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☆ Trump's proposed tariffs would be 'recessionary' and could spark a resurgence in inflation, Harvard economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-14 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Trump's trade policies would be "recessionary" and could make inflation worse, according to Kenneth Rogoff. The Harvard economist pointed to Trump's proposed tariffs on imports, including a 60% tariff on Chinese goods. AdvertisementDonald Trump's proposed tariffs on imports would have "recessionary" effects on the US economy and could end up sending inflation higher again, according to top economist Kenneth Rogoff. Rogoff said that Trump's proposed policies and Joe Biden's Inflation Reduction Act make them both the "most protectionist" presidential candidates the US has seen in a while, Rogoff said to Bloomberg on Wednesday. That could hamper economic growth and stoke inflation, making Trump one of the biggest threats to the global economy, "Dr. Doom" economist Nouriel Roubini recently argued.

Persons: Kenneth Rogoff, —, Donald Trump's, Rogoff, Trump's, Joe Biden's, Doom, Nouriel Roubini, Biden, Donald Trump, overspending Organizations: Harvard, Bloomberg, Service, International Monetary, stoke, Trump, Bank of America, Project Syndicate Locations: China, stoke, Washington, Japan

☆ Layoffs could be coming as debt-laden firms navigate the pain of higher rates, economists say
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-12 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

That's because aggressive Fed rate hikes haven't been fully felt across the economy. AdvertisementA wave of layoffs could be coming as companies deal with the reality of higher interest rates, economists say. The peak unemployment rate during the Great Recession was 10% in 2009. Following revisions to the prior two months' figures, the unemployment rate also rose to 3.9% in February, its highest level in two years. The unemployment rate is a classic lagging indicator."

Persons: David Rosenberg, —, what's, Steve Briggs, Briggs, Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, Briggs, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Fitch

☆ Stocks with high dividend growth and free cash flow perform best whatever the weather, Wolfe says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-06 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Stocks that offer high dividend growth and high free cash flow perform best no matter the economic weather, according to Wolfe Research. Here are a few stocks that fit the bill, according to Senyek: Online marketplace eBay was one of several stocks that Wolfe singled out. With its 4% yield, CVS is also a good buy for investors focusing on a high-dividend growth, high free cash flow strategy, Wolfe said. Following CVS' earnings release, investment bank Leerink initiated research coverage of the stock with an outperform rating , citing its cash potential. Other stocks Wolfe included on its list were Constellation Energy , Humana and Archer-Daniels-Midland .

Persons: Chris Senyek, Wolfe, UnitedHealth, Andrew Mok, Tom Cowhey, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Wolfe Research, eBay, Barclays, Medicare, CVS, Constellation Energy, Humana, Archer, Daniels, Midland

☆ The 'best' investment right now: Fund manager picks stocks with almost 15% total returns
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-26 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Shares of oil giants and European infrastructure companies can act as a hedge against inflation while also delivering strong annual growth, according to fund manager Freddie Lait. Lait manages two funds — the Latitude Horizon Fund and the Latitude Global Fund — with more than $750 million of assets collectively and holds all three stocks in both funds. BP SHEL 1Y line The fund manager explained that with oil currently around $85 per barrel, and his assumption of $70-75 long-term, his oil and gas stock picks can generate nearly double-digit annual returns for shareholders. 'Phenomenally interesting' stock Beyond energy names, Lait said his favorite inflation-linked stock is Vinci which he described as "phenomenally interesting." The company operates a mix of toll roads and civil engineering projects with long-term inflation adjustment mechanisms.

Persons: Freddie Lait, Lait, Vinci, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Latitude Investment Management, Shell, CNBC Pro, International Energy Agency, London Gatwick, Atlantic City International, Vinci Locations: Saudi Arabia's, Aramco, Burbank, United States

☆ Steep rate cuts are coming as the job market looks poised to weaken, Wells Fargo strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-20 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Read previewSteep rate cuts from the Federal Reserve could be coming later this year thanks to weakening in the job market, which likely isn't as robust as some of the latest data has made it out to be, according to Wells Fargo strategist Erik Nelson. Advertisement"We need a catalyst, we need some data that shows these recent, strong data were just a blip. But much of that strength may be seasonal and no longer reflected in upcoming job reports, Nelson said. Other market commentators have warned that hiring activity could weaken in 2024 as tighter financial conditions take a toll on businesses. Though the jobless rate is low, continuing unemployment claims are hovering around 1.9 million, according to Fed data.

