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☆ Dollar treads water ahead of Powell testimony; Aussie slips
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, March 7 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar was tentative on Tuesday ahead of testimony before Congress by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, while the Aussie slid after the Reserve Bank of Australia hinted that it might nearly be done with monetary tightening. Elsewhere, the U.S. dollar index , which measures it against six major rivals, was flat at 104.24, having slipped 0.26% overnight. "We suspect he will sound noncommittal for now and take his cues from the looming upcoming key data," said Cummins, who expects the Fed to raise rates by 50 basis points. Fed funds futures traders are pricing in a 76% probability the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points at its March meeting. OCBC currency strategist Christopher Wong said Powell's testimony will be one of the last instances of Fed officials speaking before the black-out period commences ahead of the FOMC meeting.

☆ Australia central bank tempers hawkish outlook after hiking rates to over decade high
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

In a dovish step, the central bank dropped a reference to further rate "increases", saying instead that "further tightening" would be needed, suggesting that just one more hike might be enough. Rates have already gone up by a whopping 350 basis points since last May, easily the most aggressive tightening campaign by the central bank in modern history. Speculation was rife that the central bank could temper the forward guidance given recent softer data with unemployment rising, economic growth disappointing and wages not climbing as fast as feared. Gareth Aird, economist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, sees a risk of the RBA could pause in April. "The reference to assessing 'when' means that the RBA Board has not yet made their mind up around increasing the cash rate in April," Aird said.

☆ Dollar subdued ahead of Powell testimony; Aussie slips
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, March 7 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar was tentative on Tuesday ahead of testimony by U.S. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, while the Aussie slid after the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25 basis points but tempered hawkishness in its statement. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index , which measures it against six major rivals, fell 0.077% to 104.170, having slipped 0.26% overnight. The Japanese yen was mostly flat at 135.94 to the dollar ahead of the final policy meeting for Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda on Thursday and Friday. Fed funds futures traders are pricing in a 76% probability the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points at its March meeting. They also expect interest rates to peak at 5.48% in September and still be above 5% at the end of the year.

☆ Asia-Pacific shares set to fall ahead of Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hike its overnight cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.6%, according to economists surveyed by Reuters. That would mark the highest rate since June 2012, when Australia's cash rate stood at 3.75%. Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index, noted the tone of the central bank's statement could determine how much further the RBA would hike rates to tame inflation. Pointing to the RBA's statement of needing further increases in rates "over the months ahead," Simpson said, "Any adjustments to the wording of this sentence could be the difference between one or two more hikes from here." "A further increase over the months ahead would suggests one more hike is to follow, with a terminal rate at 3.85%," he said.

[1/2] U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks to David Rubenstein (not pictured) during a meeting of The Economic Club of Washington, at the Renaissance Hotel in Washington, D.C., U.S., February 7, 2023. REUTERS/Amanda Andrade-Rhoades/File PhotoMarch 7 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever. Arguably the main event in Asia will be the expected quarter point rate hike from the RBA, which would take the cash rate up to 3.60%. Tuesday's focus rests squarely on the first of two Congressional appearances this week from Powell. On the Asian data front, China's FX reserves for February could cast a light on whether Beijing is starting to reduce its huge holdings of dollar-denominated assets amid the sharp rise in U.S.-Chinese tensions.

☆ Proxy advisors urge shareholders to reject Ritchie Bros bid for IAA
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( Svea Herbst-Bayliss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Shareholders vote on March 14 on whether to approve the proposed deal. Ritchie Bros. said it "strongly disagree(s)" with the recommendations and urged shareholders to vote for the deal. The Ritchie Bros stock price climbed more than 5% in the first minutes of trading on Monday. The statement also said that Ritchie Bros. is committed to act in the best interest of all Ritchie Bros shareholders and build long-term value and drive superior shareholder returns. But a number of investors on both sides are pushing back on the deal, arguing it would distract Ritchie Bros from its core business and that it favors IAA shareholders without offering enough upside for RBA investors.

