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Job openings unexpectedly rose in August by 690,000 in a surprise that was led by a jump in demand for workers in business services, the Labor Department reported on Tuesday. Job openings rise to 9.6 mil from 8.8 mil last month. That means analysts will wait for other data on the job market out this week to see whether the job openings report is an anomaly. The job openings data lag the other labor market reports this week by a month. On Friday, the government will release its monthly jobs report for September with analysts looking for a continued moderation in the pace of growth in employment.

Persons: “, ” Kathy Jones, Charles Schwab, ”, Geno Cutolo, Mark Hamrick, ” Hamrick, Brij Khurana, Khurana Organizations: Labor Department, Charles, Charles Schwab Center, Financial Research, Federal, Wellington Management Locations: North America

That was close, but in the end Congress found a way to avert a government shutdown. “That said, we still look for the gradual deceleration in labor market conditions to continue in the coming months,” Bullard added. Collectively, the three reports will show whether the labor market is slowing – and by just how much. The week will also reveal whether the markets have settled down following the aversion of a government shutdown and concern over rising interest rates in the wake of the Fed’s pause. “The continuation of the disinflation process suggests that the Fed may not need to hike interest rates again this cycle.”

Persons: ” Sam Bullard, “, ” Bullard, Jerome Powell – Organizations: Federal Reserve, Wells, Labor Department, Stock, BCA Research Locations: August’s, payrolls, Washington

The personal consumption expenditures price index increased 0.4% in August, slightly below estimates, while the yearly rise was 3.5%. But it was the core index that strips out food and energy prices coming in at 3.9%, its lowest reading since September of 2021, that is likely of most interest to the Fed. While goods prices have slowed considerably, costs in the services sector have proven harder to bring down, driven largely by housing prices. Looked at just over the past three months, the rate of core inflation has slowed markedly and is not far from the Fed’s 2% annual target. “PCE and core pce figures indicate continued inflation easing,” Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, commented on X.

Persons: “, ”, Carol Schleif, ” Kathy Jones, Andrew Patterson, Downside, ” Patterson Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Fed, PCE, BMO Family Office, Schwab Center, Financial Research

Home prices rose 0.6% in July, holding their own amid high mortgage rates and a low supply of houses for sale, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index released on Tuesday. On an annual basis, the national index is now up 1% from a year ago. “Areas in the Midwest continue to lead the national gains given their relative affordability. Markets that saw home prices reset following the recent surge in mortgage rates are expected to see stronger gains over the next 12 months, particularly those in the West,” Hepp added. While mortgage rates that have recently topped 8% for a 30-year fixed rate loan are dampening demand, a shortage of homes for sale is keeping prices high.

Persons: ”, Craig J, Lazzara, ” Selma Hepp, ” Hepp, Today’s, Danielle Hale, “ Locations: Chicago, Cleveland, New York

Consumers are growing more pessimistic about future prospects for the economy, according to the latest survey from the Conference Board released on Tuesday. “Consumer confidence fell again in September 2023, marking two consecutive months of decline,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at the business organization. “September’s disappointing headline number reflected another decline in the expectations index, as the present situation index was little changed. “Write-in responses showed that consumers continued to be preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for groceries and gasoline in particular,” Peterson added. “Consumers also expressed concerns about the political situation and higher interest rates.

Persons: ”, Dana Peterson, “, ” Peterson, “ Consumers, Kelly Mangold, Lisa Sturtevant Organizations: Conference, “, Federal Reserve, Census Bureau, U.S . Department of Housing, Urban Development, Real Estate Consulting, MLS, American Financial Corporation

Storm clouds are growing over the U.S. economy as the third quarter winds down this week. There is the ongoing strike by United Auto Workers members against the major car manufacturers. There is the rising price of oil with the international benchmark Brent crude now sitting above $93 a barrel. Aiding the economy’s escape from a downturn has been an unusual set of circumstances that include falling inflation, rising wages and some leftover stimulus from the COVID pandemic. “Such a shutdown could leave a visible mark on the economy,” Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said last week.

