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☆ China's first-quarter GDP growth seen rebounding to 4.0%, 2023 rate seen at 5.4% - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Kevin Yao | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

That would be the fastest growth since the first quarter of last year. The government has set a modest target for economic growth of around 5% for this year, after badly missing the 2022 goal. The government is due to release first quarter GDP data, along with March activity data, at 0200 GMT on April 18. On a quarterly basis, the economy is forecast to grow 2.2% in January-March, compared with no change in October-December, the poll showed. “We need to maintain the stability and continuity of macro policies to consolidate the economic recovery,” said Wen Bin, chief economist at China Minsheng Bank.

☆ China's Q1 GDP growth seen rebounding to 4.0%, 2023 rate seen at 5.4%: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Kevin Yao | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

That would be the fastest growth since the first quarter of last year. For 2023, growth was expected to pick up to 5.4%, the poll showed, from 3.0% last year - one of its worst performances in nearly half a century due to strict COVID-19 curbs. The government has set a modest target for economic growth of around 5% for this year, after badly missing the 2022 goal. The government is due to release first quarter GDP data, along with March activity data, at 0200 GMT on April 18. Consumer inflation will likely quicken to 2.3% in 2023 from 2.0% in 2022, before steadying in 2024, the poll showed.

BENGALURU, April 6(Reuters) - The Bank of Canada will keep its key interest rate steady at 4.50% through 2023, according to most economists polled by Reuters, with an even smaller minority now expecting an interest rate cut by year-end than a poll taken a month ago. In March, the BoC was the first major central bank to stop its aggressive hiking cycle and is on what it calls a conditional pause. So all 33 economists polled March 31-April 6 said it will hold its overnight rate at 4.50% on April 12. A majority of forecasters, 23 of 31, said the rate would remain unchanged for the rest of 2023. Only seven expected at least one 25-basis-point rate cut by end-year, down from 13 in a survey taken about a month ago.

☆ RBA to hike rates 25 bps on April 4 but decision on a knife edge
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Shaloo Shrivastava | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

BENGALURU, March 31 (Reuters) - Australia's central bank is expected to go for a final 25 basis point interest rate hike to 3.85% on Tuesday, although forecasts from economists polled by Reuters suggest the decision on whether to hike or hold rates is on a knife edge. However, eight of the 13 economists expecting a pause pencilled in a rate hike sometime in the second quarter. Although CBA and Westpac forecast a pause in April, they expect one more rate hike in the second quarter. Minutes from the March meeting showed RBA board members reconsidered the case for a pause at the following meeting, noting monetary policy was already in restrictive territory and the economic outlook was uncertain. Although the median forecast showed the cash rate would remain at 3.85% until the end of 2023, five economists predicted it to peak at 4.10%.

☆ RBI to raise rates once more on April 6 but leave door open for more - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Madhumita Gokhale | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A majority of economists in the March 23-28 Reuters poll also said the RBI would then keep the rate steady for the rest of the year. A majority of respondents, 20 of 36, said the central bank would maintain its withdrawal of accommodation stance at the April meeting. Until that is behind us, the RBI probably will not be very comfortable in signalling that they are done with rate hikes," said QuantEco's Kumar. In last month's poll, all economists said the bigger risk was it would be higher than they predicted. The Indian economy was forecast to grow 6.9% this fiscal year and then slow to 6.0% in the next.

☆ TSX futures edge higher as bullion prices gain
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

March 23 (Reuters) - Futures for Canada's main stock index were slightly up on Thursday as bullion advanced but lower crude oil prices kept a lid on gains for the commodity-heavy bourse. March futures on the S&P/TSX index were up 0.2% at 7:11 a.m. Crude oil prices fell on fears of weakening demand, while safe-haven assets like gold rose. ETGold futures : $1,980.9; +1.6%US crude : $70.28; -0.8%Brent crude : $76.19; -0.7%U.S. ECONOMIC DATA DUE ON THURSDAYInitial Weekly Jobless Claims due at 8:30 a.m. ETFOR CANADIAN MARKETS NEWS, CLICK ON CODES:TSX market reportCanadian dollar and bonds report CA/Reuters global stocks poll for Canada ,Canadian markets directory($1 = 1.3681 Canadian dollars)Reporting by Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru; Editing by Sriraj KalluvilaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ TSX futures crawl higher ahead of Fed meet decision
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

March 22(Reuters) - Futures for Canada's main stock index edged up on Wednesday tracking gains in bullion prices, as investors awaited the U.S. Federal Reserve's verdict on further monetary tightening. The Fed is expected to deliver quarter of a percentage-point rate hike at 2 p.m. March futures on the S&P/TSX index were up 0.2% at 7:05 a.m. Gold prices added shine as investors rushed to the safe-haven asset ahead of the Fed's rate decision announcement. ET, while S&P 500 e-minis were up 2.75 points, or 0.07% and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 7.75 points, or 0.06%.

