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David Gray | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesAustralia's central bank held its official cash rate steady at 4.10% in a closely watched decision Tuesday. Economists were split on expectations ahead of the decision, with 16 out of 31 respondents surveyed by Reuters forecasting a hike of 25 basis points and 15 expecting the central bank to hold. Stocks cheered the move as the central bank said inflation in the economy has "passed its peak." He added that the central bank will continue to closely monitor developments in the global economy, household spending trends and inflation forecasts. The central bank's decision to hold rates steady was to "assess" the effects of the multiple rate hikes so far, according to IG's Australia market analyst Tony Sycamore.
Persons: David Gray, Stocks, RBA, Philip Lowe, Lowe, Tony Sycamore, , Sycamore Organizations: Sydney Opera House, Getty, Reuters, U.S ., Australia Bureau, Statistics, CNBC Locations: Australia
European stocks were cautiously higher Thursday as investors assessed commentary from leading central bankers on the need to continue the fight against inflation. The pan-European Stoxx 600 nudged 0.3% higher by late morning, with retail stocks adding 1.7% to lead gains while travel and leisure stocks fell 0.4%. A further message from the conference this week has been on market pricing of swift interest rate cuts from the ECB. The Stoxx 600 closed 0.7% higher Wednesday after staging a cautious turnaround from six straight negative sessions on Tuesday. U.S. futures were slightly higher as banks rose after passing the Federal Reserve's annual stress test.
Persons: Christine Lagarde, Andrew Bailey, Jerome Powell, Powell, Lagarde, England's Bailey, Philip Lane, Chipmakers Organizations: CNBC, European Central Bank, Wednesday, Bank of England, Federal, ECB, Journal Locations: Sintra , Portugal, U.S, China, Asia, Pacific
European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane on Tuesday warned markets against pricing in cuts to interest rates within the next two years. Earlier this month, the ECB hiked its main rate by 25 basis points to 3.5%, making the latest in a series of increases since July 2022, as policymakers strive to reel in record-high inflation in the euro zone. Headline inflation across the bloc came in at an annual 6.1% in May, down from 7% the previous month. "Where I do think the market should ask itself questions is about the timing or the speed of reversal of restrictive policy," Lane said. His comments echoed those of ECB President Christine Lagarde, who said in a keynote address Tuesday that the central bank had made "significant progress" but "cannot declare victory yet."
Persons: Philip Lane, CNBC's Annette Weisbach, Lane, it's, Christine Lagarde Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, Central Bank of Ireland Locations: Sintra, Portugal
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailECB chief economist: It will take years for ECB to reach inflation targetPhilip Lane, chief economist at the ECB, discusses his economic outlook for inflation in Europe.
Persons: Philip Lane Organizations: ECB Locations: Europe
Australia to decide fate of central bank chief in July
  + stars: | 2023-06-22 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
[1/2] Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Philip Lowe attends the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting in Nusa Dua, Bali, Indonesia, 16 July 2022. Treasurer Jim Chalmers told reporters on Thursday he would announce his decision on Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe's future in coming weeks, but would not be drawn on whether Lowe would keep his job. The clamour of criticism, particularly in the media, led Chalmers to launch an independent review of the central bank which recommended sweeping changes in its operation and the way policy was formed. "Obviously, the Reserve Bank Governor needs to be well placed to implement the recommendations of the review and to take the Reserve Bank into the future," said Chalmers. Possible replacements being touted are the current deputy governor Michele Bullock, Treasury official Jenny Wilkinson and former Bank of Canada official Carolyn Wilkins, who also led the review into the RBA.
Persons: Philip Lowe, Jim Chalmers, Philip Lowe's, Lowe, I’m, we'd, Chalmers, Michele Bullock, Jenny Wilkinson, Carolyn Wilkins, Wayne Cole, Renju Jose, Leslie Adler Organizations: Reserve Bank of Australia, Ministers, Central Bank Governors, Reserve Bank Governor, Bank, Treasury, Bank of Canada, Thomson Locations: Nusa Dua, Bali, Indonesia
Morning Bid: Ready for more rate hikes, and one cut
  + stars: | 2023-06-19 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
June 19 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole. It's been predictably subdued in Asia as a U.S. holiday provides a convenient excuse for stocks to consolidate recent hefty gains before a bevy of central bank meetings this week. Most indices are down, with the Nikkei off modestly having climbed 22% over a 10-week streak to hit 33-year highs. The coming week is also jammed with central bank action, led by China on Tuesday where prime loan rates are expected to be cut by 10 basis points. Futures seem unimpressed with just 21 basis points of tightening priced in by September, though one final hike in July is rated as a decent 70% chance.