Persons: Bob Doll, ” Gregory Daco, ” Daco, ” Wells Organizations: United Auto Workers, Brent, Crossmark Advisors, Federal Reserve, ”, Fed Locations: U.S

A widely followed gauge of future economic activity declined 0.4% in August, continuing a nearly 18-month drop, the Conference Board said on Thursday. The business organization’s Leading Economic Index is now down 3.8% over the past six months and is exhibiting all the signs that a recession is imminent. “The leading index continued to be negatively impacted in August by weak new orders, deteriorating consumer expectations of business conditions, high interest rates, and tight credit conditions. Economists have generally been surprised by the strength of the U.S. economy this year, especially the resilience of the labor market in the face of rising interest rates. However, prices are holding firm with the median price of an existing home reaching $407,100 – up 3.9% from a year ago.

Persons: ”, Justyna, Monica, Jerome Powell, “ I’ve, “ It’s Organizations: Conference, US, Board, Federal Reserve, National Association of Realtors Locations: U.S

The Federal Reserve, as expected, left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday while raising forecasts for economic growth and lowering them for unemployment next year. “Job gains have slowed in recent months but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated.”The central bank updated its forecasts for economic growth, unemployment and inflation. The GDPNow estimate from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is now pegging economic growth in the third quarter at 4.9%. But it would likely curb economic growth at a time when the Fed’s policies have restricted credit and other government stimulus is waning.

Persons: “, ” Powell, ”, Powell, Andrew Patterson, Ruslan Lienkha, Victor Li, Jeff MacDonald, Joe Biden, Donald Trump Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, ”, Villanova University, Federal Reserve Bank of, GOP Locations: Saudi Arabia, Russia, U.S, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

The pace of new construction slowed in August amid high mortgage rates and weakening demand, the federal government reported on Tuesday. Housing starts fell 11.3% in August to an annual rate of 1.28 million, the lowest since the summer of 2020. Builders typically pull permits in anticipation of demand, but housing starts occur when lots are ready to be cleared following deposits on future purchases. “The combination of high interest rates, high pricing, and limited inventory has continued to plague the housing market. “And on the supply-side front, builders continue to grapple with shortages of construction workers, buildable lots and distribution transformers, which is further adding to housing affordability woes.

Persons: ”, Kelly Mangold, Alicia Huey, Ksenia Potapov Organizations: Housing, Real Estate Consulting, National Association of Home Builders, First American Financial Corp, “ Locations: Birmingham , Alabama

Usually when a meeting of the Federal Reserve is on the week’s calendar, economists and market strategists focus on the decision to come. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has all but said policymakers would be on hold for this meeting as they digest recent economic data and consider the effects that 11 interest rate hikes have had on the economy. But the Fed will issue a new set of economic forecasts and projections about where interest rates will be over the remaining months of 2023 and in 2024, along with the unemployment rate. However, the LEI has been flashing a recession signal now for many months. “While the LEI continues to signal recession, incoming data show a resilient economy,” said Sam Bullard, managing director and senior economist at Wells Fargo’s corporate and investment unit.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, ” Steve Wyett, Wyett, LEI, ”, Sam Bullard, ” Bullard Organizations: Federal, BOK Financial, Wells, Congress Locations: U.S

Consumer sentiment dipped slightly in September, indicating Americans are tentative about the direction of the economy, according to the latest survey-based index from the University of Michigan. The overall consumer sentiment index, released on Friday, retreated to 67.7 from 69.5 in August, while the current conditions assessment dropped to 69.8 from 75.7 and the forward-looking expectations index increased to 66.3 from 65.5. “Sentiment this month was characterized by divergent movements across index components and across demographic groups with little net change from last month. There was improvement in how consumers see inflation going forward. That means workers are keeping just ahead of inflation, although prices for necessities such as groceries and gasoline have increased.

Persons: ”, Joanne Hsu, “, ” Hsu, ” Bernard Baumohl, Baumohl, “ They’re, Joe Biden, – Ford, Peter Berezin Organizations: University of Michigan, Consumers, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, Economic Outlook, Supreme, United Auto Workers, General Motors, Senate, Fed, BCA Research, Global Locations: Saudi Arabia, Russia, U.S

Wholesale inflation surged 0.7% in August, largely due to a spike in energy costs, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. The producer price index, a measure of what businesses pay for their supplies, rose 1.6% for the year. The core PPI, excluding energy and food costs, rose 0.3% for the month and 3% for the year, above estimates for increases of 0.2% and 2.2%. The overall August increase is the largest since a 0.9% increase in June of 2022, when inflation began rising sharply, and was fueled heavily by a 10.5% increase in energy prices. On Wednesday, the government said the consumer price index rose 0.6% in August and 3.7% for the year.

