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The failed assassination attempt on Donald Trump is likely to be on investors' minds this week. Bitcoin surged on haven trade following the event, while the dollar also rose as the "Trump trade" returned. AdvertisementThe failed assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump is expected to dominate markets this week as investors focus on the so-called "Trump trade." Even before the weekend events, economists and analysts were already debating what a Trump presidency would mean for the markets. "Judging by historical parallels, this event will galvanize the Trump vote, meaning the markets will gradually price in the so-called 'Trump trade,'" wrote Rodda.
Persons: Donald Trump, Bitcoin, Trump, , Kyle Rodda, TMTG, Hong, Rong Organizations: Trump, Service, Investors Locations: United States, Tokyo, Paris, Frankfurt
The stock market surge follows a failed assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump over the weekend. Investors bet that the tragic attempt on Trump's life will help hand him to the Presidency once again in November. The gains came two days after the failed assassination attempt of former President Donald Trump at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. Investors laid bets that the attempt on Trump's life would help put him in the White House in 2025. Bitcoin also jumped 9% since the assassination attempt.
Persons: Dow Jones, Donald Trump, , Bitcoin, Trump, bitcoin, Paul Hickey Organizations: Service, Dow Jones, House, Trump Media & Technology Group, Conference, CNBC, Trump, Trump Presidency, Treasury, Here's Locations: Butler , Pennsylvania, Nashville , Tennessee
How Janet Yellen Became an Unlikely Culinary Diplomat
  + stars: | 2024-07-13 | by ( Alan Rappeport | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
There was mayonnaise mixed with ants at a gastronomic taqueria in Mexico City. The garlic at a Persian restaurant in Frankfurt was aged 25 years. And, yes, the magic mushrooms in Beijing were hallucinogenic. “It’s not like it’s a scheme to conduct some sort of diplomacy,” Ms. Yellen, 77, said during an interview in June over scrambled eggs with onions and home fries at Sarge’s Delicatessen and Diner in New York City. The intrigue has been a surprising twist in the tenure of Ms. Yellen, an economist and former Federal Reserve chair, who unlike most previous Treasury secretaries prizes mixing in cultural experiences with the grind of government travel.
Persons: Anthony Bourdain, Janet L, It’s, Ms, Yellen Organizations: Federal Reserve Locations: Mexico City, Frankfurt, Beijing, Russian, New York City
CNN —US consumer prices did something in June that they haven’t done since the early part of the pandemic: They fell. Economists were expecting a 0.1% monthly increase and an annual gain of 3.1%, according to FactSet consensus estimates. Excluding energy and food prices, a closely watched “core” index of underlying inflation also slowed more than expected. Dow futures rose 80 points. Nasdaq futures rose 0.3% as well.
Persons: Organizations: CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics ’, Federal Reserve, Dow, Nasdaq, Treasury
The Chinese yuan made up 99.6% of Russian foreign exchange market in June, Bloomberg reported. This comes after the dollar and euro were barred from Russia's main exchange. One expert predicted this would happen, claiming the yuan would become Russia's main trade currency "once and for all." AdvertisementAverage daily volumes in the foreign exchange market contracted by close to a third in the month's second half, the bank report said. AdvertisementHowever, a surge of Russian demand for the Chinese currency has created a yuan liquidity shortage, Bloomberg separately reported.
Persons: , Moex, Alexandra Prokopenko Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, of, Moscow Exchange, Treasury, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, Bank of Locations: of Russia, Moscow, Russia, Beijing, Bank of Russia
Jamaica can't tap into catastrophe-bond funds despite Hurricane Beryl's devastation. With climate change on the rise, cat bonds have grown into a hotter investment. But in this case, investors in the country's $150 million asset won't have to pay a dime, the outlet said. The structure of the cat bonds was such that they paid investors 7% above the US Treasury rate. Climate disasters are not always strong enough to trigger cat bond payouts, an expert told Business Insider in October.
