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☆ Goldman lowers recession odds to just 15%
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The bank's economists over the weekend lowered their recession probability to just 15%, which chief economist Jan Hatzius classified as the "unconditional long-term average." September's smashing nonfarm payrolls surge of 254,000 and a downward move in the unemployment rate served as a catalyst for the firm to nearly abandon the chance of a contraction. Prior to the report, traders had been betting that the Fed might repeat its 50 basis point — half percentage point — interest rate cut from September before the end of the year. But expectations have swung now, and Goldman concurs with market pricing that the "next few meetings" will see 25 basis point moves. That's about 1.5 percentage points lower than the current level and 2 full percentage points below the pre-September cut.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Hatzius, Goldman, Lisa Shallett, Morgan Stanley, Shallett Organizations: Labor Department, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S

☆ The Fed is done cutting rates this year as the 'phantom recession' is finally dead, market vet says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The Fed is done cutting interest rates for the rest of the year, according to Ed Yardeni. Fears of a recession have been almost completely eliminated, the market vet said in a note. The no-show Fed-triggered recession will remain a no-show, especially now that the Fed has started to lower the FFR even though it isn't warranted by the performance of the economy," Yardeni wrote. I think it broadens out from the Magnificent Seven to the S&P 493," Yardeni added, speaking to Bloomberg on Monday. "We're going to have another quarter where I think earnings will go to a record-high in the third quarter."

Persons: Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, —, landers, they're Organizations: Service, Reserve, Yardeni, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Services, Institution of Supply Management, Atlanta Fed, Fed, Bloomberg, Investor

☆ The job market is in the 'Twilight Zone,' top economist Claudia Sahm says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The US job market is in a strange quandary, according to Claudia Sahm. The September jobs report was huge, but Sahm said the labor market is still cooling. AdvertisementThe job market is in a weird spot, even after Friday's stunningly strong nonfarm payroll report, Claudia Sahm says. The former Federal Reserve economist and the creator of a highly watched recession indicator pointed to signs that the labor market is cooling, despite September's blowout jobs report. Other forecasters have said the job market remains in uncertain territory, though labor conditions are generally on strong footing.

Persons: Claudia Sahm, Sahm, —, they're Organizations: Employers, Service, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Challenger, Atlanta Fed

See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates would impact your monthly payments. 30-Year Mortgage Rates TodayAverage 30-year mortgage rates are hovering near 6% today, according to Zillow data. 15-Year Mortgage Rates TodayAverage 15-year mortgage rates remain in the low 5% range, according to Zillow data. Average Refinance Mortgage Rates TodayRefinance rates have inched up after dropping in September. 5-Year Mortgage Rate TrendsHere's how 30-year and 15-year mortgage rates have trended over the last five years, according to Freddie Mac data.

Persons: they're, they've, you'll, Freddie Mac, it's, They'll Organizations: of Labor Statistics, Federal, Zillow, Fed Locations: U.S, Chevron

☆ Insider Today: Consultants hit the exits
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-06 | by ( Matt Turner | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

This post originally appeared in the Insider Today newsletter. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . This week's dispatchHot jobs reportgradyreese/Getty, Tyler Le/BIThe US economy added way more jobs in September than expected. AdvertisementThe jobs report on Friday showed 254,000 jobs added, way ahead of the 147,000 expected, while unemployment dropped to 4.1%. Here's what it all means:Rates: The strong job numbers likely mean a longer wait for lower rates.

Persons: —, Tyler Le, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Harris, Alyssa Powell, Marc Rowan, Apollo, Rowan, Natalie Ammari, Scooping, Van Cleef, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Business, Service, UC Berkeley, Fed, Dow, Deloitte, Accenture, Reuters, Apollo Management, Apollo, JPMorgan Locations: Zegna, Bridgewater

Since the Fed will likely be able to take a slower approach to lowering rates, mortgage rates are unlikely to go down further this year. Current 30-Year Mortgage RatesAverage 30-year mortgage rates are around 6%, according to Zillow data. In September, 30-year refinance rates averaged 5.89%, while 15-year refinance rates were around 5.19%. Mortgage rates are determined by a variety of different factors, including larger economic trends, Federal Reserve policy, your state's current mortgage rates, the type of loan you're getting, and your personal financial profile. Now that the Fed has cut rates, mortgage rates may not drop much in October.

