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[1/2] Supporters of Brazil's former President Jair Bolsonaro are pictured through broken glass as they hold a demonstration against President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, in Brasilia, Brazil, January 8, 2023. REUTERS/Adriano MachadoMEXICO CITY/SAO PAULO, Jan 9 (Reuters) - Brazilian assets may be hit by fresh volatility on Monday after supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro stormed key government buildings, echoing the U.S. Jan. 6 insurrection of 2021, analysts said. Ricardo Lacerda, founder and CEO of Brazilian investment bank BR Partners (BRBI11.SA), said he expects markets to react with volatility in the short term, especially on Monday, given the higher institutional risk. But Komura expects the markets to recover by the end of the week considering a strong institutional reaction against the rioters. While large sections of the Brazilian banking industry has tended to back Bolsonaro given his free market credentials relative to Lula's Workers' Party, the sector's main industry association roundly condemned Sunday's violence.

Below are the events, trends and topics investors expect to shape the outlook for emerging markets next year. "The economic downturns along with the aggressive monetary tightening and geopolitical and commodity shocks that induce them will be temporarily painful in financial and emerging markets," said David Folkerts-Landau, group chief economist at Deutsche Bank. Globally, the war has transformed energy markets and inflation pressures, food security and geopolitical risk perception - factors that are often more keenly felt in emerging economies. "There's not actually a lot of debt maturing next year," said Carmen Altenkirch, emerging markets sovereign analyst at Aviva Investors. 6/ TURKEY ELECTIONSPresident Tayyip Erdogan could face the biggest political challenge of his two decades in power as Turks head to the ballot box in the most high-profile vote in emerging markets.

"The World Cup is an immense joy that revives us after suffering economic crisis for so long," Victorica said. "But soon we will have to fall back into reality and face the situations that weigh us down every day." "The World Cup gives us hope and the desire to believe," said Osvaldo Hassan, a 62-year-old merchant in Buenos Aires. World Cup wins can give a small boost to a country's economy in the months following, an academic paper from Britain's University of Surrey found, helping raise exports. Reporting by Rodrigo Campos in New York and Belen Liotti in Buenos Aires; Writing by Adam Jourdan; Editing by Alex RichardsonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Payments company Wise suspends Ghana cedi transfers amid volatility
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( Cooper Inveen | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

ACCRA, Dec 16 (Reuters) - Cross-border payments company Wise (WISEa.L) has suspended transfers in Ghana's cedi currency after a rapid appreciation against the dollar this week made it costlier to move money to the West African country, a Wise spokesperson told Reuters on Friday. Ghana, once considered a rising star among emerging market economies, is today facing a generational debt crisis. A spokesperson for London-based Wise said that cedi functions, which were suspended Thursday, would be restored "as soon as the situation has stabilised" and that only a small number of transfers were affected. "That said... we’ve seen the central bank buy dollars from the open market to shore up its reserves," Akoto said. Reporting by Cooper Inveen; Additional reporting by Rodrigo Campos; Editing by Louise Heavens and Tomasz JanowskiOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Analysis: Peru markets take in political drama as investors focus on fundamentals
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( Rodrigo Campos | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The Peruvian sol currency and dollar bond prices recovered early losses after President Pedro Castillo was removed in an impeachment trial following his attempt to dissolve Congress. The sol remains one of the few emerging market currencies with gains against the U.S. dollar so far this year. "So much political uncertainty is never welcome, yet the reason why markets have historically shrugged off political developments in Peru has to do with the fact that the country's fundamentals are decently strong." The sol fell over 2% against the dollar at its session low of 3.8898 before recovering slightly to trade down 1.4% at 3.8625 per dollar in early afternoon trading. Vice President Dina Boluarte was sworn as president through 2026 and the first woman to lead the Andean nation.

☆ Greece PM senses "momentum" in "Elgin Marbles" talks with Britain
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

LONDON, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Greece's Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said on Monday there was "progress" and a sense of "momentum" in talks with Britain to reunite the Parthenon Sculptures in Greece. "We have seen progress," Mitsotakis said during an event at the London School of Economics, saying that while discussions remained private, the reunification of the sculptures could be a "win-win solution". The British Museum bought the marbles in 1816 and British officials say they had been acquired legally by Elgin, a claim Greece denies. "I do sense the momentum (to reunite the sculptures)," Mitsotakis added. Reporting by Marc Jones; editing by Rodrigo CamposOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Brazil's Goldfajn elected to replace ousted IDB president
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

