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☆ How to hedge the overall market with several critical events just around the corner
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

The upcoming month is a crucial time for the stock market, with a series of events that will make an impact. A quick peek at the history of S & P earnings reveals a couple of things. Note that the chart below depicts S & P earnings on a logarithmic scale —S & P earnings have grown by more than ninefold since January 1991. Over the past two years, S & P earnings have grown from ~$196 "per share" to about $204, an increase of 4%, but the S & P 500 Index has risen by more than 60% over the same period. Why not purchase a downside SPDR S & P 500 ETF Trust put spread if these cause a pullback?

Persons: Low, we'll Organizations: U.S, Trust, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: U.S

☆ How to trade the jump in oil and energy stocks using options
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Jeff Kilburg | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Crude oil is nearly $10 higher since October officially kicked off. I want to use the 2024 lagging Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) as way to express my short-term bullish view on the price of oil. XLE YTD mountain Energy Select Sector SPDR, YTD Oil markets are measuring the possibility of an imminent air strike by Israel on Iran's crude and energy facilities. However, I believe that would not be the main driver to push crude higher short-term, in would be the fearful reaction of this war spreading outside the Middle East region. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR.

Organizations: Traders, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: Israel, East, XLE

☆ It's time to sell utility stocks, which are overbought and expensive, according to Carter Worth
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Carter Braxton Worth | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

From time to time in markets, a single area or theme in the market gets "so embraced", "so believed in", "so relied on" that the theme in question becomes "overbought"... "expensive"... "full". Such is the case with the S & P 500 Utilities sector, by our work. The chart below of the Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU) since the 2009 Financial Crisis low, tells the tale. At present, XLU is as "overbought" and "expensive" as at any time since the 2009 low. -Carter Braxton Worth For actionable recommendations via email and live nightly videos become a member at worthcharting.com .

Persons: Carter Braxton Worth Organizations: Utilities, —, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL

☆ Nike stock chart is showing signs of a bottom and a turnaround ahead
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( David Keller | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Before this week's downside price gap, it's worth noting that Nike was testing a major resistance level into last week. To add to this "confluence of resistance," we can also see the 200-day moving average looming large, currently sitting just above $91. The weekly chart can provide some additional context as to what the recent upswing means relative to the long-term trend for Nike. The long-term trend has been decidedly negative for NKE, with price remaining below the 150-week moving average since Q2 2022. Nike also sits below a downward-sloping 40-week moving average, which is essentially the same as the 200-day moving average on the daily chart.

Persons: downtrend, NKE, David Keller Organizations: Nike Inc, Nike, CMT, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL

☆ This one-time food stock is struggling now. How to trade it from here with options
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Conagra Brands' stock fell sharply this week after the packaged-food company reported quarterly earnings that fell well short of analysts' expectations. We'll discuss how to play it with options if this company is caught in a longer-term decline. For the fiscal first quarter ending August 25, Conagra posted an adjusted eps of 53 cents a share, missing estimates. However, the most significant institutional options trades weren't betting on considerable upside. CAG YTD mountain Conagra, YTD Conagra traded eight times the average daily options volume, with puts outpacing calls.

Persons: Conagra, YTD Conagra, Seinfeld, we'll, T Rowe Price Organizations: Brands, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL

☆ How to keep betting on a Meta breakout with protection in case of a pullback
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-02 | by ( Tony Zhang | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The strategic focus Meta has placed on monetizing these AI tools across its platforms — including Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp — gives it a unique competitive advantage. This commitment to revenue generation from AI sets it apart from other firms still exploring AI potential without clear paths to monetization. If we review the chart for Meta, it has shown strong performance, recently breaking above a key resistance level at $545. Meanwhile, the company boasts robust growth projections with an expected future EPS growth of 22% (industry average of 16%) and a revenue growth rate of 15% (industry average of 11%). With these growth and profitability metrics, Meta appears undervalued, offering a compelling risk/reward profile for long-term investors looking to benefit from its AI-driven revenue potential.

Persons: WhatsApp, Meta Organizations: Facebook, Meta, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL

☆ Energy ETF setting up for a breakout of a two-decade range, according to the charts
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-02 | by ( Frank Cappelleri | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) was the worst performing sector ETF in September. The XLE ETF (and many of its holdings) has been trying to etch out a bottom for a number of weeks, and the charts we're reviewing today suggest that momentum finally could be turning positive. XLE has been making lower lows and lower highs since peaking in March. Both prior times, eventually logging a higher low gave XLE the firepower it needed to finally punch through a key downtrend line. Recently, the higher lows have been marginal, but considering that we haven't seen a material lower low in nearly five years, it's noteworthy.