Persons: they're, you'll, Freddie Mac, it's, they've Organizations: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal, Zillow, Fed Locations: U.S, Chevron

☆ Inflation, earnings and AI are the three market drivers we're watching this week
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-06 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Friday's rally on a strong jobs report gained momentum into the close and pushed the stock market into the green for the week. Inflation data: The September consumer price index (CPI) report is out Thursday. The September producer price index (PPI) is out Friday. Jim said last week that investors who don't own AMD shares should buy some ahead of CEO Lisa Su's presentation. ET: Consumer price index 12 p.m.

Persons: we'll, Jim Cramer, Friday's, Matthew Graham, Israel, Joe Biden, Wells, Jim, we're, We're, Morgan Stanley, Lisa Su's, Su, Jim Cramer's, Michael M Organizations: Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, Mortgage News, Mortgage News Daily, CNBC, Devices, PPI, Bank, Nvidia, SOXX Semiconductor, PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, DAL, JPMorgan, Jim Cramer's Charitable, Traders, New York Stock Exchange, Santiago, Getty Locations: U.S, Iran, Israel, Wells Fargo, BlackRock, New York City

☆ 4 market experts share 10 places to invest your money after September's jobs data blew expectations out of the water
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-05 | by ( Christine Ji | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Below, four market experts share how investors should allocate their money going forward. The US job market blew past economists' predictions, with total nonfarm payrolls increasing by 254,000 last month — over 100,000 more jobs than expected. Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer, Independent Advisor AllianceThe job market is showing signs of strengthening with the September data. With that being said, the current environment presents many opportunities to invest in equities, according to Zaccarelli. "Recession fears are elevated, and we think those are underpriced, underappreciated parts of the market," Zaccarelli said.

Persons: —, we've, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, Sonders, there'll, it's, Jeffrey Roach, Roach, Lisa Shalett, Morgan, Shalett, Chris Zaccarelli, Zaccarelli Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Investors, Fed, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, Independent

☆ 'Inflation is not dead': Consumer prices are still in focus for investors despite the Fed's labor-market pivot
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-05 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The upcoming inflation report will help determine the Fed's next move. Friday's surprisingly strong jobs data has slashed bets of a half-point rate cut. AdvertisementBut with September's jobs report crushing expectations, concerns may have been premature. AdvertisementHow inflation data could compound these forecasts will be known on Thursday, when the CPI report comes out. Still, with inflation still slightly above the central bank's 2% target , some analysts are cautioning investors not to forget about price pressures.

Persons: Friday's, —, it's, they're, Mohamed El, Erian, Brian Rose, Seema Shah Organizations: UBS, Service, US, Bloomberg, CPI, Fed, Bank of America, Barclays

☆ Jim Cramer tells investors to put this chipmaker and this bank on their buy lists
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Matthew J. Belvedere | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer holds a "Morning Meeting" livestream at 10:20 a.m. Jim Cramer calls September's nonfarm payroll growth a "no landing" number, meaning we don't have to waste energy debating a hard economic landing versus a soft landing. AMD stock is starting to reflect that, he added, but it hasn't had nearly the gains of rival Club stock Nvidia this year. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER .

Persons: Jim Cramer, September's, Jim, Lisa Su, hasn't, Morgan Stanley, Wells, It's, Jim Cramer's Organizations: CNBC, Dow, Nasdaq, Club, AMD, Nvidia, Bank, Fed Locations: U.S, Israel, San Francisco, Wells Fargo

☆ Why one firm is skeptical about the blockbuster September jobs report — and is still expecting another jumbo rate cut
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The Fed will still deliver jumbo rate cuts to stabilize the weakening job market, the firm predicted. AdvertisementThough most on Wall Street are cheering September's blowout labor report, not everyone is so sure the labor market is booming. Advertisement"The extremely low response rate to the payroll survey waves a red flag," the firm wrote on Friday. The firm scrutinized last month's payroll strength against the fact that other labor market indicators have shown a pullback in hiring. Meanwhile, this week's JOLTS data prompted Deutsche Bank to question how tight the labor market really is.

