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An effort to give Trump more say on ratesThis week, investors had planned to examine the latest inflation data, due out at 8:30 a.m. Eastern on Friday, for clues about when the Fed would start cutting interest rates. The Wall Street Journal reports that allies of Donald Trump are devising ways of watering down the central bank’s independence if he is re-elected president. But it also raises questions about whether such a plan is possible — or whether Trump’s Wall Street supporters would back it. Among the most consequential would be asserting that Trump had the authority to oust Jay Powell as Fed chair before Powell’s term is up in 2025. While Trump gave Powell the job in 2017, he has since soured on his pick for raising rates, and has publicly said he wouldn’t give Powell a second term.

Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, Jay Powell, Powell, wouldn’t Organizations: Trump, Street Journal, Wall

Meta’s A.I. But for investors, that’s not enough — and that’s a warning to other tech giants set to announce their own financial results in the coming days. That makes clear that while Wall Street loves the opportunities that A.I. The company plans to spend $35 billion to $40 billion this year — much of that on the technology — up from a forecast of $30 billion to $37 billion. It also expects second-quarter revenue to come in at $36.5 billion to $39 billion, below analyst estimates.

Persons: Meta’s, Meta, that’s, Mark Zuckerberg Organizations: Facebook, Wall, Meta

The winners from the TikTok battleThe countdown to TikTok disappearing from the United States is about to start. The Senate overwhelmingly passed legislation to force the divestment of the video app by its Chinese owner, ByteDance, within a year or be banned. Barring the app from U.S. shores could take months, or even years — if it actually happens. The road ahead is complicated, and any disruptions to the app could bolster its American rivals. Analysts at Bernstein have estimated that, should TikTok be banned, Meta could draw up to 60 percent of TikTok’s American ad revenue, while YouTube could take another 25 percent or so.

Persons: Biden, Bernstein Organizations: Google, Meta, YouTube Locations: United States

Campus unrest spreadsTop American colleges are in turmoil, with dozens of pro-Palestinian student protesters having been arrested at N.Y.U. and Yale amid new worries about antisemitism on campus. The latest: Police were called in to break up pro-Palestinian protests at N.Y.U. Harvard shut Harvard Yard and Columbia will make classes at its main campus hybrid until next week. Encampments were growing at other schools, including M.I.T., the University of Michigan and the University of California, Berkeley.

Organizations: Palestinian, Yale, University, University of Pennsylvania, Harvard, Police, Columbia, University of Michigan, University of California Locations: N.Y.U, Columbia, Berkeley

Tesla investors’ nerve-racking rideTesla has hardly been keeping quiet as it prepares to announce earnings on Tuesday. These developments are the latest signs that Tesla is confronting its toughest stretch in years — and many shareholders aren’t convinced that the company and its C.E.O., Elon Musk, are taking the right steps to address it. The latest: During the weekend, Tesla cut prices of several models in China, the U.S. and Europe. Those moves came a day after Tesla voluntarily recalled nearly 4,000 Cybertrucks over a faulty accelerator pedal that could get stuck. It’s all apparently keeping Musk so busy that he canceled a trip to India, during which he was expected to meet with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and announce plans to build a factory there.

Persons: Tesla, aren’t, Elon Musk, Narendra Modi Locations: China, U.S, Europe, India

Labor painsAfter a “summer of strikes” last year that stretched from Detroit to Hollywood, unions are on a roll, flexing their growing might. Friday will bring a new test of that power as workers at a Volkswagen factory in Tennessee vote on whether to join the United Automobile Workers. Victory there would mark perhaps the first time a foreign carmaker’s U.S. plant became unionized and form a beachhead for organized labor in the anti-union South. But it could also resonate well beyond the car industry as President Biden cultivates labor in battleground states like Michigan and Pennsylvania. A yes vote would be a big win for the U.A.W.