Persons: , That's Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Investments, Treasury, World Bank, Swiss Re Locations: Jamaica, Switzerland
US stocks tested record highs on Friday after the June jobs report sent bond yields tumbling. The US economy added 206,000 jobs in June, but the unemployment rate ticked higher to 4.1%. The higher unemployment rate raised hopes for imminent interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. AdvertisementUS stocks tested record highs on Friday after the June jobs report sent bond yields lower. The April jobs report was also revised lower to 108,000 jobs added that month, down from the initial reading of 165,000.
Persons: , Quincy Krosby, Krosby, Brent, Bitcoin Organizations: Federal Reserve, Service, Federal, Treasury, Manufacturing, PMI Locations: Texas
Yet, in a year of elections around the world, politicians are largely ignoring the problem, unwilling to level with voters about the tax increases and spending cuts needed to tackle the deluge of borrowing. In France, political turmoil has exacerbated concerns about the country’s debt, sending bond yields, or returns demanded by investors, soaring. “Many (politicians) are not willing to talk about the hard choices that are going to need to be made. Despite growing alarm over the federal government’s debt pile, neither Joe Biden nor Donald Trump, the main 2024 presidential candidates, are promising fiscal discipline ahead of the election. Former Prime Minister Liz Truss triggered a collapse in the pound in 2022 when she tried to force through big tax cuts funded by increased borrowing.
Persons: ” Roger Hallam, Karen Dynan, ” Kenneth Rogoff, , don’t, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Biden, Paul Johnson, William Ruto, Liz Truss, hasn’t, Emmanuel Macron, Dynan, it’s Organizations: London CNN, Monetary Fund, Investors, Vanguard, CNN, US Treasury, Harvard Kennedy School, Harvard University, , Congressional, CBO, Trump, Fiscal Studies, United Kingdom, Former Locations: United States, France, Germany, Kenya
The US Treasury sanctioned nearly 50 entities tied to an Iranian shadow-banking network. The Treasury says these firms conceal revenue used by Iran's military to support Houthi and Russian operations. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementIran's "sprawling" shadow-banking network has fallen into the crosshairs of the US Treasury Department, which sanctioned close to 50 entities and individuals tied to these lenders. In a Tuesday announcement, the department described a web of exchange houses and foreign cover companies that are concealing revenue gained by Iran's military, as well as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Persons: Organizations: US Treasury, Treasury, Service, US Treasury Department, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Business Locations: Iranian, Iran, Russia, Ukraine
CNN —An Italian animation company has agreed to pay the US Treasury Department $538,000 for “apparent violations” of US sanctions against North Korea by doing business with a North Korean state-owned animation studio, the department said Wednesday. The outsourcing contract made explicit reference to North Korea, the department said. Mondo’s use of the US financial system to send money to North Korea triggered the Treasury investigation and the threat of fines. Along with Russia, North Korea is among the most heavily sanctioned governments in the world. But the North Korean animation industry has provided an important source of revenue for Pyongyang, according to experts.
Persons: It’s, Mondo, Matteo Corradi, Kim Jong Un, “ It’s, Jenny Town, CNN’s Gianluca Mezzofiore Organizations: CNN, US Treasury, North, Treasury, Mondo TV, Tigers, Treasury Department, Stimson, United Nations Locations: Italian, North Korea, Korean, Rome, China, Italy, London, North Korean, Korea, , Russia, Pyongyang
Yet 16 Nobel Prize-winning economists are warning that Trump’s proposals wouldn’t just fail to fix inflation — they would make matters worse. “We the undersigned are deeply concerned about the risks of a second Trump administration for the US economy,” the economists wrote in the Tuesday letter, which was first reported by Axios. The letter, organized by famed economist Joseph Stiglitz, argued there are valid reasons to worry the Trump agenda will “reignite” inflation. Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump speaks at the Road to Majority conference in Washington, Saturday, June 22, 2024. Jae C. Hong/Pool/APIn the letter, the 16 Nobel economists expressed concern about the rule of law and stability if Trump wins the White House again.
