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☆ US stocks trade mixed as investors assess cooler April inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks end mixed on Wednesday after the release of April inflation data. Inflation cooled to 4.9%, below expectations of a 5% rate. The Nasdaq Composite powered higher while the Dow slumped. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. But the Dow, which carries many bank and consumer-oriented stocks, felt the weight of investors' concerns about the economy moving into a recession.

☆ Markets think the odds of a Fed rate cut in July are almost 50% after April CPI showed inflation cooling more than expected
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Inflation in April increased by less than anticipated, spurring further bets the Federal Reserve will start rate cuts this summer. Odds of a cut in July rose to 45.9% on Wednesday from 29.3% a day earlier. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues last week ushered in their 10th consecutive rate increase as inflation remains above their 2% target. The Fed funds rate at 5%-5.25% stands at the highest since 2007. Inflation appears unlikely to rev higher again, which means the most likely scenario for monetary policy is the Fed remaining on hold, said Zaccarelli.

☆ US manufacturing contacts again in April but pulls off 3-year low
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The ISM said its manufacturing PMI increased to 47.1 last month from 46.3 in March, which was the lowest reading since May 2020. It was the sixth straight month that the PMI remained below the 50 threshold, which indicates contraction in manufacturing. The proportion of manufacturing GDP with a composite PMI calculation at or below 45 percent - a good barometer of overall manufacturing weakness - was 12 percent in April, compared to 25 percent in March, said Timothy Fiore, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. Only two of the six biggest manufacturing industries, petroleum and coal products as well as transportation equipment, reported growth last month. The ISM survey's forward-looking new orders sub-index rose to 45.7 last month from 44.3 in March.

☆ US manufacturing contracts again in April, but pace slows
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The ISM said its manufacturing PMI increased to 47.1 last month from 46.3 in March, which was the lowest reading since May 2020. The ISM said 73% of manufacturing gross domestic product was contracting, up from 70% in March. "The proportion of manufacturing GDP with a composite PMI calculation at or below 45 percent - a good barometer of overall manufacturing weakness - was 12 percent in April, compared to 25 percent in March," said Timothy Fiore, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. Only two of the six biggest manufacturing industries, petroleum and coal products as well as transportation equipment, reported growth. Higher prices align with government data showing wages and salaries in the manufacturing industry growing solidly in the first quarter.

☆ US consumer confidence hits nine-month low; housing market bottoming out
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-25 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Consumers have shown resilience despite high inflation and a rise in interest rates, keeping the economy afloat, thanks to a strong labor market. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index fell to 101.3, the lowest reading since July 2022, from 104.0 in March. The survey's so-called labor market differential, derived from data on respondents' views on whether jobs are plentiful or hard to get, rose to 37.3 from 36.5 in March, consistent with a tight labor market. "Take consumer purchase plans with a grain of salt," said Tim Quinlan, a senior economist at Wells Fargo in Charlotte, North Carolina. That skepticism also extended to home purchase plans.

☆ US home prices rose slightly in February, snapping seven months of declines
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-25 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Washington, DC CNN —US home prices rose slightly in February, snapping a seven-month streak of month-over-month declines, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index, released Tuesday. The national composite index now stands 4.9% below its June 2022 peak. Miami again had the biggest year-over-year price gain in February, followed by Tampa, Florida; and Atlanta. Miami had a year-over-year price increase of 10.8%, followed by Tampa with a 7.7% increase and Atlanta with an 6.6% increase. In January, four West Coast cities — San Francisco; Seattle; San Diego; and Portland, Oregon — saw year-over-year price declines.

☆ World food prices fall for 12th month running in March - FAO
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

ROME, April 7 (Reuters) - The United Nations food agency's world price index fell in March for a 12th consecutive month, and is now down 20.5% from a record high hit one year ago following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) price index, which tracks the most globally traded food commodities, averaged 126.9 points last month against 129.7 for February, the agency said on Friday. The FAO cereal price index fell 5.6% month-on-month in March, with wheat registering a 7.1% drop, maize a 4.6% decline and rice easing 3.2 percent. FAO also raised its forecast for world cereal production in 2022 to 2.777 billion tonnes, just 1.2% down from the previous year. World cereal utilisation in the 2022/23 period was seen at 2.779 billion tonnes, FAO said, down 0.7% from 2021/22.

☆ US services sector growth slows; price pressures abating
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Despite the pullback in growth in the services sector, Anthony Nieves, chair of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee noted that "the majority of respondents report a positive outlook on business conditions." The services sector is being supported by consumers switching spending from goods, which are typically bought on credit. ISM services PMITRADE DEFICIT WIDENSWhile accommodation and food services businesses reported that "traffic is recovering and nearly flat," they added "we are optimistic about the coming months." With demand cooling, services sector inflation continued to subside, though it remains elevated. Services sector employment growth also moderated.