Persons: —, Wells, Erik Nelson, Nelson, Paul Dietrich Organizations: Service, Federal, Bloomberg, Business, Fed, New York Fed, Yale School of Management

☆ The Fed has a very strong case to keep rates higher for longer
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-17 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Yet Jerome Powell and his central bank colleagues have rebuffed those forecasts, and markets have pushed their rate cut predictions further into 2024. And the producer price index for January came in at 0.3% on Friday, higher than the expected 0.1% increase. Jimmy Chang, the chief investment officer for Rockefeller Global Family Office, told Business Insider that it would be difficult for the Fed to cut rates in the current landscape. AdvertisementThe Fed's next moveThe case for keeping rates unchanged has gained momentum over recent weeks, but both markets and the Fed ultimately expect easing interest rates in 2024. Bank of America forecasts that the first cut likely won't happen until June, and policymakers could opt to cut rates "later and faster."

Persons: Jerome Powell, Nonfarm payrolls, Mary Daly, agilely, Joe Seydl, Seydl, Jimmy Chang, Chang, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, Jay Woods, We're, Woods, Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Atlanta Fed, San Francisco Fed, JPMorgan Private Bank, Rockefeller Global Family Office, Fed, Chicago Fed, Council, Foreign Relations, Freedom Capital Markets, Bank of America

NEW YORK (AP) — As some of the world’s biggest economies stumble into recession, the United States keeps chugging along. Yet in the United States, the economy motored ahead in last year’s fourth quarter for a sixth straight quarter of growth. But, for now, the outlook continues to appear better for the United States than many other big economies. Even China, whose economy is growing faster than the United States’, is under heavy pressure. Some pillars of support for consumer spending may be weakening.

Persons: Solita Marcelli, Biden, ”, Diane Swonk, They've, Catherine Mann, Morgan Stanley, Chris Kempczinski, he’s, ” ___ Rugaber Organizations: U.S, UBS Global Wealth Management, International Monetary Fund, KPMG, “, Federal, British, Bank of England, Bank of, Japan, Federal Reserve Locations: United States, Japan, United Kingdom, U.S, Government, Americas, Washington, Europe, Ukraine, China

☆ A hot economy isn't a good reason for the Fed to 'drag its feet' on rate cuts, former central bank economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-14 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed adds to recessionary risk if it stalls rate cuts, Claudia Sahm wrote in the Financial Times. AdvertisementStrong labor and inflation conditions shouldn't stall interest rate cuts, and a higher-for-longer policy only compounds distress in the US economy, Claudia Sahm wrote in the Financial Times. We are so close to unwinding the final Covid disruptions," the former central bank economist wrote. "Now it is not the time for the central bank to drag its feet on rate cuts. But the world has changed with notable disinflation, and the Fed is not changing its policy," she wrote.

Persons: Claudia Sahm, —, It's, Sahm Organizations: Financial Times, Service, Federal, Fed

☆ Why a booming US job market is bad news for homebuyers
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-05 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Mortgage rates are unlikely to keep falling, says Mike Fratantoni of the Mortgage Bankers Association. A strong jobs market means the Fed is unlikely to ease monetary policy, keeping mortgage rates higher. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementRed-hot strength in the labor market might calm recessionary fears, but it's not the greatest update for homebuyers awaiting lower mortgage rates.

Persons: Mike Fratantoni, —, it's Organizations: Mortgage, Association, Service, Business

☆ These 7 recession indicators are still glaring bright red, signaling a sharp downturn could be imminent despite surging GDP and low unemployment
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-26 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Combine that with a steady pace of monthly job gains, a historically-low unemployment rate of 3.7%, and inflation under 4%, and it looks like a soft landing is in view. But according to a list of recession indicators from ClearBridge Investments, a downturn is still likely in the months ahead. The Conference BoardThen there's wage growth, which is also declining at a pace typically seen in recessionary environments. On a three-month moving average basis, median wage growth has fallen to 5.2% in December 2023 from 6.7% in August 2022. With the economy holding strong in recent months, consensus has swung heavily back in favor of a soft landing.