Persons: ”, Biden, Shawn Fain, they’ve Organizations: Volkswagen, United Automobile Workers, Big, Detroit carmakers, Toyota, Tesla, Automotive News Locations: Detroit, Hollywood, Tennessee, U.S, Michigan, Pennsylvania

The clock ticks for TikTokThe push to either split TikTok from its Chinese owner, ByteDance, or ban it in the U.S. is gaining momentum thanks to a legislative maneuver by the House Speaker Mike Johnson. The bill’s progress comes as The Times reveals more details about the video platform’s origin story — and the central role played by the Chinese subsidiary of the trading firm of a Republican donor, Jeff Yass. Johnson has bundled the TikTok bill into a foreign aid package. The speaker said on Wednesday that he would put up for a vote this weekend a spending measure for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan that includes a modified version of the TikTok divestment legislation. The move may force the Senate’s hand: The House overwhelmingly passed the bill last month, but the Senate hasn’t been in a rush to take it up.

Persons: Mike Johnson, Jeff Yass, Johnson, hasn’t Organizations: Times Locations: U.S, Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan

Tesla tries again on Musk’s record pay packageNearly three months ago, a Delaware court voided Elon Musk’s multibillion-dollar pay package that Tesla’s board — and most shareholders — had given him in 2018, contending that the process to decide it was “deeply flawed” and that the company didn’t properly disclose it to investors. On Wednesday, Tesla said that it would ask shareholders to vote again on that same pay package, now valued at about $47 billion, at its annual meeting on June 13. The company’s board is effectively asking shareholders, now armed with all of the information that was revealed about the negotiations in court, to make the court’s ruling moot. The vote is likely to set off a bitter battle among investors and governance experts over whether shareholders should provide Musk with the richest pay package in U.S. corporate history. It comes as Tesla faces new challenges, especially slumping sales that have erased billions off its market value in recent months.

Persons: Tesla, Elon Musk’s, — Locations: Delaware

deal as a diplomatic weaponA relatively small deal — by Microsoft’s standards, anyway — is leading to big geopolitical ripples on Tuesday. The tech giant is investing $1.5 billion in G42, an Emirati artificial intelligence company. On its face, that may appear to be just another effort by the tech giant to claim a foothold in a fast-growing A.I. The terms of the deal: G42 will be able to sell Microsoft services that use powerful A.I. chips; in return, it will use Microsoft’s Azure cloud services for its A.I.

Persons: OpenAI, Biden Organizations: Microsoft Locations: Beijing, China

But the calm could be short lived, as world leaders and markets focus on Israel’s response. Military clashes don’t always sink the markets, as was the case when Hamas attacked Israel in October and Israel retaliated. “We may be entering one of the most treacherous geopolitical eras since World War II,” Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase’s C.E.O., warned last week. “Take the win,” President Biden reportedly told Israel’s embattled prime minister after the attack was rebuffed with American help. Iran has signaled that the attack was a one-and-done, but Israel’s war cabinet hasn’t indicated its next move.

Persons: Israel, ” Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase’s, Benjamin Netanyahu, Biden, hasn’t, Helima Croft Organizations: JPMorgan, ”, RBC Capital Markets Locations: Israel, Ukraine, United States, Iran

Housing gloomThe higher-for-longer inflation predicament has hit the U.S. housing market like a thunderbolt. More economists are paring their bets that the Fed will cut rates after the latest Consumer Price Index report. They all argue that sticky inflation will force the Fed to keep borrowing costs higher for longer. The country is growing faster than many peers, but voters are zeroing in on inflation to explain their disapproval of President Biden’s handling of the economy. (Some DealBook readers in recent days have emailed to say that they’re strongly feeling the pain of housing inflation.)

Persons: Goldman Sachs, ” Lawrence Yun, Biden’s Organizations: Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, National Association of Realtors

The dollar spiked overnight and traders slashed their bets on when — or whether — the Fed would cut interest rates this year. Such uncertainty could last for months and complicate President Biden’s bid for a second term. Traders this morning were pricing in less than two rate cuts for 2024 — down from more than six at the start of the year — possibly starting in July. The growing view on Wall Street is that inflation will need to get closer to the Fed’s 2 percent target before the central bank makes a move. Some are going even further: Larry Summers, the former Treasury secretary and a critic of the Fed’s handling of inflation, told Bloomberg that a rate increase can’t be ruled out.

