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Toyota Needs a New EV Road Map
  + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( Stephen Wilmot | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
Toyota President Akio Toyoda recently said the car maker is looking at rolling out a dedicated manufacturing platform for electric vehicles. Toyota ‘s incoming boss has a big decision to make on electric vehicles. The world’s largest car maker by sales said Thursday that its President Akio Toyoda would move into the chairman role in April, leaving Lexus President Koji Sato to run the company. The unexpected move was prompted by the decision by current Chairman Takeshi Uchiyamada to retire. Celebrated as the father of the Prius, Mr. Uchiyamada said he saw the need for “generational change.”
Why Tesla Is Still Gunning for Growth
  + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( Stephen Wilmot | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
While tech companies are cutting jobs, Tesla is unapologetically still gunning for growth. This might be the only route it can take. The electric-vehicle maker said late Wednesday that it expects to make 1.8 million vehicles this year, up about 31% on last year’s output. That is well below its longer-term ambition of expanding by 50% a year, perhaps reflecting a bout of caution after the company spent last year fruitlessly chasing the target. But Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk still made it clear that he is committed to expanding as fast as supply chains allow.
Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, says she will stay the course with her plan to raise rates further to tame inflation. After a remarkable run, European stocks may be due for a breather. On Tuesday, a preliminary reading of the closely watched eurozone composite Purchasing Managers Index, which tracks business activity across both manufacturing and services, clocked in at 50.2 for January, up from 49.3 in December. Since the 50 mark separates growth from contraction, the latest reading implies that the core of the European economy has returned to growth this year, albeit only marginally, after a six-month downturn.
Tesla’s Price Cuts Are Good for Lithium
  + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( Stephen Wilmot | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
As a gauge of the lithium boom—and any potential bust—investors often focus on the theatrics of the spot market. But the white-hot industry on which electric vehicles depend is as much about execution: getting more stuff out of the ground cheaply and signing good deals with customers. Shares in Australian lithium-ore miner Pilbara Minerals jumped 13% Friday after it reported strong quarterly operating results. The company is raking in cash as it ramps up output efficiently and sells it at high prices. Chief Executive Dale Henderson said his team is discussing bringing forward its inaugural dividend payment to February.
Bayer Could Go the Way of General Electric and Daimler
  + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Stephen Wilmot | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
A more comprehensive split of Bayer, with healthcare parting ways with crop science, is a clear option for a new boss. In the slow-burning decline of the industrial conglomerate, the next shoe to drop might be German drugs-to-crops giant Bayer . The inventor of aspirin has attracted a lot of attention from activist investors lately. Jeff Ubben ‘s Inclusive Capital Partners disclosed a stake last week. Bluebell Capital Partners, a small European fund that helped to oust the former chief executive officer of French yogurt maker Danone , also has built a stake.
Don’t Write Off Tesla as America’s EV Market Booms
  + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( Stephen Wilmot | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
Tesla ‘s price cuts and the chaotic implementation of President Biden’s new tax credits for electric vehicles obscure a bigger picture: The shift to EVs in America is getting serious. If you’re looking to buy an EV, chances are you’re confused by the new subsidy regime. Investors trying to understand which manufacturers will benefit might feel in a similar position. Could the credits give Tesla a break from its recent run of bad news? Will they disrupt the recent gains of the Korean brand Hyundai and its affiliate Kia ?
Falling Car Prices Will Slow Detroit’s Profit Machine
  + stars: | 2023-01-10 | by ( Stephen Wilmot | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
For the fortunate few that can pay in cash, conditions are gradually getting better for buying a car. By the same token they are getting worse for companies on the other side of the trade. The closely watched Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, which tracks wholesale auction values in the U.S., finished 2022 down 14.9%, its worst ever annual result and far worse than the 3% decline forecast at the start of the year by Cox Automotive, the data provider that crunches the numbers. Adjusted for mix, mileage and seasonality, the index did tick up in December, breaking a 12-month downward trend, but Cox said Monday that it doesn’t expect that to mark the bottom. It is forecasting a further 4.3% decline this year as interest-rate increases reduce buyers’ purchasing power, with the market reaching a more normal equilibrium in the second half.
You May Be Able to Buy a Self-Driving Car After All
  + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Stephen Wilmot | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
A year ago, investors were wildly optimistic about the potential of automotive technologies such as automated driving. They now risk swinging to the opposite extreme. Anyone looking for an idea of the cars that might be on sale in five years’ time likely found the news from this year’s CES in Las Vegas more muted than usual. Stellantis showed off new concept electric vehicles on Thursday, including a highly anticipated Ram pickup truck, but in reality it is playing catch-up with peers such as Ford and General Motors . Sony unveiled a brand for its new automotive joint venture with Honda , Afeela, but didn’t give many details of the much-hyped EV they expect to start selling in North America in 2026.