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, Axios, Joseph Stiglitz, Trump’s, Manuel Balce Ceneta, Joe Biden, , Stiglitz, , Biden, Jae C, “ Donald Trump, Robert Shiller, Paul Romer, George Akerlof, Janet Yellen, Biden’s, Joe, Donald Trump’s, ” Karoline Leavitt, don’t, Harry Enten, Moody’s Organizations: CNN, Peterson Institute, Oxford Economics, Allianz, Republican, AP Trump, Congressional, Federal Reserve, Trump, World Bank, Biden, ABC, Voters Locations: Washington, China, U.S, Mexico, Nogales, Ariz
New York CNN —Nvidia’s eye-popping gains this year have helped propel the stock market to repeated record highs. Can Nvidia’s blockbuster gains continue, and what does its outsized market cap mean for the stock rally? Now everyone says, “the market is dependent on Nvidia’s earnings.” You’re going to see a kind of a shift in market cap over the years. “These lower mortgage rates coupled with the gradually improving housing supply bodes well for the housing market.”Still, mortgage rates remain higher than anything seen in the decade before 2022, the year the Federal Reserve began to raise interest rates to combat inflation. The Fed doesn’t directly set mortgage rates but its actions do influence them through the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield, which moves in anticipation of the Fed’s policy moves.
Persons: OpenAI’s, Bell, Christopher Barto, ” You’re, Bryan Mena, Freddie Mac, , Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s, don’t, Read, Ilya Sutskever, Clare Duffy, Sutskever, Geoffrey Hinton Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Nvidia, Microsoft, Fort Pitt Capital Group, Apple, Meta, Google, Amazon, , Federal Reserve, Treasury, Superintelligence Inc, SSI Locations: New York
Saudi Arabia has not renewed a deal that ensures the use of US dollars in the oil trade. The end of this "petrodollar" agreement will dent dollar dominance, the Atlantic Council wrote. This month, Saudi Arabia did not renew a 1974 accord that mandates the exclusive use of greenbacks when selling its crude oil. What's more, US dependence on Saudi oil has slid considerably, given a historic explosion in US domestic production. "China has become Saudi Arabia's largest oil customer, accounting for more than 20% of the kingdom's oil exports.
Persons: , nonresident, Hung Tran, Tran, What's Organizations: Atlantic Council, Service, Saudi Locations: Saudi Arabia, Europe, American, China, Saudi, Beijing, Riyadh
Read previewWanted by the International Criminal Court, Russian President Vladimir Putin still traveled to Vietnam on a two-day visit, where he was warmly welcomed. Russia and Vietnam also have a long history going back to the Soviet era, so his visit is also not surprising. Related storiesWestern allies may rethink "Vietnam's reliability as a strategic partner in the region," Hoang wrote. AdvertisementThis sentimentalism can influence the pragmatism that marked Hanoi's foreign policy for the last two decades, wrote Hoang at the ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute. It's also a smart political move, as a segment of Vietnamese still holds "a deep fondness for Russia," wrote Hoang.
Persons: , Vladimir Putin, Putin, Vietnam —, Hoang Thi, Yusof, Hoang, Janet Yellen, Yellen, Daniel Kritenbrink, Kritenbrink, It's Organizations: Service, International Criminal Court, Business, ICC, US, Russia, Institute, Regional, Political, State, East Asian, State Department, Soviet Union Locations: Russian, Vietnam, Russia, Soviet, Washington, Ukraine, Australia, Japan, Singapore, ISEAS, China, Hanoi, Moscow, Beijing, Atlanta
China's yuan is falling as holders eye the risk of western sanctions. AdvertisementChina's yuan is in the midst of a steep decline as holders of the currency eye the risk of US sanctions. Central banks, meanwhile, are looking to dump the yuan while raising their holdings of the US dollar. Nearly 20% of central bank reserve managers said they planned on raising dollar holdings over the next one to two years, while 12% said they planned on reducing yuan holdings, according to a survey from the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum. Lawmakers are reportedly already drafting sanctions to impose against Chinese banks, sources told The Wall Street Journal in April.