Persons: —, Larry Summers Organizations: Macroeconomics, Service, Deutsche Bank, of Labor Statistics, Conference, Federal, Bank of America Locations: joblessness, tanked

☆ Stock market next week: Investors wonder what's to come after tumultuous October start
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Stocks struggled this week as rising tensions in the Middle East set off the strongest rally in oil prices since March 2023. "The stock market has been living up to October's reputation of increased volatility," said Glen Smith, chief investment officer at GDS Wealth Management. Inflation report, Fed minutes on deck In the week ahead, investors will keep an eye on a couple of potential catalysts. On Wednesday, investors will parse minutes from September's central bank gathering for insights into the future path of monetary policy. "I would say the inflation report is probably less important than it used to be," Dickson said.

Persons: Stocks, Glen Smith, Said, Mike Dickson, Chris Zaccarelli, Zaccarelli, Investment's Dickson, It's, Dickson, Wells, John Williams, JPMorgan Chase Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, GDS Wealth Management, Federal, Horizon Investments, CNBC Pro, Independent, Alliance, PepsiCo, Delta, JPMorgan Chase, PepsiCO, New York Fed, PPI, University of Michigan, BlackRock, Bank of NY Mellon, JPMorgan Locations: White, Wells Fargo, Fastenal, Wells

☆ Fed close to pulling off the elusive economic soft landing in 2024 after great September jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

"It also increases the possibility of a no-landing as well, meaning even stronger economic data for 2025 than we currently expect." watch nowBeyond that, it virtually eliminated any chance that the Federal Reserve would be repeating its half percentage point interest rate cut from September anytime soon. But broadly speaking, the news was very good and raised questions over just how aggressive the Fed will need to be. Jones said the Fed will have a dilemma on its hand as it figures out the proper policy response. "In an election year, passions run high and every economic report or event can garner intense reaction.

Persons: Anna Rose Layden, We've, Beth Ann Bovino, Friday's nonfarm, Dow Jones, Bovino, David Royal, Kathy Jones, Charles Schwab, Jones, they're, Elizabeth Renter Organizations: Outfitters, Getty, Federal Reserve, U.S . Bank, Fed, Fed Bank of America, Wall, U.S Locations: Tysons , Virginia, U.S

☆ Jim Cramer's week ahead: CPI data and earnings from Delta, Domino's and major banks
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Julie Coleman | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

CNBC's Jim Cramer reviewed next week's top market-moving action, highlighting new consumer price index data and a slew of earnings reports as the season begins, including ones from Delta , Domino's and several major banks. The labor department will release September's CPI report on Thursday, and Cramer said investors who want a rate cut are hoping for a cool number. Friday brings the producer price index report, and like the CPI, this data will be a metric for the Fed's next decision, Cramer said. Big ticket financial earnings will also come out that day, including Wells Fargo , JPMorgan and Blackrock . He said banks represent the least expensive group on the market, and investors should use any weakness to buy them.

Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, Cramer, he's, Delta, Tesla Organizations: Wall, PepsiCo, General Motors, Federal, Big Tech, AMD, HP Enterprise, Big, JPMorgan, Blackrock Locations: Delta, Domino's, Wells Fargo

☆ The September jobs report dashed hopes for another jumbo rate cut next month
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

AdvertisementThe September jobs report offered good news all around — except to those expecting a second straight jumbo 50-basis-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve next month. In addition, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1%, bucking estimates that it would stay unchanged at 4.2%. Analysts agree that September's blowout job numbers make an aggressive interest rate cut harder to justify. Advertisement"Did the Fed even need to cut rates in September, let alone cut by 50 basis points?" Late last month, the bank predicted that investors would take on more risk if the unemployment rate hit 4.1% and if payrolls reached above 150,000.