WASHINGTON, Nov 20 (Reuters) - The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) said on Sunday its board of governors has elected Brazil's Ilan Goldfajn as president of the financial institution, after Mauricio Claver-Carone, the first American to lead it, was ousted over ethics violations. Headquartered in Washington, the IDB is a key investor in Latin America and the Caribbean, responsible for $23.4 billion in financial commitments in 2021 and hundreds of infrastructure, health and tourism projects. In a statement, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen congratulated Goldfajn and said the United States stands by the IDB as the region's premier development finance institution. "We are counting on President Goldfajn to lead this organization to be an engine of change and progress for our neighbors across Latin America and the Caribbean," Yellen said. Brazil's outgoing President Jair Bolsonaro nominated Goldfajn, the former president of the country's central bank and currently the head of the International Monetary Fund's Western Hemisphere department.

☆ Senegal reform implementation slower than expected - IMF staff
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Nov 16 (Reuters) - Senegal has made "significant progress" in implementing structural reforms but those have come at a slower pace than anticipated, the International Monetary Fund's staff said on Wednesday. Performance of the reform program was "broadly satisfactory" and "the economy should rebound in 2023 with a strong pickup in growth to 8.3% on the back of a temporary boost from oil and gas production and absent further escalation of the war in Ukraine," Edward Gemayel, leader of the IMF mission to Senegal, said in a statement. He added that delays in payments of a cash transfer scheme for the poorest households should be addressed urgently, and that it is important for authorities to "convincingly commit" to start phasing out energy subsidies in 2023 and unwind them by 2025. Reporting by Rodrigo Campos; editing by Jonathan OatisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Trump-backed Mastriano concedes in Pennsylvania governor race
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Nov 13 (Reuters) - Republican Doug Mastriano conceded defeat on Sunday in his run for Pennsylvania's governorship in a statement that contrasted with the far-right candidate's sharp, divisive rhetoric during the race. "Josh Shapiro will be our next Governor, and I ask everyone to give him the opportunity to lead and pray that he leads well," Mastriano said in a statement posted on his Twitter feed. In his page-long message, Mastriano also thanked his wife and followers and pledged to work on election reform for Pennsylvania from his seat in the state Senate. Mastriano attended Trump's rally in Washington on Jan. 6, 2021 that preceded an attack on the U.S. Capitol. The governor race was called for Shapiro on November 8.

☆ FTX collapse being scrutinized by Bahamas authorities
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-13 | by ( Jasper Ward | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/3] The logo of FTX is seen at the entrance of the FTX Arena in Miami, Florida, U.S., November 12, 2022. REUTERS/Marco BelloNASSAU, Bahamas, Nov 13 (Reuters) - The collapse of cryptocurrency exchange FTX is the subject of scrutiny from government investigators in the Bahamas, who are looking at whether any "criminal misconduct occurred," the Royal Bahamas Police said on Sunday. Bankman-Fried had transferred $10 billion of customer funds to his trading company, Alameda Research, the sources said. Blockchain analytics firm Nansen said on Saturday it saw $659 million in outflows from FTX International and FTX U.S. in the preceding 24 hours. In its bankruptcy petition, FTX Trading said it has $10 billion to $50 billion in assets, $10 billion to $50 billion in liabilities, and more than 100,000 creditors.

Nov 13 (Reuters) - A stronger-than-expected showing by Democrats in the U.S. midterm elections may force investors to rethink the split government scenario many had expected. Democrats held onto control of the U.S. Senate, extinguishing hopes of the "red wave" that Republicans had expected leading into the midterm elections. As of early Sunday, Republicans had won 211 seats and the Democrats 205, with 218 needed for a majority. Wall Street tends to view split government favorably, in part because some investors believe it makes major policy changes more difficult to achieve. Still, "Federal Reserve policy, rather than fiscal policy, will remain the main driver of markets in our view," they said.

☆ Chile central bank likely to start easing cycle in April - JPMorgan
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

NEW YORK, Nov 10 (Reuters) - The Chilean central bank will likely begin its easing cycle in April as inflation begins to slow, JPMorgan said in a research note. "Yet, we attach more probability to the easing cycle starting in (the second quarter)," the note said. "For the easing cycle to start in January, we would need either a more disinflationary core inflation path, and/or a more abrupt deceleration in global and domestic economic activity than what we currently forecast in our central scenario." "The nominal policy rate is thus expected at 9.5%, 8.50% and 7% by June, September and December 2023, respectively." Chile is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate at 11.25% in its December meeting according to a central bank poll of analysts.