Persons: , Yuan, They've Organizations: US Treasury, Service, Russia's, Monetary, Financial, Treasury, Lawmakers, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg Locations: China, Russia, Ukraine, Moscow
Washington CNN —Mortgage rates fell this week to their lowest level since early April, taking some pressure off America’s unaffordable housing market. “These lower mortgage rates coupled with the gradually improving housing supply bodes well for the housing market.”Still, mortgage rates remain higher than anything seen in the decade before 2022, the year the Federal Reserve began to raise interest rates to combat inflation. Economists don’t expect the average mortgage rate to fall below 6% this year. Homebuilding constrained by high interest ratesWhile mortgage rates have eased recently, the US housing market overall remains hamstrung by elevated interest rates, which seem to be taking a toll on homebuilding. “Persistently high mortgage rates are keeping many prospective buyers on the sidelines,” NAHB Chairman Carl Harris said in a release.
Persons: Freddie Mac, , Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s, don’t, America’s homebuilders, , Carl Harris, ” Skylar Olsen Organizations: Washington CNN —, , Federal Reserve, Treasury, National Association of Home Builders Locations: ., Wells Fargo, America, San Diego , Los Angeles and New York, California, Honolulu
Russia's largest private bank is expanding in China, Bloomberg reported. The move comes amid Russia's and China's increasingly intertwined "no limits" trade partnership. AdvertisementRussia's largest private lender, Alfa Bank PJSC, is planning to expand its business in China. China, though, has made some moves to distance itself from Russia, as it also risks being sanctioned by the West. China's state-run banks said they would restrict lending to Russian clients in late 2023, around the time the US said it would impose secondary restrictions on lenders that help Russia's trade in sanctioned goods.
Persons: , Mikhail Fridman, Russia's Organizations: Bloomberg, Alfa Bank, Service, Treasury, West Locations: China, Beijing, Shanghai, Russian, Russia, Ukraine, Moscow, China's
The US Treasury and IRS are closing a tax loophole used by the ü ber-wealthy. They're cracking down on "opaque" business structures that "inflate" deductions. The proposed regulations could generate $50 billion in new tax revenue, the agencies said. AdvertisementThe Treasury and IRS proposed new tax regulations Monday targeting the über-wealthy that they say could result in $50 billion in new tax revenue over the next decade. The initiative seeks to crack down on "related party basis shifting transactions" — or the use of "opaque business structures to inflate tax deductions," a Treasury press release said.
Persons: Organizations: US Treasury, IRS, Service, Treasury, Business
CNN —The Biden administration on Friday imposed sanctions on an Israeli group for disrupting humanitarian convoys headed to Gaza. The sanctions against the organization are the latest punitive measure taken under an executive order targeting those perpetrating violence in the West Bank. “They also have damaged aid trucks and dumped life-saving humanitarian aid onto the road. President Joe Biden signed an executive order earlier this year allowing sanctions on those causing West Bank violence. The order has been used to roll out sanctions on Israeli settlers attacking Palestinians in recent months.
Persons: CNN —, Biden, Matthew Miller, , , Miller, Joe Biden, CNN’s Clarissa Ward, Brent Swails Organizations: CNN, US Treasury Department, US State Department, West Bank, , Biden, Reuters Locations: Gaza, Kerem, Jordan, Hebron, Israel
New US sanctions against Russia have caused an immediate suspension of trading in dollars and euros on the country’s leading financial marketplace, the Moscow Exchange. “Due to the introduction of restrictive measures by the United States against the Moscow Exchange Group, exchange trading and settlements of deliverable instruments in US dollars and euros are suspended,” the central bank said. The move means banks, companies and investors will no longer be able to trade either currency via a central exchange, which offers advantages such as better liquidity and oversight. The central bank said it would use data from those trades to set official exchange rates. The central bank reassured people these deposits were secure.
