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☆ Turkey's runoff election is paralyzing key oil exports from northern Iraq
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-25 | by ( Ruxandra Iordache | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Oil typically flows through Turkey from both the Iraqi state and the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). More specifically, this Kirkuk crude flows down the Iraq-Turkey Pipeline linking the north of the Gulf country with Turkey's Ceyhan port in the Mediterranean. But the flows have been paralyzed since March 25 by a legal dispute involving federal Iraq, the KRG and Turkey. This decision led to U.S. companies deciding to exit contracts in Kurdistan and deterred some KRG oil buyers from further purchases. "The ruling party in Turkey [Erdogan's AKP] wants to settle the elections and then deal with KRG's oil with Baghdad."

Persons: KRG, Hayan Abdul, Ghani, —, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, Lawk Ghafuri, Yerevan Saeed, Saeed, Bilal Wahab, Wagner Organizations: CNBC, Kurdistan Regional Government, Turkey Pipeline, International, Commerce's, Reuters, ICC, Baghdad, BTC, Kurdistan, Gulf Institute, Sinjar, Washington Institute for Near East Locations: Turkey, Ankara, Baghdad, Iraqi, Kurdistan, Kirkuk, Iraq, Basra, Paris, U.S, Ceyhan, Baku, Syria, Erbil, Yerevan, Washington

Those concerns intensified in February after U.N. inspectors revealed their discovery of uranium particles of 83.7% purity at an Iran nuclear facility built deep underground to protect it from air strikes. Western officials fear a nuclear-armed Iran could threaten Israel, Gulf Arab oil producers, and spark a regional arms race. A senior Iranian nuclear official said Tehran would not take the revival of U.N. sanctions lying down. But Western officials and analysts say that Iran's production of 90% uranium would demand a significant response. 'FACE A CRISIS AT SOME POINT'While Western officials want to leave the door open for diplomacy, tensions with Russia and China make that harder.

☆ The Saudi crown prince wants to build a trillion-dollar utopia in the desert. His deals with China reveal a darker vision.
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-23 | by ( Tom Porter | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

It's part of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's modernizing vision of the country. But behind the outlandish plan, developed by Saudi Arabia's powerful crown prince Mohammed bin Salman, is a much darker reality. Crown Prince Mohammed appears keen to replicate those projects on a grander scale. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman announces a zero-carbon city called "The Line" to be built at NEOM in northwestern Saudi Arabia, January 10, 2021. It appeared to be the beginning of a fruitful partnership for Crown Prince Mohammed.

☆ Israeli turmoil alarms business leaders: There's 'fear over what happens next'
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Jason Gewirtz | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The uncertainty in Israel's political situation extends deep into the business sector. This month, ratings service Fitch warned that the courts controversy "could weaken Israel's credit profile." Weingarten's big fear is an irreparable divide in Israel, a country where a great degree of unity was once seen as a given. Such a drop would make the prime minister push his right-wing coalition partners into a deal that's more aligned with the country's citizens at large. Women dressed as handmaidens from "The Handmaid's Tale" attend a demonstration after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dismissed the defense minister and his nationalist coalition government presses on with its judicial overhaul, in Jerusalem on March 27, 2023.

The decision propelled Israel into a national crisis with massive protests that forced Netanyahu to delay the move on Monday. "We haven't taken a hands-off approach," said a senior administration official. Dennis Ross, a veteran U.S. peace negotiator between Israelis and Arabs, said the Biden administration had expressed its misgivings about Israel’s judicial proposals but had done so privately where possible. Halie Soifer, chief executive officer of the Jewish Democratic Council of America, said the way the Biden administration has handled this crisis thus far is in keeping with Biden's commitment to the U.S.-Israel partnership. But, keeping a distance from Netanyahu, Biden has yet to invite him to visit the White House since the Israeli began his sixth term as prime minister in December.

☆ No White House visit for Israel's Netanyahu as US concern rises
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( Simon Lewis | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

WASHINGTON, March 16 (Reuters) - Eleven weeks into his third stint as Israel's prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu has yet to be received at the White House, signaling apparent U.S. unhappiness over the policies of his right-wing government. The White House declined to confirm Netanyahu has yet to be invited. A State Department spokesperson referred Reuters to the Israeli government for information about the prime minister's travel plans. The United States has long been Israel’s main benefactor, sending more than $3 billion each year in military assistance. Baker later banned Netanyahu, at the time a deputy minister of foreign affairs, from the State Department after he criticized U.S. policy toward Israel.

☆ Turkey's push into Iraq risks deeper conflict
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Amina Ismail | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +9 min

REUTERS/Amina IsmailSARARO, Iraq, Jan 31 (Reuters) - Looming over the deserted village of Sararo in northern Iraq, three Turkish military outposts break the skyline, part of an incursion that forced the residents to flee last year after days of shelling. Turkey's advances across the increasingly depopulated border of Iraqi Kurdistan attract little global attention compared to its incursions into Syria or the battle against Islamic State, but the escalation risks further destabilising a region where foreign powers have intervened with impunity, analysts say. EMPTY VILLAGESA Kurdish official, who declined to be named, also said Turkey now had about 80 outposts in Iraq. NEW TARGETSBeyond the humanitarian impact, Turkey's incursion risks widening the conflict by giving carte blanche to regional rival Iran to step up intelligence operations inside Iraq and take its own military action, Kurdish officials say. According to a Washington Institute report, attacks on Turkish military facilities in Iraq increased from an average of 1.5 strikes per month at the start of 2022 to seven in April.

