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Risk-taking investors also fared well in high-yield bonds, as the fund category generated a 2023 total return of 6.98% through Friday. Big performers in that category include the Pacific Income Advisors High Yield (MACS) Fund (PIAMX) for investors with managed accounts. The BondBloxx CCC Rated USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (XCCC) was also among the strongest performers in the fund category. See below for a list of top performing high yield bond funds, according to Morningstar Direct. "I think these historically high yields have offered attractive entry points for high quality," said Murphy.
Persons: It's, Morningstar, it's, Thomas Murphy, Rowe, Murphy Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Morningstar, Morningstar . Bank, SEC, Pacific Income, PIAMX, Morningstar Direct Locations: U.S
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has built a record $157 billion pile of cash and Treasuries. Buffett is gearing up to snag bargains and strike deals once the economy weakens, Steve Hanke says. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . "This is classic Buffett," Hanke, a professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University, told Markets Insider in a recent interview. The Berkshire boss will profitably put his dry powder to work once the economy slumps, Hanke said.
Persons: Warren, Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett, Steve Hanke, Hanke, , Warren Buffett, they've, who's, Ronald Reagan, Goldman Sachs, Berkshire's, Lee Munson Organizations: Service, Johns Hopkins University, Fed, Toronto Trust, Electric, Dow Chemical, Swiss, Berkshire Locations: American, Toronto Trust Argentina, Berkshire
Here's how Morgan Stanley thinks the stock market will move in 2024, the economic warning signs investors should watch for, and which stocks are best positioned to outperform next year. A stronger stock market in 2024You'd think with the myriad problems stocks are facing right now that the market is in for a difficult year ahead. Wilson believes that earnings growth will accelerate as the year progresses. Morgan StanleyBeyond strong earnings growth for individual companies, Wilson expects that increased spending in a variety of industries will provide fiscal support across the market. Guided by the themes above, Wilson polled Morgan Stanley analysts for their top stock picks heading into 2024.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Michael Wilson, Morgan Stanley Wilson, Wilson, Jerome Powell Organizations: Business, Reserve, Walmart, Target, Fed, White House Locations: headwinds, bailouts
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway held a record $157 billion of liquid assets at the last count. Berkshire is betting on growth and value with Apple and Bank of America, the wealth manager says. AdvertisementWarren Buffett's stack of cash is bigger than ever because he spies problems on the horizon and he's struggling to find bargains, one wealth manager says. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway held a record $157 billion in liquid assets like dollars and Treasury bills on September 30. AdvertisementMunson said that Berkshire is essentially pursuing a barbell strategy of owning both growth and value stocks.
Persons: Warren, Berkshire Hathaway, Lee Munson, , Buffett, He's, Kraft Heinz, he's, Munson Organizations: Berkshire, Apple, Bank of America, Service, Wealth, Yahoo Finance, Chevron, Big Tech Locations: Berkshire, Japan
2023: The year of chasing yield Investors historically chase after stock performance, but 2023 has been the year of chasing after yield performance. This year, the combined assets under management at money market funds grew to a record $6 trillion. There have been large inflows into short-term Treasury funds like the Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (VGSH) and, surprisingly, even into long-term Treasury ETFs like the iShares 20+Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). Still, some think a large chunk of the money in short-term Treasuries and money markets is "scared money" and will be "sticky." Those institutional investors "Don't want any money in cash because it will lag behind the stock market," he told me.
Persons: Paul McCulley, they're, Mark Lehman, Eric Balchunas, Jeff Seyffart, Alec Young, Steve Sosnick, Jim Besaw, Besaw, Mike O'Rourke, JonesTrading, Matt Maley, Miller Tabak, Chris Murphy Organizations: Federal, CNBC, Citizens JMP Securities, Treasury, Treasury Bond ETF, Bloomberg, Schwab Money Fund, MapSignals, Interactive Brokers, Gentrust, UBS Locations: Susquehanna
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway sold a number of stocks last quarter during the volatile market, according to a new regulatory filing. The Omaha-based conglomerate dumped its remaining $780 million stake in General Motors , a stock Berkshire has been trimming for a few quarters. Berkshire also sold its $650 million stake in materials company Celanese , while exiting smaller positions in United Parcel Service , Johnson & Johnson , Mondelez International and Procter & Gamble. These holdings were still worth more than $1 billion each at the end of September, however. Berkshire has also asked the SEC to keep the details of one or more of its stock holdings confidential.