Persons: it's, XLE, It's, XLE's downtrend, We've, Said, we're, Frank Cappelleri Organizations: CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL

☆ An options trade that wins if the stock market and this key sector cool off in October
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-01 | by ( Nishant Pant | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

When a stock or ETF becomes overbought, it can maintain that condition for an extended period. In the one-year daily chart of Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY) below, I've highlighted two similar instances from the past. RSI (Relative Strength Index): As a stock rises, the relative strength index (RSI) measures the strength of the trend. Once in overbought territory, it's advisable to wait until the RSI falls back below 70 before considering a contrarian trade. The trade To benefit from a pullback in XLY, the trade structure I am going to use is called a "bear put spread".

Persons: Nishant Pant Organizations: Federal Reserve, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: overbought

☆ Where the charts indicate gold is headed next as it rallies on escalating geopolitical tensions
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-01 | by ( Todd Gordon | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Before we get started, it's important to point out that I believe that broader equity markets remain in a secular bull market with global central banks' easing monetary policy amid a backdrop of a boom in artificial intelligence that carries equity markets significantly higher in coming quarters. But the key in my opinion was that real interest rates were going higher. The way I'm defining 'real interest rates' is the prevailing nominal yield on a bond, the 10-year Treasury in this example, adjusted by the expected 10-year inflation level. Put simply, real interest rates are how much you actually earn on a fixed income investment after adjusting for inflation. So my outlook is that gold will continue to rally alongside equity markets.

Persons: let's, Todd Gordon, Gordon, HMY Organizations: Harmony, Equity, Treasury, Stock, Edge, Inside Edge, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: South

☆ Levels to watch on the Nvidia chart from Katie Stockton after a poor third quarter for AI leader
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-30 | by ( Katie Stockton | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

—Katie Stockton with Will Tamplin Access research from Fairlead Strategies for free here . Fairlead Strategies Disclaimer: This communication has been prepared by Fairlead Strategies LLC ("Fairlead Strategies") for informational purposes only. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this information must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed absent the written consent of Fairlead Strategies.

Persons: Katie Stockton Organizations: Nvidia, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, Fairlead, CNBC Pro, Securities Locations: NVDA

☆ Using options to bet on a comeback in the athleisure stocks
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-30 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Nike (NKE) and Lululemon (LULU) are two of the most well-known athleisure stocks. NKE YTD mountain Nike, year-to-date The tricky bit is that the promise of that strategic shift will not be reflected in the company's trailing results when they report this week. Buy NKE March 21 $90 call Sell Oct. 18 $95 call Why did I also include Lululemon, another athleisure laggard, in this? Unlike Nike, Lululemon is still growing, albeit slower than it had been previously. LULU YTD mountain Lululemon, Year-to-date However, Lulu is now trading about 20 times forward earnings estimates, a significantly lower multiple than Nike, trading at 26 times forward profits.

Persons: LULU, Lulu, Elliott Hill, John Donahue, Donahoe Organizations: Nike, Nike flatlined, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: Swiss, LULU

☆ This old-line industrial stock is making a classic bearish-to-bullish reversal, says Carter Worth
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-27 | by ( Carter Braxton Worth | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Old-line hand tools manufacturer Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) , founded in 1843, is a fallen champion that's judged to be making a comeback. Its chart pattern qualifies as a "bearish-to-bullish" reversal buy. The chart pattern at present is judged to be a "bearish-to-bullish" reversal buy, with the completion of the bottoming-out process implying a move to the $130+/- level. -Carter Braxton Worth For actionable recommendations via email and live nightly videos become a member at worthcharting.com . BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR.

Persons: Stanley Black, Decker, that's, SWK, Carter Braxton Worth Organizations: CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL

☆ Using options to trade an index that's become a swing trader's dream
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-27 | by ( Nishant Pant | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Although it is very volatile and exhibits wild swings, in the 1-year daily chart shown below, it becomes evident how confined its movement is within a well-defined trading range. Whenever it breaches one of these levels, it quickly stabilizes in a new trading range. Based on this analysis, I am considering a bearish set-up while keeping the top of its current trading range in mind. The trade Given the bearish outlook, I'm using a call credit spread as my trade structure. If the index stays below $2,260 by the expiration date, the trade will yield an ROI of 42% on the capital risked.

