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Growth will wilt under the pressure of perpetually high interest rates, Chiavarone said, though he added that rolling recessions across industries are more likely than a sudden, 2008-style downturn. Higher-for-longer interest rates are the biggest threat to the US economy, Chiavarone said. Goldman SachsEighteen months of tightening financial conditions will have a profound impact on the economy, Chiavarone said. The multi-asset solutions head is watching how corporations respond next year when they're forced to refinance debt at much higher rates. Since they have plenty of cash on hand, these companies aren't reliant on external financing and can avoid exposure to lofty interest rates.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Steve Chiavarone, Hermes, Chiavarone, it's, they're Organizations: Federated Hermes, Treasury, Federated, Federal, Fed, Companies, Consumer, Vanguard Consumer, ETF, Healthcare, Utilities, Vanguard Utilities
One place in the world stands as a beacon for investors in bank stocks: Japan. Japanese banks have outperformed in a year when U.S. banks have come under pressure both from rapidly rising interest rates and the regional banking crisis last spring. "We've been bullish on Japanese banks for a long time," said Chen Zhao, chief global strategist at Alpine Macro. Part of what's driving the bull case for Japanese banks is the country's yield curve. While the U.S. and other developed economies contend with an inverted yield curve that's weighing on financial profit margins, Japan continues to have a positive yield curve.
Persons: We've, Chen Zhao, Zhao, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Japan's, Kolanovic, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: JPMorgan, Regional Banking, Treasury, Japan Post Bank, Chiba Bank, JPMorgan BetaBuilders Japan, Resona Holdings Locations: Japan, U.S, EWJ
Utilities, beloved for their dividend payments, are under pressure in today's high rate environment, but a few gems stand out in the tarnished sector, according to Bank of America. The sector has suffered through 2023, shedding 16%, as the Federal Reserve continues to roll out its policy-tightening campaign. But there are a few opportunities in the sector, even as Bank of America says utilities aren't particularly compelling now. Both are also deemed top buys by Bank of America. PG & E has a California rate case development coming on Nov. 2, when the California Public Utilities Commission will be meeting.
Persons: Julien Dumoulin, Smith, ConEd, Michael Bloom Organizations: Bank of America, Federal Reserve, Consolidated Edison, E Corporation, PPL Corporation, California Public Utilities Commission, Kentucky Public Service Commission, PPL Locations: California, Kentucky
Even the market's most serious risks likely won't derail the economy, according to the brain trust at $1.3 trillion Ameriprise Financial. The S&P 500 should score a mid- to high-single-digit gain next year, Saglimbene told Insider, if earnings grow as expected. So there's some risk that valuations are going to have to come in, and that path for interest rates is very important." Popular small-cap ETFs include the iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF (IJR) and the Schwab US Small-Cap ETF (SCHA) while the Vanguard European Stock Index Fund ETF (VGK) and WisdomTree Europe Small-Cap Dividend ETF (DFE) also might fit with Ameriprise's projections. "At the same time, we'll have yields that are at some of the highest levels we've seen since the financial crisis.
Persons: Russell Price, Price, he's, Ameriprise's Anthony Saglimbene, Justin Burgin, Saglimbene, Burgin, There's, we've, Russell, Ameriprise, weren't Organizations: Bank of America, Nvidia, Saglimbene, Schwab, Vanguard, Index Fund, Fed Locations: Israel, Europe
A Monday evening note from Almanac editor Jeffrey Hirsch said that the stock market appears to be in the early stages of an end-of-year rally. SPY YTD mountain The S & P 500 is up since May, but did suffer a late-summer swoon. The buy signal could help offset the multiple negatives working against the stock market, including bond yield volatility and the conflict in the Middle East. The Almanac's portfolio changes show an expectation of a broad market rally. The moves include buying the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) , SPDR S & P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) , and the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) as well as the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) .
Persons: Jeffrey Hirsch, SPDR, Russell Organizations: Dow Jones, ETF Trust, Trust, P Biotech, Consumer, Vanguard, Index
Banks have suffered as interest rates linger at higher levels for longer, making the cost of borrowing money more expensive. Investors such as Neuberger Berman's Steve Eisman aren't optimistic about the sector either heading into earnings season due to higher capital requirements . Earnings per share have been growing at least 5% on average a year for the past three years, showing earnings consistency. Average analyst consensus forecasts call for nearly 13% upside from Wednesday's $122.74 close. JPMorgan also made the list, with the average analyst price target calling for close to 16% upside.