☆ South Korea March factory activity contracts at sharpest pace in six months
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Steam rises from stacks at the Lotte Chemical Corp. plant in the Yeosu Industrial Complex in Yeosu, South Korea. South Korea's factory activity contracted at the fastest pace in six months in March, a survey showed on Monday, as output and new orders fell at quicker rates and suggested weaker global demand will drag on the domestic economic recovery. The S&P Global's seasonally adjusted purchasing managers' index (PMI) for South Korean manufacturers declined to 47.6 in March from 48.5 in February. It was the lowest reading since September 2022 and the ninth consecutive month below 50, line separating expansion and contraction. Sub-indexes showed output shrank by the most in five months, while new orders fell by the most in three.

☆ US manufacturing sector weakest in nearly three years in March -ISM
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Monday that its manufacturing PMI fell to 46.3 last month, the lowest reading since May 2020, from 47.7 in February. It was the fifth straight month that the PMI remained below the 50 threshold, which indicates contraction in manufacturing. Reports last month also showed orders for capital goods excluding aircraft eking out a small gain in February as did manufacturing output. But it noted that manufacturing depending on bank credit also "tend to have larger firms that other things equal will have an easier time finding alternative sources of capital." The ISM survey's forward-looking new orders sub-index fell to 44.3 last month from 47.0 in February.

☆ The housing market is a total paradox now, and these recent mixed signals are adding to the confusion
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-01 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Housing indicators have sent mixed signals, muddying the picture on where the market is headed. Regional differences have also been playing a considerable role in the data. Meanwhile, Adams added that national averages can obscure stark regional differences, which have varied significantly, potentially causing diverging viewpoints. Here are some recent mixed signals:The US housing market is crashing and soaring at the same timeThe regional divide in the housing market is exemplified in this east-west split. "Existing-home sales, pending contracts and new-home construction pending contracts have turned the corner and climbed for the past three months."

☆ US consumer mood darkens but banking turmoil impact limited so far, UMich says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The University of Michigan's monthly Consumer Sentiment Index slid to 62.0 in March from 67.0 in February and a mid-month reading of 63.4. "This month's turmoil in the banking sector had limited impact on consumer sentiment, which was already exhibiting downward momentum prior to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank." Still, consumers had more pessimistic assessments of both their current situation and the future than they did a month ago, the survey showed. The survey also showed consumers' views of inflation over the near-term moderated further over the course of the month. One-year inflation expectations fell to 3.6% from 4.1% in February and 3.8% two weeks earlier.

☆ UK mortgage approvals rose more than expected in February: BoE
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

The increase follows reports from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveys and mortgage lender Halifax that show the downturn in the housing market is no longer accelerating, even if conditions remain weak. Britain's housing market slowed sharply after September when former prime minister Liz Truss's economic plans triggered a spike in mortgage rates and a dramatic fall in approvals. "Reflecting the partial unwinding of the spike in mortgage rates following the 'mini' budget, mortgage approvals rose to their highest level for three months in February," said Andrew Wishart, economist at consultancy Capital Economics. "However, with mortgage rates unlikely to fall much further in the near term, lending will remain weak." Net mortgage lending value terms, which lags approvals, fell in February to 738 million pounds from 2 billion pounds in January, the lowest reading since July 2021.

☆ The bank crisis threatens to spark a credit crunch as Main Street banks pull back
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

A possible consequence of the banking crisis is that households and businesses may soon find it harder to get a loan from their bank. Around $1 trillion in deposits have been pulled from smaller and mid-sized banks since the Fed began hiking rates last year, with half that fleeing banks since SVB collapsed. "The uncertainty generated by deposit movements could cause banks to become more cautious on lending," JPMorgan strategists wrote in a note. "This risk is heightened by the fact that mid- and small-size banks play a disproportionately large role in US bank lending." This likely could impact the trajectory of the economy, as regional and community banks are a massive source of credit to Main Street borrowers.

Some banks are rolling out the welcome mat for cryptocurrency firms that found themselves in need of banking services after the downfall of two big crypto-friendly lenders, Signature Bank and Silvergate Capital Corp.As crypto companies have scrambled to establish new bank relationships, industry executives say they have received a positive reception from regional banks such as Customers Bancorp ., based in West Reading, Pa., and Fifth Third Bancorp , based in Cincinnati.

☆ Pennsylvania Chocolate-Factory Explosion Death Toll Rises to Seven
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Ginger Adams Otis | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Authorities were investigating the cause of a large explosion at a chocolate factory in Pennsylvania that killed at least seven people, officials said. Two victims were discovered late Sunday in the rubble, bringing the death toll to seven, West Reading Mayor Samantha Kaag said in a statement Monday.

☆ Death toll in Pennsylvania chocolate factory blast rises to seven
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/4] A general view shows smoke coming out from a chocolate factory after fire broke out, in West Reading, Pennsylvania, U.S., March 24, 2023 in this picture obtained from social media. Twitter @Based_In410/via REUTERSMarch 27 (Reuters) - The death toll from an explosion at a chocolate factory in Pennsylvania has risen to seven people, with authorities ending a search for those believed to be missing following Friday's blast. Palmer Co in West Reading, a town of 4,500 about 60 miles (97 km) northwest of Philadelphia. Seven other people were taken to local hospitals with injuries, said the Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency (PEMA) on Friday. Palmer Company was founded in 1948.

