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☆ Why bank stocks are so unstable
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +10 min

New York CNN —The financial sector has been churning in rough water since the shocking collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March. Bank insiders see this and have been buying up shares of regional lenders, according to a report by Timothy Coffey, an analyst at Janney Montgomery Scott. The Oracle of Omaha said he remains cautious about holding bank stocks and that he has reduced his own exposure to the sector. The S&P 500 financial sector, however, is down more than 12% over the same period. Economists were hoping that this year would bring better news, but instead 2023 brought the collapse of three US regional banks and a subsequent lending squeeze.

☆ Fed survey: Banks are tightening up their lending standards after rate hikes, turmoil
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Survey respondents attributed the changes in lending standards to economic uncertainty, a reduced appetite for risk, deterioration in collateral values and broader concerns about banks’ funding costs and liquidity positions, according to the Fed report. At the time, banks expected that trend of tightening credit, waning demand and deteriorating loan quality would continue. Fed president: Central bank should weigh effectsFederal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said in an interview with Yahoo! Fed officials, including Chair Powell, have previously noted that credit tightening could act similarly to a rate hike. A ‘salient risk’Separately on Monday, the Fed released its semi-annual Financial Stability Report, which assesses the resilience of the US financial system.

☆ What the April jobs report means for you, your employer, and the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Minneapolis CNN —High prices, rising interest rates and banking uncertainty be damned: The US labor market is still chugging right along. “The American labor market right now is simply unstoppable,” RSM economist Joseph Brusuelas wrote in a note Friday. “This is what a soft landing would look like, with job growth gradually slowing to a more sustainable pace,” Faucher added. The milestone comes just three years after the Covid-19 pandemic caused mass layoffs that pushed the Black unemployment rate as high as 16.8%. “Make no mistake, the Black [unemployment] rate is still too high,” Shierholz tweeted.

☆ Premarket stocks: What happens above 5%? The Fed's big risk
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Julia Horowitz | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

However, job openings that month tumbled to their lowest level since May 2021, according to data released Tuesday. The shifting landscape paved the way for the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March and First Republic Bank this week. By blessing JPMorgan’s takeover of First Republic Bank, the Democratic US senator fears federal regulators just made the “too big to fail” problem even worse. To the relief of investors and bank customers, the JPMorgan deal protects all of First Republic’s depositors. The decision to invest in food and grocery delivery during the pandemic has become a big advantage for Uber.

The Fed's meeting will be followed with expected rate increases by the European Central Bank on Thursday and the Bank of England next week. But the U.S. central bank is furthest along in the process, and may signal that this week's rate increase is the last, at least for now. Inflation has been edging down, gradually, with the main price index the Fed watches still more than double the central bank's 2% target. The anticipated quarter-percentage-point increase on Wednesday will put the target federal funds rate at roughly the same spot, between 5% and 5.25%. With this rate increase, Fed officials will hit a level that will be about 1 percentage point above the rate they consider to have a neutral impact on economic activity.

New York CNN —The collapse of First Republic Bank is unlikely to worsen the US economic outlook, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said Monday. Dimon told CNN’s Poppy Harlow early last month that the stress in the banking system had increased the odds of a US recession. The bank had $100 billion in those deposits withdrawn from the bank during the first quarter, it reported last week. “The American banking system is extraordinarily sound,” he said. But he agreed with Dimon that the seizure of First Republic, however, does not shift those forecasts, he told CNN Monday.

☆ 'Welcome to the recession:' Most of Wall Street still sees trouble ahead for the U.S. economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

In fact, excluding the drag from inventories, GDP growth actually would have been closer to 3.4%, well above trend. However, most economists and strategists on Wall Street think the U.S. economy is still on the path to recession. We continue to expect the drag from higher interest rates and tightening credit conditions to push the economy into a mild recession soon." Jim Baird, chief investment officer, Plante Moran Financial Advisors "For all the discussion of recession risk – which is very real – consumers remain willing and able to spend. Recession risks remain elevated; the first estimate of Q1 GDP confirms that the economy continues to slow.

☆ First Republic may not survive, even after two multibillion-dollar bailouts
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

New York CNN —First Republic Bank is in a fight for its survival. “It’s becoming clearer each day” that First Republic is “toast,” said Don Bilson at Gordon Haskett, in a note Wednesday. First Republic said in its latest earnings call that is exploring its strategic options, Wall Street code for searching for a white knight. First Republic CEO Michael Roffler attempted to assure investors in an earnings call Monday that the bank had enough liquidity to do that. That’s what happened to Silicon Valley Bank on March 10 when the California Department of Financial Protection and Innovation took possession of and closed Silicon Valley Bank and on March 12 Signature Bank was closed by the New York State Department of Financial Services.

The prospective class action complaint, filed in 2021 by two members of the annual paid subscription service Amazon Prime, alleged Amazon was unlawfully "tying" the online sale of third-party products to the use of the company's "Fulfillment by Amazon" program. The lawsuit said Amazon's alleged anticompetitive fulfillment practices had harmed "hundreds of millions of its loyal customers." Amazon's attorneys argued that fulfillment services are sold not to consumers who buy products but to third-party businesses that are selling goods on the company's platform. The antitrust case against Amazon was among private and state actions alleging violations of competition law. The case is Angela Hogan et al v. Amazon.com Inc, U.S. District Court, Western District of Washington, No.