Persons: Jeff Schulze, Schulze, Louis Fed, Louis, That's Organizations: Business, ClearBridge Investments, Fourth, Institute for Supply Management, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Louis Fed

☆ 3 reasons the US economy's strength right now is a head-fake, according to Mohamed El-Erian
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-26 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The narrative that the US economy could achieve a soft landing still faces challenges, Mohamed El-Erian told Bloomberg TV. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementMarket confidence in a US soft landing ignores three vulnerabilities that still pose a recessionary threat, economist Mohamed El-Erian told Bloomberg TV. The bank expects a noticeable mid-year slowdown, contrasting Wall Street's soft landing consensus. Secondly, inflation will also keep a recession on standby, as it's no given that it won't rebound, El-Erian warned.

Persons: Mohamed El, Erian, —, it's, Wells, November's, I've, Yemen's Houthi Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Federal Reserve Locations: Europe, Red, Africa

The U.S. economy ended 2023 with a bang, as growth in gross domestic product in the fourth quarter came in at 3.3%, easily dashing expectations on strong consumer spending and exports. Economists had predicted a gain of 2% for the quarter following the third quarter’s 4.9% increase, driven by strong consumer spending, rebuilding of inventories and a resilient labor market. Although 2023 outperformed, defying predictions of a recession even as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to a level not seen in four decades, most economists are forecasting growth slowing this year. The strong fourth quarter number is likely to cast doubt on whether the Fed will begin cutting interest rates as early as the market thinks. “Consumers will likely remain cautious with their spending as they confront ‘cost fatigue’ and less vibrant labor market conditions.

Persons: ”, Steve Rick, Gregory Daco, Daco, Jerome Powell, “, ” Daco Organizations: Federal Reserve, TruStage, “, Fed, Labor Department Locations: U.S, Ukraine

☆ No indication to expect recessionary conditions near term: Gradient's Jeremy Bryan
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNo indication to expect recessionary conditions near term: Gradient's Jeremy BryanJeremy Bryan, portfolio manager at Gradient Investments, and CNBC's Mike Santoli join 'Power Lunch' to discuss how the economy is holding up in 2024 compared to the market.

Persons: Jeremy Bryan Jeremy Bryan, Mike Santoli

☆ A 28-year market vet breaks down why the risk of a recession is 'higher than thought' — and warns 73 years of market history shows stocks are likely in for a terrible year
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-20 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

"However, the decline in full-time employment suggests recession risks are higher than thought." Here's the drop in wage growth Roberts mentions. At the moment, CEO confidence isn't great, Roberts pointed out, which could mean further trouble ahead for employment growth. AdvertisementA warning sign for stocksWhile it will take time for the labor market outlook to become clear, Roberts said stocks are already flashing signs of trouble. But that view became less popular in the second half of 2023 as the labor market proved resilient month after month amid Federal Reserve rate hikes, and inflation dropped to under 4%.

Persons: —, Lance Roberts, Roberts, St, Louis Fed, it's Organizations: Service, RIA, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Conference, Federal Reserve

☆ Top money managers warn that 2024 earnings expectations are getting out of hand, even as Wall Street firms scramble to raise their S&P 500 targets
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-18 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Goldman Sachs"We expect price increases to be driven by modest earnings growth and well-supported price-to-earnings multiples," wrote Austin Pickle, a strategist at WFII, in a January 16 note. Stucky continued: "I've never seen a re-acceleration in earnings growth — which is what the baseline expectation is for earnings — absent some sort of economic recovery or an acceleration in economic growth. He noted that many factors influence profits, but added that his forward model suggests there's earnings risk ahead. Bianco said he expects flat or mid-single-digit earnings growth for stocks in most sectors. However, he said that during expansions, GDP growth is a poor predictor of earnings growth.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Austin Pickle, Jonathan Golub, Golub, Matt Stucky, Stucky, I've, Brad Klapmeyer, He's, Klapmeyer, Anthony Saglimbene, —, Saglimbene, Saglimbene doesn't, David Bianco, Bianco Organizations: Business, Wells, Investment Institute, UBS, Federal Reserve, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, Macquarie Asset Management, DWS Group