☆ Pennsylvania Chocolate Factory Explosion Leaves Four Dead
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-26 | by ( Ginger Adams Otis | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Officials are investigating the cause of the explosion at the R.M. Palmer factory. Rescue crews continued to comb through the debris caused by a chocolate factory explosion in Pennsylvania that killed four people and left three others unaccounted for, officials said Sunday. Palmer Co. factory in West Reading, Pa., occurred just before 5 p.m. Friday. It destroyed the building and caused damage to a second structure, officials said.

☆ Explosion at Pennsylvania chocolate factory kills at least 2, 1 found alive overnight as others still missing
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-25 | by ( Aaron Mcdade | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A Friday evening explosion leveled a chocolate factory in Reading, Pennsylvania. The explosion killed at least two, and sent several to the hospital; others are still missing. Palmer chocolate factory in West Reading, Pennsylvania. One was transferred to another facility, two were admitted to Reading Hospital in fair condition, and the other five were released. The chocolate company has been a part of West Reading for decades since it started in 1948.

☆ NY Fed report shows near-term inflation expectations retreating sharply
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Meanwhile, the expected level of inflation three years from now held steady at 2.7%, matching the level last seen in October 2020, while expected inflation five years from now was seen hitting 2.6%, up from January's 2.5%. The New York Fed survey arrived just ahead of the Fed's March 21-22 policy meeting. The New York Fed report was conducted ahead of the SVB situation and does not reflect its impact. Households last month saw declining price pressures for gasoline, food, rent, medical care and college. But the New York Fed noted that last month's reading remains well below the 12-month average of an expected 3.4% rise in home prices.

☆ Takeaways from the February jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-11 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

Minneapolis CNN —February’s jobs report had a little something for everyone. In February, the construction industry added 24,000 jobs, marking 12 consecutive months of employment growth. Friday’s report showed that “a modicum of slack crept back into the jobs market,” wrote Wells Fargo economists Sarah House and Michael Pugliese. However, Friday’s jobs report likely won’t spur a more dovish turn from the Fed, said Sean Snaith, an economist and director of the University of Central Florida’s Institute for Economic Forecasting. “We didn’t go from a four-alarm fire to a five-alarm fire with this data report, but the inflation flames aren’t out either,” he wrote in a note Friday.

☆ UK house prices slide further but market pessimism eases: RICS
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Suban Abdulla | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) house price balance, which measures the difference between the percentage of surveyors seeing rises and falls in house prices, fell to -48 in February from -46 the previous month - the lowest reading since April 2009. While Thursday's survey still showed the housing market firmly in decline, some measures indicated that a more stable picture was emerging in 2023, RICS said. Tarrant Parsons, senior economist at RICS, said he expected housing market activity to remain subdued over the coming months. "Given the ongoing weakness in demand, house prices remain on a downward trajectory, and are expected to see further falls through the first half of the year at least," Parsons said. In contrast, another lender, Nationwide, last week said house prices dropped by the most in more than 10 years in February.

☆ US businesses see moderation in inflation ahead, Fed survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Lindsay Dunsmuir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

But after some softening late last year, the economy has since rebounded and price increases have reaccelerated. But there were also hopeful signs, with supply chains easing further and price increases moderating in many of the Fed's regional districts. "Looking ahead, contacts expected price increases to continue to moderate over the year," the report said. That said, inflation remained "widespread" according to the survey, and in the labor market "finding workers with desired skills or experience remained challenging." Fed policymakers have made clear that there would have to be some easing in labor market shortages in order for wage pressures to ease.

☆ US manufacturing sector still shrinking; raw material prices rebound
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Nevertheless, the rebound in prices at the factory gate suggests inflation could remain elevated for a while after monthly consumer and producer prices surged in January. The ISM's manufacturing PMI edged up to 47.7 last month from 47.4 in January. Paper products, textile mills, furniture and related products as well as nonmetallic mineral products, computer and electronic products were among the 14 reporting contraction. Comments from some manufacturers in the ISM survey were supportive of this thesis. Timothy Fiore, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, said "new order rates remain sluggish due to buyer and supplier disagreements regarding price levels and delivery lead times."

☆ Euro zone factory output returned to growth in February -PMI
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

S&P Global's final manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dipped to 48.5 in February from January's 48.8, in line with a preliminary reading but still below the 50 mark separating growth from contraction. That healing of supply chain strains led to another sharp diminishing of the cost burden faced by factories. The input prices index slumped to 50.9 from 56.3 in January, its lowest reading since September 2020. However, the output prices index remained high. "Although factory selling prices continued to rise sharply, albeit with the rate of increase easing to a two-year low, this in part reflects the usual lagged effect of changes in costs feeding through to output prices," Williamson said.

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