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While the human tragedy dominates the broader global news agenda, its hold on global markets has typically loosened pretty quickly. Inflation-adjusted real rates matter more when deciding whether to hold gold. The 2014 Gaza War lasted about six weeks and saw Israeli forces cross the border into Gaza. The 2008-09 Gaza War also echoes today's situation and saw Israeli forces cross into Palestinian territory. And over the course of the 2014 Gaza War Brent crude fell around $10 to $93 a barrel.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Jim Reid, Brent, Michael Every, Jamie McGeever, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Barclays, Deutsche, Benchmark, Swiss, Rabobank, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Rights ORLANDO , Florida, Israel, Lebanon, Gaza

WASHINGTON (AP) — In response to Venezuela’s government and a faction of its opposition formally agreeing to work together to reach a series of basic conditions for the next presidential election, the U.S. agreed Wednesday to temporarily suspend some sanctions on the country's oil, gas and gold sectors. Tuesday's agreement between President Nicolás Maduro’s administration and the Unitary Platform came just days before the opposition holds a primary to pick its candidate for the 2024 presidential election. The ban on trading in the primary Venezuelan bond market remains in place, Treasury says. We stand with the Venezuelan people and support Venezuelan democracy,” he said. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the U.S. and the international community “will closely follow implementation of the electoral roadmap, and the U.S. government will take action if commitments under the electoral roadmap and with respect to political prisoners are not met.”

Persons: Nicolás, Minerven, Brian E, Nelson, ”, Antony Blinken Organizations: WASHINGTON, U.S . Treasury, U.S Locations: U.S, Treasury's, United States, Venezuela, Venezuelan

☆ US easing Venezuela oil sanctions after election deal
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-18 | by ( Matt Spetalnick | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro speaks during a meeting with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi at the Miraflores Palace, in Caracas, Venezuela June 12, 2023. REUTERS/Leonardo Fernandez Viloria/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsWASHINGTON, Oct 18 (Reuters) - The Biden administration on Wednesday broadly eased sanctions on Venezuela's oil and gas sector in response to a 2024 election deal reached between the Venezuelan government and the country's opposition. Treasury is prepared to amend or revoke the authorizations at any time if representatives of President Nicolas Maduro fail to follow through on their commitments in the deal with the opposition, it added. The changes include the issuance of a six-month general license for the oil and gas sector in Venezuela and another general license authorizing dealings with Minerven – the Venezuelan state-owned gold mining company. The frontrunner in an opposition primary scheduled for Sunday, Maria Corina Machado, is barred from office for 15 years as of June.

Persons: Nicolas Maduro, Ebrahim Raisi, Leonardo Fernandez Viloria, Biden, Minerven, Maria Corina Machado, Donald Trump, Maduro, Matt Spetalnick, Marianna Parraga, Mayela Armas, Vivian Sequera, Josie Kao, Lisa Shumaker Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Venezuelan, U.S . Department of, Treasury, Treasury Department, U.S . State Department, Reuters, Washington, Biden, Thomson Locations: Miraflores, Caracas, Venezuela, Venezuelan, U.S

High funding needs and central banks removing support are increasing pricing uncertainty for investors, Sophia Drossos, hedge fund Point72 Asset Management's chief economist, said. Spending plans lacking credibility were seen as most likely to spark market turmoil. I suspect not by default, but when markets start reflecting their worries in Treasury prices, by a political crisis and a potentially ugly adjustment," the former IMF chief economist said. Italy's 2.4 trillion-euro debt pile is the focus in Europe, where the IMF has said high debt leaves governments vulnerable to crisis. "We need more investment, not less," said King's College London professor Jonathan Portes, Britain's cabinet office chief economist during the financial crisis.

Persons: Andrew Kelly, Peter Praet, Praet, Sophia Drossos, Daniel Ivascyn, Claudio Borio, Olivier Blanchard, Ray Dalio, Janet Yellen's, Yellen, Jim Leaviss, Giancarlo Giorgetti, Daleep Singh, Joe Biden, Britain's, Yellen's, Jonathan Portes, Clare Lombardelli, Moritz Kraemer, Yoruk Bahceli, Maria Martinez, Leigh Thomas, Giuseppe Fonte, Nell Mackenzie, Naomi Rovnick, William Schomberg, Jan Strupczewski, Dan Burns, Elisa Martinuzzi, Riddhima Talwani, Jayaram, Emelia Sithole Organizations: Financial, of, REUTERS, Institute of International Finance, Reuters, European Central Bank, ECB, Bank for International, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Associates, U.S . Treasury, Wall, Economy, Britain's Treasury, Congressional, Britain's, Institution, Reuters Graphics ACT, King's College London, Labour Party, OECD, Graphics, Thomson Locations: of Manhattan , New York City, U.S, Italy, Britain, United States, Europe, Ukraine, Berlin, Paris, Rome, London, Brussels, Washington, Marrakech