Persons: “, ” Julia Pollak, ” Organizations: Labor Department, Analysts, PPI, Research, CPI, Federal

Inflation increased 0.6% in August, as gasoline prices rose, pushing the annual pace to 3.7%, the Labor Department reported on Wednesday. “While goods inflation is expected to deflate, though at a slower pace compared to the last few months, we expect services inflation to remain firm,” said Andrew Patterson, senior economist at Vanguard. Inflation has receded the most in the goods sector of the economy but has proved stickier in services. Housing, in particular, has seen prices remain high while energy costs have been volatile. And wages are still growing at around a 4% annual clip, above the level the Fed would like to see to keep inflation at bay.

Persons: “, ”, Andrew Patterson Organizations: Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Vanguard, Housing Locations: Russia

A trio of economic reports on Tuesday found the U.S. economy generally facing slowing inflation, a weakening but still challenging labor market and diminishing odds of an imminent recession. Yet inflation remains a concern for many businesses, especially smaller ones, according to the August small business optimism index from NFIB. Although the panel of economists sees the economy slowing in the quarter that begins Oct. 1, they also see a reduction in the odds of a recession. The panel forecasts a 48% chance of a recession, down from 50% a month ago and 56% in July. At the same time, the economists see the unemployment rate rising from its current 3.8% to 4.5% by next summer.

Persons: ”, Bill Dunkelberg, ” Jeffrey Roach, “, ” Roach Organizations: Federal, Adobe, Computers, Chip, Wolters Kluwer, LPL Locations: U.S

For months now, inflation has been steadily trending down to a 3% level after hitting 9% last summer. That will likely bring the annual rate to 3.6%. The Fed actually pays attention to a less well-known inflation metric and tends to focus on core inflation minus housing and those numbers are improving. We look for the monthly pace of core inflation to rebound to 0.2%-0.3% in Q4 and keep the annual rate closer to 4% than 3% through year end. The annual rate of headline CPI is also likely to remain stuck just above 3% through the end of 2023.

Persons: ”, Sam Bullard, Wells, ” Bullard, Janet Yellen Organizations: CPI, White, Fed, PPI Locations: India, U.S

These are tough times for the housing market. Meanwhile on Wednesday, the Mortgage Bankers Association said mortgage applications have plunged 28% since last year and are now at the lowest level since late 1996. After two years of a pandemic-fueled housing market frenzy and another year of rising rates and tight inventory, consumers are weary. During the pandemic, as the Federal Reserve moved to lower interest rates, mortgage rates fell to 3% and below, prompting a wave of refinancings. “Mortgage applications declined to the lowest level since December 1996, despite a drop in mortgage rates,” said Joel Kan, deputy chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Persons: Freddie Mac’s, ”, Lisa Sturtevant, ” Sturtevant, Joel Kan, Redfin, Niko Voutsinas Organizations: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Association of Home Builders, Housing, Bright MLS, “, Federal Reserve, Mortgage, Association Locations: Washington, Chicago

“With us, you know what you get, which is rare nowadays!” Alexandre Edelmann, head of Presence Switzerland, a government agency that promotes the country abroad, says in an email. “People love our country without always knowing why,” says Jacques Pitteloud, Switzerland’s ambassador to the U.S. and a veteran diplomat. We are constantly leading the pack in terms of innovation.”This is evident in the prominent role Switzerland plays in some key areas of the global economy. Acknowledging "the elephant in the room," Pitteloud says Switzerland and the EU have "a complex relationship." And as a relatively small, landlocked country in which many areas are difficult to inhabit due to terrain, Switzerland is facing challenges related to population and resources.

