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Growth in US wages and salaries slowed to 1% in the fourth quarter of 2022, down from 1.3% in the previous quarter. As inflation remains high, the Fed may continue hiking interest rates — meaning wage growth could continue to trend slower. Wages and salaries for civilians rose 1% in the fourth quarter from a quarter ago, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said in a Tuesday report. In real terms though, wages and salaries actually declined by 1.2% for the whole of 2022, thanks to high inflation rates. But it doesn't mean the Fed's going to walk away from hiking rates because inflation remains elevated.
Bank of Japan keeps yield control policy unchanged
  + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +7 min
MARKET REACTION:The Japanese stock market cheered the BOJ's decision with the Nikkei share average (.N225) jumping more than 2% after the midday break. Therefore, among equities, we think Japanese financials sector will have a rerating of valuations over the next 3-6 months." That could escalate when the new governor of the bank will be announced and towards the policy meeting in March." MOH SIONG SIM, CURRENCY STRATEGIST, BANK OF SINGAPORE, SINGAPORE"The can has been kicked down the road and the attention will shift to the next meeting. CHARU CHANANA, MARKET STRATEGIST, SAXO MARKETS, SINGAPORE:"I think the speculations will still continue.
Japan's Nikkei (.N225) fell 0.4% and the yen, which surged 2.7% against the dollar overnight, kept going and rose about 0.2% further to 128.65 per dollar. "No change in policy this month would be a setback for the yen," said Rabobank FX strategist Jane Foley. "However, we would look to buy the yen against the dollar on dips on anticipation of another (policy) move ... in the spring." INFLATION IN RETREATBeyond Japan, market sentiment was dominated by overnight U.S. December inflation data that landed more or less on consensus expectations. The U.S. dollar dropped 0.9% to a nine-month low of $1.0868 per euro and the risk-sensitive Australian dollar rose to a roughly five-month high at $0.6984.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 1% to touch a four-month high in morning trade. China has abruptly dropped ultra-strict curbs on travel and activity, unleashing the virus on the nation's 1.4 billion people. The yuan rose about 0.2% to 6.8750 on Thursday. China has partially eased an unofficial ban on Australian coal imports and the Australian dollar made a three-week high overnight just below $0.69. In Europe, unseasonally warm weather has disappointed skiers but been a boon for a euro basking in falling gas prices.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina is unlikely to reach GDP growth of above 5% for 2023, Mizuho Bank saysVishnu Varathan of the bank says a lack of business and household confidence could hold back the country's economic growth.
The dollar, a beneficiary of rising U.S. interest rates, was on track for its best annual performance in seven years. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against six major currencies, dipped 0.16%. Sterling was set for its worst performance against the dollar since 2016, when Britain voted to leave the European Union. "Averting a downturn is a tall order," said Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank, noting that the odds are stacked against economies emerging unscathed from global policy tightening. U.S. Treasuries and German bonds, the benchmarks of global borrowing markets, lost 16% and 24% respectively in dollar terms this year.
Dollar powers through, eyes best year since 2015
  + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
The U.S. dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, has surged more than 8% this year, the most since 2015. "I expect the king dollar to lose its crown and the dollar to make a more decisive turn by the middle of next year," Bank of Singapore currency strategist Moh Siong Sim said. It has fallen more than 13% year to date, its worst performance since 2013. The single currency had dipped below parity against the dollar earlier this year for the first time in almost two decades. The kiwi , which has fallen more than 7% year to date, the worst since 2015, slipped 0.31% to $0.6330.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 0.71%, but is set to end the year down 19% - its worst performance since 2008. Reuters GraphicsFutures indicated European stocks were unlikely to retain the end-of-year cheer, with the Eurostoxx 50 futures down 0.16%, German DAX futures 0.13% lower and FTSE futures down 0.01%. China's blue-chip CSI 300 Index (.CSI300) and the Shanghai Composite Index (.SSEC) were both up 0.6%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (.HSI) rose nearly 1%. In the currency market, the U.S. dollar was on track for its best annual performance in seven years. Sterling was set for its worst performance against the dollar since 2016, when the UK voted to leave the European Union.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 0.71% and was set to end December flat. The index is set to end the year down 19% - it's worst performance since 2008. Japan's Nikkei (.N225) rose 0.22%, while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index (.AXJO) rose 0.34%. China stocks (.SSEC) were 0.63% higher, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (.HSI) rose 1.5%. Sterling was set for its worst performance against the dollar since 2016, when the UK voted to leave the European Union.