High funding needs and central banks removing support are increasing pricing uncertainty for investors, Sophia Drossos, hedge fund Point72 Asset Management's chief economist, said. Spending plans lacking credibility were seen as most likely to spark market turmoil. I suspect not by default, but when markets start reflecting their worries in Treasury prices, by a political crisis and a potentially ugly adjustment," the former IMF chief economist said. "We need more investment, not less," said King's College London professor Jonathan Portes, Britain's cabinet office chief economist during the financial crisis. Not enough reforms are being implemented, OECD chief economist Clare Lombardelli warned.

[1/2] Shadow of the supporter is pictured during the election convention of Law and Justice (PiS) party, before Sunday's parliamentary elections, in Przysucha, Poland October 9, 2023. "It is the most important election we have this year in Europe," said Viktor Szabo, portfolio manager at asset manager abrdn, adding markets had not priced in scenarios such as a hung parliament or the possibility of an early election. Such a scenario would be a key positive for both the currency and Polish equities, said Anna Zadornova, an economist at UBS. "Ultimately there is a point where you need to yield to the economics and how things are going," said Kaan Nazli, a portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman. ($1 = 0.9461 euros)Reporting by Karin Strohecker and Marc Jones, editing by Alexander SmithOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Kacper, Viktor Szabo, Szabo, PiS, Daniel Wood, William Blair, Anna Zadornova, Banks, Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Adam Glapinski, Kaan Nazli, Neuberger Berman, Karin Strohecker, Marc Jones, Alexander Smith Organizations: Law, Justice, REUTERS, LONDON, abrdn, European Union, JPMorgan, Reuters Graphics EU, EU, liberal Civic Coalition, UBS, Poland's, Copley Fund, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Przysucha, Poland, Europe, loggerheads, Brussels, Romania, Hungary

Israeli assets and the shekel remain under pressure and oil and gold prices are marginally higher than last week. World Markets Impact From MidEast Attacks WanesBlackRock chart on its Geopolitical Risk IndicatorNOWHERE TO RUN TO... Last updated shortly before the weekend events in Israel, BlackRock's Geopolitical Risk Indicator - which attempts to capture market attention to political risks - had indeed crept up to six month highs. Releasing its World Economic Outlook on Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund warned that more volatile commodity prices were a possible reflection of both greater climate and geopolitical risk. And yet hand wringing about geopolitical risk in different corners of the globe can also deflect from rising political risks in core economies - not the least in the United States.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Vincent Mortier, Anna Rosenberg, Kristina Hooper reckons, Hooper, that's, It's, Amundi's Rosenberg, Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Gourinchas, Josie Kao Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, West Bank, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Treasury, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Israel, Gaza, Iran, United States, Saudi Arabia, Russia, China, Taiwan, Ukraine

☆ US credit downgrade means junk sovereign bonds now outweigh AAA debt for the first time, Fitch says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Fitch Rating's US downgrade in August has dramatically shifted the debt market's composition. With the US now rated AA+, the amount of outstanding AAA sovereign debt shrank 85% to about $5 trillion. Meanwhile, speculative-grade sovereign debt was little changed at about $6.1 trillion. Without $33 trillion of US debt, AAA debt shrank 85% to about $5 trillion. That narrowed the share of AAA debt to just 6% from over 40%.

Persons: Fitch, — Organizations: AAA, Service, AA, Fitch Locations: Germany, Switzerland, Sweden, Singapore, Moody's

☆ US stocks skid, oil surges on Middle East conflict
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-09 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

In particular, there was a chance oil supplies from Iran might be disrupted, they added. "Given the tightness already facing physical oil markets in Q4 2023, an immediate reduction in Iran's oil exports risks pushing Brent futures above $US100/bbl in the short term." Early Monday, markets seemed to think developments in the Middle East would lean against further Fed hikes, and perhaps hasten a policy easing next year. The news from the Middle East could sour the start of corporate earnings season with 12 S&P 500 companies reporting this week including JP Morgan, Citi, and Wells Fargo. "Near-trend economic growth and moderating inflation pressures will support modest sales growth and slim margin improvement," Goldman analysts aid in a note.