Persons: Biden’s, Larry Summers Organizations: Fed, Biden U.S, Treasury, Bloomberg

Deal making runs into presidential politicsPresident Biden holds talks on Wednesday for Fumio Kishida, Japan’s prime minister, part of a state visit designed to show the U.S.’s commitment to a staunch ally. Despite the pomp and ceremony, the presidential election will loom over the meetings, with Biden’s opposition to Nippon Steel’s bid for U.S. Steel showing how the chase for votes is affecting deal making and economic policy. The summit will be just the fifth state visit of his administration, and reflects a different approach to that of his predecessor, Donald Trump. Both Biden and Trump have courted union workers, notably during the auto industry strike last year. Biden is the first sitting president to visit a picket line.

Persons: Biden, Fumio, Donald Trump, It’s, Trump Organizations: Nippon, U.S, Steel, Nippon Steel’s, Pennsylvania, Biden Locations: U.S, Japan, China, South Korea, India, Europe, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh

What next on inflation and rate cuts? The mood music on rate cuts has changed again. All eyes now are focused on the upcoming Consumer Price Index data for clues on when the Fed might finally start cutting interest rates. Economists on Tuesday are forecasting higher growth but also higher-for-longer inflation and rates. Traders are penciling in fewer than three cuts this year — lower than the Fed’s own projection — with the first coming not before July.

Persons: That’s

Jamie Dimon sees America at a ‘Pivotal Moment’Jamie Dimon’s annual letter to JPMorgan Chase shareholders has just been published. The economy is resilient but the government underpinning it is a red flag. Consumers are spending and investors expect a soft landing. But Dimon warns that the economy is being fueled by government spending and rising deficits. “These markets seem to be pricing in at a 70% to 80% chance of a soft landing — modest growth along with declining inflation and interest rates,” Dimon writes, adding that the odds are actually a lot lower.

Persons: Jamie Dimon, Jamie Dimon’s, Dimon, ”, ” Dimon Organizations: JPMorgan Chase Locations: America, Ukraine

Oil spike ripples through global marketsThe price of Brent crude rose again on Friday, at one point topping $91 a barrel. Growing tensions in the Middle East have pushed the global benchmark to levels last reached in October. Some analysts believe the oil rally is just beginning, creating a fresh inflation risk for central bankers who are struggling to keep price-increases in check. JPMorgan Chase forecast last week that oil would climb above $100 by September. And, in a bad sign for motorists, gasoline prices in the U.S. have climbed 6 percent in the past month just ahead of the North American summer driving season.

Persons: Brent, Biden Organizations: JPMorgan Chase Locations: U.S

Disney fended off the activist investor Nelson Peltz for the second time in two years, as its shareholders rejected his effort to win two seats on its board. The House of Mouse claimed a “substantial” margin of victory, after a bitterly fought contest with Peltz and his major backer, the former Marvel chair Ike Perlmutter. Based on preliminary results from Wednesday’s annual investor meeting, Disney’s board candidates won the backing of 75 percent of individual shareholders, an outsize investor base. But like any good Disney tale, the board fight provided a series of lessons for the future — for companies and activists alike. That included cost-cutting efforts, an investment in the video game giant Epic Games and a shake-up in the struggling movie division.

Persons: Iger, Nelson Peltz, Mouse, Peltz, Ike Perlmutter, Bob Iger Organizations: Disney, Marvel, Wall Street

Tesla’s woes prompt an E.V. reassessmentWall Street has sounded the alarm for weeks that the transition to electric vehicles may be stalling, despite billions in government subsidies and huge investments by auto giants. Tesla’s latest sales figures suggest that the pullback may be worse than thought — and beyond one company’s ability to fix. Tesla’s numbers undershot forecasts. That has contributed to a more than 30 percent decline in Tesla’s stock, which has made it one of the worst performers on the S&P 500 this year.

Microsoft unbundles, againMicrosoft is separating Teams, its popular video and chat app, from its Office software suite in markets around the world, broadening a split that began in the European Union last fall. It appears to be the latest effort by the software giant to head off investigations by global antitrust enforcers as regulators examine the power of Big Tech. Microsoft first added the video and document collaboration program to its business software suite in 2017, and saw Teams’s popularity soar after the coronavirus pandemic unleashed a boom in hybrid and remote working. At the height of the lockdown in 2020, Slack filed a complaint with the European Commission accusing Microsoft of anticompetitive behavior by bundling Teams with Office. (Three months later, Slack agreed to sell itself to Salesforce for $27.7 billion.)