Persons: Russell, Nishant Pant Organizations: CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL

☆ A way to play the China stock breakout using options following the big stimulus there
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-26 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The Fed effectively cut rates to zero during the pandemic plunge, and the S & P had an extraordinary bull market. How to play it Consider PDD Holdings . PDD Holdings Inc. is a multinational commerce group that owns and operates several online platforms. PDD YTD mountain PDD Holdings, YTD The share price is nearly 44% below the all-time highs of early 2021. If you're looking for a single stock to get involved with to hitch your wagon to PBOC's train, consider PDD Holdings.

Persons: you've, I've, PDD Organizations: Fed, People's Bank of China, Holdings, PDD Holdings Inc, Pinduoduo, PDD Holdings, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: U.S, United States, China

☆ A china stock poised for a breakout amid this stimulus rally, according to the charts
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The Chinese central bank unrolled the most significant stimulus program since the COVID-19 pandemic and Chinese equities are starting to show signs that the long history of underperformance relative to western equities could possibly be on borrowed time. The name that has already demonstrated leadership that we want to focus on should this move into Chinese names continues is Tencent Holdings (TCEHY) . Before we get further into the company specifics it's important to reiterate that Chinese equities have under-performed U.S. equities since 2007. The goal of the program according to Chinese officials is to return the economy to a 5% growth rate. Turning to the focus company Tencent Holdings (TCHEY) is a multinational technology conglomerate listed on the Hong Kong exchange since 2004.

Persons: TCHEY, Todd Gordon, Gordon Organizations: Tencent Holdings, People's Bank of China, Hong, Inside Edge, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: China, Hong Kong

☆ An options trade that wins if Apple continues to trade sideways or down on iPhone, AI disappointment
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-25 | by ( Tony Zhang | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Apple Inc. (AAPL) is facing headwinds despite the launch of the new iPhone 16, which offered only incremental improvements over the prior generation. Investors eagerly awaited the company's Apple Intelligence software update, but its absence as a significant growth driver is tempering investor enthusiasm. To capitalize on the potential downside, I suggest selling the Nov 15 $230/$245 Call Vertical. This entails: Sell the Nov 15, 2024 $230 Calls @ $7.73 Buy the Nov 15, 2024 $245 Calls @ $2.41 View this trade in OptionsPlay for updated pricing. This trade provides a high probability of profit trade for investors who believe AAPL will remain range-bound or face further downside, particularly given the slowing growth.

Persons: AAPL's, AAPL Organizations: Apple Inc, Apple Intelligence, Apple, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: OptionsPlay

☆ A key chart breakout by this materials stock suggests more upside to come
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-25 | by ( David Keller | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

But improved price action this week suggests Freeport-McMoRan, Inc. (FCX) may be poised for further upside into the fourth quarter. So with a bearish momentum reading at the May peak, then a bullish momentum reading at the August and September lows, FCX was primed for an upside breakout. The breakout in March 2024, leading to the May peak, suggested a new uptrend as the price exited this basing pattern. The stock gapped higher on Tuesday, pushing above short-term resistance around $46 as well as a trendline using the May and July highs. The stock did become overbought this week, with the RSI popping just above the 70 level on the recent breakout.

Persons: FCX, David Keller Organizations: Inc, Freeport, CMT, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: Freeport, McMoRan

☆ A market hedge using options with the S&P 500 up nearly 20% for the year heading into October
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( Jeff Kilburg | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

New all-time highs in the S & P 500 have been welcomed by investors in the wake of the Federal Reserve going big on their first rate cut. The SPDR S & P 500 (SPY) is up nearly 20% year to date, I want to spend some of my remarkable 2024 profits on downside protection in the event a breather to the rally or a downturn is imminent. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, year-to-date Measuring risk is always a challenge, specifically when various headwinds exist at the same time. Additionally, this is the richest valuation we have seen in quite some time with the S & P 500 trading at 24 times. I will look to potentially buy the $591 call if we see a 2% move lower in the S & P 500.

Persons: Jamie Dimon Organizations: Federal Reserve, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: U.S

☆ A popular China ETF is surging Tuesday. It's not time to jump in just yet, according to the charts
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( Frank Cappelleri | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Not surprisingly, the news has given a jolt to the most liquid Chinese ETF today, as well. The iShares China Large Cap ETF (FXI) has been trading even higher than that so far on Tuesday. The ETF was trading considerably higher in pre-market trading hours and opened a whopping 6% higher from the prior day's close. And that's exactly why we need to look beyond the last few months to a get true sense of its trend. And at that point, the ETF would be hitting its highest level since early 2022.

