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No matter who wins the White House and control of Congress this autumn, one aspect of trade policy is likely to endure: Washington’s tough-on-China protectionist stance. But several trade experts predict that the America-first model of slapping tariffs on adversaries — as President Biden did this week — will backfire. Critics of tariffs and export restrictions say they not only will potentially exacerbate inflation and drag down economic growth, but are also likely to fail for a simpler reason: Chinese companies may see their businesses slowed down by the restrictions, but have found ways to beat them. As Alex Durante, an economist at the Tax Foundation, a nonpartisan think tank that works with policymakers in the United States and Europe, bluntly put it: “They don’t work.”Huawei has shown that companies can find workarounds. Last year, the Chinese telecom giant unveiled the Mate 60, a smartphone powered by a high-end semiconductor.

Persons: —, Biden, Alex Durante, ” Organizations: White, Tax Foundation, ” Huawei Locations: China, America, United States, Europe, Washington

Regulatory warsThe Supreme Court lifted the existential threat hanging over the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, rejecting a challenge to the agency’s funding. The decision could have huge consequences for a raft of conservative-led lawsuits involving administrative authority — but business groups and Republicans are vowing to fight on. A recap: Payday lenders had sued the C.F.P.B. over a rule that would limit the number of times they could withdraw money from a customer’s account for repayment. The companies and conservative groups argued that the practice wasn’t harmful, and said the way the regulator is funded — via annual allocations from the Fed’s profits rather than from Congress — was unconstitutional.

Persons: Congress — Organizations: Consumer Financial Protection, Congress

☆ Some A.I. Companies Face a New Accusation: ‘Open Washing’
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-17 | by ( Sarah Kessler | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The Biden administration is investigating the risks and benefits of open source models. Proponents of open source A.I. models say they’re more equitable and safer for society, while detractors say they are more likely to be abused for malicious intent. There’s no agreed-upon definition of what open source A.I. companies of “openwashing” — using the “open source” term disingenuously to make themselves look good.

Persons: Elon Musk, Sam Altman, Biden, There’s, A.I, Alek Tarkowski, ’, ” Organizations: Linux Foundation Locations: European

Inflation euphoria goes globalStocks in Asia and parts of Europe rose on Thursday as investors bet that new data showing inflation easing would finally persuade central bankers to lower interest rates from multidecade highs. Another test comes on Thursday when Walmart, a bellwether for U.S. consumer sentiment, reports quarterly results. The market moves follow Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index report, which came in better than expected. Inflation remains well above the Fed’s 2 percent target, but traders were encouraged by the results. The futures market now sees two Fed rate cuts this year, the first most likely coming in September.

Organizations: Walmart Locations: Asia, Europe

Behind a big shake-upA day after OpenAI announced major updates to its ChatGPT chatbot, the company said its chief scientist and co-founder was leaving. There were signs that Ilya Sutskever would quit, six months after he helped lead the rebellion that briefly ousted Sam Altman as OpenAI’s C.E.O. But it also raises questions about the future of a leading developer of generative A.I. “OpenAI would not exist without him and certainly was shaped by him,” Altman told The Times about Sutskever. But Sutskever’s presence at OpenAI may have become untenable.

Persons: OpenAI, Ilya Sutskever, Sam Altman, OpenAI’s, “ OpenAI, ” Altman, Altman, Elon Musk, Sutskever Organizations: Times

The restrictions build on Trump-era measures, and many are likely to appeal to voters in battleground states ahead of the election. But it’s less clear if they are enough to rebuild America’s industrial base in a global race with China to lead in the new economy. The new duties will apply to about $18 billion of annual Chinese imports, the Biden administration said. Biden is at pains to say that he’s being smarter than Trump on China. Trump imposed sweeping trade barriers and has vowed to impose more if he’s re-elected.

Persons: Biden, Donald Trump, Trump, he’s Organizations: China, Trump Locations: China, American, U.S

Wall Street is increasingly divided over whether the Fed will cut interest rates by Election Day. New inflation data out this week will go a long way toward settling that question, as polls show that President Biden is struggling to convince voters that he’s done a good job on the economy. A first-quarter uptick in inflation has forced the Fed to keep borrowing costs at a 23-year high. Economists see a slight improvement, forecasting that April’s Consumer Price Index report on Wednesday will show that inflation moderated slightly last month. (Economists will also be watching Tuesday’s Producer Price Index and retail sales data on Wednesday.)

