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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailAsia's emerging markets face two 'evolving risks' in 2023, Mizuho Bank saysVishnu Varathan of Mizuho Bank says emerging markets in Asia are gauging "whether there will be any unwanted … macro stability risks from the Fed doing more than what markets are betting on."
[1/2] Banknotes of Japanese yen and U.S. dollar are seen in this illustration picture taken September 23, 2022. REUTERS/Florence Lo/IllustrationNEW YORK, Dec 19 (Reuters) - The dollar edged down against the euro as upbeat German business morale data supported the common currency, while a modest improvement in investors' appetite for riskier currencies weighed on the safe-haven dollar. German business morale rose more than expected in December as the outlook for Europe's largest economy improved despite the energy crisis and high inflation, a survey showed on Monday. The euro rose 0.2 % to $ 1.06085 , not far from the six-month high of $1.0737 touched last week. "I think the dollar is generally softer on slightly higher risk-on trading," said John Doyle, vice president of dealing and trading at Monex USA.
[1/2] Banknotes of Japanese yen and U.S. dollar are seen in this illustration picture taken September 23, 2022. The yen was last 0.4% stronger at 136.19 per dollar, after jumping more than 0.5% to a high of 135.78 earlier in the session. The Japanese government will consider revising next year a joint statement it signed with the BOJ in 2013 that commits the central bank to meeting a 2% inflation target as soon as possible, sources told Reuters. That policy stance and the resulting interest rate differentials with the rest of the world have caused the yen to plunge more than 15% this year. A slew of central bank meetings last week saw the BoE, the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) each raising rates by 50 basis points, with the Fed and the ECB delivering hawkish messages and pledging more hikes ahead, even at the risk of hurting growth.
[1/2] Banknotes of Japanese yen and U.S. dollar are seen in this illustration picture taken September 23, 2022. The yen was last 0.34% stronger at 136.24 versus the dollar, after having jumped more than 0.5% to a high of 135.78 earlier in the session. The Japanese government will consider revising next year a joint statement it signed with the BOJ in 2013 that commits the central bank to meeting a 2% inflation target as soon as possible, sources told Reuters. That policy stance and the resulting interest rate differentials with the rest of the world have caused the yen to plunge more than 15% this year. A slew of central bank meetings last week saw the BoE, the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) each raising rates by 50 basis points, with the Fed and the ECB delivering hawkish messages and pledging more hikes ahead, even at the risk of hurting growth.
[1/2] Banknotes of Japanese yen and U.S. dollar are seen in this illustration picture taken September 23, 2022. The yen was last 0.6% stronger at 135.91 per dollar, after having touched a high of 135.80 earlier in the session. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is aiming to make the BOJ's 2% inflation target a more flexible goal by revising its decade-old joint statement with the central bank, Kyodo news agency reported on Saturday. The current statement commits the BOJ to achieving its inflation target "at the earliest date possible", and the BOJ has steadfastly stuck to its dovish monetary policy. A slew of central bank meetings last week saw the BoE, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) each raising rates by 50 basis points, with the Fed and the ECB delivering hawkish messages and pledging more hikes ahead, even at the risk of hurting growth.
Dollar gains after Fed meet, BOE and ECB in focus
  + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Alun John | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
The dollar was also stronger versus the Swiss franc and Norwegian crown after their respective central banks kicked off a bumper day of central bank meetings, with Swiss rates rising 50 basis points and Norway's 25 basis points, as expected. The dollar traded at 9.8284 Norwegian crowns, up 1.3% on the day and the euro was up 0.6% at 10.434 crowns. The dollar rose 0.3% to 0.9279 francs, but pared its gains after the head of the Swiss National Bank said the central bank had been selling foreign currencies. "The Fed set the tone for central bank meetings this week and we're expecting others to go straight down the line. There is a possibility of a four-way split with different policy markers voting for no change or increases of 25, 50 and 75 basis points.
Crude oil futures jumped on Monday after OPEC said its oil policy will remain unchanged from October. Prices were also boosted by hopes that China's eyeing an exit from its Covid-zero stance. The production cut is equivalent to about 2% of the world's demand, and is the largest reduction since the outbreak of COVID-19. Back in October, OPEC+ had said that the decision was made "in light of the uncertainty that surrounds the global economic and oil market outlooks." OPEC's decision came two days after the European Union and the G7 agreed on a $60 a barrel price cap for Russian crude oil — a move that creates uncertainty in the oil markets.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares (.MIAP00000PUS) fell to the lowest since April 2020 before an attempted rebound in beaten-down Hong Kong tech shares dragged it back to flat. "A short-term technical rebound is the main factor for today's rise," said Kenny Ng, a strategist at China Everbright Securities in Hong Kong. "(The) cumulative decline of Hong Kong stocks is deep." CHINA FLIGHTChinese markets remained volatile and jittery following Monday's withering selloff in Hong Kong. Xi Jinping's new leadership team has raised worries that China will increasingly prioritise the state at the cost of the private sector.
"It's a catch-up, or catch-down, kind of effect," said Galvin Chia, an emerging markets strategist at NatWest Markets. "There are some exceptional factors, but none of these would provide that kind of panacea for underlying risks that remain." Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves fell by $1.4 billion last month to $130.8 billion, due to debt payments and Bank Indonesia's efforts to stabilise the rupiah. read moreData for September also showed a surge in Indonesia's inflation to a seven-year high, reflecting a jump in fuel prices. "If you look at consumption, look at credit growth, everything is domestic, unlike the other export markets in Asia.
The UK's finance minister Jeremy Hunt will lay out details of some of the government's tax plans Monday. The policy details come two weeks early, after abrupt tax U-turns and the sacking of Hunt's predecessor. The pound rose Monday, after weeks where the tax plans roiled markets as investors fretted about stability. The turmoil prompted Nobel laureate Paul Krugman to say the UK markets were "behaving like those of a developing country." That and political pressure on Prime Minister Liz Truss has led to a series of U-turns on the tax plans in recent days.
watch nowThe world economy may be facing conditions seen during the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis — aggressive U.S. interest rate hikes and a strengthening U.S. dollar. The Thai baht and other Asian currencies collapsed, triggering the Asian Financial Crisis and leading to slumps in stock markets. Reducing currency disparity with the U.S. dollar reduces the risks of capital flights and foreign exchange rate collapses. Nevertheless, he, too, does not anticipate another Asian Financial Crisis. watch now"They largely let exchange rates absorb the external pressure, rather than supporting the currency by selling FX reserves."
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