☆ Premarket stocks: What markets are watching after digesting the US jobs data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

While inflation has come down and other economic data point to a cooling economy, the labor market has remained remarkably resilient. The labor market is cooling but not rapidly or significantly, and further rate hikes can’t be ruled out. More trouble for commercial real estateA few weeks ago, Before the Bell wrote about big problems brewing in the $20 trillion commercial real estate industry. In a worst-case scenario, anxiety about bank lending to commercial real estate could spiral, prompting customers to yank their deposits. The proportion of commercial office mortgages where borrowers are behind with payments is rising, according to Trepp, which provides data on commercial real estate.

☆ Markets and the economy survived a tough first quarter, but it's not going to get any easier
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-01 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

Despite peaks and valleys, stocks closed the first quarter on an up note, with the S & P 500 rallying more than 7% and the tech-fueled Nasdaq soaring about 16%. .SPX .DJI YTD line S & P 500 gains so far in 2023 Indeed, the market has lived through a lifetime of scary headlines in the first three months of 2023. Despite repeated protestations from Fed officials that they are taking the higher-for-longer approach on interest rates, markets still expect cuts. AAPL .SPX YTD mountain Apple compared to the S & P 500 Only five of the 11 S & P 500 sectors are positive for the year, despite the substantial rally for the index. The net profit margin for the S & P 500 also is expected to edge lower to 11.2%.

☆ Premarket stocks: Banking chaos could break the strong job market
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

New York CNN —The job market has remained strong even as the Federal Reserve has spent a full year attempting to cool off the economy by raising interest rates. But economists think that the recent banking turmoil may be what finally raises unemployment. Even with those big job cuts, the labor market in the United States remains white hot. Since the pandemic, regional banks “have provided a vast majority of lending to small firms, underwriting local small business formation,” said Philip Wool, an analyst with asset manager Rayliant. AI will likely lead to job loss, they wrote, but technological innovation that initially displaces workers has historically created employment growth over long haul.

☆ What the banking crisis means for your job
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

The Fed’s latest economic projections, released on Wednesday, were largely in line with those from its last forecast, in December. “We are in a situation with inflation elevated and now a banking crisis on top of that,” Brusuelas told CNN. “I think that the Fed’s going to move toward an above 5% unemployment rate forecast, either in June or by September,” he said. “But the costs of failing are much higher.”A new wild cardThen there’s also the scenario that the Fed could get an assist from an unlikely bedfellow — the banking crisis. I do think the odds of a recession have increased in the wake of this banking sector crisis,” he said.

☆ Premarket Stocks: Who do we blame for the fall of SVB?
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Blame the Fed: SVB’s downfall was largely caused by a record $42 billion bank run that left the bank in desperate need of cash. But the Fed’s rate hikes had undermined the value of bonds, a critical source of capital for SVB. “The Federal Reserve failed as a bank supervisor,” he wrote. On Capitol Hill, frequent Fed critic Sen. Elizabeth Warren has been quick to blame Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for a lack of oversight. Blame SVB: Others say the blame should be placed on the banks themselves.

☆ Can the Fed help fend off a banking crisis while also cooling the economy?
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

To stave off the latter, the Fed offered a solution that seemingly contradicted its hawkish flight path: looser purse-strings. That means the Fed can still fight the battle against inflation even while it shores up the banking sector. Although the Fed’s new program is an extraordinary action to ensure bank stability, the Fed is engaged in the lending business every day, Brusuelas noted. “The Fed buys and sells government securities each day to maintain the range of its policy rate — the federal funds rate — between 4.5% and 4.75%,” he said. Once that returns, the central bank can shift its focus back to restoring price stability, he said.

☆ Premarket stocks: The forgotten rescue plan that could prevent another SVB-like collapse
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

Bank stocks rebounded significantly on Tuesday after logging record plunges Monday and the week prior. Those banks will coordinate to take Fed loans around the same time on the same day alongside smaller banks. ▸ US bank stocks rebounded on Tuesday, recovering some of their losses after the collapse of three banks tested markets on Monday. Regional bank stocks rallied: First Republic (FRC) Bank ended the day up 27% after a record drop on Monday. The question is whether bank stocks can hold on to their gains or if Tuesday was just a sector-wide dead cat bounce.

☆ Takeaways from the February jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-11 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

Minneapolis CNN —February’s jobs report had a little something for everyone. In February, the construction industry added 24,000 jobs, marking 12 consecutive months of employment growth. Friday’s report showed that “a modicum of slack crept back into the jobs market,” wrote Wells Fargo economists Sarah House and Michael Pugliese. However, Friday’s jobs report likely won’t spur a more dovish turn from the Fed, said Sean Snaith, an economist and director of the University of Central Florida’s Institute for Economic Forecasting. “We didn’t go from a four-alarm fire to a five-alarm fire with this data report, but the inflation flames aren’t out either,” he wrote in a note Friday.

