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☆ Dollar tentative, kiwi jumps as New Zealand inflation data tempers rate doves
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

English, American and New Zealand currency around a paper map of the world. The dollar held just above an over one-year low on Wednesday as traders assessed the U.S. rate outlook, while the New Zealand dollar spiked briefly after a higher-than-expected inflation reading pushed back prospects of policy easing further out. Sterling bought $1.3035, ahead of U.K. inflation data due later on Wednesday. "The stickiness of U.K. inflation measures has contrasted notably with price measures in both the euro zone and the U.S. which have been moving lower," said Rabobank's head of FX strategy Jane Foley. "While inflation is 'lower', it is not 'low' by any stretch of the imagination.

Persons: Tina Teng, Klaas, Sterling, Jane Foley, Satish Ranchhod, Kazuo Ueda Organizations: New Zealand, U.S ., U.S, CMC Markets, Reuters, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, ECB, Bank of, Reserve Bank of New, Westpac, Australian, Bank of Japan Locations: Zealand, Asia, U.S, Bank of England, New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Zealand

☆ Morning Bid: Dollar swoons in upbeat inflation vigil
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanWorld markets leaned positively into another critical U.S. inflation report later on Wednesday, seeding a dollar (.DXY) slide to two-month lows that's revved-up yen and sterling gains. And June's CPI readout should be a marker if the consensus forecast for almost a full percentage-point drop in the headline inflation rate to two year lows of just 3.1% is borne out. Still, encouraged by a screed of other positive disinflation signals this week, U.S. markets are relatively buoyant going into the release and still feel the end of the Fed rate rise campaign is nigh. UK bank stocks pushed higher on the rates view and a relatively clean bill of health from Wednesday's financial stability report from the BOE. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand paused its long-running rate rise campaign early on Tuesday.

Persons: Mike Dolan, BOE, Thomas Barkin, Raphael Bostic, Neel Kashkari, Loretta Mester, Joe Biden, Nick Macfie Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, yearend, Treasury, Bank of Japan, Bank of, recoiling, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Bank of Canada, Japan's Nikkei, Microsoft, Activision, Richmond Federal, Atlanta Fed, Minneapolis Fed, Cleveland Fed, NATO, . Treasury, Reuters, Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: U.S, Asia, Shanghai, Hong Kong, British, Vilnius

☆ Dollar slides ahead of U.S. inflation data, sterling hits 15-month peak
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

An old British £1 note is pictured with a one Dollar bill note on January 07, 2023 in Bath, England. U.S. inflation data is due later on Wednesday, with expectations core consumer prices rose 5% on an annual basis in June. The figures should also provide further clarity on the Federal Reserve's progress in its fight against inflation. "We're already seeing markets move in anticipation of a softer U.S. inflation report," said Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index. "Speculation of a possible tweak could allow the yen some support ahead of the BOJ meeting this month."

Persons: BoE, Matt Simpson, Simpson, YCC, Jane Foley, that's, Susan Kilsby Organizations: Bank of England, U.S ., Fed, Bank of Japan, Rabobank, New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New, ANZ Locations: Bath, England, U.S, Tuesday's, Asia, Reserve Bank of New Zealand

☆ Dollar slumps ahead of US inflation data, sterling rises
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"The (RBNZ) statement and minutes retained their dovish undertone overall, but they can't not warn that inflation is still 'too high' as they need to contain inflation expectations," said Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index. The broader market focus remained on U.S. inflation data due later on Wednesday, with expectations for core consumer prices to have risen 5% on an annual basis in June. "We're already seeing markets move in anticipation of a softer U.S. inflation report," said City Index's Simpson. U.S. Treasury yields came under pressure on Wednesday, with the two-year yield and benchmark 10-year yield settling below 5% and 4%, respectively. "Speculation of a possible tweak could allow the (yen) some support ahead of the BOJ meeting this month."

Persons: BoE, Matt Simpson, we've, Index's Simpson, Sterling, YCC, Jane Foley, Rae Wee, Jamie Freed, Edmund Klamann Organizations: Bank of England, New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, U.S ., Fed, BoE . U.S, Treasury, Bank of Japan, Rabobank, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, U.S, Asia, BoE .

