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The recent sell-off in stocks could be a warning sign for what's coming for the economy, Mark Mobius said. If you look at the money supply growth in America, it is very low now," he said. We have more problems in the US and, that will affect the global situation unless the money supply is increased much more than it is now." Disruptions in the stock market are usually the signal "before the actual economic effects are seen," he added. A full-fledged bear market is unlikely, Bank of America said, as the market isn't flashing technical signals that would suggest a peak in stock prices.
Persons: Mark Mobius, Mobius, , Monday's, Stocks Organizations: Economic, Service, Mobius Capital, Bank of Japan, Economic Times, Fed, Bank of America Locations: Japan, America
A wild week of trading on Wall Street ended with the S & P 500 back roughly where it started, but the lessons learned by whipsawed investors over those five days could determine what happens next. The S & P 500 had its worst day since 2022 on Monday, and then its best since 2022 on Thursday. But with the S & P 500 ending the week down less than 0.1% in a calm session on Friday, the market seems to have stabilized. .SPX 5D mountain The S & P 500 finished the week nearly flat. And I think that has to do with investors really being a little bit skeptical about some of this equity market volatility."
Persons: Tim Hayes, Ned Davis, Gennadiy Goldberg, didn't, Jeremy Schwartz, Peter Berezin, aren't, Wellington, Frank Gretz, RJ O'Brien, Tom Fitzpatrick, Fitzpatrick Organizations: Wall, Treasury, Ned, Ned Davis Research, TD Securities, CNBC, Japan —, Nikkei, Bank of Japan, BCA Research, Wellington Shields, Associates Locations: Japan
New York CNN —After a prolonged period of calm, financial markets went into a tailspin this week. One trigger for the selloff was the unraveling of the Japanese yen carry trade. Some investors say there could be more volatility to come, particularly since it’s unclear how much more the yen carry trade could unwind. The carry trade is “enormous. The unwinding of the carry trade and weak labor data came at a delicate time rife with uncertainty for Wall Street.
Persons: Wharton, Jeremy Siegel, Siegel, , Steve Sosnick, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Dow, Liz Young Thomas Organizations: New, New York CNN, Nikkei, Dow, Nasdaq, Bank of Japan, Companies, Federal Reserve, Investors, CNBC, Interactive Brokers, Markets, Republican, Home Depot, Walmart Locations: New York, Israel, Ukraine, Russia
The recent unwinding of the yen "carry trade" could remain a long-term headwind amid already turbulent markets. JPY= YTD mountain The Japanese yen's appreciation against the U.S. dollar marked the unwinding of the so-called carry trade. "There's still quite a significant yen short position out there," Osborne said. He estimates that there is still a roughly $15 billion yen short position through July 30, still to be covered. In other words, that short position could drive more strength in the yen as that position is covered.
Persons: , Shaun Osborne, Osborne, Everyone's, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, FedWatch, Ben Emons Organizations: Bank of, U.S, Scotiabank, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Wolfe Research, Swiss Locations: Bank of Japan, Japan
The wildest week of 2024 has investors bracing for more volatility in the week ahead, with key insight on the consumer and inflation coming at a time when recession fears are top of mind. Inflation, labor data Next week's inflation data could get less attention than it has over the past year when the Fed's fight against pricing pressures put inflation reports on center stage. Recently, it's been the labor market getting the most attention. "The market's caring much more about about labor markets and growth, than they do inflation right now," Ladner said. Week ahead calendar All times ET Monday, Aug. 12 2 p.m. Treasury Budget (July) Tuesday, Aug. 13 8:30 a.m. Producer Price Index (July) Earnings: Home Depot Wednesday, Aug. 14 8:30 a.m. Consumer Price Index (July) 8:30 a.m.
