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☆ 4 reasons why Wall Street fears that Nvidia's hard-earned gains could go up in smoke
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-27 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

In the last 15 months, Wall Street analysts have hailed generative AI as the most impactful innovation in decades and compared its theoretical impact to that of the internet. While the full impact of AI isn't clear yet, companies are under immense pressure to convince investors that they're not falling behind. "We can't envision any of these large cloud companies or consumer companies pulling back on AI spending anytime soon," Colello said. UBS"This is not always a harbinger of slowing revenue growth and a concentrated H200/B100 launch could be adding to near-term opex," Arcuri wrote in a recent note. AdvertisementDespite what Nvidia's recent performance suggests, Wall Street is notoriously tough to please.

Persons: —, Morgan Stanley, Steve Sosnick, Wedbush's Dan Ives, who's, Marcelli, they're, Sosnick, Brian Colello, Colello, They're, we're, Vivek Arya, Arya, Michael Landsberg, Landsberg, Jason Draho, Draho, Timothy Arcuri, Arcuri Organizations: Service, Wall Street, Business, Nvidia, Interactive, Bulls, Bank of America, Wedbush Securities, UBS, UBS Global Wealth Management, Morningstar, Landsberg Bennett, Wealth Management

☆ Goldilocks scenario is coming through thanks to AI and strong U.S. economy, says Mark Haefele
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGoldilocks scenario is coming through thanks to AI and strong U.S. economy, says Mark HaefeleMark Haefele, Chief Investment Officer of UBS Global Wealth Management, discusses earnings, the S&P 500, and the stock market rally.

Persons: Mark Haefele Mark Haefele Organizations: UBS Global Wealth Management

☆ What's next for the S&P 500 after hitting a record? Nvidia is the key
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-22 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Where markets go next may well depend on how Nvidia does after going forward. "The answer here will depend on NVDA," Tom Essaye of The Sevens Report wrote in a Thursday note. "The stock is at an all-time high ... and if it can hold (or extend) this rally ... it'll imply that tech can help lead this market higher." Nvidia and other artificial intelligence darlings, including Meta Platforms, powered the broader market last year, while other stocks underperformed. I'd rather take it elsewhere in something that hasn't had as much of a run as Nvidia has."

Persons: Tom Essaye, Essaye, Patrick McDonough, Solita Marcelli, Charles Ashley, hasn't, Said PGIM's McDonough Organizations: Nvidia, Revenue, Nasdaq, VanEck Semiconductor, Federal Reserve, Meta, UBS Global Wealth Management, Catalyst Funds

☆ Nvidia's blowout earnings could fuel interest in this 'Magnificent Seven' ETF
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-22 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Meanwhile, the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) rose more than 4% and had already seen 280,000 shares traded as of Thursday afternoon, putting in on track to potentially set a new fund record for daily volume. The Roundhill fund has a simple structure that is resonating with some investors eager to buy even more of the Magnificent Seven. MAGS YTD mountain Roundhill's Magnificent Seven ETF tracks major tech stocks. In addition to capitalizing on investor demand for ways to play the megacap tech stocks, the Roundhill ETF is also a case study in fund marketing. So Roundhill pivoted out of "Big Tech" and into the trendier "Magnificent Seven."

Persons: BIGT, Tesla, MAGS, David Mazza, Mazza, Andrew Stewart Organizations: Nvidia, UBS, Nasdaq, Apple, Microsoft, Tesla, Big Tech, Roundhill Investments, Exchange Capital Management Locations: Americas

☆ Fed rate hikes are creeping back into the conversation
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-21 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. AdvertisementExperts maintain that any hikes this year are unlikely, but say it's notable how they have creeped back into the policy conversation once again. "You can't say zero probability for something to break in the event of another rate hike," Jason Draho, head of asset allocation in the Americas for UBS Global Wealth Management, told Business Insider. "That last mile [of inflation] will be harder to obtain," Anthony Saglimbene, Ameriprise Financial's chief market strategist, told Business Insider. "The Fed's erring on the side of hawkishness," Hunter told Business Insider.

