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☆ The Fed warned of a looming credit crunch. Americans say it’s already arrived.
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

We just saw a more extreme distribution play out in the stock market, too. Just 20 names drove 90% of the gains in the S&P 500 over the first three months of the year. The Fed has been warning of tightening credit conditions since last month's handful of bank failures, but policymakers spoke as if it were some future event. Remember, a so-called credit crunch means lenders raise the bar for borrowers, and people have to meet stricter parameters to get a loan. "The credit crunch has started," Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, said in response to the report.

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Apollo's Torsten Slok and Bleakley's Peter Boockvar
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Apollo's Torsten Slok and Bleakley's Peter BoockvarTorsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, and Peter Boockvar, CIO at Bleakley Financial Group, join 'The Exchange' to discuss regional banks reorganizing balance sheets, the prolonged effects of a credit crunch, and future Fed policy plans.

☆ In 3 to 6 months service inflation will slow dramatically, says Bleakley's Peter Boockvar
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIn 3 to 6 months service inflation will slow dramatically, says Bleakley's Peter BoockvarTorsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, and Peter Boockvar, CIO at Bleakley Financial Group, join 'The Exchange' to discuss regional banks reorganizing balance sheets, the prolonged effects of a credit crunch, and future Fed policy plans.

☆ Americans are already feeling the effects of a credit crunch
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A Monday New York Fed survey found that Americans' feel like their access to credit is deteriorating. Fed Chair Jerome Powell previously said the banking stress that started with Silicon Valley Bank could trigger a credit crunch. New York Fed Survey of Consumer ExpectationsAdditionally, the survey found that the perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment in the next three months climbed 0.3% to 10.9%. "The credit crunch has started," Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, said in response to the report. Tighter credit conditions means lenders raise the bar for borrowers, and households have to meet stricter parameters to obtain a loan.

☆ 'The credit crunch has started': Here's what tighter lending standards mean for American consumers and businesses as banks navigate the SVB wreckage
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-08 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

"Each bank is going to apply those credit standards differently," a source told Insider. Requiring higher minimum credit scores and minimum repayments and curbing credit limits were among tweaks banks were making. Lending to consumers dropped and credit standards and terms "continued to tighten sharply," with marked rises in loan pricing. A "dramatic worsening of firm and consumer access to bank credit," is how a 2014 paper on the Federal Reserve's website describes a credit crunch. Tighter lending standards may have a big impact on floating-rate loans versus fixed loans, CFRA equity analyst Alexander Yokum told Insider.

☆ Premarket stocks: The US economy is unwell. April could be a cruel month
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

New York CNN —After months of a remarkably strong US labor market and economy, everything seems to be slowing down. The question is whether Friday’s monthly jobs report, easily the most anticipated piece of data out this week, will confirm the trend. The unflinching resilience of the US labor market is one of the greatest sources of tension in today’s economy. Over the past year, the Fed has raised interest rates from nearly zero to a range of 4.75% to 5% to cool the economy. A slowdown in the official US jobs report Friday could signal an economic sea change.

☆ Premarket stocks: These are the only stocks that matter right now
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Leading the way in growth are tech stocks like Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Tesla (TSLA) and Meta (FB). That’s been a boon to large cap tech stocks that are more sensitive to interest rates because they tend to borrow more than established companies and rely more on the prospect of future earnings. But it also means that the current market rally is thin, as the major indexes outperform the average stock. Strong outperformance from the largest stocks often power indexes to rise, said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Schwab, in a note Tuesday. But healthy markets should be characterized by greater participation of the “soldiers” — the rest of the stocks, she said.

☆ The key issue from the banking crisis is a behavioral change in credit, says Apollo's Torsten Slok
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe key issue from the banking crisis is a behavioral change in credit, says Apollo's Torsten SlokTorsten Slok, Apollo Global Management chief economist, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to discuss changes in small bank lending patterns, tighter lending data raising risk of a harder landing, and more.

Deposits held by small U.S. banks dropped by a record $119 billion to $5.46 trillion after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank on March 10, according to data released Friday by the Federal Reserve. "We expect stress in the banking system to weigh on credit growth, which will in turn reduce real GDP growth," Goldman Sachs analysts led by chief economist Jan Hatzius wrote in a note, referring to gross domestic product. Tighter credit conditions will exert meaningful pressure on economic activity, but the effect will not be catastrophic unless the situation escalates into "full-blown crisis of confidence," Barclays analysts wrote in a note last week. U.S. regulators announced on Monday they would backstop a deal for regional lender First Citizens BancShares (FCNCA.O) to acquire failed Silicon Valley Bank, triggering an estimated $20 billion hit to a government-run insurance fund. "Banking system stress remains high, but there are some signs of stabilization," Bank of America Corp (BAC.N) analysts wrote in a note.