[1/2] U.S. dollars are counted out by a banker counting currency at a bank in Westminster, Colorado November 3, 2009. Markets are now focusing their attention on U.S. consumer prices data due out on Wednesday, which will provide more clarity on the progress the Fed has made in its fight against stubbornly high inflation. The pound has been rallying on a stronger economy and aggressive repricing of expectations for tighter BoE policy, according to Danske Bank FX analyst Kirstine Kundby-Nielsen. "There have been no signs of relief in the labour market data and markets continue to price in more. Given the rising inflation backdrop in Japan, the market is starting to become more wary that perhaps a policy tweak could come."

Persons: Rick Wilking, Shaun Osborne, Kirstine Kundby, That's, Kundby, Nielsen, Moh Siong Sim, Samuel Indyk, Rae Wee, Edmund Klamann, Alex Richardson, Chizu Organizations: REUTERS, Federal, Scotiabank . Markets, Sterling, Bank of England, Danske Bank, Nielsen, Swiss, greenback, Swiss National Bank, Singapore, Bank of Japan, New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New, Thomson Locations: Westminster , Colorado, U.S, Norwegian, Swedish, Swiss, Japan, Reserve Bank of New Zealand

July 12 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. Figures on Tuesday showed surprisingly strong bank lending in June, helped by central bank efforts to support an economy that has struggled to rebound from pandemic restrictions as expected. On a macro level, the U.S. dollar's weakness continues to help fuel the optimism across Asian markets. New Zealand's central bank is expected to keep its cash rate - already at a 14-year high and the highest in the developed world - at 5.50% on Wednesday and leave it there for the rest of the year. But with inflation running well above target, rates markets are leaning toward one more 25 basis point hike by year end.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, Goldman Sachs, Foxconn, Deepa Babington Organizations: Reserve Bank of New, Global, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Asia, U.S, China, Japan, New, Zealand, India

☆ New Zealand central bank to hold rates in July and for rest of 2023: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( Devayani Sathyan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The economy is forecast to weaken further as the impact of 525 basis points of RBNZ rate rises becomes more visible. All 25 economists polled by Reuters July 3-6 expected the RBNZ to hold the official cash rate (OCR) (NZINTR=ECI) at 5.50% on July 12. It would be the first time the RBNZ has not raised rates at a policy meeting in nearly two years. The central bank raised rates in May but signalled it was done tightening. Over 90% of economists pollled, 23 of 24, did not predict any changes to rates this quarter.

Persons: Jarrod Kerr, pollled, Nick Tuffley, Devayani Sathyan, Susobhan Sarkar, Hari Kishan, Ross Finley, Kim Coghill Organizations: Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Reuters, ANZ, ASB, Bank of New, Kiwibank, Westpac, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, Bank of New Zealand

☆ New Zealand central bank to hold rates in July and for rest of 2023, Reuters poll shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( Devayani Sathyan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The economy is forecast to weaken further as the impact of 525 basis points of RBNZ rate rises becomes more visible. All 25 economists polled by Reuters July 3-6 expected the RBNZ to hold the official cash rate (OCR) (NZINTR=ECI) at 5.50% on July 12. It would be the first time the RBNZ has not raised rates at a policy meeting in nearly two years. The central bank raised rates last month but signalled it was done tightening. Over 90% of economists pollled, 23 of 24, did not predict any changes to rates this quarter.

☆ New Zealand slips into recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( Lucy Craymer | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

With two quarters of negative growth, the country is now in a technical recession. Annual growth slowed to 2.2%, Statistics New Zealand data showed. The weakness in the economy will not be seen as a negative by the central bank, which has said it needs economic growth to slow to dampen inflation and inflation expectations. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has undertaken its most aggressive policy tightening since 1999, when the official cash rate was introduced, lifting it by 525 basis points since October 2021 to 5.50%. Before the first-quarter GDP figures were released, the central bank had forecast the country would enter a recession in the second quarter of 2023, while Treasury's updated forecasts in May expected the country to avoid recession.

