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☆ Russia's top central banker warns of higher inflation as Putin's military draft tightens the labor market
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Russia's top central banker Nabiullina has now warned of higher inflation, thanks to Putin's military draft. She said the draft could lead to structural changes in the labor market, leading to higher labor costs. The Russian central bank expects the country's inflation rate to hit 12% to 13% in 2022. Putin's partial mobilization order has wreaked havoc among Russians and sent many fleeing the draft. Despite the negative fallout from Putin's draft, Nabiullina hedged her bleak outlook on the economy and said the economy "has been adapting to the external restrictions more quickly," in part, due to record-high farm harvests this year.

☆ Russian Economy Expected to Shrink Under Weight of Sanctions
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-28 | by ( Paul Hannon | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

The Bank of Russia left its key interest rate unchanged for the first meeting since March. Russia’s central bank expects the Russian economy to shrink by up to 3.5% this year, with economists forecasting a gloomy future as the country’s huge energy sector struggles to recover from the loss of its lucrative European markets and the windfall of higher oil-and-gas prices starts to fade. The Russian economy is suffering from the impact of sanctions and the withdrawal of Western businesses in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine in February. While Russia has benefited from soaring energy prices this year, economists expect revenue to fall sharply as the global economy slows and the West finds substitutes for Russian energy.

☆ Russia holds rates at 7.5%, cautions on inflationary effects of mobilisation
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-28 | by ( Alexander Marrow | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina, dressed in black with a dab of floral print, said that the bank wanted to give a neutral signal to the market on rates. INFLATIONInflation, which the central bank targets at 4%, stood at 12.9% as of Oct. 24, according to the economy ministry. The central bank tweaked its year-end inflation forecast to 12-13% from 11-13%. "According to the Bank of Russia's forecast, given the monetary policy stance, annual inflation will drop to 5.0–7.0% in 2023 to return to 4% in 2024." The central bank improved its GDP forecast for this year to a contraction of 3-3.5% from an expected 4-6% decline previously.

☆ Russia's cenbank says inflationary expectations edge up in October
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

MOSCOW, Oct 25 (Reuters) - Inflationary expectations for the year ahead among Russian households rose in October to 12.8% from 12.5% in September, the central bank said in a report on Tuesday, just days before it is due to make a decision on its key interest rate. The Bank of Russia targets inflation at 4%. A majority of analysts polled by Reuters expect the bank to hold its key rate at 7.5% on Friday, as an inflation slowdown becomes less marked and geopolitical uncertainty saps consumer demand. The bank has said it pays close attention to household inflationary expectations when making key rate decisions. Reporting by Elena Fabrichnaya; Writing by Alexander MarrowOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Since then, the central bank has cut rates six times, most recently to 7.5% last month. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterTwenty-two of 26 analysts and economists polled by Reuters on Monday predicted that Russia would keep its benchmark rate unchanged (RUCBIR=ECI) on Friday. President Vladimir Putin's partial mobilisation order and subsequent declaration of martial law in four partly-occupied regions of Ukraine that Russia says it owns have exacerbated geopolitical risks. Economic activity slowed significantly at the end of September, the central bank said this month. "Stimulating growth of retailer and corporate lending by lowering the rate is currently pointless, in my view."

☆ Rouble steadies near 61 vs dollar with upcoming rate decision in focus
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

At 0806 GMT, the rouble was unchanged against the dollar at 61.29 . It had gained 0.1% to trade at 60.17 versus the euro and shed 0.5% against the yuan to 8.35 . The rouble is buttressed by a month-end tax period that usually sees export-focused firms convert foreign exchange revenues into roubles to pay domestic tax liabilities. Last month the bank cut rates to 7.5%, but omitted guidance about studying the need for future reductions. Brent crude oil , a global benchmark for Russia's main export, was down 1.3% at $92.3 a barrel.