Tesla’s Sales Miss Puts Spotlight on Margins
  + stars: | 2023-01-03 | by ( Stephen Wilmot | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
Tesla ’s disappointing deliveries won’t be the last headline about car sales this week. But investors will need to wait longer for firm answers to a more important question: How valuable are those sales? The electric-vehicle maker reported global deliveries of roughly 405,000 for the fourth quarter of 2022, bringing the annual total to roughly 1.3 million. While that was 40% higher than last year, it was below analyst expectations that had already been guided down, as well as below the company’s target of 50% growth in deliveries a year “over a multiyear horizon.” The stock was down about 6% on Tuesday.
The Airbus A380, the white elephant of the skies, could be getting a new lease on life. Among its merits: Unlike the Boeing 777X, it already exists. One of the best-performing stocks in London in 2022, having more than doubled, is a tiny company that owned a single asset: one of the Airbus A380s in the Emirates Airline fleet. Most of the gains came in July, when the Dubai-based carrier agreed to buy the plane for about £25 million, equivalent to about $30 million, once its lease expired. The deal, which closed the week before Christmas, massively improved the expected liquidation value of the investment company, called Doric Nimrod Air One (ticker: DNA).
Global Trade Is Shifting, Not Reversing
  + stars: | 2022-12-31 | by ( Stephen Wilmot | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
A Volkswagen assembly plant in Mexico, a country where an established manufacturing sector is anchored by the automotive industry. More likely is a continuing reshuffling of trade flows that creates new geopolitical winners—if they are savvy enough to take advantage. Global trade took some big knocks in 2022. The Biden administration rolled out huge subsidies for making semiconductors and electric-vehicle batteries in the U.S.—industries now dominated by Asia. At the company level, following unrest in Zhengzhou, China, Apple accelerated plans to diversify iPhone manufacturing away from the country.
Half-Price Tesla Stock Is Still No Bargain
  + stars: | 2022-12-12 | by ( Stephen Wilmot | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
After a horrible few months for Tesla shareholders, the question is just how far the comparison goes. Tesla shares have roughly halved this year, worse than most of the EV maker’s big peers in both the auto and tech industries. Much of the underperformance has come in the past three months, amid two broad concerns. One is that demand for its products is no longer racing ahead of increasing supply, particularly in China. The other relates to risks surrounding Chief Executive Elon Musk’s purchase of Twitter, which came together in October.
Tesla’s Latest EV Will Fill Up on Subsidies
  + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Stephen Wilmot | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
Do people buy Teslas because they are cool or because they are efficient? The company’s latest product is a Class-8 electric big rig. It will be competing in a very different market to the one for passenger cars that Tesla is used to. Truck buyers normally choose products following rigorous “total cost of ownership” calculations that combine the vehicle price with estimates of running expenses. There isn’t much room for branding and aesthetics in the low-margin logistics business.
Car Makers Face Bumpier Road in China
  + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Stephen Wilmot | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
For years China was the place to be for global car makers. This golden era is showing every sign of drawing to a close. The latest jump in Covid cases in the country, as well as the weekend protests against Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s zero-Covid policy, raise the risk of further supply disruptions and volatile vehicle sales. But the longer-term threat is competition: China’s electric-vehicle companies, particularly BYD, have sophisticated products that Chinese consumers want to buy. With EV sales growing faster than the wider market, local companies are gaining market share.
Iron Curtain Descends on Russia’s Top Internet Company
  + stars: | 2022-11-25 | by ( Stephen Wilmot | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
Yandex is often called Russia’s Google, but it also has elements of Uber, Spotify and Amazon. After nine months of trying to maintain an awkward neutrality, Russia’s most successful tech company wants to take sides in the Ukraine war—both of them. On Friday, Nasdaq-listed Yandex said it is reviewing options to restructure its ownership. It sketched out a split of the company into two parts, one acceptable in the U.S. and Europe and the other in Moscow. Although the move defies financial logic, Yandex in its current, globe-spanning form no longer works politically.
The chill in technology markets has spread to Prosus, the problematic Amsterdam-listed investment company that sometimes appears insulated from wider trends by its $94 billion stake in Chinese internet giant Tencent. Prosus said Wednesday that its half-year consolidated trading losses more than doubled to $449 million, as it continued to invest in its roughly $30 billion portfolio of e-commerce ventures, which are engaged in cash-hungry businesses such as food delivery and fintech. It also signaled that this would be the peak period for cash burn as it adapts to the rising cost of capital by cutting costs and shifting its operating focus toward profitability. The company thinks its e-commerce investments need another two years to break even.
Subsidies Supercharge GM’s EV Strategy
  + stars: | 2022-11-18 | by ( Stephen Wilmot | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
The transition to electric vehicles might not kill traditional auto makers after all—as long as they qualify for Washington’s flagship subsidy program. At an investor day Thursday, General Motors laid bare the economics of its technological shift. The bad news: GM estimated that its operating margins on EVs would still only be in the low to mid-single digits at the end of 2025. That calculation includes sales of regulatory credits for greenhouse-gas emissions, but excludes new tax credits that President Biden signed into law in August as part of the Inflation Reduction Act.