Persons: Roger Federer, Philippe, –, Alexandre Edelmann, ”, Jacques Pitteloud, Pitteloud, ” Delphine Donné, Ruag, yearslong, ” Georg Klingler, Donné Organizations: Wimbledon, U.S . News, European Union, Bank, Presence Switzerland, Nestle, Roche, Novartis, Atlas, Logitech, ETH Zurich, Zurich University of Applied Sciences, EU, Greenpeace, Associated Press Locations: Switzerland, Europe, U.S, Swiss, France, China, Canada, Lausanne, Ukraine, Greenpeace Switzerland

The Federal Reserve’s survey of economic activity released Wednesday showed an economy that was expanding at a modest pace in the summer but facing the challenge of a tapped-out consumer and a slowing labor market. There is less unanimity about what the Fed will do after that, at its November meeting. Services inflation is still sticky, the economy may be growing faster than the Fed would like and the Chinese economy is in a slowdown. “Fed Governor Christopher Waller told CNBC yesterday that recent labor market data, including a decline in job openings, moderating wage increases, and slower job growth in August are encouraging,” said Jose Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers. Having said that, he left the door open for another rate hike because he doesn’t think one more would weaken economic growth significantly given risks remain tilted towards not doing enough.”

Persons: ”, “, ” Rhys Williams, Williams, Christopher Waller, Jose Torres Organizations: CPI, Management, Reserve, Dow Jones, “, CNBC, Interactive Locations: “, Saudi Arabia, Russia

Global oil prices backed off the $90 a barrel mark early Wednesday as traders digested the news that Saudi Arabia and Russia would extend their summer production cuts until December. The move is likely to keep U.S. gas prices higher for longer. Many nations joined in putting sanctions on Russian oil when President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine in February 2022. But large oil consumers such as China and India continue to buy Russian oil. Rising oil prices will also be a concern for the Federal Reserve as its campaign to tame inflation is finally bearing fruit.

Persons: ” Patrick De Haan, Hurricane Idalia, De Haan, Vladimir Putin Organizations: Labor, Gas, Hurricane, Federal Reserve Locations: Saudi Arabia, Russia, “, ”, China, Ukraine, India, Germany

A holiday-shortened week often provides markets and economists a moment to reflect. That’s especially the case after Labor Day, a date that signifies the end of the summer. Data last week reinforced the narrative of a slowing labor market and inflation that has cooled off but not quite as much as the Federal Reserve would like. A handful of Fed governors will speak this week ahead of the central bank’s next meeting in two weeks. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs on Tuesday lowered the odds of a recession within the next 12 months to 15% from 20% previously, citing the favorable inflation data, the softening labor market and continued growth in incomes.

Persons: “, Wells, Goldman Sachs, Peter G, Peterson Organizations: Labor, Federal, BCA Research, White

Employers added 187,000 jobs in August, above expectations and in line with a labor market that is rebalancing back to normal, the Labor Department reported on Friday. Other labor market data released this week showed a gradual softening of demand for workers from employers. And private payroll firm ADP’s monthly jobs survey for August found employers added 177,000 jobs in the month, below expectations. “Clearly, the labor market is softening,” says Tony Welch, chief investment officer at Signature FD. The downshift reverses a period of high growth for the labor market coming out of the pandemic.

Persons: ”, Venkat Balakrishnan, Scott Hamilton, Tony Welch Organizations: Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Resources, Compensation Consulting Locations: Washington

Inflation showed its sticky nature in July, rising slightly as increases in services costs offset a decline in the price of goods, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Thursday. The personal consumption expenditures price index, a metric closely followed by the Federal Reserve, rose 0.2% for the month and 3.3% for the 12-month period. The core index, stripping out energy and food costs, rose 0.2% and 4.2%, respectively. “The decline in house prices appears to have abated, which means that the contribution from shelter to core inflation next year may stabilize if not increase. Upside inflation risk is also present in healthcare services where insurance prices are expected to rise this October along with a continued upward pressure on labor demand in the sector, thus suggesting higher wage costs.”

Persons: Joseph Brusuelas, Jerome Powell, ” Powell, ”, Shana Orczyk Sissel, Joe Davis Organizations: Economic, Federal, RSM, Dow Jones, Banrion Capital Management, Vanguard Locations: , Wyoming

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