☆ Treasury yields edge higher as investors monitor data and Fed comments
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-17 | by ( Matt Clinch | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note edged higher to 4.0694%. The 2-year Treasury yield rose by around 5 basis points to trade at 4.278%. Treasury yields were higher early Wednesday, with the 10-year yield holding above 4%, as investors focused on fresh data and commentary from Federal Reserve members. On Tuesday, yields jumped after comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, who suggested that while the central bank will likely cut rates this year, it may take its time. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, more European Central Bank members indicated that markets were getting ahead of themselves on rate cut projections.

Persons: FactSet, Christopher Waller, Klaas Knot, Jeff Cox, Pia Singh Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, Investors, Economic, Central Bank, CNBC Wednesday Locations: Davos, Dutch

☆ UBS raises S&P 500 target for 2024, sees nearly 8% gain from here
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-16 | by ( Pia Singh | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The S & P 500 is in for yet another strong year, according to UBS. The firm lifted its year-end target on the S & P 500 from 4,850 to 5,150, representing 7.7% upside for the benchmark stock index from Friday's close. The S & P 500 ended last week at 4,783.83. This year's more dovish Federal Reserve policy supports higher valuations, Golub said, upping his 2024 earnings-per-share estimate on the S & P 500 by $10 to $235. "While the S & P 500 advanced throughout 2023, leadership has become more pro-cyclical over the past 3 months, an indication of investor optimism toward the economy," Golub said.

Persons: Jonathan Golub, Golub, upping Organizations: UBS, Federal, Technology

☆ The S&P 500 looks risky, there's a 75% chance of recession this year, and a firing frenzy is looming, elite investor Jeffrey Gundlach says
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-15 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Jeffrey Gundlach says the S&P 500 is a bad bet now and the Magnificent Seven will probably falter. Gundlach expects inflation, interest rates, and unemployment to be higher than most expect. "Rich enough for sure is the S&P 500. It's going to be hard to sustain that double top in the S&P 500 with this type of expectation of earnings growth." So in the next recession, interest rates are not going to fall precipitously."

Persons: Jeffrey Gundlach, —, Rich, We've, we're, We're, They've, Gundlach Organizations: Service, DoubleLine

☆ Stock futures are lower to start shortened trading week: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-15 | by ( Pia Singh | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) during morning trading on January 11, 2024 in New York City. Stock futures are lower Monday night as Wall Street awaits further data and bank earnings that will provide a better glimpse into the state of the American consumer. S&P 500 futures dipped more than 0.1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures shed 0.2%. Another batch of bank earnings will be out during this holiday-shortened week, providing further clues about consumer health and data on credit card payments and delinquencies. Charles Schwab and M&T Bank , as well as several regional banks, are also slated to release their earnings this week.

Persons: FactSet, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Charles Schwab, Wells Fargo — Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Futures, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, PNC Financial Services, T Bank, JPMorgan, Citigroup, Dow Locations: New York City, Friday's

☆ Markets are underestimating the potential for an economic slowdown, and 'greedflation' won't help investors anymore, Societe Generale says
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-11 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewInvestors are underestimating the risk of an economic slowdown, and "greedflation" among companies can't prop up the market any longer, Société Générale said in a note this week. Firms hiking prices likely helped avoid a deeper slump in profits stemming from a slowing economy, Société Générale strategist Albert Edwards said. "The Greedflation driven surge in margins helped stop the profits slowdown turning into a deep downturn. A recession still poses a decent risk to the economy, though investors have warmed up to the prospect of a soft-landing.