Persons: Biden, he’s, Sarah House, ” Organizations: Fed Locations: Wells Fargo

The “stretched” consumerBetter than expected quarterly earnings have helped propel the S&P 500 to within a whisker of a record high on Friday. But Wall Street and Washington are closely monitoring another worrying economic indicator: the struggling consumer. The split-screen view of the economy is becoming clearer as earnings season draws to a close. Mass-market brands, like the fast-food companies McDonald’s, KFC and Starbucks, have reported that a lot of customers are pulling back on spending as high inflation bites. This is “an economy of the haves and have-nots,” Michael Reid, an economist for RBC Capital Markets, told DealBook.

Persons: Biden, ” Michael Reid, DealBook Organizations: KFC, Starbucks, RBC Capital Markets Locations: Washington

Splitting the Paramount empireEver since Sony Pictures Entertainment and Apollo Global Management expressed interest in buying Paramount Global, a big question has loomed over the potential $26 billion deal: What would they do with the company? The answer: Break it up, write The Times’s Ben Mullin and DealBook’s Lauren Hirsch. Sony and Apollo would keep Paramount Pictures. Paramount Pictures would become part of a joint venture controlled by Sony, with Apollo taking a minority stake in the new entity that it could eventually sell to Sony or to another buyer. The venture would also keep Paramount’s library of films and TV shows, as well as the rights to characters like the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles.

Persons: Ben Mullin, DealBook’s Lauren Hirsch, “ Organizations: Sony Pictures Entertainment, Apollo Global Management, Paramount Global, Sony, Apollo, Paramount Pictures, Paramount

The company argues that the law violates the First Amendment by effectively killing an app in the U.S. that millions of Americans use to share their views. Another problem: a divestiture within 270 days is practically impossible, Sapna Maheshwari and David McCabe report for The Times. DealBook spoke with Maheshwari about the lawsuit filed yesterday and what happens next. Do legal experts think TikTok has a chance at winning? Alan Rozenshtein, an associate professor at the University of Minnesota Law School, says that a victory is possible based on the “very, very substantial First Amendment challenge” involved.

Persons: TikTok, Sapna Maheshwari, David McCabe, DealBook, Maheshwari, Alan Rozenshtein, ” Organizations: U.S, The Times, University of Minnesota Law School Locations: Washington, ByteDance, U.S

The numbers behind a big fundOn Wall Street, one mystery has been whispered about for months: How accurate is the valuation of Blackstone’s flagship real estate fund? The speculation has arisen because the fund, the $59 billion Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust — more commonly known as BREIT — has managed to keep an “appraised” value of its assets that far exceeds virtually every other real estate fund. Many rivals have fallen in value, some quite dramatically, in the face of high interest rates and a flagging property market. BREIT’s performance has floated above its competition, and it has boasted a 10.5 percent annual return since its 2017 debut. (Those appraisals help to determine a firm’s management fees: The higher the appraisal value, the higher the fees.)

Persons: —, Blackstone, DealBook’s Andrew Ross Sorkin, Michael de la Organizations: Blackstone Real Locations: Michael de la Merced

But there’s an overlooked set of winners as well: utilities and energy companies. The power demands of the huge data centers that underpin the A.I. Wall Street is taking notice — but the climate effect isn’t getting as much attention. Tech’s energy needs are coming into focus as investors get to grips with how much of an “energy hog” generative A.I. Analysts at Wells Fargo see the A.I.

Organizations: Microsoft Locations: Wells

But this year’s event will be the first without Munger, who died in November at age 99 — and comes amid growing questions about Berkshire post-Buffett, who’s 93. Buffett will have a different crew answering questions alongside him on Saturday. Berkshire’s vice chairmen, Greg Abel and Ajit Jain, will be on hand for much of the day. Shareholders most likely will be focused on what Abel, Buffett’s appointed successor as C.E.O. In Buffett’s annual letter to investors, he noted challenges to Berkshire’s biggest businesses, including the BNSF railroad (falling shipment volumes) and its utility business (forest fires).