Persons: it's, FXI, that's Organizations: Shanghai Stock, RSI, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: China

☆ Using options to trade the AI-driven power generation buildout
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-23 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Power generation has emerged as a crucial investment theme in the context of artificial intelligence (AI) energy demand due to the significant electricity requirements of AI technologies. Several factors make power generation a vital AI-adjacent investment theme: Data centers, the backbone of AI operations, are among the largest electricity consumers. Investing in power generation becomes vital to support this expanding infrastructure. Fluor offers a wide range of services in the nuclear power sector, including project management, engineering, procurement, construction, and maintenance. The company has experience developing new nuclear power plants and maintaining, refurbishing, and decommissioning existing ones.

Persons: Fluor's, FLR, I've Organizations: Bechtel, KBR, Fluor Corporation, Corporation, Fluor, NuScale, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: Irving , Texas, Fluor

☆ Katie Stockton has an under-the-radar way to play the comeback in wheat and other soft commodities
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-23 | by ( Katie Stockton | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

Persons: CTVA, Katie Stockton Organizations: Invesco DB Agriculture Fund, Wheat, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, Fairlead, CNBC Pro, Securities Locations: CTVA

☆ Pfizer is a bottoming stock that will pay you to wait for the comeback, says Carter Worth
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-20 | by ( Carter Braxton Worth | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Former pharmaceutical champion Pfizer (PFE) , down 52% from its December 2021 all-time high, is judged to be in the throes of a "bearish-to-bullish" Reversal. Pfizer, the laggard the past year: Is now... Pfizer, the leader the past month: By our work, PFE represents a compelling "value play". And with a 5.73% dividend yield, one "gets paid" to wait as the stock continues to bottom. THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR.

Persons: Carter Braxton Worth Organizations: Pfizer, pharma, Pharmaceuticals Industry Group, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL

☆ Rallying Microsoft shares could be forming the troubling 'bear flag' chart pattern
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-19 | by ( David Keller | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The foundation of Dow's work was based on the analysis of price trends, comparing swing highs and swing lows to define and track the trends over time. An initial look at the chart of Microsoft (MSFT) may suggest a consistent uptrend of higher highs and higher lows. And while this short-term uptrend is a valid observation, this also means Microsoft may be forming the dreaded "bear flag" pattern, which often precedes a major downdraft. A bear flag pattern occurs when you have an initial downtrend, in this case, the drop from $470 to $385 from early July to early August of this year. If MSFT would drop below $410 in the coming weeks, that would complete the bear flag pattern, and would also push the price back below the 200-day moving average.

Persons: Charles Dow, Downside, David Keller Organizations: Microsoft, MSFT, CMT, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL

☆ A way to play the too-hot utilities trade now that rate cuts have begun
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-19 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Investors looking to participate in a new growth phase for electricity demand by purchasing the Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU) might be discouraged by its massive run over the past year. We'll review a way to play it with options that adds a buffer of protection. XLU .SPX mountain 2023-10-23 Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund since October low Despite this strong performance, the utilities select sector index still trades at just over 19 times forward earnings, a much cheaper multiple than the S & P's 23.5 times, and typically trades with significantly lower volatility as well. Spurring the economy will likely increase demand, but lowering rates improves the relative attractiveness of utilities for fixed-income investors as well. The trade XLU has an annual dividend yield of 2.8% and would make a fine addition to one's portfolio.

Persons: EVs Organizations: Utilities, Fund, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: U.S

☆ How to play the Fed decision using options on gold
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-18 | by ( Tony Zhang | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Gold is trading at all-time highs due to a combination of inflation concerns, geopolitical risks, and expectations around monetary policy. Historically, gold tends to benefit from dovish monetary policies, especially when they signal prolonged low interest rates, which reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. Gold has maintained its bullish momentum, trading near $2,600, and appears to be breaking into new all-time highs. Looking at the chart, gold has consistently made higher highs and higher lows, a sign of strong upward momentum. The trade To express a bullish to neutral view on gold going into the Fed announcement, consider selling a SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) Nov 1 $237.5/232.5 Put Vertical @ $2.02 Credit.

Persons: GLD Organizations: CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: Central

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