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☆ Asian Shares track Wall Street's inflation optimism, yen recoups losses
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Overnight on Wall Street, the S&P 500 (.SPX) rose 1.2%, while the Nasdaq (.IXIC) rallied 1.5% and Dow Jones (.DJI) was up 1.1%. Treasuries rallied a little, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year government bonds easing 2 basis points to 3.6940%. The two-year bond yields also eased from their three-month highs to hover at 4.5090%, compared with the previous close of 4.5340%. It weakened 0.2% against the Japanese yen to 132.13 yen, after gaining 0.8% the previous day. On Tuesday, the Japanese government is expected to name academic Kazuo Ueda as its pick to become next central bank governor.

☆ Yields are popping again. Here's how investors can take advantage of that, according to the pros
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( Weizhen Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

How can investors ride on higher yields? Buy high-quality or short-term fixed income BlackRock Investment Institute said it likes high-quality credit and short-end government bonds "as interest rates stay higher for longer." "Fixed income finally offers 'income' after yields surged globally. "We believe that investors should hold around 2% of cash in their portfolios and should use short-term fixed income (anything below a 2-year maturity) as a proxy for cash," Alvarado added. Wells Fargo Investment Institute's tactical portfolios are allocating between 2% (for "aggressive growth investors") and 17% (for conservative income investors) to short-term fixed income.

☆ Central banks are fighting a war on inflation. They're not done yet
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Julia Horowitz | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

London CNN —One of the main jobs of central banks is to keep prices under control, allowing households and businesses to plan for the future with some certainty on what things will cost. Tolga Akmen/EPA-EFE/ShutterstockPolicymakers face difficult questions about exactly when to pause interest rate hikes. The European Central Bank’s main rate is 2%, while the Bank of England’s is 3.5%. Still, investors are becoming increasingly confident that major central banks will change course soon. “Central banks are relatively close to the end,” Sels said.

☆ Wall Street 2023 Predictions Already Wrong: Recession, Inflation, China
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Linette Lopez | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +12 min

Across Wall Street, finance workers of all stripes are returning to work after skiing, gallivanting around the Caribbean, or just visiting Mom for the holiday season. Of course, there's some uncertainty in all this, and Wall Street could still be proved right. Already some Wall Street economists are revising their predictions given the strong economy, even if they're not backing off their priors quite yet. It may take years to get the Chinese consumer, on which Wall Street has placed so many hopes, back to the strength of yesteryear. Don't hatchet your chickens before they countTo be fair, not every Wall Street analyst is looking sheepish right now.

☆ Investors anxiously await jobs report for clues about Fed rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-05 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Traders are betting on a further deceleration in jobs growth because that could lead to a reduction in the size of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Further strength could set off more alarm bells about inflation and Fed rate hikes. Focus on worker payWall Street will also need to dive even deeper into Friday’s jobs report to get a better sense of what’s happening in the economy. Investors cheered the fact that wage growth, measured by average hourly earnings, rose only 4.7% over the previous 12 months in October. Big Tech keeps handing out pink slipsOverall, the jobs market is still in good shape.

☆ Analysis: Investors count on bonds to rescue battered 60/40 portfolio in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A 60/40 portfolio, which typically allocates 60% of assets into stocks and 40% into bonds, counts on moves in the two asset classes to offset one another, with stocks strengthening amid economic optimism and bonds rising during uncertain times. So-called 60/40 portfolios, which mix stocks and bonds, are on place for their first down year since 2018. Though market participants tend to avoid bonds during inflationary times, they are a popular destination for haven-seeking investors when the economy wobbles. Consecutive annual declines in the 60/40 portfolio have been rare. Higher-than-expected borrowing costs or rebounding inflation could deal another blow to investors in both stocks and bonds.