☆ What to expect from the February jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Minneapolis CNN —January’s jobs report delivered a heck of a surprise when it showed the US economy had added more than half a million jobs and unemployment had dipped to a level not seen in more than five decades. But economists say they are not bracing for another blindside when the February jobs report comes out on Friday morning. “If we get a second strong jobs report [on Friday], it’s no longer an anomaly,” Terrazas added. Seasonality, benchmarking and the interplay of pandemic-era data don’t completely explain away January’s blockbuster jobs report, economists say, noting there are likely influences from the currently tight labor market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ February jobs report is set to be released at 8:30 a.m.

☆ February jobs preview: What to expect after January’s blowout report
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Minneapolis CNN —January’s jobs report delivered a heck of a surprise when it showed the US economy had added more than half a million jobs and unemployment had dipped to a level not seen in more than five decades. But economists say they are not bracing for another blindside when the February jobs report comes out on Friday. “I think most economists were comfortable dismissing the January jobs data as an anomaly,” Aaron Terrazas, Glassdoor’s chief economist, told CNN. “If we get a second strong jobs report [on Friday], it’s no longer an anomaly,” Terrazas added. Seasonality, benchmarking and the interplay of pandemic-era data don’t completely explain away January’s blockbuster jobs report, economists say, noting there are likely influences from the currently tight labor market.

☆ In just a few minutes this week, Powell changed everything on market's view of interest rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell testifies before a House Financial Services hearing on "The Federal Reserve's Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report" on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., March 8, 2023. That changed after Powell's appearance, during which he cautioned that if inflation data remains strong, he expects rates to go "higher than previously anticipated" and possibly at a faster pace than a quarter point at a time. Basically, it was the January inflation data plus signs that the labor market remains remarkably strong despite the Fed's efforts to slow it down. Brusuelas is among those who think the Fed should accelerate its inflation battle with a half-point rate hike. However, he said policymakers could be swayed by a potentially softer jobs report and inflation data next week that reverses course and shows price increases abating.

Mortgage rates had been broadly declining since October but resumed their ascent in recent weeks on expectations the Fed will keep its federal funds rate higher for longer. While house prices probably had a bit further to fall, an overall housing shortage will broadly support these historically-elevated levels, Sunbury said. "We don't think affordability will return to its post-GFC levels or even its pre-pandemic average in the coming years." The 30-year fixed mortgage rate, currently at 6.5%, will average 6.35% this year, the poll found. (For other stories from the Reuters quarterly housing market polls:)Reporting by Indradip Ghosh and Prerana Bhat; Polling by Susobhan Sarkar and Sujith Pai; Editing by Hari Kishan, Ross Finley and Simon Cameron-MooreOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ The week in inflation: Data signals higher prices, possibly more aggressive Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

A week's worth of surprising economic data sent a pretty strong message to the market: Inflation that is higher than anticipated is likely to translate into higher interest rates as well. "We are listening to the signal from January inflation data, which suggest the disinflation process may be more prolonged than we previously believed," wrote Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Bank of America. The data surprises began two weeks ago when nonfarm payrolls surged by a stunning 517,000 in January , raising concerns that a resilient labor market could drive wages, and inflation, higher. The consumer price index , a closely watched inflation metric, jumped 0.5% in January, a bit more than expected. Futures pricing points to a peak, or "terminal," rate of 5.23%, according to the August 2023 fed funds futures contract.

☆ Why did we get a monster jobs report if the economy is slowing?
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-04 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

And yet, even though it seemed impossible, the labor market is somehow getting tighter, said Rucha Vankudre, senior economist at business analytics firm Lightcast. “I think pretty much all the labor economists in the country this morning are shocked,” Vankudre said Friday during a webinar after the jobs report was released. The January jobs report shouldn’t trigger a wholesale change of what Fed members are thinking or what they were planning on doing before this report, Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo, told CNN. Strong labor market in a slowing economy? January’s jobs report came with added complexity, because it included annual updates to populations estimates and revisions to employer survey data.

That was up from 10% in January 2022, but the pessimists were far outnumbered, with 71% of tech workers feeling positive. Many people spent Covid-19 lockdowns developing their digital skills, and plenty wound up switching from other sectors, like retail or education, into tech roles elsewhere. Professional and business services roles, which include engineering and “computer services,” were down 6,000 last month from November. Even so, employers’ broad appetite for tech skills could put something of a floor under wages — and prop up the appeal of tech roles in general — even as the economy slows. Experienced tech workers, rather than those new to the field, largely drove those pay gains, the jobs platform Hired found in research published in September.

☆ Here's how the U.S. economy could escape a recession in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +12 min

The U.S. economy heads into 2023 facing what might be the most anticipated recession in history. That basically means some parts of the economy will feel like they're in a recession while others won't. "Some areas of the economy may not feel like they actually are in recession. "For certain parts of the economy, it will feel like a very deep recession. For other parts, it will feel like a healthy growth economy, particularly in the parts of the economy where we see strong demand," she said.

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