Persons: Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, Munger, Buffett, Greg Abel, Ajit Jain, Abel, Buffett’s Organizations: Berkshire, Shareholders Locations: Berkshire, Omaha, Woodstock, America

ImageHERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENINGExxon Mobil strikes an agreement to win regulatory approval of its $60 billion megadeal. Elsewhere, shares in Shell were up after the producer reported $7.7 billion in adjusted quarterly earnings, beating analyst expectations. The U.S. imposes sanctions on Chinese companies over military support for Russia’s war effort. The Biden administration announced on Wednesday nearly 300 sanctions, including on more than a dozen Chinese businesses, aimed at disrupting Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The culprit: pressure on prices, amid growing competition from Eli Lilly’s Zepbound, supply constraints and scrutiny from lawmakers.

Persons: Scott Sheffield, Biden, Janet Yellen, Antony Blinken, Eli Lilly’s Zepbound, James Comer, Comer Organizations: Labor Department, Exxon Mobil, Natural Resources, Wall Street, Novo Nordisk, Republican, European Commission Locations: Shell, U.S, Ukraine, Danish, Kentucky, iRobot

A flicker of hope for the weed businessFor years, the dreams of the cannabis industry looked like they might go up in smoke, with the U.S. government classifying marijuana as a drug as dangerous as heroin. But the multibillion-dollar industry now has some hope that could change. The bet is that this will give the industry a new lease on life — though it shouldn’t expect big changes immediately. Shares in Tilray, a giant in the industry, jumped 39 percent on Tuesday, while those in Canopy Growth leaped nearly 79 percent. That’s welcome news for investors in both companies: Canopy Growth’s stock is down 97 percent over the past five years, while those in Tilray are down 95 percent.

Persons: Biden Organizations: U.S, Justice Locations: Tilray

Paramount’s cloudy futureThe boardroom intrigue at Paramount Global — the drama that has gripped the corporate world — just got messier. Bob Bakish is out as C.E.O., replaced by three subordinates who will form an “office of the C.E.O.” His departure caps a year of rising tension between him and Shari Redstone, Paramount’s controlling shareholder, who is pushing for a deal with David Ellison’s Skydance. Bakish’s exit removed an executive who didn’t support that transaction, but it doesn’t resolve all of the big questions hanging over the company’s future. Why Bakish was pushed out: Redstone picked the low-profile company veteran to lead Paramount after years of internal strife, but they still ended up clashing.

Persons: Bob Bakish, ”, Shari Redstone, David Ellison’s Skydance, Bakish Organizations: Paramount Global, Redstone, Paramount

Why Elon Musk went to ChinaJust days after Secretary of State Antony Blinken traveled to Beijing and warned China about unfair trade practices, Elon Musk landed in the Chinese capital. 2 official may have paid off: Musk reportedly cleared two obstacles to introducing a fully autonomous driving system in the world’s biggest car market. Musk is betting big on self-driving, and China is key. Tesla last week reported its worst quarter in two years as a price war hurts profit. Fully autonomous driving is also crucial.

Persons: Elon Musk, Antony Blinken, Tesla, China’s, they’ve, Musk, ” Organizations: Elon Locations: China, Beijing

An effort to give Trump more say on ratesThis week, investors had planned to examine the latest inflation data, due out at 8:30 a.m. Eastern on Friday, for clues about when the Fed would start cutting interest rates. The Wall Street Journal reports that allies of Donald Trump are devising ways of watering down the central bank’s independence if he is re-elected president. But it also raises questions about whether such a plan is possible — or whether Trump’s Wall Street supporters would back it. Among the most consequential would be asserting that Trump had the authority to oust Jay Powell as Fed chair before Powell’s term is up in 2025. While Trump gave Powell the job in 2017, he has since soured on his pick for raising rates, and has publicly said he wouldn’t give Powell a second term.

Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, Jay Powell, Powell, wouldn’t Organizations: Trump, Street Journal, Wall

Meta’s A.I. But for investors, that’s not enough — and that’s a warning to other tech giants set to announce their own financial results in the coming days. That makes clear that while Wall Street loves the opportunities that A.I. The company plans to spend $35 billion to $40 billion this year — much of that on the technology — up from a forecast of $30 billion to $37 billion. It also expects second-quarter revenue to come in at $36.5 billion to $39 billion, below analyst estimates.