Persons: —, Larry Summers, Summers, Jason Draho, you'd, Goldman Sachs, Anthony Saglimbene, Ameriprise, Paul Mielczarski, Mielczarski, Ameriprise's Saglimbene, Andrew Hunter, Hunter Organizations: Service, Federal, Business, PPI, Fed, Former, Bloomberg, Traders, UBS Global Wealth Management, Capital Economics Locations: Americas, OER, Brandywine, hawkishness

☆ Japan and the UK are in recessions. Is the US next?
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-16 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

New York CNN —And just like that, two of the world’s largest economies are in technical recessions. On Thursday, Japan and the UK both reported their second consecutive negative quarters of gross domestic product, fitting the widely agreed-upon definition of a recession. In 2022, the nation’s population declined by 800,000, marking the 14th consecutive year of contraction. In the UK, however, population and wage growth weren’t sufficient to stave off a drop in consumer spending, one of the main drivers of that economy. In the past two quarters, the nation’s economy experienced much higher than expected GDP growth, due in large part to robust consumer spending.

Persons: Paul Donovan, ” Donovan, Kazuhiro Nogi, ”, didn’t, Jerome Powell, “, it’s, there’s, Powell, Philipp Carlsson, doesn’t, “ it’s, Carlsson Organizations: New, New York CNN, UBS Global Wealth Management, Getty, National Bureau of Economic Research, don’t, US Federal Reserve, Boston Consulting Locations: New York, Japan, Germany, AFP, Ukraine

☆ UBS: China should probably take a more 'proactive approach' to restoring investor confidence
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailUBS: China should probably take a more 'proactive approach' to restoring investor confidenceHartmut Issel of UBS Global Wealth Management discusses the country's bumpy economic recovery and what the Chinese leadership must do to restore investor confidence.

Persons: Hartmut Issel Organizations: UBS, UBS Global Wealth Management Locations: China

☆ 'There's very little margin for error': 7 strategists explain why the Goldilocks narrative is in trouble — but these 8 investments are still worth making now
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-16 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

Investors are pricing in a best-case outcome where earnings rise and inflation returns to normal in a continued economic expansion. “It’s a tough needle to thread,” said Steve Sosnick, the chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. “And that pretty much pulls forward almost all the returns, in our minds, for 2024.”AdvertisementCrit Thomas, a global market strategist at Touchstone Investments, has the same concern. “And so at 21x earnings, there’s very little margin for error here.”AdvertisementFourth-quarter earnings mostly met measured expectations , as did forward guidance. Clark Bellin, the chief investment officer at Bellwether Wealth, said he’s less worried about valuations broadly and is more interested in seeing which sectors look cheap.

Persons: —, ”, Solita Marcelli, “, Sameer Samana, Steve Sosnick, It’s, Steven Wieting, “ We’ve, Crit Thomas, “ I’m, ” Thomas, We’re, Chris Galipeau, ” Galipeau, ” Sosnick, we’ve, Liz Ann Sonders, Schwab, ” Sonders, there’s, Clark Bellin, he’s, ” Bellin, you’re, Stocks, Samana, won’t, Thomas, Wieting, Bellin, “ They’ve, they’re Organizations: Service, Business, UBS Global Wealth Management, Federal Reserve, Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Interactive, Citi Global Wealth’s, Touchstone Investments, Franklin Templeton Institute, Citi Global Wealth, Bellwether Wealth Locations: Wells Fargo, Samana, ” Samana, Galipeau

NEW YORK (AP) — As some of the world’s biggest economies stumble into recession, the United States keeps chugging along. Yet in the United States, the economy motored ahead in last year’s fourth quarter for a sixth straight quarter of growth. But, for now, the outlook continues to appear better for the United States than many other big economies. Even China, whose economy is growing faster than the United States’, is under heavy pressure. Some pillars of support for consumer spending may be weakening.

Persons: Solita Marcelli, Biden, ”, Diane Swonk, They've, Catherine Mann, Morgan Stanley, Chris Kempczinski, he’s, ” ___ Rugaber Organizations: U.S, UBS Global Wealth Management, International Monetary Fund, KPMG, “, Federal, British, Bank of England, Bank of, Japan, Federal Reserve Locations: United States, Japan, United Kingdom, U.S, Government, Americas, Washington, Europe, Ukraine, China

☆ S&P 500 could rise to 5,300 after hitting latest milestone, says UBS wealth head
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-09 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

While the S & P 500 has more doubled since hitting its pandemic low in March 2020, UBS thinks stock values are "well supported" and that the benchmark could exceed its original forecast for 2024. UBS global wealth management chief Mark Haefele said things were lining up for the S & P 500 to make a run toward 5,300 this year, about 6% upside from current levels. Haefele's base case for 2024 was a gain to around 5,000, but the S & P 500 has already reached that point in a hurry, up 5% year-to-date. "In this event, we believe the S & P 500 has the potential to rise to around 5,300 this year." The benchmark is on pace for five-straight positive weeks as tech shares rally and companies report higher fourth-quarter earnings than expected.