The U.S. dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, has surged more than 8% this year, the most since 2015. But expectations that the central bank may not have to raise rates as high as previously feared have caused the greenback to unwind its towering rally. Conversely, an ultra-dovish Bank of Japan in the face of a hawkish Fed, has spelled pain for the Japanese yen . Policymakers from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England have signalled more rate hikes to come next year, in a bid to tame inflation even at the risk of hurting their economies. "The issue is whether the rapid reopening (in China) triggers fresh waves in some countries or regions, and that may lead to fresh restrictions.
SINGAPORE/LONDON, Dec 29 (Reuters) - The dollar slipped on Thursday after rising in the previous session, with investors on edge at the end of the year as initial optimism over China's reopening fizzled. The yen was last 0.56% higher at 133.72 against the dollar. That followed a 0.73% fall on Wednesday which saw the yen hit a one-week low of 134.50. It climbed as high as $1.206 earlier in the session but gave up some of its gains. Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.08% to 104.26, having climbed 0.18% in the previous session.
SINGAPORE/LONDON, Dec 29 (Reuters) - The dollar slipped on Thursday after rising in the previous session, with investors on edge at the end of the year as initial optimism over China's reopening fizzled. The Japanese yen was last 0.64% higher at 133.66 against the dollar. That followed a 0.73% fall on Wednesday which saw the yen hit a one-week low of 134.50. Analysts warned against reading too much into price moves amid low trading volumes as markets head into the new year. Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.11% to 104.23, having climbed 0.18% in the previous session.
SINGAPORE, Dec 29 (Reuters) - The dollar pared some gains on Thursday after riding long-end U.S. Treasury yields higher overnight, though investors remained on edge going into the year end as initial optimism over China's reopening fizzled. The speed at which the country has scrapped COVID rules has overwhelmed its health system and sparked concerns about the spread of the virus. The Japanese yen was last roughly 0.6% higher at 133.71 per dollar, languishing near a one-week low of 134.50 that was hit in the previous session. Sterling rose 0.1% to $1.2030, but was similarly not far off its three-week trough of $1.1993 hit last week. Meanwhile, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury last stood at 3.8637%, after rising to a more than one-month high of 3.8920% overnight.
After hitting a one-week high against the yen on Wednesday, which saw the dollar touch 134.40, the greenback hit a session low against the yen on Thursday. The dollar last fell 1.050% versus the yen to 133.065. The dollar also fell against the Swiss franc to as low as 0.9208, the lowest level since March 31. Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.23% to 104.100, having climbed 0.18% in the previous session. The aussie was last 0.28% versus the greenback at $0.676., while the kiwi last rose 0.55% versus the greenback at $0.634.
SINGAPORE, Dec 29 (Reuters) - The dollar steadied on Thursday after riding long-end U.S. Treasury yields higher overnight, as initial optimism over China's reopening fizzled. Following China's removal of its quarantine rule for inbound travellers beginning Jan. 8, countries such as the United States, Japan and India said they would require COVID tests for travellers from China. Sterling rose 0.19% to $1.2040, but was similarly not far off its three-week trough of $1.1993 hit last week. The uncertainty over the global economic outlook, along with mounting worries about a recession in the U.S., saw the two-year Treasury yield , which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, slip overnight. Meanwhile, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury last stood at 3.8656%, after rising to a more than one-month high of 3.8920% overnight.
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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailAsia's emerging markets face two 'evolving risks' in 2023, Mizuho Bank saysVishnu Varathan of Mizuho Bank says emerging markets in Asia are gauging "whether there will be any unwanted … macro stability risks from the Fed doing more than what markets are betting on."
[1/2] Banknotes of Japanese yen and U.S. dollar are seen in this illustration picture taken September 23, 2022. REUTERS/Florence Lo/IllustrationNEW YORK, Dec 19 (Reuters) - The dollar edged down against the euro as upbeat German business morale data supported the common currency, while a modest improvement in investors' appetite for riskier currencies weighed on the safe-haven dollar. German business morale rose more than expected in December as the outlook for Europe's largest economy improved despite the energy crisis and high inflation, a survey showed on Monday. The euro rose 0.2 % to $ 1.06085 , not far from the six-month high of $1.0737 touched last week. "I think the dollar is generally softer on slightly higher risk-on trading," said John Doyle, vice president of dealing and trading at Monex USA.