Persons: Wayne Cole, It's, Antony Blinken's, deigned, Kazuo Ueda, Jerome Powell, Isabel Schnabel, Luis de Guindos, Philip Lane, Sam Holmes Organizations: Nikkei, NASDAQ, Bank of Japan, Federal, Bank of, ECB, Thomson Locations: Wayne, Asia, U.S, Beijing, China, Bank of England, Norway, Switzerland
An Atlantic article published Saturday described orcas as "sadistic jerks" in nature. This is after a string of boat attacks involving orca whales off the coast of Spain and Portugal. Orcas off the coast of Spain and Portugal, potentially inspired by a female whale named White Gladis, are sinking ships and destroying vessels. One person pointed out that they were called killer whales for a reason. After a recent spike in orca-boat incidents off the southern European coast over the past few months, orca attacks on boats are happening daily and may continue to ramp up.
Persons: , White Gladis, orcas, they've, Jacob Stern, They're, Whales, Philip Lewis, Laura Bassett, Jezebel, Stern Organizations: Service, Twitter Locations: Spain, Portugal
Take Five: Keep calm and raise rates
  + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
June 16 (Reuters) - The Bank of England is facing a stormy gilts market while Turkey's new governor is expected to ramp up rates sharply at central bank meetings in the week to come. Markets show traders are placing an almost one-in-five chance the BoE will raise rates by half a point next week, up from near zero at the start of June. Reuters Graphics2/ECONOMIC CHECK UPA raft of decidedly hawkish noises from big central banks - including the Fed - has once again raised questions about how much central bank tightening is accelerating a global slowdown. U.S. manufacturing contracted for a seventh straight month, as new orders continued to plummet amid higher interest rates. May's blockbuster employment report could also provide more leeway for the RBA to tighten rates further.
Persons: Antony Blinken, Kevin Buckland, Lewis Krauskopf, Amanda Cooper, Karin Strohecker, BoE, confab, Philip Lowe, Ajay Banga, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Tayyip Erdogan, Erdogan, Mehmet Simsek, Philippa Fletcher Organizations: Bank of England, U.S, Reuters, Reserve Bank of, Investors, Ukraine, Conference, New, Pact, World Bank, Thomson Locations: Beijing, London, Paris, Tokyo, New York, United States, Europe, Japan, U.S, Australia, China, Dnipro, Ukraine
The bond yield curve, which was already inverted to signal risks of a recession, inverted further after the jobs report, with the spread between ten-year and three-year government bond yields turning negative. "The labour market remains very tight, which will contribute to stronger wage growth over 2023," said Sean Langcake, head of macroeconomic forecasting for Oxford Economics Australia. "The RBA has maintained a hawkish tone following the June rate rise, expressing concerns over the persistence of underlying inflation. Job advertisements were mostly steady in May after three months of declines and remained 52% above pre-COVID levels. Reporting by Stella Qiu; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman and Sonali PaulOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Sean Langcake, Langcake, Philip Lowe, Stella Qiu, Muralikumar Anantharaman, Sonali Paul Organizations: SYDNEY, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Reserve Bank of Australia, Oxford Economics, Thomson Locations: Oxford Economics Australia
Australia's central bank owes underpaid workers over $770,000
  + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
SYDNEY, June 14 (Reuters) - Australia's central bank will pay out just over A$1 million in back pay after an internal review found on Wednesday the bank had systematically underpaid more than a thousand current and former employees. A review into the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) "more complex remuneration arrangements" identified 1,173 current and former staff owed roughly A$1.15 million ($777,975), according to a statement on Wednesday. Most of the money owed came from leave entitlements that should have been paid out when staff left the bank, the bank said. The bank should be setting an example for the broader sector on pay and was right to apologise, according to Julia Angrisano, national secretary of the Finance Sector Union. ($1 = 1.4782 Australian dollars)Reporting by Lewis Jackson; Editing by Kim CoghillOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Julia Angrisano, Philip Lowe, Lewis Jackson, Kim Coghill Organizations: SYDNEY, Reserve Bank of Australia's, Finance Sector Union, BHP, PricewaterhouseCoopers, Thomson Locations: Australia
For a year, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe has been talking of successfully navigating a narrow path to lower inflation while keeping unemployment near 50-year lows. He expects quarterly growth to average just a 0.1% over the next four quarters, with a 50% chance that the economy would enter a recession. Jonathan Kearns, chief economist at investment firm Challenger and a former RBA executive, says the risk of trying to hold on to job gains was that higher inflation expectations hardened and kept the actual inflation rate high. And pushing rates higher is increasing the chance that Australia goes into a recession," said Kearns, who headed the RBA's domestic markets department until earlier this year. A survey of union officials cited by Lowe showed that medium-term inflation expectations have risen to a 3-4% range.