Persons: Scott Ladner, it's, Ladner, , Strategas, Ryan Grabinski, RJ Assaly, Jeremy Siegel, Chen Zhao, Zhao, Price Organizations: Federal, Walmart, Home, Horizon Investments, Bank of Japan, Wharton, Fed, UBS, Investments, Treasury Budget, Price, Philadelphia Fed, Retail, Manufacturing, Materials, Tapestry, Deere, Co, Housing Locations: U.S, NAHB, Michigan
Dollar gains after U.S. jobless claims fall more than expected
  + stars: | 2024-08-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
Japanese yen banknotes of various denominations are arranged in Kawasaki, Japan, on Friday, June 23, 2023. The dollar rose on Thursday after new U.S. labor market data showed that unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, easing fears of an imminent recession. Initial jobless claims fell to a seasonally adjusted 233,000 for the week ended Aug. 3, the Labor Department said on Thursday, suggesting fears that the labor market is unraveling were overblown. The sharp moves in the yen pushed the dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six others, including the yen, to a weekly high, before backing off. The Australian dollar rose 1.12% to $0.659, while the New Zealand dollar was up 0.25% at $0.601.
Persons: Shinichi Uchida, Eugene Epstein, Uchida, Marc Chandler, Jerome Powell, Vasu Menon, bitcoin, Ether Organizations: Labor Department, Bank of Japan's, Bannockburn Global Forex, U.S . Federal, Swiss, New Zealand Locations: Kawasaki, Japan, North America, Moneycorp, ., Bannockburn
On Thursday, investors in Asia will assess trade data from Japan and interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of India. Global equities and currencies plunged earlier this week after the Bank of Japan hiked interest rates to their highest levels since 2008, and the U.S. released weaker-than-expected employment numbers. Asia-Pacific markets were mostly down in choppy trading on Thursday after U.S. stock benchmarks fell overnight, while investors assessed trade data from Japan and awaited India's rate decision. "Assuming that the price stability target will be achieved in the second half of fiscal 2025, the Bank should raise the policy interest rate to the level of the neutral interest rate toward that time," the summary read. Japanese technology investor SoftBank Group said in a statement on Wednesday that it would buy back up to 500 billion yen ($3.4 billion) of its shares as part of its efforts to boost shareholder returns.
Persons: Shinichi Uchida, Lasertec, Korea's Kospi Organizations: Reuters, The Reserve Bank of, Reserve Bank of India, Global, Bank of Japan, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Nikkei, Bank, SoftBank, Semiconductor, Isuzu Motors, China's CSI, Cathay, Hong Kong's, Airbus Locations: The Reserve Bank of India, Asia, Japan, U.S, Pacific, Hong, Cathay Pacific
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is eyeing a potential interest rate cut in September. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon thinks those two events aren't as significant as many think. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Go to newsletter preferences Thanks for signing up! download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy .
Persons: Jamie Dimon, , CNBC's Organizations: Federal, JPMorgan, Service, Federal Reserve, Bank of, Business
Why Jay Powell refuses to be bullied by Wall Street
  + stars: | 2024-08-08 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
The whole episode underscored a fundamental tension between the Fed, which is focused on economic stability, and Wall Street, which is focused on profit. The message from Powell and other policymakers is clear: We won’t be strong-armed by Wall Street. The BOJ’s deputy governor, Shinichi Uchida, citing volatility in financial markets, said the bank would not raise its policy interest rate as long as markets remain unstable. Powell (formerly in finance, hazel eyes, great ties) appears to have a real opportunity to Volcker it up even more in the coming weeks. That gives Wall Street plenty of time to sit in the corner and deal with its feelings.
Persons: CNN Business ’, Summer, Tim Walz’s, Jerome Hayden Powell, Here’s, Powell, , Powell’s, It’s, Paul Volcker fanboy, Shinichi Uchida, Mohamed El, , Volcker, quieting, Powell isn’t Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, Finance, Federal, Stock, CNBC, Wall, Bank of Japan, Bloomberg Locations: New York, FiDi, Powell, Japan
Hong Kong CNN —Asian markets made solid gains Wednesday, with Japanese shares reversing early losses after a central bank official played down the prospect of an immediate hike in interest rates. The gains follow days of volatility, which saw the Nikkei suffering Monday its biggest daily loss since 1987. “We won’t raise interest rates when financial markets are unstable,” he was quoted as saying in a speech to executives in the northern Japanese city of Hakodate. The central bank has hiked interest rates twice this year in a bid to contain inflation. Decades of extremely low interest rates in Japan had seen many investors borrow cash cheaply there before converting it to other currencies to invest in higher-yielding assets.