While governments worldwide are grappling with high inflation and low growth, UK policymakers are still rebuilding fiscal and political credibility following the brief, chaotic premiership of Liz Truss. Worries about growth are leading some investors to limit their holdings of the pound and British debt. Reuters GraphicsForeign investors have traditionally been attracted by Britain's strong rule of law, stable governance and thriving financial and professional services sector. In the latest data, up to the second quarter of this year, FDI represented more than half the net outflow - a result of strong UK investment abroad but weak inward investment too. Stephen Welton, executive chairman of major growth capital investor BGF, said attracting foreign investment was like a global competitive sport - one that Britain had previously excelled at.

☆ VIEW Bank of England raises rates to 3.5%, says inflation has peaked
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

LONDON, Dec 15 (Reuters) - The Bank of England on Thursday raised interest rates by a widely expected 50 basis points (bps) to 3.50%, in its ninth straight increase - and its eighth this year. UK rates began rising in December 2021, making the BoE the first of the world's major central banks to kick off a monetary policy-tightening cycle. MONEY MARKETS: Interest rate swaps showed investors expected rates to peak at 4.46% by next August, compared with an anticipated terminal rate of 4.53% just before the decision. Their own numbers have been pointing to a recession for a little while, and they've still materially hiked interest rates. EDWARD HUTCHINGS, HEAD OF RATES, AVIVA INVESTORS, LONDON:"The Bank of England duly delivered on financial markets expectations of a 0.50% hike.

☆ Meet the small hedge fund that thinks it can oust Larry Fink from BlackRock
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( Rebecca Ungarino | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The fund has a tiny stake in BlackRock and is calling for the firm to replace Larry Fink as CEO. On one side stands a small, relatively unknown activist hedge fund with a tiny stake in a giant company. 1, the young hedge fund run by a longtime activist investor, and ExxonMobil. Joining a wave of heavy scrutiny of BlackRock and Fink over ESG, Bluebell accused BlackRock of a hypocritical posture toward sustainable investing, according to the letter, which was viewed by Insider. Bloomberg News ran the headline: "Tiny Activist Bluebell Quickly Becomes CEOs' Worst Nightmare."

☆ Blackrock says calls for increased overweight in inflation-linked bonds
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

Dec 7 (Reuters) - Asset manager Blackrock on Wednesday said that a new regime of greater macroeconomic and market volatility means that investors should demand more compensation for taking the same levels of risk and should increase their strategic allocations in inflation-linked bonds, high yield and investment grade credit. A week after it released its 2023 global outlook, the Blackrock Investment Institute said in a note that the new regime calls for a larger overweight position in inflation linked bonds, and suggested moves to overweight in developed market high-yield and global investment grade credit, from underweights. It also called for a smaller overweight in developed market equities. Reporting by Alden Bentley, Editing by Louise HeavensOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

It's time to rethink bonds, according to the BlackRock Investment Institute, which said "the lure of fixed income is strong" right now. The research arm of BlackRock , one of the world's largest asset managers, urged investors to favor investment-grade bonds, short-term government debt and inflation-linked bonds amid recession fears and higher-for-longer inflation. "Higher yields are a gift to investors who have long been starved for income. "Investors also will increasingly ask for more compensation to hold long-term government bonds — or term premium — amid high debt levels, rising supply and rising inflation." The BlackRock Investment Institute has raised its overweight position on investment-grade credit, but remains underweight on long-term government bonds.

☆ Activist investor calls for BlackRock CEO Fink to step down over ESG ‘hypocrisy’
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Larry Fink, Chairman and C.E.O. of BlackRock arrives at the DealBook Summit in New York City, November 30, 2022. David Dee Delgado | ReutersLONDON — BlackRock CEO Larry Fink is facing calls to step down from activist investor Bluebell Capital over the company's alleged "hypocrisy" on its environmental, social and governance (ESG) messaging. However, in a letter to Fink dated Nov. 10, shareholder Bluebell expressed concern about the "reputational risk (including greenwashing risk) to which BlackRock under the leadership of Larry Fink have unreasonably exposed the company." The company remains a major shareholder in the likes of Glencore and "coal intensive miners" Exxaro, Peabody and Whitehaven, Bivaro's letter to Fink on Nov. 10 noted.