☆ As banking sector confidence falters, central banks called on to do more
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-26 | by ( Davide Barbuscia | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

NEW YORK, March 26 (Reuters) - Some investors and analysts are calling for more coordinated interventions from central banks to restore financial stability, as they fear that tumult in the global banking sector will continue amid rising interest rates. On Friday, shares of Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE) plunged amid concerns that regulators and central banks have yet to contain the worst shock to the banking sector since the 2008 global financial crisis. Global central banks including the Federal Reserve have recently taken measures to enhance the provision of liquidity through the standing U.S. dollar swap line arrangements. "The issue with European banks and big U.S. banks at the moment is confidence. Meanwhile, overall deposits in the banking sector have declined by almost $600 billion since the Fed began to raise interest rates last year, the biggest banking sector deposit outflow on record, noted Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management.

☆ Premarket stocks: The banking meltdown may have done the Fed's work for it
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

But in a strange twist, it’s possible that the banking meltdown actually did some work for the Fed in bringing down prices without raising interest rates. That could have the equivalent effect of the Fed hiking rates by half a point, said Goldman Sachs economists on Tuesday. Bank stocks rebound as Janet Yellen, Jamie Dimon work to restore confidenceThe collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank rippled through markets last week. The Treasury secretary reiterated that the federal government would be willing to rescue uninsured depositors at small banks if lenders suffer bank runs, raising the specter of contagion. The SPDR Regional Banking Equity Traded Fund, which tracks a number of small and mid-sized bank stocks, gained 5.8% for the day.

☆ Analysis: Market turmoil is doing central bankers' jobs for them
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde reckons market turmoil may do some of the ECB's tightening for it if it dampens demand and inflation. Financial conditions reflect the availability of funding in an economy, so they dictate spending, saving and investment plans of businesses and households. Central banks have been trying to tighten them by raising rates to slow rising prices. Signs of tightening financial conditions were plentiful. "Central banks no longer have a good idea about the true tightness of monetary policy," he said.

New York CNN —Global banks just suffered their worst week since 2008. Credit Suisse and First Republic: Two more banks wobbled but remained upright through the week. Meanwhile, First Republic bank received a $30 billion lifeline on Thursday from some of the largest banks in the United States. US-traded shares of Credit Suisse were down nearly 7% and First Republic shares plunged by about 33% on Friday. That doesn’t mean that banks taking money from the FHLB and participating in the Federal Reserve’s emergency Bank Term Lending Program, which lent out $12 billion to banks this week, are in big trouble.

Some industry executives said the central bank should prioritize financial stability now. “Go fast and hard on financial stability; go gradual and slow on price stability,” said Peter Orszag, chief executive of financial advisory at investment bank Lazard Ltd (LAZ.N). The central bank declined to comment. Others have joined in, with the European Central Bank raising rates by 50 basis points earlier this week. The events this past week correspond to a 1.5% increase in the Fed funds rate, Slok wrote.

☆ Analysis: Investors brace for hard landing as banking woes stoke recession fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

[1/3] The Charging Bull, or Wall Street Bull, is pictured in the Manhattan borough of New York City, New York, U.S., January 16, 2019. “The no landing scenario has quickly evaporated,” said Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Asset Management. A financial accident has happened, and we are going from no landing to a hard landing driven by tighter credit conditions,” he wrote in a Wednesday note. Some investors believe regulators' quick backstop of Silicon Valley Bank, which included guaranteeing the funds of depositors, will prevent a crisis and allow for a soft landing. “The odds of a soft landing have gone down and the likelihood of a hard landing has gone up,” he said.

☆ Falling Survey-Response Rates Undermine Economic Data
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Josh Zumbrun | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

A jobs fair in Sunrise, Fla., last month. In recent months, markets have been laser-focused on every scrap of economic data for evidence on whether inflation is coming down or a recession is approaching. Unfortunately, that data suffers from a growing problem: reduced responses from the people whose activity it seeks to measure. “There’s more data than there has ever been in the history of the world,” said Torsten Slok , the chief economist of Apollo Global Management Inc. “But the Fed has a dual mandate that’s called inflation and employment. That’s why financial markets spend the vast majority of their time on those two items.”

☆ Analysis: Investors revive inflation trades as 6% Fed rate risk grips Wall Street
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Davide Barbuscia | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

NEW YORK, March 7 (Reuters) - Spooked by a flurry of hotter-than-expected U.S. economic and inflation data last month, investors are reviving trading strategies that bet on a higher peak in interest rates. The recalibration in inflation expectations has led some investors to bet on a policy rate of 6% or even higher. Trading platform Tradeweb said it saw average daily volume in inflation swaps - derivatives used to hedge inflation risk - increase by 23% month-on-month in February. With higher inflation expectations lifting short-term bond yields higher than those at the longer end, some investors are wary of committing to debt maturities at the long end of the bond market yield curve. "The momentum in the economy is so strong that we may have to get into 2024 before the Fed funds rate peaks."