Persons: Shinichi Uchida, Kospi, Hong, Taiex, Uchida, , Olesya Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Nikkei, Bank of Japan, US, Dow, Nasdaq Locations: Hong Kong, Asia, South, Hakodate, , Japan, Europe, London
Stocks are rising after Monday's meltdown as Japan assured it will not hike rates if markets are unstable. Some analysts say BOJ's recent rate hike triggered Monday's sell-off as traders unwind yen carry trades. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Just last week, the Bank of Japan hiked interest rates and struck a hawkish stance that signaled more increases ahead following years of ultra-low and even negative rates. On Wednesday, Shinichi Uchida, a deputy governor at the Bank of Japan, said the central would not hike interest rates when the financial and capital markets are unstable.
Persons: , Shinichi Uchida Organizations: Service, Bank of Japan, Business Locations: Japan
When you hear commentators talking this week about the “yen carry trade” or the “great unwind,” they’re referring to a popular trading strategy that is, suddenly, blowing up in investors’ faces. The carry trade, explainedPut simply: A carry trade is when you borrow money in a place where interest rates are low and use it to invest elsewhere in assets that generate some kind of return. “That is bonkers.”The yen carry trade proved especially popular in the last four years, because Japan was the only major economy in the world offering essentially free money. The carry trade relies on borrowing, which means it’s a leveraged position. “The carry trade unwind… is somewhere between 50%-60% complete.”In other words: Buckle up, and don’t panic.
Persons: CNN Business ’, , John Authers, , it’s, John Sedunov, Kit Juckes, ” Sedunov, Arindam Sandilya, JPMorgan Chase, Buckle Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, Wall, ” Bloomberg, Treasury, Villanova School of Business, Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve, Societe Generale, JPMorgan, Bloomberg Locations: New York, Japan, Europe
SoftBank Group booked a 1.9 billion yen ($12.9 million) investment gain on its Vision Fund tech investment arm in the company's fiscal first quarter ended in June, swinging back into the black. However, the Vision Fund segment as a whole posted a 204.3 billion yen loss, after being in profit in the same quarter last year. The Japanese giant also announced it would buy back up to 6.8% of shares available in the company amounting to up to 500 billion yen ($3.4 billion). In the year ago quarter, SoftBank posted 159.77 billion yen gain in its Vision Fund. In the March quarter, SoftBank posted a loss of 57.53 billion yen in its flagship tech investment arm.
Persons: ByteDance —, SoftBank Organizations: SoftBank, Corp, Vision Fund, Vision, Bank of Japan Locations: Tokyo, Japan
Japan stocks rebounded sharply on Tuesday after the Nikkei 225 and the Topix dropped over 12% in the previous session. The Bank of Japan raising rates to their highest level since 2008 on July 30 caused the yen to strengthen to a seven-month high, pressurizing stocks. Markets globally were also spooked by fears of a U.S. recession stoked by a weaker-than-expected jobs report. Real wages in Japan also grew 1.1% in June compared with a year ago, the first time that wages have risen in 26 months. Strong wage growth offers more room for the Bank of Japan to tighten its monetary policy.
Persons: Topix, Korea’s Kospi, Hong, Australia’s, Brent, Dow Organizations: Nikkei, Bank of, Softbank Group Corp, U.S ., South Korean, Samsung Electronics, chipmaker SK Hynix, China’s CSI, . West Texas, Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of Australia, Dow, Nasdaq Locations: Japan, Asia, Pacific, Bank of Japan, U.S
To be sure, the carnage on Wall Street and in equities markets around the world was real. But Monday’s panic was the Wall Street equivalent of a tantrum from a kid who just got told they can’t have ice cream for dinner. But don’t let the stock market drama fool you: The US economy is still in good shape, despite some turbulence. “And I’m not too worried about Wall Street becoming poor.”Stocks looked to bounce back Tuesday. Wall Street worked itself into a lather when ChatGPT came out two years ago.