Persons: Philip Lowe, Lowe, Paul Bloxham, HSBC's, Bloxham, Jonathan Kearns, Kearns, Ivan Colhoun, Stella Qiu, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: CBA, HSBC, SYDNEY, Reserve Bank of Australia, Global Commodities, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Challenger, National Australia Bank, Thomson Locations: Australia, New Zealand
CNBC Daily Open: Beware the real shrinkflation
  + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. What's scarier is the shrinkflation that's happening in economies. But it's still "too high" and "set to remain so for too long," said European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde. But with April's inflation jumping more than expected to 6.8%, the central bank seems compelled to slow the economy further. Yesterday's gains in markets is certainly welcome, but investors should beware shrinkflation hitting the U.S. economy as well.
Persons: Christine Lagarde, Philip Lowe, shrinkflation Organizations: CNBC, European Central Bank, Reserve Bank of Australia, Federal Reserve Locations: Brussels, Belgium, Canada, Australia, U.S
View of the building which houses the headquarters of the European Economic and Social Committee and the European Committee of the Regions on April 28, 2023 in Brussels, Belgium. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. But it's still "too high" and "set to remain so for too long," said European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde. But with April's inflation jumping more than expected to 6.8%, the central bank seems compelled to slow the economy further.
Persons: Christine Lagarde, Philip Lowe, shrinkflation Organizations: European Economic, Social Committee, European Committee of, Regions, CNBC, European Central Bank, Reserve Bank of Australia, Federal Reserve Locations: Brussels, Belgium, Canada, Australia, U.S
Dollar eases as chances for a U.S. rate rise ebb
  + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
LONDON, June 7 (Reuters) - The dollar dipped on Wednesday as chances faded for a rate hike next week by the Federal Reserve, while the Canadian dollar touched one-month highs as traders amped up bets for the country to raise rates and the Turkish lira hit record lows. "Over the last month or so, we've seen the market slowly pricing out the risks of a 2023 interest rate cut. Nonetheless, traders were attaching a higher chance that the BoC would raise Canadian interest rates again later on Wednesday. Against the dollar, sterling rose 0.3% to $1.2456, while the Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 139.40 and the euro rose 0.2% to $1.0718. Elsewhere, the Turkish lira slid as much as 7.6% to a record low of 23.16 per U.S. dollar.
Persons: Philip Lowe, Jane Foley, we've, Foley, Siong Sim, bitcoin, Coinbase, Binance, Zhao, Binance's, Rae Wee, Clarence Fernandez, William Maclean Organizations: Federal Reserve, Australian, Reserve Bank, U.S ., Rabobank, BoC, U.S, Canadian, Fed, Bank of Singapore, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, SEC, Thomson Locations: U.S, CHINA, China, Turkish, Singapore
Dollar adrift as traders assess Fed options; Aussie buoyant
  + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
In the broader currency market, the U.S. dollar dipped in early Asia trade, as traders pared back their expectations of a rate hike at next week's FOMC meeting. Against the greenback, sterling rose 0.08% to $1.2432, while the kiwi gained 0.08% to $0.6084. "We don't think the FOMC will hike next week ... but risks again are skewed to the upside," said Kong. The U.S. dollar index slipped 0.03% to 104.05, while the euro rose 0.07% to $1.0698. CRYPTO SHAKEOUTIn the cryptoverse, bitcoin , the world's biggest cryptocurrency, was last marginally higher at $27,273, after jumping nearly 6% on Tuesday.