☆ TSX set to commence week slightly higher
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

March 20(Reuters) - Futures for Canada's main stock index edged higher on Monday, aided by gains in the prices of safe-haven assets like bullion, as investors returned to markets plagued by uncertainty in the global financial sector. March futures on the S&P/TSX index , which tracks commodity prices, were up 0.3% at 7:10 a.m. Later in the week, investors also await February domestic consumer inflation data and January retail sales data. The Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index (.GSPTSE) ended 0.7% down on Friday and hit its lowest weekly levels this year, weighed down by financials. ET, while S&P 500 e-minis were up 2.25 points, or 0.06%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 2.5 points, or 0.02%.

That would come after the European Central Bank's decision on Thursday to follow through with a 50 basis point rise it pre-announced in February, prioritizing sticky inflation. Only five respondents in the latest Fed poll expected a pause, including four primary dealers, with only one bank, Nomura, expecting a 25 basis point cut. "The past week's financial turmoil will give the Fed some misgivings about pushing rates much higher," said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank. Mericle expects more hikes however, with a peak rate of 5.25%-5.50% in Q3, higher than the poll median. Meanwhile the labor market is showing few signs of weakness, with unemployment rate forecasts broadly lower compared with last month's poll.

☆ ECB deposit rate to peak at 3.75% or higher as inflation stays sticky: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] Signage is seen outside the European Central Bank (ECB) building, in Frankfurt, Germany, July 21, 2022. All 60 economists polled by Reuters March 7-9 believed her and said the bank's deposit rate would rise 50 basis points to 3.00% on Thursday. Medians in the poll showed the euro zone's central bank adding 25 basis points at the following three meetings in May, June and July to give a terminal deposit rate of 3.75%, higher than the 3.25% peak expected in a February poll. While the median showed the deposit rate peaking at 3.75% it was a view held by only 19 of 60 economists surveyed. There is now only a 34% chance of a recession within the coming year, the poll found, down from 50% in a January poll.

☆ Japan's Nikkei seen hitting 30,000 by end of 2023 on economic recovery: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Junko Fujita | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"Japanese companies will issue their outlook for 2023 by May, which will be based on the current macro environment. So the forecast will be conservative," said Hikaru Yasuda, chief equity strategist at SMBC Nikko Securities. "But as the environment is not as bad as companies (now) expect, they will slowly raise their forecast towards the end of the year." "Companies whose businesses are linked with China are expected to perform well," said Hiroshi Namioka, chief strategist and fund manager, T&D Asset Management. "Japanese equities are undervalued due to caution for the currency movement," said Hirokazu Kabeya, chief global strategist at Daiwa Securities.

☆ ECB 50-basis-point hike in March a done deal, May and June undecided
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

ECB President Christine Lagarde said at a news conference this month that the euro zone's central bank would add 50 basis points to the deposit rate. Economists took her at her word, with all 57 of them polled in the Feb. 10-15 period expecting a deposit rate hike to 3.00% at the March 16 meeting. The ECB will follow up on March's move with a further 25-basis-point lift next quarter, medians showed, giving a terminal deposit rate of 3.25% and a refinancing rate of 3.75%. In response to an additional question, an overwhelming majority - 26 of 28 - said the risk was the terminal deposit rate ends higher than they expect, rather than lower. Markets are currently pricing in a terminal deposit rate of 3.50%.

☆ At least two more Fed rate hikes and no cut this year, say economists: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( Indradip Ghosh | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

All 37 who replied to an extra question said the bigger risk was the fed funds rate would peak even higher. That means the Fed is going to keep the policy rate at high levels for quite a bit longer." One-third, or 18 of those 54 economists, predicted the fed funds rate would peak at 4.75%-5.00% and hold there through the remainder of the year. The unemployment rate, currently at the lowest since 1969, was expected to climb to 4.8% in Q1 2024, by which time most economists were expecting at least one rate cut. Asked which was more likely to compel a rate cut, 21 of 35 economists said a significant fall in inflation, with 14 saying a significant rise in unemployment.