Persons: Banks, Neuberger, Steve Eisman, KeyCorp, Piper Sandler, Ebrahim Poonawala Organizations: CNBC Pro, PNC, Bank of America, JPMorgan Locations: Cleveland, Pittsburgh
JPMorgan Chase Bank is seen in New York City, U.S., March 21, 2023. In the first 10 days of this month, the $1.46 billion Invesco KBW Bank ETF (KBWB.O) saw net outflows of $336.18 million, while the $2.49 billion SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF saw net outflows of $19.58 million. Overall, the Invesco fund and the SPDR fund posted net inflows of $381.16 million and $565.15 million so far this year. The prices of the ETFs are down 23% and 28.4%, respectively, as bank stocks fell sharply earlier this year following the collapse of California-based Silicon Valley Bank and two other U.S. lenders. "Although, our equity research team indicates that selling may have pushed prices down too far and created a buying opportunity."
Persons: Caitlin Ochs, Hogan, Riley, JPMorgan Chase, Wells, Bryan Armour, Bansari Mayur, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: JPMorgan Chase Bank, REUTERS, Exchange, KBW Bank, Regional Banking, Valley Bank, U.S, Federal, JPMorgan, Citigroup, North America, Morningstar, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, California, Bengaluru
There's still value to be found among renewable energy stocks despite a rout, according to Bank of America. Leading renewable stock NextEra Energy Partners trimmed its growth forecast earlier this week, sparking a sell-off in the cleantech sector that has lasted for several days. Its stock tumbled about 27% so far this week, while its parent NextEra Energy is down 15% during the same period. BofA analyst Julien Dumoulin-Smith said the event has caused a "collapse in confidence" in NextEra and stoked fears that higher rates will dampen demand for renewable energy projects. ConEd stock has slipped about 12% from the start of the year, while shares of Array are down nearly 2%.
Persons: Julien Dumoulin, Smith, BofA, ConEd, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Bank of America, Energy Partners, Energy, PPA, Utilities, NextEra Energy, Technologies, Consolidated Edison, NXT, ConEd Locations: NextEra, Dumoulin
The recent sharp rise in interest rates has created a buying opportunity in some financial stocks, according to Bank of America. Surging bond yields have the potential to slow the U.S. economy and damage the financial sector, weighing on bank stocks. But Bank of America analyst Ebrahim Poonawala said in a note to clients Wednesday that some stocks have fallen far enough that investors who can stomach the volatility should turn buyers. "We see it as almost impossible in the near term for bank stocks to disconnect with the price action in [U.S. Treasury] yields. The stocks Bank of America highlighted as trading at this attractive level include Wells Fargo , Goldman Sachs , First Horizon and East West .
Persons: Ebrahim Poonawala, Goldman Sachs, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Bank of America, U.S . Treasury Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo
Utility stocks are getting pummeled to a historic degree as interest rates rise to their highest level in more than a decade, according to technical indicators. XLU 1M mountain Utilities stocks have fallen sharply in recent weeks as interest rates have climbed. "The interest rate regime, I certainly think that's what has caused this latest sell-off. Rising interest rates are a double whammy for utility stocks. "Based on our valuation regression model, which accounts for both interest rates and growth among other factors, utilities still screen ~9% overvalued ...
Persons: Jason Goepfert, SentimenTrader, Chris Verrone, I'm, Goepfert, It's, They're, Josh Brown, NextEra's, Brown, Ross Fowler, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Federal, CNBC, Wealth, NextEra Partners, NextEra Energy, UBS
Dozens of stocks and ETFs are hitting 52-week lows on the relentless rise in interest rates. Treasury bond ETFs: New lows iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY) iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLH) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) It's not just Treasury bonds. Broad bond ETFs: New lows Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) iShares Core US Aggregate Bond Fund (AGG) Higher rates are affecting other areas of the U.S. economy: look at clean energy and biotech It's simple. Clean energy ETFs: New lows iShares Global Clean Energy (ICLN) VanEck Low Carbon Energy ETF (SMOG) Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy ETF (PBW) Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) It's the same story with biotech. The SPDR S & P Biotech ETF (XBI) , which tracks an equal-weighted index of US biotechnology stocks, is at a 52-week low.