☆ Rouble hits multi-month low on Ukraine escalation fears
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

By 1201 GMT the rouble was down 1.2% against the dollar at 63.44 after touching 63.9975 for its weakest since July 7. The rouble has been supported by capital controls and a collapse in imports since Western sanctions were imposed over Russia's actions in Ukraine and companies left the market in droves. Promsvyazbank analyst Yevgeny Loktyukhov pointed to escalation in Ukraine and a pullback in oil prices as a reason for the rouble's slide. Brent crude oil , a global benchmark for Russia's main export, was down 1.7% at $94.58 a barrel at 1200 GMT. Russian stock indexes, which were dragged sharply lower by Gazprom (GAZP.MM) in the previous session, were regaining some ground.

☆ Russian c.bank gives legal entities green light to trade foreign shares
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

MOSCOW, Sept 29 (Reuters) - The Bank of Russia on Thursday said legal entities will be permitted to buy the securities of "unfriendly" issuers, those from countries that have imposed sanctions against Moscow, without restrictions. For individuals, from Jan. 1, 2023, brokerages will be prohibited from executing any order from a non-qualified investor to increase a position in securities of foreign issuers from unfriendly countries, the bank said earlier this month. For legal entities, including those without qualified investor status, there are no such restrictions, the bank said. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Elena Fabrichnaya and Alexander Marrow; editing by David EvansOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Russia plans to build 1,000 planes by 2030 by using local parts as aircraft imports into the country have collapsed under sanctions
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-29 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Russia relies heavily on tech imports, which have been hit by sanctions over the Ukraine war. However, given the sanctions against the country, imports into Russia — especially those of aircraft — have collapsed, creating a huge problem for the country, which relies on tech imports. "From this year, we don't rely on international cooperation with Western countries," Rostec told Reuters. "Foreign aircraft will drop out of the fleet," Rostec told Reuters. Russia has tried to counter the sanctions by substituting Western imports with those from non-sanctioning countries or looking to homegrown options.

☆ Russia will be using second-grade tech for years and spending 'huge resources' to recreate what already exists, says a former top Russian finance official
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-22 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Sanctions against Russia will hit tech goods, former finance official Oleg Vyugin told Reuters. Russia's tech industry relies on imports, so it will have to recreate those goods domestically. Russia's tech development will decline if the situation doesn't improve, said Vyugin. That's because when it comes to tech, Russia relies on imports, and imports have been hit by sanctions and boycotts. "If the situation doesn't change, Russia will see a gradual decline in the level of technological development," said Vyugin.

☆ A former top Russian finance official says Western sanctions have been at most 40% effective — but says economic growth will be interrupted for years
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-21 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Sanctions against Russia have been 30% to 40% effective, a former finance official told Reuters. His comments come as Russia's economy continues to appear resilient almost seven months into trade restrictions. While sanctions have not been entirely effectively, Vyugin told Reuters that "the main result of sanctions is that the economic growth process in Russia has been interrupted for several years." Russia's economy ministry expects GDP to contract by 2.9% in 2022, a government official said earlier in September, per Reuters. This will apply to the tech sector, where Russia is reliant on imports, Vyugin told the news agency.

REUTERS/Murad SezerISTANBUL, Sept 19 (Reuters) - Turkish lenders Isbank and Denizbank have suspended use of Russian payment system Mir, the banks said on Monday, following a U.S. crackdown on those accused of helping Moscow skirt sanctions over the war in Ukraine. The suspensions by two of the five Turkish banks that had been using Mir reflect their effort to avoid the financial cross-fire between the West and Russia, as the Turkish government takes a balanced diplomatic stance. In April, he said Russian tourists - critical to Turkey's beleaguered economy - could easily make payments since the Mir system was growing among Turkey's banks. One banker said worries that so-called secondary sanctions could target Turkish banks or firms affected markets. The expanded U.S. sanctions last week targeted the chief executive of the Bank of Russia's National Card Payment System (NSPK), which runs Mir.

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