Persons: Warren, Berkshire Hathaway, Johnson, Todd Combs, Ted Weschler, Apple, Kraft Heinz, Moody's, Buffett Organizations: General Motors, United Parcel Service, Johnson, Mondelez International, Procter, Gamble, HP, Chevron, Berkshire, Bank of America, American Express, SEC Locations: Omaha, Berkshire
Chinese bank ICBC hit by ransomware attack
  + stars: | 2023-11-10 | by ( Juliana Liu | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +3 min
Hong Kong CNN —A US unit of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) was hit by a ransomware attack this week that disrupted some of its systems, reportedly hitting liquidity in US Treasuries which may have contributed to a brief market sell-off on Thursday. ICBC Financial Services, which is headquartered in New York, said in a statement that the attack, which happened on Wednesday, had been reported to law enforcement. “We successfully cleared US Treasury trades executed Wednesday … and [repurchase agreements] financing trades done on Thursday,” it said in the statement. The Financial Times and Reuters quoted some market participants as saying trades going through ICBC were disrupted, which affected market liquidity. It’s unclear whether the incident contributed to the weak 30-year bond auction conducted by the US Treasury Thursday.
Persons: , , Wang Wenbin, Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Joe Biden, CNN’s Wayne Chang Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Industrial, Commercial Bank of China, ICBC Financial Services, Treasury, York Branch, State, P, China’s, Ministry, Financial Times, Reuters, US Treasury, Swissquote Bank, Dow, Nasdaq, US Treasury Department Locations: China, Hong Kong, New York, Beijing, York, ICBC, Treasuries, Japan
WASHINGTON (AP) — The credit rating agency Moody’s Investors Service lowered its outlook on the U.S. government's debt on Friday to “negative” from “stable,” citing the cost of rising interest rates and political polarization in Congress. Moody's retained its top triple-A credit rating on U.S. government debt, though it is the last of the three major credit rating agencies to do so. A reduced outlook, however, raises the risk that Moody's could eventually strip its triple-A rating from the U.S. as well. A lower rating on U.S. debt could cost taxpayers if it leads borrowers to demand higher interest rates on Treasury bills and notes. Analysts have warned that with interest rates heading higher, interest costs on the national debt will eat up a rising share of tax revenue.
Persons: Moody's, Fitch, Biden, Moody’s, Wally Adeyemo, , ” Moody's Organizations: WASHINGTON, Moody’s Investors Service, Fitch, AAA, Poor's, Treasury, States ’ Aaa Locations: American, Washington, U.S
Cash from money market funds and other eligible firms flowing into the Fed's reverse repo facility stood at $993.3 billion on Thursday, which was the first time flows fell under the $1 trillion mark since Aug. 10, 2021. Until fairly recently, Fed efforts to pull liquidity out has had only a modest impact on the reverse repo inflows, which had held above $2 trillion per day until mid-June. J.P. Morgan economists said Thursday that reverse repo balances "should decline further" given what's happening with Treasury debt offerings. The accelerating decline of the reverse repo facility has fueled questions about how far the Fed has left to go on shrinking the size of its balance sheet. They project reverse repo levels will stand at $700 billion at that point.
Persons: Cash, Morgan, Michael S, Daniel Wallis, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Fed, Thomson
Thanks to a surge in bond yields, Berkshire's cash, which was mainly parked in short-term Treasury bills, grew to a record level of $157.2 billion. These lucrative government bond investments in turn boosted Berkshire's insurance empire, via so-called float. Berkshire's insurance businesses saw a profit of $2.42 billion last quarter, compared with a loss in the prior-year period. Net seller of stocks Berkshire was a net seller of publicly traded stocks in the third quarter, buying $1.7 billion worth of equities while selling nearly $7 billion. One notable move was that the conglomerate sold about $2 billion worth of Chevron shares.