☆ POLL Global 2023 economic view downgraded, at odds with market optimism
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( Hari Kishan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The 2023 growth forecast is well behind an International Monetary Fund forecast of 2.7% that was issued in October and is due to be updated next week. Much will depend on how much success the world's major central banks can claim from roughly a year's worth of historically aggressive interest rate hikes that are not over yet. Reuters poll graphic on the global growth outlookConsensus gross domestic product growth forecasts for 2023 for more than 80% of economies surveyed were downgraded from the October poll. That suggests central banks have no room to even consider lowering rates any time soon. "We see good reasons to believe that the global economy still has a tough year ahead," economists at Citigroup said.

☆ Global 2023 economic view downgraded, at odds with market optimism - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( Hari Kishan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The 2023 growth forecast is well behind an International Monetary Fund forecast of 2.7% that was issued in October and is due to be updated next week. Much will depend on how much success the world's major central banks can claim from roughly a year's worth of historically aggressive interest rate hikes that are not over yet. Reuters poll graphic on the global growth outlookConsensus gross domestic product growth forecasts for 2023 for more than 80% of economies surveyed were downgraded from the October poll. That, alongside six of the eight major central banks not being expected to hit their inflation targets this year, suggests speculation over lower rates could be premature. "We see good reasons to believe that the global economy still has a tough year ahead," economists at Citigroup said.

☆ Gulf economies to slow this year on sluggish oil demand - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Anant Chandak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Crude oil prices, a major driver for Gulf economies, are down more than a third from last year's highs and were expected to remain under pressure this year over fears of a recession in major economies sapping demand. Overall growth in the six GCC economies was forecast to average 3.3% and 2.8% this year and next respectively, the Jan. 9-23 poll showed, down from 4.2% and 3.3% in the previous poll. Among other Gulf countries - Qatar, Oman, and Bahrain - growth was expected at 2.4%-2.7% for 2023. Despite lower oil GDP growth, non-oil growth was expected to remain resilient in 2023, economists in the survey said. Analysts expected continued current account surpluses for the main Gulf economies, based on relatively high oil prices.

☆ Bank of England to lift rates to 4% on Feb 2, finish at 4.25% in March - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationLONDON, Jan 24 (Reuters) - The Bank of England will lift the Bank Rate by 50 basis points on Feb. 2 to 4.00% and then add another 25 basis points in March before pausing, according to a Reuters poll of economists who said the greater risk was that it would do even more. A firm majority, 29 of 42 respondents to the Jan. 18-24 poll, said the Bank would add 50 basis points next Thursday. Median forecasts in the poll showed the Bank would then add 25 basis points in March, giving a peak rate of 4.25%. Markets are pricing in a peak of 4.50% for Bank Rate. However, the poll showed GDP falling 0.3% this quarter and next and 0.1% in the third quarter.

☆ European Central Bank to raise deposit rate to 3.25% by mid-year - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

ECB President Christine Lagarde and her Governing Council will take the deposit rate to 2.50% on Feb. 2, said 55 of 59 economists in the Jan. 13-20 poll. The central bank will then add 25 basis points next quarter before pausing, giving a terminal rate in the current cycle of 3.25%, its highest since late 2008. In December's poll, the rate was put at 2.50% at end-March and was seen topping out at 2.75%. Reuters Poll - ECB deposit rate outlookAsked how the risks were skewed to their terminal deposit rate forecasts, over two-thirds of respondents, 23 of 33, said it was more likely it ends higher rather than lower than they currently expect. The refinancing rate was expected to rise 50 basis points to 3.00% next week and reach a peak of 3.50% in March.

DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 20 (Reuters) - Kenya's central bank expects inflation to fall within its target range during the first quarter of 2023 and is comfortable with its trajectory, Governor Patrick Njoroge said at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Kenya's inflation in December dipped to 9.1%, still above the bank's target range of 2.5% to 7.5%. With that in mind, the bank expects the Kenyan economy to grow 6.2% this year, Njoroge said, and does not expect a potential global recession to be "unmanageable". The bank is also not worried about depreciation of the Kenyan shilling, and expects more external financing to support the government budget, Njoroge said. The Kenyan shilling has slipped 0.54% against the U.S. dollar this year after falling over 9% in 2022.