Persons: CNN Business ’, Stocks, Dow, Wall, don’t, Rana Foroohar, That’s, it’s, Goldman Sachs, , Jan Hatzius, ” Goldman, There’s, Beryl, , Beryl didn’t, Aaron Sojourner, ’ ”, ChatGPT, Rob Haworth, ” Haworth Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, CNN, Nikkei, of Labor Statistics, Coast, BLS, WE Upjohn, Employment Research, White House Council, Economic Advisers, Fed, Federal, Markets, Big Tech, Nvidia, Microsoft, Wall, Bank of Japan, US Bank Locations: New York, Japan
Read previewMarkets are rebounding after Monday's meltdown, injecting challenges into central banks' interest-rate decisions. The market volatility is due to a mix of factors including poor earnings results from several tech giants and a weak July payroll report. AdvertisementSome analysts are speculating that the BOJ rate cut was because it was under political pressure to shore up the floundering yen, Bloomberg reported on Monday. Related storiesGoing forward, the BOJ could have a harder time with the timing of its rate hike decisions. Talks of an emergency rate cutThe market selloff has also made the Fed's rate hike timing harder.
Persons: , Kospi, Taiwan's Taiex, Kyle Rodda, It's, Vishnu Varathan, Mizuho Bank's, Capital.com's Rodda Organizations: Service, Business, Bank of Japan, US Federal Reserve, , Bloomberg, Nikkei, Japan's, of Finance, Financial Services Agency Locations: Japan, Asia
Squeeze on carry trades leave currency markets on edge
  + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The Japanese yen and U.S. dollar on display in Yichang, Hubei province, Nov 13, 2023. The yen was 1% lower on Tuesday at 145.78 per dollar in early trading, after rising for five straight sessions and touching a seven-month high of 141.675 on Monday. "Sell-offs that manifest themselves through wild swings in the currency markets are sharp and swift, but usually very short lived," said Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group. "Markets are clearly nervous about the divergent paths central banks are taking, leading to lots of volatility." The dollar index , which measures the U.S. unit versus six rivals, was flat at 102.87 in early trading after touching a seven-month low of 102.15 on Monday.
Persons: Jamie Cox, James Athey, undervaluation Organizations: U.S, Federal Reserve, Federal, Harris Financial, Traders, Bank of Japan, Marlborough Investment Management Locations: Yichang, Hubei province, recessionary, Japan, Switzerland, Tokyo
A carry trade involves an investor borrowing a currency with low interest rates and reinvesting it in higher-yielding assets elsewhere — taking advantage of that differential to make a financial gain. Investors piled into yen carry trades in recent years, attracted by Japan's low volatility and ultra-loose monetary policy. Global stock markets meanwhile plunged as "safe haven" assets such as the Swiss franc and U.S. Treasurys were bolstered. "You can't unwind the biggest carry trade the world has ever seen without breaking a few heads," Kit Juckes, chief foreign exchange strategist at Societe Generale, said in a Monday note. Trichet told CNBC Tuesday: "The correction can be seen as a healthy correction, in some respects.
Persons: it's, Jean, Claude Trichet, CNBC's, Treasurys, Kit Juckes, Trichet Organizations: European Central Bank, ., Bank of Japan, U.S, Global, Swiss, Societe Generale, CNBC, Federal Locations: France's, U.S, Europe, United States
The unwinding of the carry trade that's battered stocks in recent days isn't done, JPMorgan says. It says that trade is probably only half over, as Japan looks poised to continue raising rates. AdvertisementThe "carry trade" unwind that helped spark the bloodbath in US stocks over the past few days likely isn't close to over, a JPMorgan strategist says. Market commentators say that's been partly stoked by a surprise 15-basis-point interest-rate hike in Japan, which triggered some investors to unwind a trade that's become popular in recent years. In this trade, investors borrow cheap yen and deploy the cash into higher-yielding assets elsewhere, like US stocks.
Persons: , Arindam Sandilya, that's, Sandilya Organizations: JPMorgan, Service, FX, Bloomberg, Bank of Locations: Japan, Bank of Japan
In its simplest form, the yen carry trade has investors borrowing cheap yen to invest in higher yielding assets, often currencies. For example, because there is not a central source to track currency trades, we have no idea how big the yen carry trade is. The yen is rising, and that is making the yen carry trade less profitable. If the yen goes from 155 to 145, which is where it traded Monday, it will take $68,965 to repay that 10 million yen (10 million yen divided by 145 = $68,965). One positive sign: the ETF to watch is the Invesco Japanese Yen ETF (FXY), which tracks the price of the Japanese yen, had volume six times normal yesterday.