Persons: —, Seema Shah, Glen Smith, Morgan Stanley, payrolls, Smith Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Asset Management, GDS Wealth Management, Federal

☆ European markets poised for higher open; U.S. jobs report in view
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Karen Gilchrist | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

A TV presenter gets ready for the daily reporting from the floor of the German share price index DAX at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, November 15, 2023. LONDON — European stocks were poised for a higher open Friday as traders continue to monitor the escalating conflict in the Middle East and look ahead to the latest U.S. jobs report. The FTSE 100 was seen opening up 7 points at 8,281, Germany's DAX 38 points higher at 19,029, France's CAC up 23 points at 7,489 and Italy's FTSE MIB 100 points higher at 32,171, according to IG data. It comes after the Stoxx 600 shed 1% Thursday as geopolitical tensions have contributed to a shaky start to October. Investors are looking ahead Friday to the September's payrolls report, with U.S. futures little changed overnight.

Persons: DAX, Germany's DAX Organizations: LONDON, France's CAC, Investors Locations: Frankfurt, Germany

☆ Here's everything to expect when the September jobs report is released Friday
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

"The jobs market is slowing down and becoming less tight," said Katie Nixon, chief investment officer at Northern Trust Wealth Management. Then there are the monthly revisions that have been dramatic at times, causing the Labor Department to overcount hiring by more than 800,000 for the 12-month period through March 2024, adding uncertainty to jobs market analysis. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the report at 8:30 a.m. Looking for cluesStill, markets will in fact be watching the report closely. At the same meeting where they approved the reduction, policymakers indicated another half percentage point, or 50 basis points, in cuts before the end of 2024 and another full percentage point in 2025.

Persons: Angus Mordant, Nonfarm, Dow Jones, Katie Nixon, We've, there's, David Kelly, Helene —, JPMorgan's Kelly, Kelly Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, Federal Reserve, Trust Wealth Management, Labor Department, Asset Management, Labor Statistics Locations: Albany, Latham , New York

☆ Asia-Pacific markets trade mixed as investors weigh China stimulus, oil gains
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | In Ying-Shan-Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

The Tokyo Tower, left, and commercial and residential buildings in Minato district of Tokyo, Japan, on Saturday, Oct. 1, 2022. Photographer: Akio Kon/Bloomberg via Getty ImagesSINGAPORE — Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed on Friday following losses on Wall Street, with concerns over Middle East tensions keeping investors on edge in the run up to September's U.S. payrolls report. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index futures were at 22,091, lower than the HSI's last close of 22,113.51. Markets in mainland China will reopen on Oct. 8. Chinese stocks had been on a tear after authorities announced a slew of support measures last week.

Persons: Akio Kon, Australia's Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty Images, Nikkei Locations: Tokyo, Minato district, Japan, Getty Images SINGAPORE, Asia, Pacific, China

☆ Stock futures are little changed as Wall Street awaits September jobs report: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

U.S. stock futures were flat on Thursday night as traders looked ahead to the widely anticipated release of September's jobs report on Friday morning. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures were also unchanged. These moves came after the major averages ended Thursday's trading session with losses. U.S. oil futures climbed about 5% Thursday, weighing on the major averages. Indeed, all three major averages are already on pace for weekly losses.

Persons: Dow Jones, Barbara Doran, I'd, it's, Doran Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, International Longshoremen's Association, United States Maritime Alliance, Dow, BD8 Capital Partners Locations: New York City . U.S, U.S, East, Iran, Israel

☆ Stock futures inch higher as traders await jobs report due later this week: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-02 | by ( Pia Singh | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stock futures ticked higher Wednesday night as investors look ahead to September's payrolls report due later this week. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 40 points, or less than 0.1%. S&P 500 futures advanced 0.1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures climbed about 0.2%. October trading is off to a rough start this month as escalating tensions in the Middle East dampen investors' enthusiasm. "Embrace October's volatility, as there is still plenty of fuel left in this bull market," she added.

Persons: September's, Levi Strauss, Stocks, —, Mary Ann Bartels Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dockers, Investors, ADP, Federal Reserve, Fed Locations: Iran, Israel, Lebanon

☆ Stocks face a 10% drop with key economic data mired in recession territory, investment chief says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-02 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Key data prints are hovering in recession territory, Megan Horneman said. "I think investors got a little ahead of themselves," she said. This over-enthusiasm could cost the market heavily, pushing stocks toward a 7% to 10% drop, the chief investment officer said. "I think investors got a little ahead of themselves as far as the what strength there is in the economy," she told Yahoo Finance. Still, these data prints have taken a backseat to labor data, which holds the spotlight on Wall Street.