Persons: Androniki, Brent, Israel, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Wayne Cole, Shri Navaratnam, Sonali Paul Organizations: Nikkei, REUTERS, CBA, bbl, Nasdaq, Reserve, Citi, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, SYDNEY, Asia, South Korea, Iran, Gaza, Pacific, China, Wells

☆ U.S. stocks slip, oil surges on Middle East violence
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-08 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"The risk is higher oil prices, a slump in equities, and a surge in volatility that supports the dollar and yen, and undermine 'risk' currencies," said analysts at CBA in a note. "A response by Iran in the Straits of Hormuz is the wild-card for oil supply and currency reaction." Any sustained rally in oil prices would act as a tax on consumers and add to inflationary pressures, which weighed on equities as S&P 500 futures shed 0.8% and Nasdaq futures lost 0.7%. The news from the Middle East could also sour the start of corporate earnings season with 12 S&P 500 companies reporting this week including JP Morgan, Citi, and Wells Fargo. Early Monday, markets seemed to think developments in the Middle East would lean against further Fed hikes, and perhaps hasten a policy easing next year.

Persons: Androniki, Israel, Brent, JP Morgan, Wayne Cole, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: Nikkei, REUTERS, CBA, Nasdaq, Citi, Reserve, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, SYDNEY, Asia, Iran, Straits, Hormuz, Gaza, Wells Fargo, China

☆ US stocks slip, Treasuries rise on Middle East violence
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-08 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"The risk is higher oil prices, a slump in equities, and a surge in volatility that supports the dollar and yen, and undermine 'risk' currencies," said analysts at CBA in a note. In currency markets, the yen was the main gainer though moves were modest overall. The news from the Middle East could also sour the start of corporate earnings season with 12 S&P 500 companies reporting this week including JP Morgan, Citi, and Wells Fargo. Early Monday, markets seemed to think developments in the Middle East would lean against further Fed hikes, and perhaps hasten a policy easing next year. China also returns from holiday this week with a deluge of data including consumer and producer inflation, trade, credit and lending growth.

[1/2] A view shows the entrance of the venue for the upcoming meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, following last month's deadly earthquake, in Marrakech, Morocco October 1, 2023. Reuters GraphicsThe yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond this week pierced 5% for the first time since 2007. Long-term U.S. yields have climbed roughly 1 percentage point in the past three months compared with a single quarter-percentage-point Fed rate hike during that period. Keeping the world's largest economy out of recession provides steadier demand for other countries' exports, as well as more certainty as Fed rate hikes hit a stopping point. The fallout depends on "how much further, and how quickly, bond yields rise," they said.

Persons: Abdelhak, China's, Goldman Sachs, Gene Tannuzzo, Tannuzzo, Karen Dynan, it's, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: International Monetary Fund, World Bank, REUTERS, Rights, U.S ., Treasuries, Reuters, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Columbia Threadneedle, Harvard University, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Capital Economics, Valley Bank, Thomson Locations: Marrakech, Morocco, U.S, Washington, California

☆ Japan’s inertia leaves yen at the mercy of the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( Francesco Guerrera | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A man looks at an electric monitor displaying the Japanese yen exchange rate against the U.S. dollar and Nikkei share average outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan October 4, 2023. The debate, though, ignores the bigger issue: Surging U.S. bond yields and Japan’s ultra-low interest rates, though, will keep the yen under pressure. Until it tightens monetary policy, Japan will have to live with an exchange rate driven by Washington. Until Tokyo regains control of its monetary levers, it will have to live with a foreign exchange rate driven by U.S. whims. The greenback then fell back to as low as 147.30, sparking speculation that Japanese monetary officials had intervened to prop up the currency.

Persons: Issei Kato, Kazuo Ueda, Ueda, Antony Currie, Oliver Taslic Organizations: U.S ., Nikkei, REUTERS, Reuters, Bank of Japan, Reuters Graphics, Federal Reserve, Bank of, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Washington

☆ This bearish fund manager thinks the U.S. is headed for a debt crisis. Here's what he's buying
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The U.S. is headed for a major debt crisis due to its fiscal deficit being at the "worst structural point since World War II," according to value investor Matthew McLennan. Over the past two decades, the federal government had its smallest budget deficit of $0.16 trillion in 2007, just before the global financial crisis. The hedge Given his bearish view, McLennan prefers gold as an investment hedge. Stocks Beyond gold, McLennan said he sees value in stocks like Meta and Oracle , two of the top equity holdings in the Global Fund. McLennan said his fund has owned Oracle since it launched an AI-powered database five years ago.