Persons: Gabrielle, Jason Attewell, Lucy Craymer, Sonali Paul Organizations: Statistics, Cyclones, Statistics New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New, Thomson Locations: Statistics New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Zealand

☆ Major central banks not done with rate hikes just yet
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

[1/2] A view shows the logo of the European Central Bank (ECB) outside its headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany March 16, 2023. Fed policymakers paused on its rate hikes since March 2022, and kept the federal funds target rate unchanged at 5.25%, its highest level since August 2007. Reuters Graphics5) AUSTRALIAAustralia's central bank raised its benchmark rate by a quarter-point on June 6 to an 11-year high of 4.1%. It expects inflation to stay above its 2% target through 2025 and hinted at more rate hikes ahead. Reuters Graphics10) JAPANThe Bank of Japan remains the world's most dovish major central bank under new Governor Kazuo Ueda.

Persons: Heiko Becker, Jerome Powell, BoE, Christine Lagarde, Thomas Jordan, Kazuo Ueda, Samuel Indyk, Nell Mackenzie, Alun John, Naomi Rovnick, Harry Robertson, Chiara Elisei, Vincent Flasseur, Sumanta Sen, Pasit, Dhara Ransinghe, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: European Central Bank, REUTERS, Heiko Becker LONDON, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Reuters, Reserve Bank of New, UNITED, Fed, Bank of Canada, BRITAIN, Bank of, ECB, Norges Bank, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Swiss National Bank, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Canada, Japan, dovish, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, U.S, Bank of England, AUSTRALIA, SWEDEN, NORWAY, SWITZERLAND, JAPAN

☆ New Zealand's economy likely in recession as rate hikes take hold
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Lucy Craymer | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

WELLINGTON, June 13 (Reuters) - The New Zealand central bank’s aggressive hiking of the cash rate likely pushed the country into a technical recession in the first quarter, a Reuters poll found, giving traction to the idea the cash rate may have peaked. This would mean the country moved into a technical recession - two consecutive quarters of negative growth - after the economy contracted by 0.6% in the fourth quarter. New Zealand's central bank last month signalled it was done tightening after raising rates by 25 basis points to the highest in more than 14-years at 5.5%, ending its most aggressive hiking cycle since 1999. Yet a handful of economists think the boost to the economy from historically high migration and the return of tourism might force the central bank to do more. He said he expects the next cash rate move to be a cut.

Persons: ”, Jarrod Kerr, Cyclone Gabrielle, Brad Olsen, Lucy Craymer, Lincoln Organizations: Gross, Reserve Bank of New, “, Treasury, Reserve Bank, Zealand, Thomson Locations: Zealand, Auckland

Monetary policy meetings of the Fed, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will set the tone for the week as markets seek clues from policymakers on the future path of interest rates. U.S. May inflation data is also out on Tuesday as the Fed kicks off its two-day meeting. "We are pretty much with consensus, expecting the Fed to stay put this week and a 25 basis point hike from the ECB," Nordea's Christensen said. The U.S. dollar index clocked a loss of nearly 0.5% last week, its worst weekly drop since mid-April, and was last down 0.1% at 103.43. The euro rose 0.2% to $1.0768, having risen 0.4% last week, its first weekly gain in roughly a month.

Persons: Niels Christensen, Nordea's Christensen, " Christensen, Goldman Sachs, Samuel Indyk, Rae Wee, Simon Cameron, Moore, Angus MacSwan Organizations: Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Fed, ECB, Reuters, U.S, Reserve Bank of New, People's Bank of, Thomson Locations: Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Australia, People's Bank of China

☆ Dollar steady, with Fed pause eyed in busy c.bank week
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-12 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Policy meetings of the Fed, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will set the tone for the week, as markets seek clues from policymakers on the future path of interest rates. The U.S. dollar index clocked a loss of nearly 0.5% last week, its worst weekly drop since mid-April, and was last marginally higher at 103.58. The euro slipped 0.02% to $1.0744 in early Asia trade, after having risen 0.4% last week, its first weekly gain in roughly a month. "Central banks have raised rates aggressively over the past 12-15 months and given the lagged effects with which monetary policy affects demand, are central banks teeing up for a pause, following the RBNZ's example?" "We change our BOJ call to no YCC revision at this week's meeting," said Societe Generale's Jin Kenzaki, referring to the central bank's controversial yield curve control policy.