[1/2] Banknotes of Japanese yen and U.S. dollar are seen in this illustration picture taken September 23, 2022. The yen was last 0.4% stronger at 136.19 per dollar, after jumping more than 0.5% to a high of 135.78 earlier in the session. The Japanese government will consider revising next year a joint statement it signed with the BOJ in 2013 that commits the central bank to meeting a 2% inflation target as soon as possible, sources told Reuters. That policy stance and the resulting interest rate differentials with the rest of the world have caused the yen to plunge more than 15% this year. A slew of central bank meetings last week saw the BoE, the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) each raising rates by 50 basis points, with the Fed and the ECB delivering hawkish messages and pledging more hikes ahead, even at the risk of hurting growth.
[1/2] Banknotes of Japanese yen and U.S. dollar are seen in this illustration picture taken September 23, 2022. The yen was last 0.34% stronger at 136.24 versus the dollar, after having jumped more than 0.5% to a high of 135.78 earlier in the session. The Japanese government will consider revising next year a joint statement it signed with the BOJ in 2013 that commits the central bank to meeting a 2% inflation target as soon as possible, sources told Reuters. That policy stance and the resulting interest rate differentials with the rest of the world have caused the yen to plunge more than 15% this year. A slew of central bank meetings last week saw the BoE, the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) each raising rates by 50 basis points, with the Fed and the ECB delivering hawkish messages and pledging more hikes ahead, even at the risk of hurting growth.
[1/2] Banknotes of Japanese yen and U.S. dollar are seen in this illustration picture taken September 23, 2022. The yen was last 0.6% stronger at 135.91 per dollar, after having touched a high of 135.80 earlier in the session. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is aiming to make the BOJ's 2% inflation target a more flexible goal by revising its decade-old joint statement with the central bank, Kyodo news agency reported on Saturday. The current statement commits the BOJ to achieving its inflation target "at the earliest date possible", and the BOJ has steadfastly stuck to its dovish monetary policy. A slew of central bank meetings last week saw the BoE, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) each raising rates by 50 basis points, with the Fed and the ECB delivering hawkish messages and pledging more hikes ahead, even at the risk of hurting growth.
Dollar gains after Fed meet, BOE and ECB in focus
  + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Alun John | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
The dollar was also stronger versus the Swiss franc and Norwegian crown after their respective central banks kicked off a bumper day of central bank meetings, with Swiss rates rising 50 basis points and Norway's 25 basis points, as expected. The dollar traded at 9.8284 Norwegian crowns, up 1.3% on the day and the euro was up 0.6% at 10.434 crowns. The dollar rose 0.3% to 0.9279 francs, but pared its gains after the head of the Swiss National Bank said the central bank had been selling foreign currencies. "The Fed set the tone for central bank meetings this week and we're expecting others to go straight down the line. There is a possibility of a four-way split with different policy markers voting for no change or increases of 25, 50 and 75 basis points.
Crude oil futures jumped on Monday after OPEC said its oil policy will remain unchanged from October. Prices were also boosted by hopes that China's eyeing an exit from its Covid-zero stance. The production cut is equivalent to about 2% of the world's demand, and is the largest reduction since the outbreak of COVID-19. Back in October, OPEC+ had said that the decision was made "in light of the uncertainty that surrounds the global economic and oil market outlooks." OPEC's decision came two days after the European Union and the G7 agreed on a $60 a barrel price cap for Russian crude oil — a move that creates uncertainty in the oil markets.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares (.MIAP00000PUS) fell to the lowest since April 2020 before an attempted rebound in beaten-down Hong Kong tech shares dragged it back to flat. "A short-term technical rebound is the main factor for today's rise," said Kenny Ng, a strategist at China Everbright Securities in Hong Kong. "(The) cumulative decline of Hong Kong stocks is deep." CHINA FLIGHTChinese markets remained volatile and jittery following Monday's withering selloff in Hong Kong. Xi Jinping's new leadership team has raised worries that China will increasingly prioritise the state at the cost of the private sector.
"It's a catch-up, or catch-down, kind of effect," said Galvin Chia, an emerging markets strategist at NatWest Markets. "There are some exceptional factors, but none of these would provide that kind of panacea for underlying risks that remain." Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves fell by $1.4 billion last month to $130.8 billion, due to debt payments and Bank Indonesia's efforts to stabilise the rupiah. read moreData for September also showed a surge in Indonesia's inflation to a seven-year high, reflecting a jump in fuel prices. "If you look at consumption, look at credit growth, everything is domestic, unlike the other export markets in Asia.
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