Persons: Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, Bill Stone, Greggory Warren, Brian Meredith, Meredith Organizations: Glenview Trust, Morningstar, BNSF, Chevron, Berkshire, UBS Locations: Berkshire, Omaha, Omaha , Nebraska, Knox, Glenview
Treasury rates are now elevated across the board as the yield curve begins to flatten out with longer-term rates continuing to rise. Here's the current equity-risk premium, which is how much the S&P 500 is expected to return annually over the next decade in excess of the 10-year Treasury note. As for downward pressure on the economy, Mulholland said the effects of higher interest rates would continue to show up in several ways. Businesses will be more hesitant to borrow money to expand as much amid higher rates, Mulholland said, and banks will be less likely to lend money. "Investors who make regular withdrawals or have large liquidity needs on the horizon would be smart to reduce stock market exposure now," Mulholland said.
Persons: Stephen Mulholland, it's, Mulholland, Rosenberg, Stocks, Louis Organizations: Mulholland, Federal Reserve, Rosenberg Research, US Treasury Bills, Federal Reserve Bank of St, of Labor Statistics, Conference Locations: Fed's, American
His company Berkshire Hathaway sold over $5 billion of stocks on a net basis, its earnings show. Berkshire's cash pile grew to a record $157 billion, surpassing Disney's market capitalization. AdvertisementAdvertisementWarren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway grew its cash pile by 7% to an astounding $157 billion last quarter, smashing the conglomerate's previous record of $149 billion in late 2021. They poured a record $68 billion into stocks last year, or $34 billion on a net basis. Their total cash and cash equivalents fell by 21% to $26 billion between January and September, while their short-term Treasury pile swelled by 36% to $126 billion.
Persons: Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, , Warren, Buffett, . Buffett, Charlie Munger Organizations: Berkshire, Service, Disney, Travel Centers, BNSF Railway, Berkshire Hathaway Energy Locations: Alleghany, Berkshire
Jeffrey Gundlach sees an economic downturn on the horizon, but he also sees an opportunity emerging for income investors. Gundlach, founder of DoubleLine Capital, sees interest rates falling as the U.S. economy moves into a recession in the first part of 2024 . However, investors seeking income may do well to step out a little further on the yield curve, rather than hiding in 6-month Treasury bills and cash-like investments. Investors in holdings that are too short-dated may find themselves exposed to reinvestment risk as rates decline. He said investors could buy "the entire yield curve at this point."
Persons: Jeffrey Gundlach, Gundlach, Stanley Druckenmiller's Organizations: DoubleLine Locations: U.S
Olivier Douliery | Afp | Getty ImagesAuctions of government debt, normally routine events for the Treasury Department, have suddenly become very important to financial markets. That's why an announcement Wednesday on refunding, entailing the size of auctions as well as the duration mix of the debt that will be issued, is expected to draw even more market interest. Indeed, the two entities are both pivotal in determining how the U.S. is going to manage its mammoth debt load. That symbiotic relationship will be on full display this week when the Treasury Department makes its refunding announcement Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET, and the Fed follows with its decision on interest rates that same day at 2 p.m.
Persons: Janet Yellen, Olivier Douliery, Josh Emanuel, Emanuel, Morgan Stanley, Stanley Druckenmiller, Druckenmiller, Alexander Hamilton, Paul Tudor Jones, she's, Dhingra, Thomas Simons Organizations: Treasury, Foreign Investment, United States, Treasury Department, Afp, Getty, Federal Reserve, Duquesne Capital, Robin Hood Foundation, Jefferies Locations: Washington ,, refunding, Wilshire, U.S
New York CNN —If you want to aggravate the US bond market, just remind traders how high the nation’s budget deficit is. The latest tally from the Treasury Department for the fiscal year that ended September 30 put the deficit at $1.7 trillion. All else being equal, that tends to push bond prices down, which causes yields to go higher. That suggests there are other factors that may be outweighing the effects of the war that are driving yields higher, said Snyderman. Also, since the debt ceiling was suspended in June, the Treasury has been issuing more bonds to fund government spending, pushing bond prices down.
Persons: it’s, Joe, That’s, shrugged, Lisa Shalett, Janet Yellen, Rachel Snyderman, Biden, ” Snyderman, John Lynch, Israel doesn’t Organizations: New, New York CNN, Treasury Department, Treasury, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, Bloomberg, Center, CNN, , Congressional, Federal Reserve, Hamas, Fitch, Moody’s, Service, Comerica Wealth Management Locations: New York, Israel, Ukraine, Gaza, United States
Daniel Grill | Getty ImagesHow cash stuffing worksAfter gaining popularity on TikTok, more young adults are trying the so-called envelope method, or "cash stuffing," to stay on budget and out of debt. The premise is simple: Spending money is divided up into envelopes representing your monthly expenses, such as groceries and gas. When the cash in one envelope is spent, you're either done spending in that category for that month, or you need to borrow from another envelope. Some downsides of keeping cashStashing cash not only forgoes the protections that come with consumer banking, it may also leave you vulnerable to theft. Vet financial advice from social mediaFor consumers in search of sound financial advice, "there is a tremendous amount of education out there," said Howard Dvorkin, a certified public accountant and the chairman of Debt.com.