Persons: Microsoft unbundles, Slack, Eric Yuan Organizations: Microsoft, European Union, Big Tech, Rivals, Commission

Politicians and auto executives on both sides of the Atlantic are calling for more protectionist measures. After Tesla lost its crown to BYD as the world’s biggest E.V. Otherwise, the Tesla C.E.O. said, Chinese E.V. The continent’s auto sector employs 13 million people and generates 8 percent of the bloc’s G.D.P.

Persons: China Tesla, —, Warren Buffett, Tesla, Elon Musk, ” Luca de Meo, Vivienne Walt, DealBook, ”, June’s E.U Organizations: Renault Group’s, Airbus Locations: China, Europe, June’s

Kushner and Kloss take over Life magazineLife, the iconic photography-focused chronicler of the 20th century, has taken on many forms, including a weekly magazine, a website and the occasional special issue. Kushner and Kloss are buying the publication rights to Life from Dotdash Meredith, the print and digital publisher. The deal is being done through Bedford Media, the media start-up that Kloss leads as C.E.O. Life was once a central part of American culture, featuring the work of renowned photographers like Robert Capa and writing by top authors. (Ernest Hemingway’s “The Old Man and the Sea” first appeared in its pages.

Persons: Kushner, Kloss, Barry, Josh Kushner, Dotdash Meredith, Robert Capa, Ernest Hemingway’s “ Organizations: IAC, Bedford Media Locations: OpenAI

A settlement that could scramble the credit card businessA long-running fight between the credit card giants Visa and Mastercard and retailers in the United States is nearing an end, with the promise of lower fees for merchants. But the proposed class-action settlement could have wider consequences, including for the lucrative business of high-end credit cards — and for retailers. What’s in the settlement: Visa and Mastercard said on Tuesday that they had agreed to reduce swipe fees, costs associated with the use of a credit card, for about five years. Perhaps more important, merchants will be able to raise their prices based on the kind of card. For example, buying groceries with a higher-fee card — typically a premium card like the Chase Sapphire Reserve — could become more expensive than paying with a lower-end one.

Organizations: Visa, Mastercard, Chase Locations: United States

BlackRock’s chief wants to rethink a fiscal time bombAs the chairman and C.E.O. In his latest letter to investors, published on Tuesday, Fink weighs in on a new topic: a looming global retirement crisis, and what can be done to address it. The way retirement is handled around the world needs to change, Fink writes. In the U.S. in particular, people are living longer, a trend that’s likely to grow given the advent of weight loss drugs like Wegovy, Fink writes. But he adds that four in 10 Americans don’t have $400 in emergency savings, let alone proper retirement funds.

Persons: Larry Fink, Fink Organizations: BlackRock

Raised stakes in a firearms takeover contestA battle over Vista Outdoor, the company behind top ammunition brands like Remington and Camelbak water bottles, is escalating — and national security is becoming a bigger factor in the fight. MNC is offering $37.50 a share for all of Vista, up from a bid of $35 last month and 16 percent higher than where Vista’s stock closed on Friday. In a letter to Vista’s board reviewed by DealBook, the investment firm reiterated that it had lined up financing for its offer, despite questions by Vista about how solid those commitments were. Vista rejected MNC’s previous offer, saying a planned breakup of itself would be more valuable for shareholders. (Vista has agreed to sell its ammunition business to CSG for $1.9 billion, leaving its nonfirearm division, Revelyst, as a stand-alone public company.)

Persons: DealBook, Vista Organizations: Vista, Remington, MNC Capital, Czechoslovak, MNC, CSG Locations: U.S, Vista

☆ ‘Cherry on the Cake’: How China Views the U.S. Crackdown on TikTok
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-23 | by ( Ravi Mattu | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

He spoke with DealBook about how China views the latest U.S. crackdown on TikTok. How does China see the latest TikTok fight? Chinese state media and government spokespeople have made it clear that this is very unwelcome. State media is keeping its powder dry because there are still several steps before ByteDance might have to sell TikTok in the U.S. Before this looks really imminent, state media is not rallying citizens to object too much.

Persons: Dan Wang, Wang, Yale Law School’s Paul Tsai, DealBook, spokespeople, ByteDance Organizations: Yale Law, Yale Law School’s Paul Tsai China Center, U.S Locations: China, United States, America, Beijing, U.S

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