☆ The CEO of far-right network Gab says AIs like ChatGPT are 'satanic' and floats creating a Christian one to fight back
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Cheryl Teh | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The CEO of the far-right social network Gab wants to build an explicitly Christian AI. Insider asked ChatGPT whether it thinks it is satanic, to which it said no. Insider asked ChatGPT if it's satanic, and this was its response. Screenshot/ChatGPTIn his article, Torba asked: "If the enemy is going to use this technology for evil, shouldn't we be on the ground floor building one for good?" Insider asked ChatGPT what it thought of Torba's article, and was told it was "misguided."

☆ Australia's central bank abandoned pause option for Feb rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SYDNEY, Feb 21 (Reuters) - Australia's central bank, startled by the risk that inflation could prove stickier than previously thought, abandoned all thought of pausing at its February policy meeting and signalled more rate hikes would be needed in the months ahead. Minutes of the Feb. 7 policy meeting out on Tuesday showed the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) Board only discussed two options - hiking by 50 basis points or 25 bps. A pattern of upward surprises on inflation and wages had argued for the larger move, the minutes showed. In particular, underlying inflation surprised to the upside in the December quarter. The RBA expects wage growth to top 4.2% by the end of this year.

☆ Australia's central bank revises up inflation forecasts as further rate hikes flagged
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SYDNEY, Feb 10 (Reuters) - Australia's central bank on Friday revised up its forecasts for core inflation and wages growth and warned further increases in inetrest rates would be needed to head off a damaging wage-price spiral. High inflation makes life difficult for people and damages the functioning of the economy. And if high inflation were to become entrenched in people's expectations, it would be very costly to reduce later." The closely-watched trimmed mean measure of inflation will only slow to 6.2% by the middle of this year, compared with a previous forecast of 5.4%. The bank also raised its forecast of economic growth this year to 1.6% this year, compared with 1.4% previously.

☆ Australia c.bank signals more tightening ahead after lifting rates to decade-high
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Three-year government bond yields jumped 15 bps to 3.254% while ten-year yields also surged 15 bps to 3.615%. HIGH INFLATION 'VERY COSTLY'Inflation is expected to decline to 4.75% this year and only slow to around 3% by mid-2025, according to the RBA's latest forecasts. There are signs that consumers are finally pulling back on spending as cost of living surges and rate increases bite. "High inflation makes life difficult for people and damages the functioning of the economy. And if high inflation were to become entrenched in people's expectations, it would be very costly to reduce later," warned Lowe as he signalled the bank's intention to extend the tightening cycle.

☆ Australia c.bank raises rates to decade-high, warns more to come
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Wrapping up its February policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) said core inflation had been higher than expected and higher rates would be needed to ensure that inflation returns to its target of 2-3%. This was the ninth hike since last May, lifting rates by a total of 325 basis points. That led markets to double down on bets that the cash rate will have to peak nearer 3.85%, also in part to keep pace with the U.S. Federal Reserve. The Fed is now seen raising rates to above 5% to rein in still-strong price pressures. A Reuters poll of 31 analysts found 19 expected rates to peak at 3.60%, likely in March, and stay there all year.

☆ Take Five: The Bottom Line
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Australia and India's central banks are navigating the shifting sands of data and markets are digesting what the world's top central banks have to offer. The question is what impact this will have on bonds and stocks markets after a stellar January? Reuters Graphics4/ RUN RALLY, RUNIt was a stellar start to 2023 for markets - stocks and government bonds enjoyed one of the best Januaries on record, fuelled by optimism that the worst is over. That's not good for a central bank, nor is the idea that their communication is ineffective. Policy rate hikes and cuts by central banks overseeing the 10 most traded currencies.