Persons: Alvin Tan, Jin Kenzaki, Rae Wee, Muralikumar Organizations: European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Asia FX, RBC Capital Markets, Money, U.S, Reuters, ECB, ANZ, Reserve Bank of New, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, Australia, Reserve Bank of New Zealand

☆ Dollar steady, with Fed pause eyed in busy central bank week
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Policy meetings of the Fed, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan will set the tone for the week, as markets seek clues from policymakers on the future path of interest rates. The U.S. dollar index clocked a loss of nearly 0.5% last week, its worst weekly drop since mid-April, and was last marginally higher at 103.58. "Outside of the decisions that the central banks make at this meeting, what will be of particular interest is their forward guidance," economists at ANZ wrote in a note. "Central banks have raised rates aggressively over the past 12-15 months and given the lagged effects with which monetary policy affects demand, are central banks teeing up for a pause, following the RBNZ's example?" "We change our BOJ call to no YCC revision at this week's meeting," said Societe Generale's Jin Kenzaki, referring to the central bank's controversial yield curve control policy.

Persons: Alvin Tan, Jin Kenzaki Organizations: European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Asia FX, RBC Capital Markets, Money, U.S, Reuters, ECB, ANZ, Reserve Bank of New Locations: Asia, Australia, Reserve Bank of New Zealand

☆ What’s the Right Inflation Target for the American Economy? - The New York Times
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Will it get us all the way back to the Federal Reserve’s target of 2 percent inflation? My inbox is filled with confident pronouncements that inflation will soon fade away and equally confident pronouncements that getting back to 2 percent will require a recession and a period of much higher unemployment. But I am worried that we’ve seen the easy part — and that getting inflation down from 3 to 2 might be a lot harder than getting it down from 10 to 3. The history of 2 percent is actually quite strange, and there’s a pretty good case for a higher target. In 1990 the bank set an inflation target of 1 percent to 3 percent, which was gradually emulated by many other countries.

Persons: we’ve Organizations: Reserve Bank of New Locations: Reserve Bank of New Zealand

☆ NZ central bank to hike by 25 bps, risk grows of higher peak for rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( Lucy Craymer | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Yet, while back in February the RBNZ forecast the cash rate would peak at 5.5%, a growing minority of economists expect a further tightening is possible in July. Four economists in a Reuters poll of 21 economists now expect the cash rate to reach 5.75 or higher. Fourteen expect rates to hold at 5.50% next quarter. After the April surprise, markets remain wary of another outsized 50-basis-point rate hike this week. The money market is now pricing 39 basis points of hikes, up from 20 basis points last week.

May 22 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever. The People's Bank of China is expected to keep key lending rates on hold on Monday, as traders in Asia digest the implications of the G7's stance on China and the tense and fluid situation in Washington regarding the U.S. debt ceiling standoff. In their joint communique on Saturday, G7 leaders said they are looking to "de-risk, not decouple" economic engagement with China. Wider market sentiment on Monday could be set by the mood music in Washington around the debt ceiling. On the other hand, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen reiterated that June 1 remains a "hard deadline" for raising the debt ceiling.

☆ Take Five: More drama on the horizon
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

LONDON, May 19 (Reuters) - There's no shortage of events, data and high drama for markets in the days ahead. 1/ USA WATCHCritical U.S. inflation data will allow investors to gauge whether the Federal Reserve will be able to pause its interest rate hiking cycle, as many on Wall Street expect. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, tracked by the Fed, is due on Friday for April. That was the smallest rise since July and, with the consumer price index slowing in April to below 5% on annual basis, hope for peak rates has grown. Yet this narrative could lose steam if Wednesday's April inflation data shows price rises are moderating.