Persons: Daniel Grill, Ted Rossman, it's, McBride, we've, Matt Schulz, Schulz, Howard Dvorkin Organizations: FDIC
ET, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was down around 2.4 basis points at 4.8145% while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond slipped just over 3 basis points to 4.9559%. U.S. Treasury yields continued to moderate on Tuesday after slipping back below 5%, though they remained near 16-year highs. Yields fell after Pershing Square's Bill Ackman on Monday disclosed that he had covered his bond short position. Markets are all but certain that the Fed funds target range will remain unchanged next week, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. Auctions will be held Tuesday for $75 billion of 42-day Treasury bills and $51 billion of 2-year notes.
Persons: Pershing, Bill Ackman, Ackman, Jim Reid, Reid, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Treasury, Deutsche Bank, Treasurys, Federal Locations: London
On Friday, the S & P 500 closed below its 200-day moving average for the first time since March 17. If the total-return version of the index closes below that level for five straight days, then the $2 billion Pacer Trendpilot US Large Cap ETF (PTLC) will automatically sell some of its all-stock portfolio to shift to a 50-50 split between equities and Treasury bills. And if the 200-day moving average itself then starts to fall, the fund will go to 100% T-bills. Still, the fund's rule tied to the 200-day moving average is an example of how the move of a stock or index across a widely-followed indicator can cause volatility. Year to date, the fund is up just under 5% — well below the gain of more than 11% for the SPDR S & P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) .
Persons: rebalance, Sean O'Hara, O'Hara Organizations: Trust, ETF Distributors, Pacer, Nasdaq Locations: technologystocks
Treasury yields rise again as 10-year hovers near 5%
  + stars: | 2023-10-23 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
ET, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose by around 5 basis points to 4.9758%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond climbed around 4 basis points to 5.1286%. U.S. Treasury yields ticked higher on Monday, hovering just below multiyear highs as investors continue to assess the prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates. Fed fund futures pricing reflects a 98% probability that the central bank keeps its main interest rate unchanged at the current target range of 5.25-5.5% at its next monetary policy meeting. Wall Street is awaiting a big week of corporate earnings, with tech titans Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft all set to report. Auctions will be held Monday for $75 billion of three-month Treasury bills and $68 billion of six-month bills.
Persons: Jerome Powell Organizations: Treasury, Federal, Meta, Microsoft
High valuations, despite their little influence on short-term returns, often mean devastating outcomes for investors over a longer period. There's also what he calls "poor market internals," which he tracks through a proprietary measure that monitors the breadth of individual stock performance. Hussman FundsThe combination of poor internals and high valuations are why Hussman says losses could come out of nowhere, and quickly. "Historically, the combination of extreme valuations and unfavorable market action has created a 'trap door' situation for the market," Hussman said. Rather, the steepest market losses have generally emerged from that combination of market conditions, and these losses tend to emerge abruptly, without additional warning."
Persons: John Hussman, Hussman, Irving Fisher catastrophically, Here's, There's, they've, Buckle, Hussman bullish Organizations: Hussman Investment Trust
A Wall Street sign is pictured outside the New York Stock Exchange in New York, October 28, 2013. Wall Street’s most closely-watched measure of investor nervousness, the Cboe Volatility Index (.VIX), on Friday hit its highest in nearly seven months, as the S&P 500 slid for the week. That has left investors piling into other traditional safe-haven assets such as the dollar and gold, as well as short-term debt. Rising bond yields have dampened risk appetite, raising the cost of capital for companies and offering investment competition to stocks. Geopolitical uncertainties, climbing bond yields and the risk of more losses in stocks means "investors face fresh uncertainties," they wrote.