Persons: Mark Haefele, Haefele Organizations: UBS, Labor Department Locations: Thursday's

☆ Gauging the risk of contagion from NYCB and commercial real estate woes
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-09 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

The latest concern threatening regional banks started on Jan. 31, when New York Community Bancorp. reported unexpected fourth quarter loss and a large loan loss reserve against futures losses, due in part to the bank's commercial real estate (CRE) exposure. One worry is that the NYCB credit downgrade could spur ratings agencies to take a closer look at other banks, or cause clients to again pull deposits out of regional banks. Determining exactly how unique NYCB's exposure to commercial real estate is will be a key focus for investors and analysts in coming weeks. A note on Wednesday from Wolfe Research analysts focused on banks and commercial real estate showed that regional banks have in general reduced their commercial real estate exposure over the past 15 years.

Persons: NYCB, Ian Lyngen, hasn't, Lyngen, D.A, Davidson, Peter Winter, Winter, Macrae Sykes, Banks, They're, Sykes, Wells Fargo, Jerome Powell, Bond, Tom Fitzpatrick, RJ O'Brien, Fitzpatrick, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Investors, New York Community Bancorp, Moody's, Street, Silicon Valley Bank, BMO, Treasury, Wolfe Research, UBS, Gabelli, CNBC Locations: Silicon, Wells

☆ The US economy is doing well. President Biden wants to know why so many Americans are still feeling bad
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-06 | by ( Mj Lee | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

That has prompted President Joe Biden to repeatedly ask his advisers: Why then are so many Americans still not feeling great about the economy? While inflation has eased in recent months, prices on most goods are still higher than they were in the spring of 2021. Still, Biden’s economic advisers are increasingly telling the president in private that they feel optimistic about the direction things are headed. Historic-high prices that plagued the first few years of the Biden administration continue to moderate, all while economic growth is outpacing expectations. If those trend lines continue, they have cautiously told Biden, consumer sentiment, too, should begin to course-correct.

Persons: Joe Biden, Inflation, Biden, ‘ Sir, we’ll, “, ”, SSRS, Donald Trump, –, ” Biden, – we’re, – Sen, Bob Casey of, greedflation Organizations: Washington CNN, CNN, White, University of Michigan, Conference Board, New York Times, UBS Global Wealth Management Locations: Columbia , South Carolina, America, Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, Las Vegas, American

☆ UBS says the Indian rupee is one of its currency 'top picks' for this year
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailUBS says the Indian rupee is one of its currency 'top picks' for this yearTan Teck Leng of UBS Global Wealth Management says it's "one of our favorite currencies to play the yield carry trades this year."

Persons: Tan Teck Leng Organizations: UBS, UBS Global Wealth Management

☆ Small-cap stocks are the cheapest they've been since 2000 and are an under-the-radar way to profit from AI, a strategy chief predicts. Here are 5 ways to play their upcoming rally.
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-30 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

A soft landing would greatly boost small caps since they're economically sensitive, meaning they tend to thrive in expansions and fall during contractions. Marcelli also made note of smaller companies' weaker balance sheets, though those are arguably accounted for in valuations. With that said, those positive forces appear to be intact, so small caps could finally break out. Instead of selling AI chips or products, smaller companies can enhance their productivity by using the technology, the strategy chief said. 5 sectors where small caps can thriveWithin small caps, Temple said he's less focused on what sector a company falls into and more concerned with whether that firm is financially healthy.

Persons: haven't, Russell, Marcelli, Ronald Temple, Temple, couldn't, there's, Jack Janasiewicz, Janasiewicz, he's, you've, I'd, they've Organizations: Business, Yahoo Finance, UBS Global Wealth Management, Lazard Asset Management, Temple, Reserve, Savings, Nvidia, Devices, Microsoft

☆ A 'Goldilocks scenario' will hinge a lot on what the Fed says, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailA 'Goldilocks scenario' will hinge a lot on what the Fed says, strategist saysKiran Ganesh, multi asset strategist at UBS Global Wealth Management, says "if you get a combination of strong growth, falling inflation and rapid interest rate cuts from the Fed, then that's what is going to take to move the market higher from here."