Persons: That's, Nicholas Colas Organizations: Nikkei, Street Journal, Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, U.S, U.S ., Yen ETF Locations: U.S, Japan
The day's rout was sparked by a massive sell-off in Japanese stocks. The Nikkei fell 12.4%, its worst day since the 1987 "Black Monday" crash rattled investors around the world. Spencer Platt / Getty ImagesThe Japanese drawdown, in turn, was partly in response to the worse-than-expected jobs report published Friday that showed U.S. unemployment rising to 4.3% and just 114,000 jobs added in July. As soon as that report was published, stocks started erasing some of their earlier losses, while bond purchases, which had surged as investors sought safe-haven assets, faded. It’s a much easier decision to say I want to take my chips and go home here.”
Persons: Stocks, Spencer Platt, Apple, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, , Michael Farr, Farr Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow, Nikkei, New York Stock Exchange, Getty, Federal, Institute for Supply Management, Bank of Japan, U.S . Federal Reserve, Nvidia, Intel, Microsoft, Buffett, Miller & Washington Locations: New York City, U.S, Berkshire
Monday's global stock market sell-off led to calls for the Federal Reserve to step in , but that could prove to be even more trouble for investors. This sell-off is not being driven banking crisis, and an emergency rate cut by the Fed may hurt more than it helps, said Lawrence McDonald, a bestselling author and market risk expert. "If they do that, they weaken the dollar, they actually strengthen the yen, and this whole carry trade gets worse," McDonald said. The " carry trade " mentioned by McDonald and others as a key reason for this sell-off is related to interest rates in Japan. Central banks in the United States and other developed markets have hiked interest rates aggressively in the post-pandemic period to fight inflation.
Persons: Lawrence McDonald, McDonald, Lehman Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, U.S, Fed, Lehman Brothers Locations: Japan, Central, United States
US stocks plunged Monday amid recession fears and the yen carry trade unwind. AdvertisementUS stocks plunged on Monday as investors worried about a potential recession and the knock-on effects from the unwind of the yen carry trade. All of those factors have drummed up fears that a recession could be imminent, especially given that the Federal Reserve could be "behind the curve" in its failure to cut interest rates last month. AdvertisementHere's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Monday:Some believe the Fed should implement an emergency interest rate cut, including Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel. AdvertisementBut perhaps the biggest driver of Monday's stock market decline was the unwind of the yen carry trade.
Persons: Dow Jones, , payrolls, Warren, Berkshire Hathaway, Jeremy Siegel, Siegel, LPL, Ed Yardeni Organizations: Nasdaq, Bank of, Service, Dow Jones, Apple, Amazon, Intel, Federal, Here's, Bank of Japan, Yahoo Finance Locations: Japan
The global sell-off in equities could end up being a mere "growth scare," according to Fundstrat managing partner and head of research Tom Lee. The index, known as Wall Street's "fear gauge," has more than doubled to above 50 since Friday, when it stood at roughly 23. For his part, Lee has been one of Wall Street's more bullish market commentators . But Lee opined that the sharp spike in Wall Street's fear gauge may suggest that a return to investor confidence could be over the horizon. "We have over three days where suddenly markets reversed, [and] declines like that are generally symmetric but you have to watch the VIX," Lee said.
Persons: Tom Lee, Lee, CNBC's, Russell Organizations: Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Bank of, greenback Locations: U.S, Asia, Japan
Read previewGlobal markets are off to a terrible start to the week. Stock markets are crashing across Asia after Japan's interest-rate hike last week contributed to a selloff that got worse and worse. AdvertisementInvestors are also on edge before the US markets open later in the global day. Global carry trade unwindingThe Bank of Japan raised its interest rate from between 0% and 0.1% to 0.25% on Wednesday — the highest level in 15 years. Japan kept interest rates ultra-low for decades following the implosion of an asset bubble in the 1990s that contributed to persistent deflation.
Persons: , Kospi, India's Sensex, Tony Sycamore, Sycamore, Vishnu Varathan, Mizuho Bank's Organizations: Service, Stock, Business, IG Australia, Bloomberg, CSI, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, ING Locations: Asia, Japan
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