Persons: Meta’s, Meta, that’s, Mark Zuckerberg Organizations: Facebook, Wall, Meta

The winners from the TikTok battleThe countdown to TikTok disappearing from the United States is about to start. The Senate overwhelmingly passed legislation to force the divestment of the video app by its Chinese owner, ByteDance, within a year or be banned. Barring the app from U.S. shores could take months, or even years — if it actually happens. The road ahead is complicated, and any disruptions to the app could bolster its American rivals. Analysts at Bernstein have estimated that, should TikTok be banned, Meta could draw up to 60 percent of TikTok’s American ad revenue, while YouTube could take another 25 percent or so.

Persons: Biden, Bernstein Organizations: Google, Meta, YouTube Locations: United States

Campus unrest spreadsTop American colleges are in turmoil, with dozens of pro-Palestinian student protesters having been arrested at N.Y.U. and Yale amid new worries about antisemitism on campus. The latest: Police were called in to break up pro-Palestinian protests at N.Y.U. Harvard shut Harvard Yard and Columbia will make classes at its main campus hybrid until next week. Encampments were growing at other schools, including M.I.T., the University of Michigan and the University of California, Berkeley.

Organizations: Palestinian, Yale, University, University of Pennsylvania, Harvard, Police, Columbia, University of Michigan, University of California Locations: N.Y.U, Columbia, Berkeley

Tesla investors’ nerve-racking rideTesla has hardly been keeping quiet as it prepares to announce earnings on Tuesday. These developments are the latest signs that Tesla is confronting its toughest stretch in years — and many shareholders aren’t convinced that the company and its C.E.O., Elon Musk, are taking the right steps to address it. The latest: During the weekend, Tesla cut prices of several models in China, the U.S. and Europe. Those moves came a day after Tesla voluntarily recalled nearly 4,000 Cybertrucks over a faulty accelerator pedal that could get stuck. It’s all apparently keeping Musk so busy that he canceled a trip to India, during which he was expected to meet with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and announce plans to build a factory there.

Persons: Tesla, aren’t, Elon Musk, Narendra Modi Locations: China, U.S, Europe, India

After the Indiana Fever made Caitlin Clark the W.N.B.A.’s No. In exchange for Clark’s once-in-a-generation talent, the W.N.B.A. The simplest reason the W.N.B.A. isn’t paying Clark more is that the league brings in just $200 million annually and relies on the N.B.A. The N.B.A., by contrast, brings in about $10 billion.

Persons: Caitlin Clark, ”, Clark’s, Biden, Clark Organizations: Indiana Fever, Nike

Labor painsAfter a “summer of strikes” last year that stretched from Detroit to Hollywood, unions are on a roll, flexing their growing might. Friday will bring a new test of that power as workers at a Volkswagen factory in Tennessee vote on whether to join the United Automobile Workers. Victory there would mark perhaps the first time a foreign carmaker’s U.S. plant became unionized and form a beachhead for organized labor in the anti-union South. But it could also resonate well beyond the car industry as President Biden cultivates labor in battleground states like Michigan and Pennsylvania. A yes vote would be a big win for the U.A.W.

Persons: ”, Biden, Shawn Fain, they’ve Organizations: Volkswagen, United Automobile Workers, Big, Detroit carmakers, Toyota, Tesla, Automotive News Locations: Detroit, Hollywood, Tennessee, U.S, Michigan, Pennsylvania

The clock ticks for TikTokThe push to either split TikTok from its Chinese owner, ByteDance, or ban it in the U.S. is gaining momentum thanks to a legislative maneuver by the House Speaker Mike Johnson. The bill’s progress comes as The Times reveals more details about the video platform’s origin story — and the central role played by the Chinese subsidiary of the trading firm of a Republican donor, Jeff Yass. Johnson has bundled the TikTok bill into a foreign aid package. The speaker said on Wednesday that he would put up for a vote this weekend a spending measure for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan that includes a modified version of the TikTok divestment legislation. The move may force the Senate’s hand: The House overwhelmingly passed the bill last month, but the Senate hasn’t been in a rush to take it up.

Persons: Mike Johnson, Jeff Yass, Johnson, hasn’t Organizations: Times Locations: U.S, Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan

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