Persons: Kiran Ganesh Organizations: UBS Global Wealth Management, Fed

The United States has seen a steady decline in the rate of inflation, and yet many American voters are still upset over the cost of daily life. To understand this perception gap, Paul Donovan, the chief economist of UBS Global Wealth Management, argues, we should consider the cost of a Snickers Bar. In this audio essay, he explains that frequent smaller purchases — like candy bars — shape our experience of the economy. (A full transcript of this audio essay will be available midday on the Times website.)

Persons: Paul Donovan Organizations: UBS Global Wealth Management, Times Locations: States

Political Cartoons View All 253 Images"Very soon Oxfam predicts that we will have a trillionaire within a decade. With Brazil hosting this year's Group of 20 summit of leading industrial and developing nations, Lawson said it was a “good time for Oxfam to raise awareness” about inequalities. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has put issues that concern the developing world at the heart of the G20 agenda. To calculate the top five richest billionaires, Oxfam used figures from Forbes as of November 2023. For the bottom 60% of the global population, Oxfam used figures from the UBS Global Wealth Report 2023 and from the Credit Suisse Global Wealth Databook 2019.

Persons: — Tesla, Elon Musk, Bernard Arnault, Jeff Bezos, Larry Ellison, Warren Buffett, ”, Amitabh Behar, John D, Musk, Lawson, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Forbes, ___ Pylas Organizations: Oxfam, Amazon, Oracle, Rockefeller of Standard Oil, Forbes, Brazil, UBS Global, Credit Suisse Global Wealth Locations: DAVOS, Switzerland, Swiss, Davos, Saudi Arabia, Ukraine, London

☆ Inflation is down sharply, but getting to exactly 2% will be tough
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-10 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

New York CNN —The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, measured 2.6% annually in November. So, getting that number down to the Fed’s 2% target should happen in no time, right? That’s because much of the run-up in inflation came from pandemic-induced supply chain disruptions and unusual spikes in demand. The reason is that as inflation cools more, the remaining components that work to keep inflation above the Fed’s target are increasingly “sticky,” meaning they’re the least responsive to changes in market conditions. And it’s so far, so good.”That said, though it’s not the Fed’s go-to inflation gauge, Thursday’s CPI report showed that the road to 2% could come with more bumps.

Persons: ”, John Cochrane, Jerome Powell, Gregory Daco, That’s, Powell, Cochrane, “, ” Paul Donovan, ” Powell, I’d, it’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, Hoover Institute, “, University of Chicago, CNN, UBS Global Wealth Management Locations: New York, EY

☆ After an extraordinary November for stocks, December has a lot in its corner. Here's why
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The stock market is boring right now, and that is not a bad thing. There's a strong backdrop going into December. The S & P 500 was up 8.9%, its best month since July 2022, and the fourth-best November since 1950. If it doesn't seem that way, it's because the S & P has been flat for the past week and a half. There will be lots of complaints about high valuations, and the cynics will be right: The S & P is approaching 19-times 2024 earnings.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, let's Organizations: Triple Witching, Treasury, Atlanta, Wall Street, Deutsche Bank, BMO Capital Markets, Capital Markets, Bank of America, Barclays, Goldman, UBS Global Wealth, Wells, Wells Fargo Securities, JPMorgan, Dow, Revenue Locations: Wells Fargo

☆ New billionaires getting rich via inheritance rather than entrepreneurship in 'great wealth transfer'
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

A new wave of billionaires acquired more wealth through inheritance than entrepreneurship during the last year as a "great wealth transfer" picks up steam, a new report by UBS found. Fifty-three heirs received a total of $150.8 billion, which is higher than the $140.7 billion brought in by 84 new self-made billionaires, the report shows. "The great wealth transfer is gaining significant momentum," Benjamin Cavalli, head of UBS global wealth management strategic clients, told reporters in a briefing on Wednesday. Overall billionaire wealth is recovering, with the number of billionaires being up by 7% in the 12 months to early April of 2023, the UBS analysis showed. Billionaire wealth rose by 9% in this time and ended at around $12 trillion in nominal terms.