Persons: Schwab, It's Organizations: Vanguard Utilities, Treasury Bond ETF, Bond Market, Bond Fund, NextEra Energy Partners, Clean Energy, Carbon Energy, P Biotech, Biotechnology, Biotech, Verizon, SPDR Telecom, AT, Property, Comerica, Huntington Bancshares Locations: U.S, Orsted, Denmark, REITs
Bearish views on the stock market culminated in the sale of an estimated record of $40 billion of S & P 500 stock index futures over the past five sessions, but that selling pressure is about to ease, according to a note from the Goldman Sachs trading desk. Hedge funds that use a managed futures strategy (Commodity Trading Advisors, or CTAs) recently unwound positions in S & P 500 futures at the greatest speed and magnitude "on record," Goldman said. With most of those positions now squared away, however, Goldman claims "we are closer to the end of this sell pressure than not." Goldman said lower risk, lowest cost trades are available in one-month call options on the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust , Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund , Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund and SPDR S & P 500 ETF Trust . Greater returns might come from stocks that Goldman added to its "conviction list" Monday, such as Nvidia , Cintas and Quanterix Corp. (Goldman removed Salesforce and Johnson Controls from the "conviction list" this week.)
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Salesforce, Michael Bloom Organizations: Trading Advisors, Dow Jones, ETF Trust, Health, Fund, Consumer, Trust, Nvidia, Quanterix Corp, Johnson
Experts predict oil prices will continue to rise heading into the fourth quarter, driven by tighter supply and production cuts. Despite some profit-taking in the last week of September, crude oil prices have rallied since the summer. That means U.S. crude oil reserves will remain under pressure amid the Saudi production cuts. And questions still remain as to the strength of a resurgence from the Chinese economy and how that will support higher oil prices. Goldman also recently published its list of buy-rated stocks to play higher oil prices, which included Chevron and Baker Hughes .
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Brent, Viktor Katona, Katona, Stephen Ellis, Ellis, Ole Hansen, " Hansen, Brian Mulberry, Mulberry, Goldman, Baker Hughes, Neil Mehta, Mehta Organizations: Brent, West, West Texas, Bank of America, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Morningstar, Saxos Bank, Zacks Investment Management, Federal Reserve, ConocoPhillips, XOM Locations: West Texas, Saudi Arabia, Saudi, Russia, OPEC, U.S, Cushing , Oklahoma, East, Kuwait, Iraq, Ukraine, Iran
.DXY 1Y mountain The dollar index hit new highs for 2023 in September. "Energy equities haven't really kept up with the energy market rally," she added. The latest iShares outlook highlighted the firm's U.S. Energy ETF (IYE) as a way to play higher oil prices. Other major funds in that category include the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) , the Vanguard Energy Index ETF (VDE) and the Fidelity MSCI Energy Index ETF (FENY) . Investors can outsource currency market decisions in the form of managed futures ETFs, which have exposure to currency markets in addition to other asset classes.
Persons: Gargi Chaudhuri, Morgan Stanley, Sasikanth Chilukuru, It's, Chaudhuri, Todd Sohn, Sohn, Andrew Beer, Beer, You've, Anastasia Amoroso, There's, Amoroso Organizations: Texas, BlackRock, iShares, Energy, U.S . Energy, Vanguard Energy, Fidelity MSCI Energy, Wall, U.S ., Invesco DB, Fund, WisdomTree Bloomberg, Investors, Global, Apple, Nvidia Locations: U.S, Saudi Arabia, DBi, Japan
On Friday's "Ask Halftime," traders answered questions from CNBC Pro subscribers about which stocks and exchange-traded funds to buy, hold or sell right now. NewEdge Wealth's Rob Sechan talks about why right now may not be the best time to enter new positions in Microsoft and Broadcom because he sees more downside to come before they go higher. Bryn Talkington of Requisite Capital Management recommended the Invesco S & P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSPG) for exposure to energy names because it is more diversified than the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE ).