☆ Australia Dec retail spending nosedives in warning for economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Retail sales fell 3.9% in December from November, after 11 months of consecutive gains, Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data showed on Tuesday, suggesting that rate hikes so far are working as intended. "The large fall in December suggests that retail spending is slowing due to high cost-of-living pressures," said Ben Dorber, ABS head of retail statistics. "With the impact of the 2022 rate hikes yet to be fully realised, we still expect two more hikes to be delivered in the first quarter." After the data, futures markets still priced in a hefty 85% chance the cash rate would be raised by a quarter-point next week to 3.35%. An analysis by UBS on Tuesday projects a sharp slowing in spending by those who hold "extra" cash savings to a well-below trend pace from mid-2023.

☆ Australia inflation surges further in Q4, more rate hikes loom
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Analysts had thought there was some chance the RBA might even pause its tightening campaign, but the sheer pace of inflation put paid to that. Price rises were broad-based with a closely watched measure of core inflation, the trimmed mean, rising 1.7% in the December quarter. Costs pressures were also building in the service sector which recorded its largest annual rise since 2008, driven by holiday travel, meals out and takeaway food. "Strong demand, particularly over the Christmas holiday period, contributed to price rises for domestic holiday travel and international air fares," said Michelle Marquardt, ABS head of prices statistics. With inflation pressures broadening yet further, markets moved to price in the risk of at least two more rate hikes from the RBA with swaps implying a peak above 3.60%.

☆ Australian Dec business conditions moderate, cost pressures ease - survey
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SYDNEY, Jan 24 (Reuters) - Australian businesses conditions moderated for a third straight month in December, while price pressures began to ease, pointing to a likely peak in inflation, according to a business survey issued on Tuesday. The survey from National Australia Bank Ltd (NAB) (NAB.AX) showed its index of business conditions had fallen 8 points to +12 in December, although it remained still well above its long-run average. The survey showed inflation easing across the board. The RBA's board will consider whether to raise its policy interest rate for a ninth time at its next meeting. That will still be below the forecast from the RBA for a peak inflation rate of around 8%.

☆ The CIO of a $14.6 billion firm explains why hunting for bargain stocks now could hurt investors in the long run as yesterday's market leaders like tech are overtaken by new companies — and shares whe
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

RBA's Dan Suzuki believes that bargain hunting for cheap stocks now may be an investing fallacy. Instead, investors should be focused on identifying tomorrow's market leaders. "That's the worst possible combination of macro factors for markets, so we're still pretty cautious in the outlook." He also listed examples of other real assets such as energy, manufacturing, and transportation infrastructure that require significant modernization. Playing offense in 2023Aside from high-quality defensive stocks, Suzuki also sees a few areas with attractive opportunities to play offense in this year.

☆ Analysis: Bank of Japan's yield curve control in danger as policy backfires
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-16 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

In a sign of its resolve to defend the yield cap, the BOJ on Monday announced plans to conduct additional, emergency bond-buying. To be sure, with global commodity prices falling, private analysts agree with Kuroda that inflation will slow back toward the BOJ's target later this year. It's better to remove the 10-year yield target, but overhauling YCC would raise questions of accountability." Data on Friday will likely show Japan's core consumer prices rose 4.0% in December, double the BOJ's target and a fresh 41-year high, a Reuters poll showed. "If markets continue to ask more from the BOJ, YCC may not last that long."

☆ Australia retail sales jump in November, inflation resumes climb
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-11 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Wednesday showed retail sales jumped 1.4% in November from October to a record A$35.9 billion ($24.7 billion). "High jet fuel prices combined with strong consumer demand in November pushed airfare prices up, with accommodation prices also rising," said Michelle Marquardt, ABS Head of Prices Statistics. The combination of robust consumption and still rising inflation underline the challenge facing the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) as it tries to cool the economy. "That underlines that interest-rate sensitive spending categories are feeling the pinch from the RBA's aggressive tightening last year," said Thieliant. ($1 = 1.4512 Australian dollars)Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman and Edwina GibbsOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Yen on defensive before BOJ; NZ dollar sinks
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] Banknotes of Japanese yen are seen in this illustration picture taken September 22, 2022. New Zealand's dollar dropped after a big decline in a survey of local business confidence. The Aussie, though, was little changed after shrugging off minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia's last policy meeting. Ten-year Treasury yields held at a one-week high of 3.601% in Tokyo trading. Those minutes reinforced the "uncertain outlook" for policy, providing an additional weight on the Australian dollar, said Sean Callow, a strategist at Westpac.