Persons: Matthew McLennan . McLennan, McLennan, hasn't, it's, you've, Meta, OpenAI Organizations: Global Fund, Security, Treasury, Meta, Oracle, Nvidia, Microsoft Locations: U.S, United States

A calmer tone set in later on Wednesday, with bond yields retreating. In the U.S. Treasury market -- considered the bedrock of the global financial system -- 10-year yields have jumped as much as 20 basis points (bps) to 4.8% this week alone. Bond yields move inversely to prices, and many asset managers who had held bonds expecting prices to rally are now throwing in the towel. Australian and Canadian 10-year bond yields have surged over 20 bps each this week , , and British 30-year government bond yields hit a fresh 25-year high above 5% on Wednesday . , ,World stocks (.MIWD00000PUS) hit their lowest since April on Wednesday, and the cost of insuring exposure to a basket of European corporate junk bonds hit a five-month high, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Persons: Bond, Juan Valenzuela, Artemis, Kevin McCarthy, Jason Lee, Michael Metcalfe, Vikram Aggarwal, that's, Everybody's, you've, Richard McGuire, McGuire, Dhara Ranasinghe, Naomi Rovnick, Alun John, Yoruk Bahceli, Chiara Elisei, Marc Jones, Andy Bruce, Kim Coghill, Toby Chopra Organizations: bund, U.S . Treasury, Federal Reserve, Reuters, ADP, U.S . House, Congress, Hong, REUTERS, Street Global Markets, P Global Market Intelligence, Jupiter, New York Fed, Rabobank, Thomson Locations: Treasuries, British, U.S, Hong Kong, London

In the U.S. Treasury market -- considered the bedrock of the global financial system -- 10-year yields have jumped 20 basis points (bps) to 4.8% this week alone. Bond yields move inversely to prices, and asset managers who had held bonds expecting prices to rally are now throwing in the towel. Australian and Canadian 10-year bond yields have surged over 20 bps each this week , , and British 30-year government bond yields hit a fresh 25-year high above 5% on Wednesday . In a further sign of investor nervousness, the closely-watched MOVE bond volatility index is at a four-month high. (.MOVE)Rise in global yields beyond 10yr average levels Rise in global yields beyond 10yr average levelsRIPPLESGovernment borrowing costs influence everything from mortgage rates for homeowners to loan rates for companies.

Persons: Jason Lee, Bond, Juan Valenzuela, Artemis, Vikram Aggarwal, that's, Everybody's, you've, Richard McGuire, Dhara Ranasinghe, Naomi Rovnick, Alun John, Yoruk Bahceli Chiara Elisei, Andy Bruce, Kim Coghill, Toby Chopra Organizations: Hong, REUTERS, U.S . Treasury, Federal Reserve, Reuters, P Global Market Intelligence, Jupiter, New York Fed, Rabobank, Thomson Locations: Hong Kong, Treasuries, British

Yet increasingly, euro area specific factors, particularly exposure to higher oil prices, risk further weakness in an already stagnating economy, and the single currency. The euro is especially vulnerable to rising oil prices, with net imports accounting for over 90% of oil products available in the European Union. "High oil prices are weighing on the euro area's terms of trade, and if oil prices move above $100 per barrel to $110 per barrel we think it will be difficult for the euro to avoid parity," said Nomura's G10 FX strategist Jordan Rochester. But it also lifts price pressures through higher import costs, compounding the impact from higher oil prices. "Definitely the euro zone is not in a good place right now," said Moec, adding that he did not rule out a euro move to parity.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Jordan, Nomura, Morgan Stanley, Jens Eisenschmidt, Francesco Pesole, Athanasios, Gilles Moec, Dhara Ranasinghe, Alun John, Yoruk, Christina Fincher Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, European Union, OPEC, Barclays, European Central Bank, ECB, ING, Germany, Bank of America, AXA Investment, Thomson Locations: Jordan Rochester, United States, ITALY, Italy, U.S, London, Amsterdam

