means that as rates fall, bond prices rise, providing another return component.

Persons: Banks, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Bakkum, Pam Krueger, annualized, Jaime Eckles, Plante Moran, doesn't, We've, Krueger, Cash Organizations: Federal Reserve

☆ 5 warning signs the economy is spiraling toward recession — and why there's 'major disconnect' between stocks and the job market
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-14 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

And yet, the unemployment rate continues to inch up, job openings continue to fall, and payroll data continue to underwhelm. But how long that enthusiasm can continue to outweigh declining labor market indicators remains to be seen. AdvertisementThe first is declining job openings, which are down to 7.6 million from 2022 highs above 12 million. BullAndBearProfits.comAnother sign Wolfenbarger shared showing the labor market is turning sour is the Kansas City Fed's Labor Market Conditions Index, which is a composite of 24 job market indicators. BullAndBearProfits.comFinally, in a September 2 note, Wolfenbarger shared a chart from Bank of America showing the decline in private job growth as a share of all job growth.

Persons: —, Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, Wolfenbarger, there's, BullAndBearProfits.com, John, Hussman, Stocks Organizations: Service, JPMorgan, Business, Kansas City Fed's Labor, BullAndBearProfits.com, Bank of America Locations: Kansas

☆ Tiger Global plans to join OpenAI’s funding round at more than $150 billion valuation
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( Hayden Field | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

In this photo illustration, the OpenAI logo is displayed on a mobile phone screen with a photo of Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI. Tiger Global is planning to join OpenAI's buzzy new funding round that would value the artificial intelligence startup at more than $150 billion, according to sources familiar with the situation. Thrive Capital is leading the round and plans to invest $1 billion. Microsoft , Nvidia and Apple are reportedly in talks to join as well. Earlier this year, OpenAI was valued at a reported $80 billion, up from $29 billion the prior year.

Persons: Sam Altman, OpenAI's, Tiger Global's, OpenAI, Growth, — CNBC's Kate Rooney Organizations: Tiger Global, Microsoft, Nvidia, Apple, OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, White, U.S, CNBC

☆ Stock futures are little changed after S&P 500 notches fourth-straight winning session: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-12 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

U.S. stock futures were little changed Thursday evening as traders sought to shake off a sluggish September. S&P 500 futures traded near the flatline. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added just 0.03%, and Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.02%. During Thursday's regular trading, investors snapped up shares of Big Tech names, including Nvidia , lifting the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite for a fourth consecutive day. The three major averages are also on track to post weekly gains, with the S&P 500 up 3.5% and the Nasdaq on track for a 5.3% jump.

Persons: Dan Greenhaus, Dow Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Big Tech, Nvidia, Dow, Salesforce, Microsoft, Federal, Management Locations: U.S

☆ OpenAI is showing that the AI race is survival of the richest
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-12 | by ( Hasan Chowdhury | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

It's also a sign of just how expensive the business of training and running AI models is getting. AdvertisementGenerative AI is a cash-guzzlerStartups like OpenAI need to raise huge amounts of capital to build smarter AI models. Just look at the spending of Big Tech firms working to improve their AI models. Consolidation has struck the AI industry in recent months, as some top startups trying to build AI models have been gutted. AI startups serious about progressing on LLMs will need to figure out the answer to this pretty quickly.

Persons: —, Elon, Sam Altman, ChatGPT, It's, Justin Sullivan, OpenAI, Dario Amodei, Anthropic, Pretty, Amodei's Anthropic, Dario Amodei's Anthropic, Noam Shazeer —, Ben Bergman, Sri Muppidi, it's, Elad Gil, Gil Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Business, SpaceX, Getty, Microsoft, Big Tech, Street, Nvidia, Apple, Amazon, Samsung, Google Locations: OpenAI, aren't

☆ Economic 'misery index' that's predicted every election winner since 1980 looking good for Harris, but it's close
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-10 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The "misery index" is the addition of the unemployment rate to the annualized inflation rate in the U.S. It has correctly predicted 15 of the past 16 races for the White House, including every presidential matchup since 1980, according to an analysis by research firm Strategas. This index now sits at 7.02, below the level that Strategas has found would be consistent with the incumbent party losing the election. Below a 7.353 level is needed in October for the incumbent party — in this case, the Harris-led Democrats — to come out on top, according to Strategas. The firm found this level through exclusive analysis of where the misery index would need to sit for the party currently in office to retain power, based on history.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Harris, — Organizations: White Locations: U.S

☆ Money market funds hit another record high — but experts warn it's time to move out of cash. Where they see opportunity
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-09 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Assets in money market funds hit $6.3 trillion the week that ended Wednesday, another record high, according to the Investment Company Institute . The annualized 7-day yield on the Crane 100 list of the 100 largest taxable money funds is currently 5.08%. History shows that when investors do move out of money market funds, they move into fixed income over equities, he said. Institutional investors will also continue to move into money market funds as the Fed cuts rates because any cash they have in direct money market investments, such as Treasury bills, will be hit by rate cuts quicker than money market funds, explained Peter Crane, founder of Crane Data, a firm that tracks the industry. Once you have the appropriate cash needs set aside, consider moving any excess funds into fixed income, Jenkin said.