☆ Emerging markets see Oct portfolio inflows but investors rethink China -IIF
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( Rodrigo Campos | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

(Reuters) - Emerging markets enjoyed in October their second strongest month of portfolio inflows this year, though China suffered another bout of outflows with investors rethinking their exposure to the country, the Institute of International Finance (IIF) said. REUTERS/Florence LoOverall, foreign investors added $9.2 billion to emerging market portfolios last month, with fixed income attracting $7.6 billion in the strongest monthly inflows this year. However, the breakdown showed emerging markets outside China attracted $18 billion. Money managers have increasingly launched emerging market or Asia investment products with no exposure to China to meet increasing demand for such strategies from global investors. The latest inflows failed to offset outflows suffered by emerging markets earlier in the year.

☆ IMF staff recommends Turkey raise rates, boost central bank independence
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

NEW YORK, Nov 4 (Reuters) - Turkey should tighten monetary policy and give its central bank more independence, a mission from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Friday. "To address (Turkey's) challenges, the mission recommended early policy rate hikes accompanied by moves to strengthen the central bank's independence," said the IMF in a press release. "Such moves would help reduce inflation more durably and allow reserve buffers to be rebuilt over time." The IMF staff statement comes after the mission visit to Istanbul and Ankara last month. Reporting by Rodrigo Campos in New York Editing by Karin Strohecker and Matthew LewisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ U.S. Q3 GDP overshot IMF forecasts, but growth volatile -official
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( David Lawder | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The IMF in its Oct. 11 World Economic Outlook had cut its U.S. growth forecast by 0.7 percentage point, based on the weak Q2 output earlier in the year. Along with other factors, such as rising food and energy costs prompted by Russia's war in Ukraine and tighter monetary policy, the U.S. reduction offset upside surprises in Europe, leaving the IMF's 2022 global growth forecast unchanged at 3.2%. Going forward into next year, the U.S. is slowing and that's never good for the global economy," Chalk said. "In addition to slowing, it's shifting away from goods, and that's sort of exacerbating that effect on the global economy." The IMF has forecast that U.S. growth will decline further to 1.0% in 2023, with global growth falling to 2.7% next year.

☆ IMF backs Latam progressive taxes, fiscal discipline
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( Rodrigo Campos | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

For most of the region "the story there is actually they have pretty good fiscal and monetary frameworks," said Nigel Chalk, acting director of the Western Hemisphere Department at the IMF. "So it's more a question of letting the frameworks work and do their job as they were designed." The fund said last month tightening global financial conditions and high inflation clouded the outlook for Latam and Caribbean economies. Carbon taxes, which have been discussed across the region, are also on the IMF menu for increasing revenues. Reuters GraphicsReporting by Rodrigo Campos and David Lawder; Editing by Chizu NomiyamaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Stocks fall, bond yields rise as focus shifts to Fed, rate outlook
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-31 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Fed, which begins its two-day meeting Tuesday, is expected to deliver a fourth straight 75-basis-point rate hike on Wednesday in its attempt to tame inflation. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose 0.35% and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) shed 0.44%. read moreKey food and energy prices drop after initial panicGRAINS REPORTIn currencies, the dollar rose 0.8% against the struggling yen to 148.62 yen . Brazil's currency and main stock index rallied Monday, a day after leftist Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won the country's presidential election. The Bovespa stock index (.BVSP) sank 2% at the opening and ended the session up 1.3%.

[1/2] Brazil's former President and presidential candidate Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Sao Paulo Governor candidate Fernando Haddad react at an election night gathering on the day of the Brazilian presidential election run-off, in Sao Paulo, Brazil, October 30, 2022. Defeated President Jair Bolsonaro had not made public remarks more than 17 hours after the race was called. Some of his key allies have recognized publicly that Lula had won the race, easing concerns of contested election results. "There will be no transition problem, even if Bolsonaro reacts badly, most of his allies have already recognized Lula's victory". Francisco Levy, chief strategist at Empiricus Investimentos, said a favorable international reaction to Lula may help markets on the short term.

☆ Take Five: It's rate hike central
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

LONDON, Oct 28 (Reuters) - It's rate hike central with monetary policy meetings in the United States, Britain, Australia and Norway in the week ahead. Graphics by Vincent Flasseur and Sumanta Sen.1/ FOUR IN A ROWA fourth straight jumbo 75-basis point (bps) interest rate hike is widely expected when the Federal Reserve meets on Nov 1-2. Fed chair Jerome Powell has come under political pressure to be careful of putting U.S. jobs at risk by tightening policy too much. Inflation in the bloc hit 10.7%, accelerating from 9.9% last month and dashing hopes that peak inflation could be near. The European Central Bank just delivered its second 75 bps rate increase to control price pressures.