Persons: —, Société Générale, they're, Société, Albert Edwards, Greedflation, Edwards, –, Evercore, quant, Andrew Lapthorne, David Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, New, Fed, Institute of Supply, Evercore ISI

☆ DoubleLine's Gundlach sees ‘very painful’ economic downturn, S&P 500 may be forming ‘double top’
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-09 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach said Tuesday that he sees the chance of a severe recession coming in 2024 and that the S & P 500 , possibly in anticipation, may be forming a particularly bearish technical trading pattern. Other than the yield curve, Gundlach said leading economic indicators have been flashing contractionary signals for a long time, especially manufacturing. Gundlach pointed out that the S & P 500 has almost returned to its record level set in January 2022, forming a "double top" price chart. At the end of 2023, after a 24% rally, the S & P 500 was less than 1% from its all-time high of 4796.56 reached in January 2022. Gundlach said the greenback is losing its momentum and the S & P 500 should underperform its international counterparts in the next recession.

Persons: Jeffrey Gundlach, Gundlach, Carter, We're, we've Organizations: DoubleLine

☆ Global economy set for its worst half decade of growth in 30 years, World Bank says
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-09 | by ( Karen Gilchrist | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The global economy is on course to record its worst half decade of growth in 30 years, according to the World Bank. Global growth is forecast to slow for the third year in a row in 2024, dipping to 2.4% from 2.6% in 2023, the organization said in its latest "Global Economic Prospects" report released Tuesday. And despite the global economy proving resilient in the face of recessionary risks in 2023, increased geopolitical tensions will present fresh near-term challenges, the organization said, leaving most economies set to grow more slowly in 2024 and 2025 than they did in the previous decade. Escalation of these conflicts could have significant implications for energy prices that could have impacts on inflation as well as on economic growth," Ayhan Kose, the World Bank's deputy chief economist and director of the Prospects Group, told CNBC's Silvia Amaro. The bank warned that without a "major course correction," the 2020s will go down as "a decade of wasted opportunity."

Persons: CNBC's Silvia Amaro Organizations: World Bank Locations: Eastern Europe, Russian, Ukraine

☆ Will there be a recession in 2024? For bottom up investors, it may not matter
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-30 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

After several years of big swings in the market and the U.S. economy, investors may want to buckle down and focus on individual stocks rather than make bold predictions about 2024. A resilient economy in 2023 proved widespread projections of an imminent recession wrong, and the economic consensus is murkier heading into the new year. That scenario of an economy exiting a recession seems far away as the calendar turns to 2024 with the U.S. labor market still growing. And quality stocks showed in 2023 that they can have solid performance even if growth is what leads the market. Shifting to high quality stocks can give investors a measure of defense in their portfolio without piling into cash.

Persons: Tony DeSpirito, DeSpirito, Seder, George Mateyo Organizations: Wall, BlackRock, CNBC, Key Private Bank Locations: U.S

☆ Evercore ISI sees big pullback in first half of 2024 as recession ‘materializes’
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-11 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The market is going to worsen early in 2024 before recovering, according to Evercore ISI. The firm sees the S & P 500 falling in the first half of next year to 3,970 as a "recession materializes and politics [amplify] volatility." An inverted yield curve also portends the start of a recessionary period in the first quarter of 2024, he added. "'Defense Wins Championships' is a consistent theme between [the] last hike and first cut in the recession playbook," said Emanuel. By comparison, the S & P 500 is up 20.1% year to date.

Persons: That's, Julian Emanuel, Emanuel Organizations: ISI

☆ 'Somebody has it wrong' on U.S. recession risks as oil, gold and Treasurys diverge, fund manager says
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-11 | by ( Katrina Bishop | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Markets are confused over the odds of a U.S. recession, and "somebody has got it wrong," according to hedge fund manager David Neuhauser. Except I think that [the] forward path — are we going to see things start to fall off a cliff? Or are we going to, sort of, glide path down and corporate earnings are going to be sheltered from the storm?" "That's the thing, I think, people don't have a really good understanding of today, but they're believing that that's going to happen — that's the narrative." "When you look at the oil … and you look at the gold market, that's telling you recession is in the front," he said.

Persons: David Neuhauser, Nonfarm payrolls, Neuhauser, Brent, I'm Organizations: Livermore Partners, CNBC, Treasury, CNBC PRO Locations: U.S, China

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