Persons: NewEdge, Rob Sechan, Bryn Talkington Organizations: CNBC Pro, Microsoft, Broadcom, Management, Energy
A bearish head-and-shoulders pattern has formed in the S&P 500, Keller said in a recent interview with Insider. The S&P 500 is in a head-and-shoulders pattern and could soon fall to around 4,100. His early August warning that stocks will slide was correct, though the S&P 500 didn't give up as much of its summer rally as the chart guru predicted. Outside of technology, Keller likes stocks in the utilities and energy sectors — specifically those in the oilfield services industry. The recent rebound of utilities, a defensive stalwart, is another signal that more market downside is likely ahead, Keller said.
Persons: chartmaster David Keller, Keller, StockCharts.com, we've, David Keller, Keller's, he's, it's, Keller didn't Organizations: Labor, Nvidia, Utilities, Energy, VanEck Oil Services
Some believe a tight oil market and resilient U.S. growth will keep energy stocks rising for the rest of 2023. Bullish investors argue that energy stocks are still cheap by historical standards - and far less richly valued than other areas of the market. The energy sector currently trades at a forward price to earnings ratio of 12.2, well below its historical median forward P/E of 15.3, according to LSEG Datastream. Parts of the market appear skeptical energy stocks have much further to run. "That should result in a ... smoother ride for energy stocks than we’ve been accustomed to."
Persons: Bing Guan, LSEG, Charles Lemonides, Baker Hughes, Savita Subramanian, Brent, Bjarne Schieldrop, Rodney Clayton, we’ve, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, Marguerita Choy Organizations: Exxon, Mobil, REUTERS, Energy, West Texas, Federal, drillers, U.S . Energy, Administration, Global, Citi, Brent, SEB Research, Macquarie, Duff, Phelps Investment Management, Thomson Locations: Beaumont , Texas, U.S, Saudi Arabia, Russia, China
Another is the still-inverted Treasury yield curve, meaning yields on shorter-duration government bonds are higher than those with longer durations. Inversions of the 3-month and 10-year yields have preceded every recession since the 1960s without producing a false signal. The Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE) and the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) offer exposure to energy stocks. The Consumer Price Index, a main measure of inflation, rose to 3.7% year-over-year in August compared to 3.2% in July. Investors can gain exposure to short-term government bonds through TreasuryDirect, their brokerage, or through ETFs like the Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (VGSH).
Persons: Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, Michael Feroli, Cash Organizations: for Supply Management, Bank of America, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Federal, Energy, Vanguard Energy Locations: China, TreasuryDirect
These are Wall Street's favorite energy stocks as oil rallies
  + stars: | 2023-09-07 | by ( Pia Singh | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
For investors looking to play this trend, here are some energy stocks with the greatest long-term upside potential. The sector has added 0.5% this week as oil prices rallied from news of extended voluntary oil supply cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia until year-end. Oil and natural gas company Diamondback Energy is another name on the list. Natural gas producer EQT , oil and gas giant EOG Resources , as well as petroleum refining and marketing company Valero Energy , are also Wall Street favorites. For investors looking for energy stocks but who do not want to bet on individual names, the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) and the iShares U.S. Energy ETF (IYE) track companies in the sector.
Persons: Russell, Halliburton, Nitin Kumar, EQT, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Energy, CNBC, Oil, Resources, Diamondback Energy, Diamondback, Energy Partners, Warwick Capital Partners, Valero Energy, Mizuho Securities, Valero, Energy Investment, U.S . Energy Locations: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Oil and Texas, EQT, U.S, XLE
He likes "defensive growth stocks," industrials, and energy stocks. Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson says the stock market's rally is likely running out of steam, and quickly. Also, on technicals, market breadth — or the share of stocks participating in the rally — is still weak. Morgan StanleyIn addition to over-extended technicals, Wilson said deteriorating fundamentals threaten the market. In particular, he's concerned about "real" consumer spending growth — or growth that accounts for inflation — which he and Morgan Stanley economists believe will dip negative year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2023.