WASHINGTON, Jan 10 (Reuters) - The succession of Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri, who was believed to have been killed in a U.S. raid last year, remains unclear, a U.S. intelligence official said on Tuesday. "The question for Al Qaeda, that it has not answered for itself, is who follows (Zawahiri)," Christine Abizaid, director of the U.S. National Counterterrorism Center, said in an event organized by the Washington Institute when asked about Al Qaeda's "center of gravity" after Zawahiri's death. Al Qaeda has not named a successor. Saif al-Adel, a mysterious, low-key former Egyptian special forces officer who is a high-ranking member of Al Qaeda, is seen by experts as the top contender. The United States is offering a reward of up to $10 million for information leading to his arrest.

☆ Weapons for Russia, anti-government protests and the nuclear deal: What lies ahead for Iran in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( Natasha Turak | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

The Biden administration went from encouraging negotiations on reviving the Iranian nuclear deal to levying more sanctions on Tehran and condemning it for providing lethal weapons and training to Russian forces fighting in Ukraine. Iran's Foreign Ministry denies knowing about Iranian weapons transfers to Russia, despite evidence of Iranian-made drones wreaking havoc on Ukrainian cities. Sergei Savostyanov | AFP | Getty Images"2023 is going to be a pivotal year for Iran," Ali Vaez, Iran project director at non-profit Crisis Group, told CNBC. The nuclear deal: too far gone? Ukraine has blamed Iran for providing Russia with drones, which have been used to attack Kyiv.

☆ Analysis: As Netanyahu returns, concerns grow over far-right ally
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-03 | by ( James Mackenzie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

[1/5] Likud party leader Benjamin Netanyahu, accompanied by wife Sara Netanyahu, addresses his supporters at his party headquarters during Israel's general election in Jerusalem, November 2, 2022. "This party is a huge success, no religious party in Israel has ever achieved such a number," he said. With the conflict with the Palestinians surging anew and touching off Jewish-Arab tensions within Israel, Ben-Gvir on Thursday tweeted: "The time has come to impose order here. Contrary to his hawkish image, Netanyahu has often taken a more flexible and pragmatic approach than some of his predecessors. "Netanyahu now has a personal interest in limiting the power of law authorities and the Supreme Court because of his trial," Shapira said.

☆ A secretive US special-operations base in Syria is taking fire from a shadowy Middle East war
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( Rachel Nostrant | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

US troops at the al-Tanf outpost in Syria have been conducting counter-ISIS operations since 2016. Israeli, Syrian, and Iranian forces are also active around the base in southeastern Syria. The base was established in 2016, when US forces were in the thick of combat operations against ISIS in Syria. Al-Tanf — in southeastern Syria along the M2 Baghdad-Damascus highway and near the borders with Iraq and Jordan — was the ideal location. DELIL SOULEIMAN/AFP via Getty ImagesRussia's war in Ukraine may create new problems for US troops at al-Tanf.

Iranian Americans rally outside the White House in support of anti-regime protests in Iran following the death of Mahsa Amini, in Washington, U.S., September 24, 2022. Belgium's foreign minister and two other lawmakers cut their hair in parliament. "We are not looking to get involved in regime change," said a Western diplomat. Some officials and analysts argue Tehran may not seek a deal given the political sensitivities at home. "Why would we throw a lifeline to a regime that is on the ropes and that is killing young women?"

Newly elected Iraqi President Abdul Latif Rashid has named Mohammed Shia al-Sudani as prime minister-designate and tasked him with forming a new government in Baghdad, Iraq, October 13, 2022. Rashid, 78, was the Iraqi minister of water resources from 2003-2010. Sudani, 52, previously served as Iraq’s human rights minister as well as minister of labour and social affairs. Under a power-sharing system designed to avoid sectarian conflict, Iraq's president is a Kurd, its prime minister a Shi'ite and its parliament speaker a Sunni. Rashid’s election raises concerns about escalating tensions between the KDP and PUK, who fought a civil war in the 1990s.

Putin knew a war would be unpopular and had kept all of his previous military interventions limited before the current invasion of Ukraine. Right now, the Russian military is in no condition to fight NATO, and it is unclear to what extent the partial mobilization will solve Russia’s military problems. Moreover, the finger on the nuclear button is still that of Vladimir Putin rather than Patrushev or other hardliners. At the same time, the Ukrainians, the most likely victims of any tactical Russian nuclear strike, remain committed to fighting despite the risk. The fight is not only about Ukraine alone: For Putin and the hardliners alike, it’s about the West.

☆ Despite Biden's assurances, Middle East militaries are buying their own weapons to take on Iran at sea and in the air
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-21 | by ( Benjamin Brimelow | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been investing heavily in new military hardware in order to Iran. The Royal Saudi Air Force's core strength are its 232 F-15 Eagles, at least 84 of which are F-15SA variants designed specifically for Saudi Arabia. A Royal Saudi Air Force F-15 at King Faisal Air Base in Saudi Arabia in February 2021. US and Bahraini officials in front of unmanned naval vessels at at Naval Support Activity Bahrain in Manama in January. US Navy/MCS1 Mark Thomas MahmodIMX 2022 was also the first time Israel and Saudi Arabia, which don't have diplomatic relations, officially took part in an exercise together.

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