☆ Wall Street Week Ahead: Wall Street hunts for recession plays to weather potential 2023 turbulence
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

JPMorgan, Citi and BlackRock are among those who believe a recession is likely in 2023. Nevertheless, many on Wall Street are increasing allocations to areas of the market that have a reputation for outperforming during uncertain economic times. The S&P 500 Health Care sector is down around 1.7% year-to-date, handily beating the broader index's performance. JPMorgan's analysts forecast a "mild recession" and expect the S&P 500 to test its 2022 lows in the first quarter of next year. Signs of ebbing inflation have fueled hopes that the Fed may tighten monetary policy less than expected, supporting a rebound in the S&P 500 that has buoyed the index from its October low.

☆ BLACKROCK: Here's how to survive a market that's underestimating the damage from a recession, and profit on the other side
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( Marley Jay | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Stock market investors haven't priced in a recession yet, according to BlackRock. The firm says investors are too hopeful about future rate cuts and aren't ready for falling profits. The firm's playbook lays out a multi-asset strategy for before and after an expected recession. The other — based on BlackRock's view that a recession is coming — is how much "economic damage" is reflected in asset prices. "We find that earnings expectations don't yet price in even a mild recession," according to a recent report from the BlackRock Investment Institute.

The S&P 500 is down 14.4% year-to-date. U.S. consumer prices rose less than expected in October, supporting the view that inflation was ebbing. Further ahead, some of Wall Street’s biggest banks are now forecasting that the Fed's monetary policy tightening will bring on a recession next year. In options markets, traders appear more preoccupied with not missing out on more gains in stocks than guarding against future declines. The one-month moving average of daily trading in bearish put contracts against bullish calls on the S&P 500 index-tracking SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust's options is at its lowest since January 2022, according to Trade Alert data.

☆ BlackRock backs banks, cuts European, EM debt as part of "new playbook"
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

LONDON, Nov 30 (Reuters) - Asset manager BlackRock has said 2023 will require a new investment playbook, backing banks and energy sectors to do well while slapping 'underweights' on longer-term European government bonds and emerging market local currency debt. The BlackRock Investment Institute (BII) said in its 2023 global outlook that while the case for investment credit has brightened and short-term government debt yields looked attractive, the pressures of higher interest rates would weigh on longer-term sovereign bonds. "The macro damage we expect for next year is yet to be fully reflected in market pricing" said Wei Li, global chief investment strategist at the BII. Reporting by Marc Jones and Davide Barcuscia, editing by Karin StroheckerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

And for financial markets it begs the question as to whether the extent of the monetary or fiscal tightening currently assumed will ever actually happen. The OBR reckons UK consumer price inflation has now peaked and will back off to a full-year rate of 7.4% next year. But assuming standing market forecasts for energy prices and BoE rates, it then sees inflation fall below zero for eight quarters from the middle of 2024. The BoE also expects headline inflation to plummet into 2024 - and its 'fan chart' of the range of possible outcomes also has an outside chance of deflation then too. Delaying spending cuts until after an election won't help much in that regard if indeed they're seen necessary at all.

REUTERS/Ricardo Moraes/File Photo/File PhotoLONDON, Nov 2 (Reuters) - The pace and scale of rate hikes delivered by central banks around the globe in October slowed down dramatically following September's historic peak. The latest moves have brought total rate hikes in 2022 from G10 central banks to 2,050 bps. Emerging markets interest ratesMarkets had recently taken heart from indications that rate hikes from major central banks - especially the U.S. Federal Reserve - were slowing down. "We see central banks on a path to overtighten policy," said Boivin on Monday in a weekly outlook note from the world's largest asset manager. "We think the Fed, like other developed market central banks, will only stop when the severe damage from rate hikes is clearer.