Persons: MOEX Organizations: Moscow Exchange, Moscow Exchange Group, , Reuters, Moscow, Norvik Bank, Tsifra Bank, US Treasury, Investments, Forbes Russia, MOEX, Clearing Locations: Russia, Moscow, Russian, Washington, Ukraine, United States, Beijing,
For instance, Yellen will note that the “complexity and opacity” of AI models could cause problems. The problem is that many AI models operate as a “black box,” meaning their inner workings are impenetrable to outsiders. If Wall Street firms are relying on mysterious AI models, regulators will struggle to understand how safe their systems truly are. Likewise, Yellen will say there is a “concentration” risk linked to the fact that there are only a few companies providing AI models. AI models have a history of making stuff up, often in a convincing way.
Persons: Janet Yellen, Yellen, OpenAI’s ChatGPT, , ” Yellen, , “ We’ve Organizations: CNN, US Treasury Department, Brookings Institution, Treasury, IRS, Treasury Department
CNN —President Joe Biden will meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky while he is in Normandy, France, according to White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan. CNN previously reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin was not extended an invitation, according to a French presidential source. Sullivan added that Biden is also expected to meet with Zelensky during the G7 in Italy next week. “In the course of a little more than a week, the president will have two substantive engagements with President Zelensky,” Sullivan said. The two leaders last met in person when Zelensky was in Washington, DC, in December 2023 to make an in-person plea for military and economic aid.
Persons: Joe Biden, Volodymyr Zelensky, Jake Sullivan, , Zelensky, ” Sullivan, Biden, Rishi Sunak, Justin Trudeau, Vladimir Putin, Sullivan, , Janet Yellen’s, Emmanuel Macron, CNN’s Jack Forrest, Joshua Berlinger, Simone McCarthy, Brad Lendon, Eric Cheung Organizations: CNN, White House, Ukraine, Air Force, British, Canadian, Zelensky, , Russia, US, US Army Rangers, Biden, NATO Locations: Normandy, France, he’s, he’ll, Ukraine, Europe, Italy, Washington , DC, Kharkiv, , United States, Germany, Biden’s, Pointe du Hoc
Falling yields and continuing excitement for AI could boost the S&P 500 to 6,500, the firm said. "This expectation that AI hype will increase and that Treasury yields will fall underpins our long-standing forecast for the S&p 500 to hit 6,500 by end-2025." But narrow stock market rallies have the potential to last years, Rielly said, suggesting the stock market run-up could continue for now. Warnings of a market bubble have proliferated as the S&P 500 notched a series of record-highs this year. Capital Economics has also warned of a stock market correction akin to the 1929 and dot-com crashes, which could begin in early 2026.
Persons: That's, , Reilly, that's, Rielly Organizations: Capital Economics, Service, Treasury, Street, NVIDIA, Capital
Washington CNN —US economic data released Thursday was broadly disappointing. And mortgage rates inched higher this week, thrusting the average rate back above the psychological 7% threshold. HousingHousing data released Thursday mostly showed that the market remains tough, especially for first-time buyers. The Fed doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, but its actions, which influence yields, do. There were 219,000 first-time claims filed during the week ended May 25, according to Labor Department data released Thursday.
Persons: ” Oren Klachkin, it’s, Freddie Mac, They’re, ” Lawrence Yun, hasn’t Organizations: Washington CNN, Treasury, Federal, Nationwide, Commerce, Housing, Fed, National Association of Realtors, ” Jobs, Labor Department, Dow, Nasdaq Locations: American
Stocks slipped on Wednesday as traders watched the rise in US Treasury yields. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementStocks dipped on Wednesday — with the Nasdaq falling from a record — as investors watched bond yields move higher for a second day this week, with the 10-year Treasury continuing to climb above 4.5%. US bond yields are hovering around the highest level in about four weeks following a weak government bond auction Tuesday, as well as waning rate-cut hopes amid the latest inflation data.
Persons: Stocks, , Carol Schleif Organizations: Treasury, Marathon Oil, ConocoPhillips, Service, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, BMO Family Office, American Airlines Locations: PCE, Here's
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