EV Startups Struggle to Catch Tesla’s Hype Train
  + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( Stephen Wilmot | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
Electric-vehicle startups are as far from the world of blue-chip stocks as investors can go: The more optimistic their valuations, the better their chances of growing into them. Wednesday marks a year since peak EV startup fever on the stock market when Rivian finished the day with a market value of $155 billion a few days after its initial public offering. A year of production and supply-chain challenges, its valuation is hovering a bit above $30 billion.
Norwegian startup Freyr Battery and energy conglomerate Koch Industries Inc. are accelerating their plan to build a multibillion-dollar battery plant that will be among the largest to tap incentives in President Biden’s climate, tax and spending plan, Freyr said. Koch’s chief executive long opposed environmental regulation and subsidies while funding groups that questioned climate change. The company and Freyr will likely invest more than $2.6 billion in two phases for the Georgia plant, which will supply batteries primarily for the U.S. power grid.
What Ford Might Learn From Renault
  + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( Stephen Wilmot | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
Renault ’s plan for an electric-vehicle spinoff tends to get more attention, but the French auto maker’s internal-combustion-engine carve-out might generate more shareholder value in the foreseeable future. It is a case study in corporate transition worth watching as Ford moves tentatively down a similar road. On Tuesday, Renault gave a full account of a radical restructuring it has had in the works for months. And it is creating a new ICE powertrain company in partnership with Chinese automotive investor Geely. Between these two extremes lie Renault’s core businesses of manufacturing and financing traditional vehicles in Europe and emerging markets, which it will wholly own within a new reporting structure.
Twitter’s Free Speech Problem Is Tesla’s, Too
  + stars: | 2022-11-07 | by ( Stephen Wilmot | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
Tesla already had a treacherous line to walk between China and the U.S. Chief Executive Elon Musk has made it worse by buying Twitter. The world’s largest EV market accounted for about 24% of Tesla’s revenues in the first three-quarters of this year, but the company’s bigger dependence is in production. The Shanghai plant is its largest manufacturing and export hub, with room to make more than 750,000 Model 3s or Model Ys—roughly two-fifths of its global capacity. Not coincidentally, the rise of this factory has mirrored the increase in Tesla’s margins over the past couple of years. The company also needs China’s battery materials: It gets lithium compounds from Chinese suppliers Ganfeng and Yahua, for example.
Twitter’s Free Speech Problem Is Tesla’s Too
  + stars: | 2022-11-07 | by ( Stephen Wilmot | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
Tesla already had a treacherous line to walk between China and the U.S. Chief Executive Elon Musk has made it worse by buying Twitter. The world’s largest EV market accounted for about 24% of Tesla’s revenues in the first three-quarters of this year, but the company’s bigger dependence is in production. The Shanghai plant is its largest manufacturing and export hub, with room to make more than 750,000 Model 3s or Model Ys—roughly two-fifths of its global capacity. Not coincidentally, the rise of this factory has mirrored the increase in Tesla’s margins over the past couple of years. The company also needs China’s battery materials: It gets lithium compounds from Chinese suppliers Ganfeng and Yahua, for example.
The superrich are throwing more money than ever at fancy cars. That doesn’t always make them super-profitable to manufacture. Ferrari reported “remarkable order intake” alongside third-quarter earnings on Wednesday. The luxury-car maker doesn’t disclose reservations, yet orders for its Purosangue model—its long-discussed answer to sport-utility vehicles, launched in September with a starting price of €390,000 in Italy, equivalent to $385,000—are running “way above our most promising expectations,” said Chief Executive Officer Benedetto Vigna on a call with analysts.
Porsche’s IPO Hasn’t Helped Volkswagen Much
  + stars: | 2022-10-28 | by ( Stephen Wilmot | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
Volkswagen risks learning the wrong lessons from taking Porsche public. In his first quarterly-results call with investors since taking the top job at VW, Chief Executive Officer Oliver Blume on Friday said the “big success” of last month’s Porsche initial public offering would be a “role model” for all of the group’s brands, which include the likes of Audi as well as VW itself. The company has no immediate plans for any more IPOs, but it will host a capital-markets day next spring to lay out “virtual equity stories” for its other badges. Mr. Blume hopes this will “lead to a complete equity story for the Volkswagen group.”
Ford Can’t Afford Other Bets Like Driverless Cars
  + stars: | 2022-10-27 | by ( Stephen Wilmot | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
Ford, which unveiled its new Mustang lineup last month, swung to a loss in the third quarter. Ford decision to reverse out of the driverless-taxi business shows a laudable focus on delivering tangible products—but also the company’s financial weakness relative to crosstown rival General Motors . Alongside third-quarter results published late Wednesday, Ford said it was shutting down Argo, the automated-driving business it controls jointly with Volkswagen . The U.S. auto maker will take a write-down of $2.7 billion and recruit several hundred Argo employees to its own driver-assistance and software teams, where it sees nearer-term prospects for developing services that might actually make money.
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