Persons: Philip Lowe, Carol Kong, Lowe, CRYPTO, Coinbase, Binance, Changpeng Zhao, Tony Sycamore, Rae Wee, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: Federal Reserve, Australian, Reserve Bank of Australia's, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, U.S, Fed, The U.S, European Central Bank, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, SEC, IG Markets, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, U.S, The, Turkish
Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday showed real gross domestic product (GDP) rose 0.2% in the first quarter, easing from 0.5% in the previous quarter and under forecasts of 0.3%. Annual growth came in at 2.3%, also missing forecasts for 2.4% expansion. The report contained initial signs that domestic price pressures are easing and evidence that households are saving less to meet high costs of livings and rising mortgage rates. Household consumption rose only a meagre 0.2% in the March quarter, contributing 0.1% percentage points to GDP, mostly from spending on essential goods and services. Reporting by Stella Qiu Editing by Shri NavaratnamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Price, Philip Lowe, Stella Qiu, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: SYDNEY, Australian Bureau, Statistics, Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson
For the record, exports posted a bigger-than-expected drop of 7.5% year-on-year, sending the trade surplus to a 13-month low, while imports remained mired in negative territory. Indeed, RBA Governor Philip Lowe was still explaining Tuesday's policy decision in a speech to bankers after the central bank wrong-footed economists who predicted there would be a rate pause for a second straight month. Expectations of a follow-up hike in July cushioned the Aussie from the weak Chinese trade numbers and Australia's own below-forecast first-quarter gross domestic product data. Stock markets in Asia were mixed, as were U.S. equity futures, following a slightly firmer finish on Wall Street. Light positioning could well persist into next week's lineup of major central bank meetings, as the earnings season draws to a close.
Persons: Sonali Desai China's, Philip Lowe, Fabio Panetta, Edouard Fernandez, Bollo, Luis de Guindos, Klaas, Sonali Desai, Edmund Klamann Organizations: Reuters, Bank, Bank of Canada, Stock, U.S, Thomson Locations: Beijing, Europe, Asia, Brussels
Cargo ships stop at their berths to load and unload containers at the container terminal in Lianyungang Port, East China's Jiangsu province, June 5, 2023. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.25%, ahead of Australia's first quarter GDP numbers. The country's economy is expected to expand 2.4% year-on-year, slightly slower than the 2.7% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2022. Japan stocks were higher, with the Nikkei 225 inching closer to the 33,000 level and rising 0.47%. South Korea's markets came back from a public holiday with a positive start, with the Kospi climbing 0.28% and the Kosdaq up by 0.6%.
Persons: Philip Lowe Organizations: Reserve Bank of Australia, Nikkei Locations: Lianyungang Port, East China's Jiangsu, Asia, Pacific, Australia, Australia's, Japan, South
Loop Images | Universal Images Group | Getty ImagesAustralia's first-quarter gross domestic product expanded by 2.3% year-on-year, just slightly below analyst expectations. "Private and public gross fixed capital formation were the main drivers of GDP growth this quarter," Keenan said. The GDP readings are key to the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision making process for its monetary policy. In this "narrow path" that Lowe envisions, Australia's inflation returns to its 2% to 3% target range, the economy continues to grow, and gains in the labor market are preserved. But it is a narrow path and likely to be a bumpy one, with risks on both sides," Lowe said.
Persons: Katherine Keenan, Keenan, Philip Lowe, Lowe, " Lowe Organizations: Getty, Reuters, Australia's Bureau, Statistics, lockdowns, Reserve Bank, Reserve Bank of Australia, Morgan Stanley Australia Summit Locations: Melbourne, Australia
Lamp posts in front of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) building in Sydney, Australia, on Monday, Feb. 6, 2023. The Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday again defied market expectations, raising its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4.1%. Economists polled by Reuters were widely expecting the central bank to hold rates steady. Reserve Bank of Australia's Governor Philip Lowe said while inflation in the nation may have "passed its peak," there are still indicators showing inflation persisting. The central bank's target for inflation is a range between 2% to 3%.