Persons: Benjamin Cavalli Organizations: UBS Locations: South Dock, Wharf, London, United Kingdom

☆ Wall Street closes amazing November in a bullish mood, and for good reason
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

We are closing out an extraordinary month: The S & P 500 is up nearly 9%, its fourth-best month in 12 years. The equal weight S & P 500 is up almost as much as the market-cap weighted S & P 500. Of the 10 major financial firms, only two (Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan) see the S & P 500 lower next year. Wall Street strategists' year-end S & P 500 estimates . That puts the S & P 500 at a very rich multiple of almost 19 times forward earnings (17x is the historic norm).

Persons: Russell, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan, bullish, Brian Belski, Scott Wren, Wren, That's, JP Morgan's, Dubravko Organizations: Wall, Deutsche Bank, BMO Capital Markets, Capital Markets, Bank of America, Barclays, Goldman, UBS Global Wealth, Wells, Wells Fargo Securities, Treasury, Core PCE, Wells Fargo Institute, CNBC Locations: Wells Fargo, Atlanta

☆ UBS sees shift in new billionaires away from entrepreneurs to inherited wealth
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The number of billionaires rose by 7% to 2,544 people globally, UBS said in its 2023 Billionaires Ambitions Report, with their total worth rising by 9% to an estimated $12 trillion. For the first time since the study started in 2015, billionaires accumulated more wealth via inheritance than through their own business activities. Among the 137 new billionaires, a total of $150.8 billion was inherited by 53 heirs over the last year, exceeding the 84 new self-made billionaires' total of $140.7 billion, the bank said. The study highlighted a trend away from self-made billionaires, created by the tech industry boom and symbolised by the rise of Tesla boss Elon Musk and Amazon founder Jeff Bezos. Still, despite the large inherited wealth, this did not necessarily mean a new generation of super-rich 20 somethings.

Persons: Denis Balibouse, Benjamin Cavalli, Cavalli, Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, Michael Viana, King Charles, John Revill, David Evans Organizations: UBS, Credit Suisse, REUTERS, Rights, UBS Global Wealth Management, Amazon, Thomson Locations: Swiss, Zurich, Switzerland, flotations

☆ Wall Street is again making predictions for next year, but don't pay too much attention
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Not surprisingly, Wall Street tends to be a bullish group. Wall Street has a terrible track record All of this gets investor juices flowing. Wall Street strategists collectively have a terrible track record. As a result, you might be tempted to think you should pay no attention to Wall Street, or anybody else. If nothing else, the predictions of Wall Street strategists are a good starting point for all of us to think about the near future.

Persons: Lori Calvasina, America's Savita Subramanian, Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Jeff Sommer, Sommer, Morgan Housel, I'm Organizations: Deutsche Bank, BMO Capital Markets, RBC Capital Markets, Bank, America's, Wall Street, of America, Barclays, UBS, Wealth, Wells, Wells Fargo Securities, Street, New York Times, Yardeni Research, Federal Reserve, Wall Locations: Wells Fargo, Russia, Ukraine, Israel

☆ Investors hesitant to move back into China markets, UBS says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInvestors hesitant to move back into China markets, UBS saysEva Lee, head of Greater China equities at UBS Global Wealth Management, said investors are still not fully sure of China markets due to structural issues.

Persons: Eva Lee Organizations: UBS, UBS Global Wealth Management Locations: China

REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Signs the U.S. stock market rally is broadening from the so-called Magnificent Seven of mega-cap growth and technology companies is bolstering investor hopes for a rally through year-end. In one encouraging sign, about 55% of the S&P 500 were trading above their 200-day moving averages as of Monday. Among other signs, the equal-weight S&P 500 (.SPXEW) -- a proxy for the average stock in the index -- rose 3.24% last week. The equal-weight S&P 500 is trading at a 5% discount to its 10-year average forward price-to-earnings ratio, according to Edward Jones. Still, there are reasons to think that the market rally is not on the verge of a sustained broadening.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Adam Turnquist, Meta, Russell, Mona Mahajan, Edward Jones, ” Mahajan, Steve Sosnick, Jason Draho, David Randall, Lewis Krauskopf, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Megan Davies, David Gregorio Our Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, LPL, Microsoft, Nasdaq, Interactive Brokers, UBS Global Wealth Management, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Treasuries

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