☆ Australia's central bank considered pausing hikes at Dec meeting, still sees more ahead
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SYDNEY, Dec 20 (Reuters) - Australia's central bank considered leaving interest rates unchanged at its December policy meeting, citing the lagged effects of the aggressive tightening delivered so far and the benefits of moving cautiously in an uncertain environment. However, it was the first time the Board considered pausing since it started raising interest rates in May. Markets are split on whether the RBA will go ahead with another 25 basis point or even pause. They expect interest rates to peak at about 3.7% by August next year. "The Board expects to increase interest rates further over the period ahead, but it is not on a pre-set path," said the bank, reiterating its commitment to bring inflation to its 2-3% target.

There's a reason investors are warned not to fight the Fed, but sometimes they still need to learn the hard way. When the second most powerful central bank in the world is standing shoulder to shoulder with the Fed too, markets are bound to get a bloody nose. And this is the economy into which central banks around the world are still jacking up interest rates? Annual core CPI inflation is expected to inch up to 3.7% in November from 3.6% in October, marking a fresh 41-year high. Will there be a Santa rally, even a mini one, in the last week before Christmas?

☆ Australia's RBA finds unexpected industry interest in an eAUD
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Interested entities ranged from large banks, financial market infrastructure providers and consultancies, to small digital asset firms and fintechs. The RBA intends to select a number of proposals to take forward into the pilot phase early next year. However, Jones cautioned that the actual adoption of a retail CBDC to replace cash would be revolutionary and come with costs and dangers that had yet to be addressed. Instead, it was possible household holdings of eAUD at the RBA would end up replacing deposits held by commercial banks, sapping their ability to lend. "Prior to crossing this Rubicon, a strong public interest case would first need to emerge," Jones concluded on adoption of a retail CBDC.

☆ Asia-Pacific markets fall after Wall Street slips; Australia's rate decision ahead
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Abigail Ng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Australia's central bank is expected to raise its cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.1% on Tuesday, according to economists polled by Reuters. That would be the Reserve Bank of Australia's eighth hike this year, and the third consecutive hike of 25 basis points since October. In a statement following its November meeting, the RBA said "the full effect" of the series of cash rate hikes lie ahead. Meanwhile, Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index, said there's potential for a pause in rate hikes further ahead. "Some measures of inflation expectations are moving lower, and the monthly inflation print suggests inflation has peaked."

☆ U.S. Treasury's Yellen 'practiced and practiced' her signature for U.S. bills
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( Ashitha Shivaprasad | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/2] U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen holds a news conference in the Cash Room at the U.S. Treasury Department in Washington, U.S. July 28, 2022. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst/File PhotoNEW YORK, Dec 1 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said she "practiced and practiced" writing the signature that will soon adorn U.S. dollars in order to avoid the illegible scrawls of her predecessors Tim Geithner and Jack Lew. "I knew this was something you could really screw up and I wanted to get it right, and I practiced and I practiced," Yellen told CBS's late-night comedian Stephen Colbert on Wednesday. "I am going to see the first sheets of currency that have been printed with both of our names," Yellen said. Dollar notes have been printed since Yellen took office in early 2021 with former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin's signature on them.

☆ Australia's central bank to limit forward guidance on interest rates
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

SYDNEY, Nov 15 (Reuters) - Australia's central bank intends to limit its use of forward guidance on policy after its usage during the pandemic drew criticism when rates were raised much earlier than previously envisaged. In a report published on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) said forward guidance would now be more qualitative in nature and would not always contain an outlook for interest rates. Guidance would be flexible and conditional on meeting the RBA's targets for unemployment and inflation, and would not include other factors such as wages. The RBA Board would continue to publish forecasts on the economy but would not provide its own forecasts for interest rates. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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