Persons: Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, Let's, Wilson, Morgan Stanley Organizations: bank's, Equity ETF, Vanguard Energy Locations: technicals, delinquencies
Goldman Sachs encourages investors to buy shares of potato products maker Lamb Weston , anticipating a comeback for the stock after a difficult few months. Analyst Adam Samuelson upgraded shares to buy from neutral. Shares have tumbled 15% since June 30, underperforming the S & P 500 and the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP). LW XLP mountain 2023-06-30 LW vs XLP since June 30 "We see recent underperformance providing an attractive entry point," Samuelson wrote in a Monday note. He added that the company's stronger-than-expected fiscal fourth-quarter and fiscal 2024 outlook suggest "a balance of risks skewed to the upside."
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Lamb Weston, Adam Samuelson, Goldman, Samuelson, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Consumer Locations: Asia
BOTZ has been a key beneficiary of the AI advance, garnering $594 million in inflows this year, according to FactSet. While many investors see AI as a tech play, Todd Sohn, ETF and technical strategist at Strategas Securities, believes that the benefit of industrials is an under-the-radar narrative worth taking a second glance at. And because data is what's driving AI, Maier said, larger companies like Amazon , Alphabet and Meta Platforms best retain that type of exposure. "Right now, [data] is what AI is, while we're trying to figure out where AI is going," he said. But for investors looking to diversify beyond the tech wave, Sohn affirmed that industrials are poised to benefit from the rise in AI-induced efficiency and productivity in robotics and automation companies.
Persons: Jon Maier, CNBC's Bob Pisani, Maier, it's, BOTZ, Todd Sohn, Sohn, " Sohn, AIQ, industrials Organizations: Robotics, Intelligence, Nvidia, Strategas Securities, Technology, Global Locations: BOTZ, U.S, outflows
"A rise in 10-year rates, has historically been devastating for consumer and consumer discretionary stocks," he said. "With the 10-year breaking above 4.25%, we are seeing all those consumer discretionary stocks that have had big years pull back sharply." For Stutland, that consumer strength is keeping him bullish on the stock market and U.S. economy in general — but not consumer discretionary stocks. "I'm staying away from the lower market cap weighted stocks and consumer discretionary from those apparel type brands," he said. "As a whole, consumer discretionary stocks to invest in are narrowing.
Persons: Jason Ware, Brian Stutland, Ware, nonfarm, Dow Jones, Stutland, I'm, Stocks Organizations: Albion Financial Group, Equity Armor Investments, Fund, New York Federal Reserve, Starbucks, Visa Locations: U.S, New
The wildfires in Maui are just the latest example of severe weather and the peril facing utilities. However, investors can pick up about 4% yield on stocks that have dividends that are considered safe, which makes them attractive to investors seeking income. Climate change's impact Climate change is altering not only the Earth's temperature, but also precipitation patterns, said Zachary Zobel, risk associate director at Woodwell Climate Research Center. Climate change could impact utilities in other areas, like sustaining damage during hurricanes and floods. "You don't have to just rely on just one sector to get dividend income," said Cheng.
Persons: hasn't, Michael Lonegan, Neil Kalton, Kalton, Zachary Zobel, Zobel, Berkshire Hathaway, PacificCorp, Wells Fargo's Kalton, it's, Marguerita Cheng, Cheng, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Hawaiian Electric, Maui Electric, Electric, NBC News, Evercore ISI, Wall Street, Wells, Wells Fargo Securities, FEMA, Woodwell Climate Research Center, Gas & Electric, Blue, Global, CNBC, & $ Locations: Maui, Lahaina, Wells Fargo, California, Berkshire
Standout hedge fund manager Charles Lemonides came into the year careful but is now more optimistic. Heading into 2023, hedge fund manager Charles Lemonides was preparing for the worst. His hedge fund is down 8% in 2023 through May, though it's still up 155% in the past five years. The hedge fund manager said the economy can take another rate hike or two, even though investors may groan about it. The hedge fund manager is currently bullish on energy stocks broadly — particularly those in the oil and gas industry.
Persons: Charles Lemonides, Lemonides, hasn't, it's, We've, he's, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Investors, Federal Reserve, Netflix, Energy, P Oil & Gas Exploration, Production, Unit Corp, United Natural Foods, Yale Materials, Foods Locations: financials
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