☆ Instant View: World's biggest bond markets hit by wave of selling, then bounce
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Jordanian Dinar, Yuan, Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Pound and Riyals banknotes are seen in this picture illustration taken June 13, 2017. JP Morgan analyst Sin Beng Ong in a note on the pressure it was putting on emerging Asia markets. RICHARD MCGUIRE, HEAD OF RATES STRATEGY, RABOBANK, LONDON:“The markets reflect effectively flying blind because the models don't work, everybody's been calling for a recession that just simply refuses to arrive. "Our view is that the U.S. economy slows into next year... so from that perspective, at some point, we expect it (bond market selloff) to normalise." (Compiled by the Global Finance & Markets Breaking News team)Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Yuan, Dado Ruvic, BENG ONG, JP Morgan, Sin Beng Ong, RICHARD MCGUIRE, everybody's, you've, VIKRAM AGGARWAL, ” JUAN VALENZUELA, ARTEMIS, ”, ” NICK NELSON Organizations: REUTERS, OF, JPMORGAN, RABOBANK, LONDON, Federal Reserve, Global Finance, Markets, Thomson Locations: Treasuries, ASIA, SINGAPORE, Asia, U.S

Why are global bond yields rising? With inflation excluding food and energy prices elevated and the U.S. economy resilient, central banks are pushing back against rate cut bets. Many investors were also betting bond yields would drop, so are extra sensitive to moves in the opposite direction, analysts say. That is no surprise, and analysts do not rule out a rise in 10-year Treasury yields to 5%, from 4.7% now . Bond yields determine governments' funding costs, so the longer they stay high, the more they feed into the interest costs countries pay.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, August's, Goldman Sachs, Mahmood Pradhan, Treasuries, Andrea Kiguel, Yoruk, Dhara Ranasinghe, Karin Strohecker, Marc Jones, Amanda Cooper, Ed Osmond Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, U.S . Treasury, August's Fitch, Reuters, Treasury, Deutsche Bank, Amundi Investment, U.S, JPMorgan, Barclays, Yoruk Bahceli, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Germany, Japan, Italy, Europe, Americas, Amsterdam, London

The ramifications for global markets are significant, with Washington and Beijing's determination to loosen dependence on each other fraying long-established supply chains. Many central banks target 2% inflation; market gauges of traders' long-term U.S. and European inflation expectations are running higher , . Anna Rosenberg, head of geopolitics at the Amundi Investment Institute, said Sino-U.S. tensions, provide a "new lens" through which to analyse emerging markets' growth prospects. But the performance of big U.S. tech stocks and global share indices are vulnerable to signs of Chinese retaliation. With China underperforming global stocks, investors are split on how to approach this market.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Joe Biden, Goldman Sachs, Wouter Sturkenboom, Laura Alfaro, Anna Rosenberg, Christopher Rossbach, J, Stern, Carole Madjo, Wendy Liu, Baird, Patrick Spencer, Naomi Rovnick, Kripa Jayaram, Riddhima, Vineet, Sumanta Sen, Pasit, Louise Heavens Organizations: REUTERS, EMEA, APAC, Northern Trust, Reuters, Research, Harvard Business, Amundi Investment Institute, INDIA RUSH, Barclays reckons, EU, Apple, China, Barclays, JPMorgan, Thomson Locations: West, China, Washington, Western, Germany, Northern, Europe, FRIENDSHORING Washington, Vietnam, Mexico, Mongolia, Philippines, Sino, U.S, India, Beijing, COVID, CHINA

☆ Morning Bid: Markets catch breath after bruising recoil
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

China's markets will also be disrupted by Golden Week holidays next week. Ten-year Treasury yields hit another 16-year high at 4.56% on Tuesday before dialling back a bit on Wednesday, with 10-year real yields hitting 14-year peaks at 2.24%. Risk spreads in junk bond and overseas sovereign bond markets are also creeping higher again, with exchange-traded U.S. junk bond funds hitting their lowest since May and Italy's government bond yield premium over Germany widening too. Worrying for many investors this week has been how bond yields have climbed despite weaker economic signals and how stock and bond losses are correlating again. World markets were more mixed, with China's bourses managing some gains ahead of the big holiday week.