Persons: Carlo Allegri, Angelo Kourkafas, Edward Jones, , Jerome Powell, Brent Kochuba, , Rick Meckler, Lewis Krauskopf, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio Our Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Equity, Treasury, Reuters Graphics, Federal, Microsoft, UBS Global Wealth Management, Swiss, Cherry Lane Investments, UBS, Brent, Thomson Locations: New York, Israel, Cherry Lane Investments .
"In the context of intensified Sino-U.S. strategic competition and the Taiwan Strait conflict, we should be wary of the U.S. replicating this financial sanction model against China," wrote Chen Hongxiang, a researcher at a branch of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) in eastern Jiangsu province. Wang and several PBOC researchers wrote in articles that if the U.S. implemented Russia-style sanctions on China, Beijing should freeze U.S. investment and pension funds and seize the assets of U.S. companies. ENERGY AND ALLIANCESBesides financial sanctions, Russia's response to Western pressure on its oil, gas, metals, and chips industry has given food for thought to Chinese researchers. Chinese researchers also suggested Beijing exploit cracks within the European Union and between the U.S. and its allies. "The mutual penetration of the Chinese and American economies will inevitably weaken the willingness to impose financial sanctions," he wrote.
Persons: Thomas Peter, Chen Hongxiang, Xi Jinping, Yu Yongding, Yu, PBOC, Wang Yongli, Wang, Sun, Mou Lingzhi, Xia Fan, Ye Yan, Martin Chorzempa, Chorzempa, Chen, Eduardo Baptista, David Crawshaw Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, U.S, Moscow, China, People's Bank of China, Reuters, Senior U.S, People's Liberation Army, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, China International Futures, U.S ., China Center for International Economic, Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, China Minmetals Corporation, London Metals Exchange, Oil and Gas Exploration, Development Company, European Union, Peterson Institute for International Economics, EU, Thomson Locations: Fuzhou, Taiwan, Matsu, China, Rights BEIJING, Russia, Ukraine, Jiangsu, Beijing, Russian, U.S, Hainan, Washington, United States
November's rate for new purchases could be higher than the current 4.3% interest on I bonds bought through Oct. 31, leaving some investors wondering about whether to buy more. The variable rate adjusts every six months based on inflation and the Treasury can also change the fixed rate or keep it the same. (The fixed rate stays the same for investors after purchase, and the variable rate adjusts every six months based on the investor's purchase date.) Based on inflation, the variable rate in November will likely increase to 3.94% from 3.38%. But they'd need to purchase new I bonds between Nov. 1 and April 30 to score the increased fixed rate.
Persons: Ken Tumin, David Enna, you'll, DepositAccounts.com Organizations: Getty, U.S . Department of, Treasury Locations:
Tax-exempt income and relative safety are on sale for investors who are sniffing around municipal bonds. Tax-exempt income Interest income from municipal bonds is exempt from federal income tax — and can avoid state and local levies, too, if an investor and the bond issuer are in the same jurisdiction. This feature makes munis especially attractive to high-income investors in the 32% marginal federal income tax bracket and higher. Investors weighing a tax-exempt municipal bond against a corporate bond would do well to check out the tax equivalent yield. Schwab's Howard noted that the 5- to 7-year part of the municipal bond curve is favorable.
Persons: MUB, Nathan Will, Will, it's, Cooper Howard, Schwab's Howard, Shannon Saccocia Organizations: Federal Reserve, Muni Bond ETF, Vanguard, AAA, Bond, ., New York Life Investments, Schwab Center, Financial Research Locations: munis, muni
REUTERS/Carlo Allegri/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Oct 11 (Reuters) - Investors expect hedge funds to produce higher returns with the prospect of interest rates staying higher for longer, a BNP Paribas [RIC:RIC:BNPPL.UL] investor survey showed on Wednesday. Investors now expect hedge funds to return an average of 9.75% annually within an average of 19 months, up from 6.85%, according to the survey. However, hedge funds themselves think this will take longer, up to 29 months, the survey showed. BNP Paribas said historical evidence shows hedge funds tend to perform well in higher and stable interest rate environments and less so when rates are lower. BNP Capital Introduction Group surveyed 82 hedge fund managers in what it called the "summer" of 2023.
Persons: Carlo Allegri, Michael Oliver Weinberg, , , Weinberg, Nell Mackenzie, Dhara Ranasinghe, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: New York Stock, REUTERS, BNP, RIC, Investors, Group, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S
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