Persons: Philip Lowe, Lowe Organizations: Reserve Bank of Australia, Reuters, U.S, Reserve Bank, Australia's Locations: Sydney, Australia
The Reserve Bank of Australia delivers its latest interest rate decision on Tuesday, undoubtedly the centerpiece event for Asian and Pacific markets but potentially of interest to U.S. Fed watchers too. Interest rate futures markets currently attach a 66% chance the RBA pauses, and a one-in-three chance it raises the cash rate by a quarter point to 4.10%. Holders of Australian assets will be pay particularly close attention to policymakers' statement and RBA governor Philip Lowe's press conference after the decision for guidance. Here are three key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Tuesday:- Australia interest rate decision- Australia current account (Q1)- Japan household spending (April)By Jamie McGeever;Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Persons: Jamie McGeever, Philip Lowe's Organizations: Reserve Bank of Australia, Fed, Reserve, Australian, Apple, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, Australia, Japan
REUTERS/David GrayThe Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised rates last month after pausing in April, confounding financial markets and a majority of economists who were expecting the central bank to hold. The remaining eight in the poll taken between May 29 and June 1 poll expected a 25 basis point hike. Interest rate futures were pricing in a roughly one-in-three chance of a rate hike then. More than half of respondents, or 18 of 28, expected rates to reach 4.10% or higher by end-September, including four who saw rates at 4.35%. The remaining 10 expected rates to stay at 3.85%.
Persons: David Gray, Philip Lowe, “ we’ve, , Taylor Nugent, ” Nugent, Gareth Aird Organizations: Reserve Bank of Australia, REUTERS, David Gray The Reserve Bank of Australia, ANZ, CBA, NAB, Westpac, Economics Locations: BENGALURU, Sydney, Australia
Australia hikes minimum wage as living costs surge
  + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
REUTERS/Steven Saphore/File PhotoSYDNEY, June 2 (Reuters) - Australia will raise the minimum wage by 5.75% from July 1 as families grapple with soaring living costs, a decision that businesses and some economists say risks further stoking inflation and interest rates. The independent Fair Work Commission (FWC) on Friday decided on a 5.75% pay rise for workers on awards with wages linked to movement in the minimum wage. It also made a technical reclassification for the national minimum wage, which the union says will take the increase to 8.6% for the lowest-paid employees, about 0.7% of the workforce. "Following several recent developments, including the outcome of today's minimum wage decision, we are adding a 25bp hike to our RBA profile in June and another 25bp in July." "Today's increase means these workers can keep their heads above water and not have to cut back even further."
Persons: Steven Saphore, Lin Ong, Philip Lowe, Taylor Nugent, Adam Hatcher, Hatcher, Andrew McKellar, Sally McManus, Stella Qiu, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: REUTERS, RBC Capital Markets, Reserve Bank of Australia, National Australia Bank, Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Australian Council of Trade Unions, Thomson Locations: Sydney, Australia, Lincoln
SYDNEY, May 31 (Reuters) - The Reserve Bank of Australia will not sign any new contracts with PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) Australia until a scandal over the firm's misuse of confidential government tax plans is sorted out, the central bank's governor said on Wednesday. The "big four" firm is on the defense after a former Australian tax partner who was consulting with the government on laws to prevent corporate tax avoidance shared confidential drafts with colleagues to drum up business around the world. As of May 16, the government had committed to contracts worth A$255 million ($173 million) with PwC in the current financial year alone, a finance department official told a parliamentary hearing last week. "(We) have taken the decision to enter no new contracts with PwC until a satisfactory response has been forthcoming," Lowe said. APRA had also spoken with major Australian banks about their ties to PwC, as recently as last week, added Lonsdale.
Persons: Philip Lowe, " Lowe, John Lonsdale, Lonsdale, Steven Kennedy, Kristin Stubbins, PwC, Lewis Jackson, Sonali Paul Organizations: SYDNEY, Reserve Bank of Australia, PricewaterhouseCoopers, PwC, Prudential Regulation Authority, APRA, prudential, Thomson Locations: Australia, Australian
The Australian dollar is sliding towards a fourth consecutive monthly loss and at $0.6492 is barely above last week's seven-month lows. Aussie stocks (.AXJO) are eying their worst month since February with a 2.4% drop. Based on these factors, we raise our end-2023 targets for Japanese stocks, to 2,300 for TOPIX and 32,500 for the Nikkei 225." Benchmark 10-year yields dropped 12.4 basis points overnight and fell another 1.5 bps on Wednesday in Asian trade to 3.6808%. The drop in yields put a pause in what looks to be the U.S. dollar's best monthly rally since February.
Persons: stockmarkets, Carol Kong, Masashi Akutsu, Joe Biden, Treasuries, Philip Lowe, Sam Holmes Organizations: Nikkei, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, of America, Republican, Brent, Thomson Locations: China, Asia, Japan, SINGAPORE, Pacific, U.S, United States
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