Persons: Mike Dolan, Goldman Sachs, Jerome Powell's, Neel Kashkari, shakeout, Shorter, China's bourses, Michelle Bowman, Jane Merriman Organizations: Federal Reserve, Minneapolis Fed, Golden, Nasdaq, Big Tech, U.S . Federal Trade Commission, Costco, China Evergrande, HK, United, Treasury, Micron, Paychex Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Washington, Germany, United States

The European Central Bank last week lifted rates to a record 4% and upgraded its inflation forecast for 2024, but the euro fell and has lost almost 2% against the dollar this month. Overall, Europe's central banks "would like to portray this idea of higher for longer (rates)," said Ed Hutchings, head of rates at Aviva Investors. The currency, which the central bank labeled "unjustifiably weak," barely caught a break and remains near a record low against the euro . He expected one the of big European central banks to be the first to cut rates. European central banks were "in a bind," Fiotakis added, as higher oil prices also threatened to push inflation higher.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Sterling, Kit Juckes, BoE, SocGen's Juckes, Ed Hutchings, Nathan Thooft, Bjoern, Fiotakis, Orla Garvey, Naomi Rovnick, Christina Fincher Organizations: REUTERS, Sterling, LONDON, Bank of, Swiss, greenback, Societe Generale, European Central Bank, ECB, U.S . Federal Reserve, Fed, Aviva Investors, Investment Management, Reuters, DWS Group, Nomura, ING, Barclays, Federated, Thomson Locations: Swiss, Bank of England, Switzerland, Sweden, Europe, U.S, Western Europe, United States, Britain, Swedish, Japan, European

Yet in Europe, sterling came under pressure after data showed Britain's high inflation rate fell unexpectedly in August, prompting speculation that the Bank of England could pause its historic run of interest rate hikes as soon as Thursday. Two-year Treasury yields were down 3.5 basis points in London trade at 5.07%, having risen sharply on Tuesday, when five- and 10-year Treasury yields reached 16-year highs. World stock markets were edging higher ahead of the Fed rate decision. UK gilt yields fell sharply as investors slashed bets for a rate hike on Thursday, with two-year yields last down over 14 bps at 4.85% . "Combined with their recent dovish commentary, we now expect the MPC to keep Bank Rate unchanged tomorrow and lower our forecast for the terminal policy rate to 5.25%," Stehn and co. added.

Persons: DAX, Kai Pfaffenbach, Jerome Powell, Lee Hardman, Sterling underperformed, Goldman Sachs, Sven Jari Stehn, Stehn, Masato Kanda, Eugene Low, Dhara Ranasinghe, Samuel Indyk, Tom Westbrook, Toby Chopra, Chizu Organizations: REUTERS, Sterling, U.S, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Brent, Federal, Fed, Japan's Nikkei, MPC, Monetary, Bank of, New Zealand, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Europe, Saudi Arabia, Russia, U.S, London, Sweden, Switzerland, Norway, Britain, Japan, Asia, Pacific, Hong Kong, China, Singapore

Current funding for most U.S. government programs except for the military and Social Security payments expires on Sept. 30. The government would continue to make payments on Treasury bonds and other forms of debt during a shutdown. A government shutdown would prevent the collection and release of key market data including gross domestic product, unemployment figures and inflation data, clouding the ability of central bankers to gauge the strength of the economy, Cantrill said. "The Fed – who has emphasized how data-dependent it currently is – would be flying blind" into the central bank's policy meeting in November, she said. Economists at Capital Economists, meanwhile, said in a note on Monday that the risk of a shutdown is rising but said they expect a quick resolution.

Persons: Kevin Wurm, PIMCO, Libby Cantrill, Goldman Sachs, Kevin McCarthy, Cantrill, There's, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Capitol, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Republicans, Social, Goldman, . House, Capital Economists, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, shutdowns, New York, London

☆ Morning Bid: Messy market mood as oil irks
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Model of Oil barrels are seen in front of rising stock graph in this illustration, July 24, 2022. The crude spur is more supply than demand related and most fingers point to the latest output cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia. Headline inflation rates are already backing up as a result of the energy price rebound and U.S. gas pump prices rose last week to $3.88 per gallon - the highest since October 2022. Stock markets around the world were mixed to positive and U.S. futures were up a fraction ahead of Wall St's open. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Mike Dolan, Claudio Borio, Mehmet Simsek, Goldman Sachs, Christina Fincher Organizations: REUTERS, U.S . Energy, Administration, Federal Reserve, Bank for International, U.S, Economic, American Chamber of Commerce, Stock, Kingfisher, . Federal Reserve, Treasury, Turkey's, Goldman, Reuters Graphics, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Treasuries, China, Shanghai, Europe, Canada, New York

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