☆ Premarket stocks: Why the Fed is increasingly flying blind on the economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

But lately, some economists have begun to worry that the data on which Fed officials rely is becoming increasingly inaccurate. That causes more volatility in the incoming data and hence more volatility in markets, economists say. To what extent are declining response rates to surveys actually impacting the data we use? It is absolutely critical for the Fed and markets that the incoming data is as reliable as possible. Those earnings reached what Buffett called a “record” — $30.8 billion in 2022, topping the $27.5 billion in the prior year.

☆ Another Stock Market Crash Coming, Wall Street's Top Investors Warn
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Linette Lopez | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +12 min

This elation has lulled Wall Street into a false sense of security, according to the investing world's elite who I've spoken with over the past few weeks. It's like all the good little boys and girls on Wall Street asked for a rally for Christmas and got it. He added that nonprofessional retail investors' strong return to the market indicated an unsustainable rally. Anytime Wall Street has forgotten that over the past year, it has gotten punished. And that means Wall Street will eventually have to open its eyes, take its fingers out of its ears, and watch this bear-market rally fall apart.

☆ This number shows that high inflation is sticking around
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( Julia Horowitz | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

London CNN —The latest inflation figures from the United States, the United Kingdom and the European Union are feeding hopes that the worst is over and some relief for struggling households could arrive soon. Annual inflation in the United States slowed to 6.4% in January, easing for the seventh consecutive month. In the United Kingdom, which faces weaker economic prospects than its peers, the rate of price increases is also falling: In January, annual inflation dipped to 10.1% from a recent high of 11.1% this past fall. “The bottom line is inflation is still a problem,” said Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management. In the United States, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta publishes a version of the Consumer Price Index that tracks “sticky” prices.

If this continues, liquidity from Japan will continue to support global markets," he adds. The BOJ flow in January outstripped the combined liquidity drain from the Fed, European Central Bank and Bank of England, resulting in a G4 net liquidity provision of $115.3 billion. Operations from the ECB and, most notably, the PBOC, have helped pour around $1 trillion of liquidity into the global financial system in recent months. As Citi's King says, when changes in even the least significant line items on central bank balance sheets are measured in the hundreds of billions of dollars, "they should command investors' respect." Related columns:- U.S. debt ceiling saga softens Fed's QT- Bank of Japan shock raises 2023 global liquidity risksBy Jamie McGeever; Editing by Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Premarket stocks: The bear market could make a comeback
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-06 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

New York CNN —Investors who believe the bear market is over are “ignorant,” Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, told CNN. She believes a bigger drop is on its way as the Fed’s rapid interest rate hikes reduce economic growth down the road. Investors, she said, haven’t yet priced that hit to the economy into stock prices. They do, however, see increased interest rates as a long-term positive. How do you grow when you already have such a large percentage of the market share?

☆ Is the Fed ignoring long Covid in its inflation fight?
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-03 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

But it’s premature to say that Covid is no longer an economic issue when long Covid has such a significant effect on America’s workforce, economists and health care officials say. Long Covid, which stems from a Covid-19 infection, is considered a chronic illness that is sometimes debilitating. As many as 30% of Americans, about 23 million people, develop long Covid after a Covid infection, said the US Department of Health and Human Services in November. “Long Covid has harmed the workforce,” said the report, compiled by the New York State Insurance Fund. Caregiving for those suffering from Covid or long Covid is also affecting the labor imbalance, said Giacomo Santangelo, an economics professor at Fordham University.

☆ The economy is doing better than the market is pricing, says Apollo Global's Torsten Slok
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe economy is doing better than the market is pricing, says Apollo Global's Torsten SlokTorsten Slok, Apollo Global Management chief economist, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss Fed sentiment reaching peak hawkishness, inflation moving lower, and the potential for Fed policy adjustments.

☆ Wall Street 2023 Predictions Already Wrong: Recession, Inflation, China
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Linette Lopez | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +12 min

Across Wall Street, finance workers of all stripes are returning to work after skiing, gallivanting around the Caribbean, or just visiting Mom for the holiday season. Of course, there's some uncertainty in all this, and Wall Street could still be proved right. Already some Wall Street economists are revising their predictions given the strong economy, even if they're not backing off their priors quite yet. It may take years to get the Chinese consumer, on which Wall Street has placed so many hopes, back to the strength of yesteryear. Don't hatchet your chickens before they countTo be fair, not every Wall Street analyst is looking sheepish right now.

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