"At the same time, we're estimating a mild recession in Europe and the United States that offset it. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, director-general of the World Trade Organization, pointed out that the reopening could help supply chains work better and also boost consumer demand. CHINA-US TENSIONSAdjacent to the discussions on China's reopening was what it could mean for its existing tensions with the United States over issues such as technology, trade and Taiwan, which several WEF delegates expressed concern over. "I think both the U.S. and China will be hurt, which doesn't just mean the national entities but workforces, people will be hurt." For daily Davos updates in your inbox sign up for the Reuters Daily Briefing here.

☆ Davos 2023: Big oil comes in from the cold on energy transition
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( Maha El Dahan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

CHINA OUT./File Photo/File PhotoSummarySummary Companies Energy transition front and centre at Davos meetingEurope energy crisis forces moment of reckoningClimate activists sceptical of oil industry inclusionDAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 20 (Reuters) - A different type of energy transition has taken place at this year's World Economic Forum (WEF) meeting. Unlike 2021's COP26 climate conference in Glasgow, where oil and gas executives were personae non gratae, fossil fuel chiefs and renewable energy bosses sat cheek by jowl in Davos. Thunberg's was not the only voice at Davos with strong objections to the industry's new mantra that the energy crisis justifies new oil investments. Like Birol, British opposition leader Keir Starmer said the oil and gas sector has a role to play in the energy transition. Jaber, who is the founding CEO of Abu Dhabi’s renewable energy firm Masdar and has overseen the UAE's mandate to adopt renewables is not without green credentials.

☆ Fed to deliver two 25-basis-point hikes in Q1, followed by long pause
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( Prerana Bhat | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Fed officials broadly agree the U.S. central bank should slow the pace of tightening to assess the impact of the rate hikes. The Fed raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by 425 basis points last year, with the bulk of the tightening coming in 75- and 50-basis-point moves. If realized, that would take the policy rate - the federal funds rate - to the 4.50%-4.75% range. The fed funds rate was expected to peak at 4.75%-5.00% in March, according to 61 of 90 economists. Reuters Poll- U.S. Federal Reserve outlookIn the meantime, the Fed is more likely to help push the economy into a recession than not.

☆ BoC to raise rates by 25 bps to peak of 4.50% on Jan. 25
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( Swathi Nair | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A strong majority of 90% of economists, 26 of 29, expected a quarter-point rise on Jan. 25 to 4.50%, according to a Jan. 17-20 Reuters poll, in line with interest rate futures. The BoC has hiked rates by a cumulative 400 basis points since March 2022. "Rather than raise interest rates much further, the bigger risk to our policy rate forecasts is that the Bank will probably keep rates high for longer than we currently assume." The BoC is then expected to keep its overnight rate on hold at 4.50% for the remainder of the year, poll medians showed. That is in line with a recent BoC survey which showed most firms now think a recession is likely.

DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 19 (Reuters) - International Energy Agency (IEA) head Fatih Birol said on Thursday that energy markets could be tighter in 2023, adding he hoped prices would not rise further in order to ease the pressure on energy-importing developing countries. "I wouldn't be too relaxed about the markets and 2023 may well be a year where we see tighter markets than some colleagues may think," IEA Executive Director Birol said in an interview with the Reuters Global Markets Forum in Davos. Two Gulf OPEC+ producers, UAE energy minister Suhail al-Mazrouei and Saudi Aramco chief Amin Nasser, have said this week they see oil markets as balanced. Birol said Russian oil exports seemed to be more "resilient" than predicted at the beginning of last year, but that they were correct in terms of "the direction of travel". On Russian product price caps which may come into effect next month, Birol said he was concerned about diesel supply.

[1/4] People stand in front of the Blockchain Hub Davos 2023 at the Promenade road during the World Economic Forum (WEF) 2023, in the Alpine resort of Davos, Switzerland, January 16, 2023. REUTERS/Arnd WiegmannDAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 19 (Reuters) - In the snow and ice on the main drag in Davos, the impact of the crypto winter is plain for WEF attendees to see. Executives in Davos said they are now all about blockchain technology, proper controls and regulation, and the promise of disruption that it holds for financial services and beyond. Colm Kelleher, chairman of Swiss bank UBS (UBSG.S), told a WEF panel that blockchain technology will help reduce costs for banks. "We kind of dodged a bullet," Kelleher said, noting that the collapse in the value of crypto currencies had not caused systemic problems.

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