☆ Morning Bid: Trick or treat?
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets fromAnshuman DagaThere's a sense of cheer among investors before the Fed's mid-week rate decision as markets seem to be pricing in an expected treat from the U.S. central bank. Risk-on appetite is gradually coming back as global stocks flirt with their strongest levels in just over a month while the mighty dollar slips from a one-week high. The Fed is set to raise rates by 75 basis points for the fourth straight time, bringing the target overnight lending rate to a 3.75%-4.00% range. Analysts at BlackRock Investment Institute are, however, still underweight on stocks as they see central banks on a path to overtighten policy. Down Under, the Reserve Bank of Australia stuck with a 25 basis points rate hike as widely expected, while revising up its inflation outlook.

☆ Taking cover in bonds ahead of a recession? BlackRock says that's now an 'obsolete' strategy
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( Weizhen Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

One important part of the recession playbook is "obsolete" — and that's seeking shelter in bonds, according to BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager. "We're underweight government bonds because yields have room to move higher, and we don't think they can be a safe haven when recession comes," BlackRock wrote. Higher rates and inflation will create a "ripe environment" for investors to demand higher term premiums for long-term bonds, BlackRock said. The move sent financial markets into a tailspin , as investors ditched U.K. bonds and sold off the pound. What to buy Investors still looking to buy bonds should prefer inflation-linked ones as they are "not pricing in persistent inflation," BlackRock said.

☆ Government bonds no safe haven in central bank-driven recession -BlackRock
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-17 | by ( Davide Barbuscia | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

NEW YORK, Oct 17 (Reuters) - Government bonds may not offer much protection in a recession if surging inflation pressures central banks to continue tightening monetary policy, the BlackRock Investment Institute said. Risks of a global recession have increased as central banks around the world tighten monetary policy to bring down consumer prices. While central banks have typically eased monetary policy to boost economies when they showed signs of contraction, "That era is over. Now central banks are set to induce recessions by over-tightening policy," BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, said. BlackRock expects the correlation between bonds and stocks to remain positive, meaning bonds will unlikely protect investors from falls in stocks valuations.

Leopatrizi | E+ | Getty ImagesAs part of President Joe Biden's historic student loan forgiveness plan, up to 8 million people could get automatic debt relief, according to the White House. Those who will get automatic loan cancellation are those for whom the U.S. Department of Education already has income data on file and can therefore verify eligibility without waiting for an application. Who qualifies for the automatic loan cancellation? Review your recent tax returns to confirm your income fell below those thresholds in 2020 or 2021 (either will work). The Education Department will be considering people's so-called adjusted gross income, or AGI, which may be different than your gross salary.

With ongoing stock market volatility, high inflation and interest rate hikes, many wonder if we're heading for a prolonged economic downturn. "I think we have to be defensive," said certified financial planner Ivory Johnson, founder of Delancey Wealth Management in Washington, D.C. While it's impossible to predict exactly what will happen, financial advisors are preparing clients for whatever may be on the horizon. But Johnson has already warned clients about the possibility of more volatility, pointing to the Fed's rate hikes. There may be 'good opportunities'While Baker doesn't suggest major changes, there may be "good opportunities" — such as real estate — amid relatively high inflation due to yield and appreciation, he said.

☆ BlackRock says it's time to 'shun most stocks' with markets underestimating the risk of a Fed-induced recession
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-27 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed and other central banks have underestimated the severity of the recession that their rate hikes could trigger, the asset manager said. But Boivin's team said that the Fed's cheerful economic projections overestimate the likelihood of a soft landing. "This soft landing doesn't add up to us," Boivin's team said. The global "rate-hike blitz" suggests that other central bankers share the Fed's optimistic outlook, according to Boivin's team. BlackRock warned that aggressive overtightening could trigger a downturn before inflation has cooled sufficiently, leaving central banks torn between raising and slashing rates.

☆ Market rout has muni bonds looking attractive. How to add them to your portfolio
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-25 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

"Uncertainty around how high interest rates will go has driven redemptions in muni bond funds," he explained. Whenever we have a chance to add to muni bonds now, we do so." For instance, you can go to Fidelity Investments' website and access more than 50,000 municipal bonds as new issues or through dealers on the secondary market. Here are five Morningstar five-star rated muni bond funds. "Many closed-end bond funds are trading at prices that are below their net asset value," he said.

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