☆ New Zealand's finance chief denies pandering to voters' cost-of-living concerns
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Clement Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

New Zealand's finance minister has denied the country's new budget is aimed at placating voters ahead of the country's next general election in October. Asked if the budget was short-term thinking to spend and worry about inflation and high deficits later, Grant Robertson replied: "On no, we're absolutely doing both of those things at the same time." New Zealand is also not projected to return to surplus until 2025-2026, a year later than previously forecast. The Treasury sees inflation slowing to 3.3% by mid-2024, from the current blistering 6.7% pace. "We very much had in mind to making sure that this budget contributed to inflation coming down."

☆ NZ sees bigger deficit as economy sputters, spending boost to fan inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Lucy Craymer | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

FILE PHOTO: New Zealand's finance minister, Grant Robertson, speaks about the "wellbeing" budget in Wellington, New Zealand, May 30, 2019. That has heaped pressure on New Zealand’s finances, as the government has had to navigate many challenges including three-decade high inflation, sharply rising borrowing costs, a stuttering economy and falling tax revenue. However, Treasury sees inflation slowing to 3.3% by mid-2024, from the current blistering 6.7% pace, levels not seen since the early 1990s. Much of the worsening in the accounts is due to falling tax revenue as the economy slows. S&P Global Ratings retained New Zealand’s AAA ratings, but warned of pressure ahead.

☆ New Zealand set to reveal bigger deficit in 'no frills' 2023-24 budget
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Lucy Craymer | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

WELLINGTON, May 16 (Reuters) - New Zealand Labour government is set to reveal a worse budget bottom line and economic outlook on Thursday as it delivers what it calls a “no frills” 2023-24 budget to avoid fuelling inflation. Since coming into power, Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has cut costly programmes and reiterated the government’s plans to return to “bread and butter issues”. They’ll see that’s what we’ve done in the budget,” Hipkins said at his weekly Monday press conference. The country was hit by two significant weather events at the start of the year that caused an estimated NZ$9 billion and NZ$14.5 billion in damage. “The Budget packages will likely be more targeted, appearing more fiscally responsible and prudent,” Smith added.

☆ RBNZ proposes collecting more financial entity data on cyber incidents
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

WELLINGTON, May 8 (Reuters) - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is proposing collecting financial entity data on cyber incidents to better understand cyber risks and resilience in the financial sector, it said in a statement on Monday. The central bank said it is proposing introducing mandatory reporting of material cyber incidents with 72 hours of detection, reporting of all cyber incidents periodically even if they are not material, and a regular survey on cyber resilience. The central bank is currently seeking feedback on the proposal before deciding whether to implement the new rules. RBNZ Director of Prudential Policy Kate Le Quesne said collection of this information will improve the bank's understanding of cyber resilience in the financial sector. Reporting by Lucy Craymer; Editing by Christopher CushingOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Currencies in limbo awaiting packed week of central banks
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SYDNEY, May 1 (Reuters) - Currencies were in limbo on Monday as holidays in most of Asia made for thin trading, while traders braced for a packed week of central bank meetings that would offer the latest guidance on future rate hikes across continents. Activity in the foreign exchange markets was subdued due to the Labour Day holidays in Singapore, Hong Kong and mainland China. The Japanese yen slid 0.2% to 136.67 per dollar on Monday, extending its post-BOJ slump. The currency fell 1.1% last week to a seven-week low of $0.6573, but has found strong support at the March trough of $0.6564. The New Zealand dollar lost 0.3% to $0.6172, giving back some of the impressive rally last week.

☆ We're negative on the Canadian dollar and New Zealand dollar, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe're negative on the Canadian dollar and New Zealand dollar, strategist saysGareth Berry of Macquarie Group says it expects the Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to be the first two developed market central banks to cut interest rates before year-end, "before the rest of the pack."

April 6 (Reuters) - There will be no Asia Morning Bid on Friday, April 7. Chinese services PMI and Australian trade figures are also on the docket Thursday, while remarks from Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe on could shed further light on the RBA's outlook following Tuesday's policy decision. chartIt's a difficult one to call, and after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's hawkish surprise on Wednesday, investors would do well to be humble in their predictions. Wall Street is finally buckling, rates markets are now gunning for almost 100 basis points of Fed rate cuts this year and the dollar is sagging. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

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