Persons: Mark Cabana, Peter Crane, Crane, Ted Jenkin, Jenkin, Leslie Falconio, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae, Falconio Organizations: Investment Company Institute, Bank of America, Federal Reserve, Institutional, Crane, CNBC, American Express, Bread Financial, UBS, U.S . Locations: UBS Americas

☆ Leaked messages show early challenges for Amazon's big AI product and concern about losing customers to Microsoft
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-05 | by ( Eugene Kim | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

Amazon Q, a big new AI product, faces issues such as high costs and lack of features. Neighorn told BI that Amazon had clear pricing for Amazon Q and that customers could use the AWS Pricing Calculator to calculate Amazon Q charges. "Amazon Q only launched in April, and we continue to add new features based on customer feedback," Neighorn said. "Amazon Q has a rapidly growing customer base that is using Q for a variety of use cases." AdvertisementFor now, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy may be the biggest salesperson for Amazon Q.

Persons: —, Q, It's, Slack, Q's, AWS's, Microsoft's Copilot, Patrick Neighorn, Neighorn, Matt Garman, Garman, Andy Jassy, Jassy Organizations: Amazon, Service, Web Services, Business, Microsoft, Google, ChatGPT, BI, Microsoft's Exchange, Bayer, Smartsheet, National Australia Bank, AWS, Q, LinkedIn Locations: North

☆ This week could shift the focus of a key narrative for Harris and Trump
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-04 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Those two events are the kind of thing that, in normal times, are tracked mostly by economists and Wall Street types. For former President Donald Trump and the Republicans, the narrative is simple: Anything bad you’re feeling about inflation or the job market? Harris entered the race trailing Trump on a range of issues, including the economy. If that were the whole story, Trump might have a harder time disparaging Harris’ and President Joe Biden’s economic record. If the data doesn’t behave, however, then jobs — not inflation — may become the key economic narrative that Harris and Trump will start talking about in their stump speeches.

Persons: CNN Business ’, New York CNN —, we’re, pollsters, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Harris, Price, Trump, Harris ’, Joe Biden’s, it’s, ”, Aaron Sojourner, Heidi Shierholz, Biden, — Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Republicans, Biden, Democratic, Trump, July’s, Fed, WE Upjohn, Employment Research, Economic Policy Institute, ”, of Labor Statistics Locations: New York, Washington

☆ Increased sausage demand could be worrying signal on the economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-26 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

An uptick in sausage demand can offer the latest sign of consumers tightening their belts as they continue grappling with high prices. There has been "modest growth" in the dinner sausage category for one producer, according to the Dallas Federal Reserve's Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey released Monday. "This category tends to grow when the economy weakens," the respondent said, according to edited comments included in the Dallas Fed's report. That is because "sausage is a good protein substitute for higher-priced proteins and can 'stretch' consumers' food budgets." This anecdote pointed out by eagle-eyed Bespoke Investment Group on social media site X comes as grocery prices remain top of mind for consumers.

Persons: Fred Meyer Organizations: Dallas Federal, Texas Manufacturing, Dallas Locations: Kroger, Palmer , Alaska, An

☆ These ETFs will thrive as U.S. manufacturing investment grows, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-25 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Investors who want to bet on a continued rebound in U.S. manufacturing should take a look at ETFs that hold stocks across different sectors to capture the theme, according to Bank of America. Traditional sector funds don't do a great job capturing this theme in one basket, so Bank of America prefers ETFs that have a wider scope. Woodard's top ETF pick in the space is the First Trust RBA American Industrial Renaissance ETF (AIRR) . While AIRR has the highest expense ratio of the group, it has the best 5Y risk adjusted returns," the Bank of America note said. Second on Bank of America's list is the Global X US Infrastructure ETF (PAVE) .

Persons: Jared Woodard, " Woodard, AIRR Organizations: Bank of America, Democrats, Trust, Industrial Renaissance, Mueller Industries, Bank of, Global, US Infrastructure ETF, Trane Technologies, United Rentals

☆ US stocks are overvalued because of unrealistic expectations for AI-powered economic growth, Vanguard says
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-23 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Investors are too optimistic about the near-term prospects of AI, Vanguard said. "This is double the annualized rate of the 1920s, when electricity lit up the nation," Vanguard wrote. AdvertisementBut Vanguard global chief economist Joe Davis thinks expectations are too high, and says that stocks are overvalued even if the AI boom plays out as anticipated. For context, the S&P 500's trailing one-year earnings growth rate through the second quarter of 2024 was 10.9%, according to FactSet data. That's probably not going to happen, which means we're unlikely to experience an AI-driven economic boom in 2025," he said.

Persons: —, Joe Davis, It's, Davis, BlackRock Organizations: Vanguard, Service

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