☆ Egypt's pound sinks further against dollar after flexibility pledge
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

CAIRO, Oct 30 (Reuters) - Egypt's pound fell about 4% to 24 against the dollar as trading resumed on Sunday, Refinitiv data showed, after authorities committed to a flexible exchange rate under an International Monetary Fund support deal. The pound slid about 14.5% to 23 against the dollar on Thursday after they pledged a "durably flexible" exchange rate in conjunction with a staff-level agreement for a $3 billion IMF extended fund facility. Egypt's currency has been held steady or allowed to depreciate only gradually following previous sharp devaluations in 2016 and this March. It has weakened about 34.5% against the dollar so far this year. It introduced a mandatory requirement for importers to use letters of credit, leading to a sharp slowdown in imports and bottlenecks at ports.

BUENOS AIRES/LONDON, Oct 28 (Reuters) - Argentina reached a deal to restructure some $1.97 billion it owes the Paris Club, Argentina's government and the creditor group said on Friday, which will push repayments back as far as 2028 and bring relief of some $248 million to the country. "Today, Argentina successfully completed an agreement with the Paris Club to normalize relations between our country, our companies, and our workers with the countries of the European bloc," Argentine Economy Minister Sergio Massa said. The deal would see the current 9% interest rate on the debt cut to a weighted average of 4.5%, according to a document shared with Reuters by officials. read moreThe Paris Club, whose members include the United States, Japan and Germany, last year gave Argentina more time to repay the debt while it carried out an ultimately successful negotiation with the IMF over a new $44 billion program. The Paris Club said in a statement the two sides had revamped the debt deal to clear remaining payments over a six-year period between December 2022 and September 2028.

☆ Take Five: It's rate-hike central
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

LONDON, Oct 28 (Reuters) - It's rate-hike central with monetary policy meetings in the United States, Britain, Australia and Norway in the week ahead. Fed chair Jerome Powell has come under political pressure to be careful of putting U.S. jobs at risk by tightening policy too much. A consequential week for markets also includes Friday's October U.S. payrolls report, with economists polled by Reuters forecasting the economy created 200,000 new jobs. Inflation in the bloc is running at almost 10% and the European Central Bank just delivered its second 75 bps rate increase to control price pressures. Like other big central banks, the ECB is hoping for signs that peak inflation is coming.

☆ China equity selloff not on fundamentals, creates opportunity - JPM
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

A men wearing a mask walk at the Shanghai Stock Exchange building at the Pudong financial district in Shanghai, China, as the country is hit by an outbreak of a new coronavirus, February 3, 2020. REUTERS/Aly SongOct 24 (Reuters) - Monday's selloff in Chinese equities does not correspond with fundamentals and creates an opportunity for investors, analysts at JPMorgan said on Monday. "We believe this is a good opportunity to add given an expected growth recovery, gradual COVID reopening, and monetary and fiscal stimulus," wrote the bank's analysts in a strategy note, adding that growth data in China was a positive surprise over the weekend. Hong Kong stocks (.HSI) fell 6.4% on Monday while a Shanghai index (.SSEC) dropped 2% after Xi Jinping's newly unveiled leadership team heightened fears that economic growth will be sacrificed for ideology-driven policies. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Rodrigo CamposOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ IMF raises Latam 2022 growth forecasts; sees inflation dip in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The IMF lifted its growth estimate for this year to 3.5% from 3.0% forecast in July, while its projection for global output growth this year was unchanged at 3.2%. In the region, Brazil is seen growing 2.8% this year, a 1.1 percentage point increase from the July estimate, while Mexico is seen growing 0.3 percentage point slower at 2.1%. Globally, the figure dropped 0.2 percentage point to 2.7%. "However, growth in the region is expected to slow in late 2022 and 2023 as partner country growth weakens, financial conditions tighten, and commodity prices soften." The 2023 revision to the inflation forecasts for Latin America and the Caribbean, up by 2.2 percentage points, was the largest for any region.

Sri Lanka is struggling with its worst economic crisis in more than seven decades, which has led to shortages of essentials and the ouster of a president. BILATERAL DEBT TALKSSri Lanka also needs to renegotiate debt with bilateral creditors such as China, Japan and India. As a middle-income country, according to the World Bank, Sri Lanka is not able to engage in talks with bilateral creditors under the G20 common framework for debt treatments. Sri Lanka's total foreign currency debt of $38.7 billion amounts to 48.2% of GDP, the latest IMF report showed in March. The central bank governor said that the country has paid Sri Lanka Development Bonds in both dollar and local currency.

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