Persons: Megan Horneman, —, Tim Fiore, Morgan Stanley, Horneman Organizations: Yahoo Finance, Service, Conference Board, September's, PMI, US Federal Reserve

Mortgage rates are starting the month a little higher, with 30-year rates hovering around 5.90%, according to Zillow data. But if conditions hold up, mortgage rates will likely remain near their current levels through the end of 2024. 5-Year Mortgage Rate TrendsHere's how 30-year and 15-year mortgage rates have trended over the last five years, according to Freddie Mac data. Mortgage rates are determined by a variety of different factors, including larger economic trends, Federal Reserve policy, your state's current mortgage rates, the type of loan you're getting, and your personal financial profile. This means your entire monthly mortgage payment, including taxes and insurance, shouldn't exceed 28% of your pre-tax monthly income.

Persons: they've, Jerome Powell, you'll, They've, Freddie Mac, it's, Fannie Mae Organizations: Federal, Today's, Zillow, ARM, Federal Housing Administration, Department of Veterans Affairs, Fed, Mortgage, Association Locations: Nashville, Chevron

☆ What made this Russian fighter jet's shockingly aggressive maneuvers near a US F-16 so dangerous
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-02 | by ( Chris Panella | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

A Russian Su-35 made risky, dangerous moves near a US F-16 late last month. “On Sept 23, 2024, NORAD aircraft flew a safe and disciplined intercept of Russian Military Aircraft in the Alaska ADIZ. Rules on aircraft behavior in international airspaces, create "an understood behavior so that we mitigate the risk" of problems. AdvertisementWhat the Su-35 pilot did was nothing of the sort. Russian military aircraft have also been involved in risky incidents, including a string of unprofessional intercepts of US Navy P-8As by Su-35s a few years ago and multiple incidents in Syria, among other places.

Persons: —, ” –, Gregory Guillot pic.twitter.com, Gregory Guillot, Vincent Aiello, Mike Torrealday, I've, — Chris Hadfield, It's, Su, could've Organizations: NORAD, Service, North American Aerospace Defense Command, Russian Military Aircraft, American Aerospace Defense Command, US Northern Command, US Navy, US Air Force, US Defense Department, US, Pentagon Locations: Russian, Alaska, Russia, South China, American, Syria, Ukraine, Hainan, China

Experts believe mortgage rates will hold steady for the rest of the year in the low 6% range. After spending the first half of the year at record highs, mortgage rates have finally been trending down for several months now. According to Freddie Mac, 30-year mortgage rates are now just above 6%. But Fed officials have indicated that we may only get 50 basis points worth of cuts by December. What would need to happen for mortgage rates to drop further?

Persons: —, Freddie Mac, Danielle Hale, Realtor.com, Hale, Scott Haymore, Haymore, Will, Dan Burnett, Phil Crescenzo, We're, that's, Crescenzo, there's, refinance Organizations: Service, Federal, Traders, TD Bank, Hometap, Nation One Mortgage Corporation

☆ Bitcoin tumbles back to the $60,000 level as tensions in the Middle East heighten
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-01 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Around 4:45 p.m. Eastern time, bitcoin slid to as low as $60,175. Crypto exchange Coinbase dropped about 1% and bitcoin proxy MicroStrategy lost 2%, after closing lower by 7.4% and 3.5%, respectively. Stock Chart Icon Stock chart icon Crypto assets tumble to start October and the fourth quarterRising tensions in the Middle East dampened investors' risk appetite as the new trading month and quarter began. "Surging unrest across the Middle East has propelled oil prices upward and reinforced the dollar's strength, casting a shadow over bitcoin and other speculative investments," said Chris Kline, chief operating officer and co-founder of Bitcoin IRA. "Meanwhile, a global monetary tug-of-war is unfolding as various central banks slash interest rates and expand their money supplies."

Persons: Jonathan Raa, Cryptocurrencies, bitcoin, Coinbase, MicroStrategy, Hassan Nasrallah, Chris Kline Organizations: Nurphoto, Getty, bitcoin, Metrics, International Longshoremen's Association, Gulf Coasts Locations: Iran, Israel, Iranian, Lebanon

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