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As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: It's, Dow, Jim Cramer's takeaways, Cowen, Bernstein, Davidson, Dr Pepper, Morgan Stanley, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim Organizations: Micron, Jefferies, Costco, Nasdaq, Intel, Qualcomm, Apollo Global Management, JPMorgan, Nike, Dow, General Motors, Microsoft, Club, Holdings, Bank of America, Citi, Apple, Barclays, Constellation Energy, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC Locations: San Francisco
CNBC Daily Open: Recession concerns still linger
  + stars: | 2024-09-23 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Brendan McDermid | ReutersThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. In terms of financial markets, financial firm BTIG sees a possible pullback. Last week's burst of euphoria was mostly driven by anticipation and celebration of the Fed's rate cut. Markets this week will look at the hard data coming out, like the preliminary measure of PMI, consumer confidence and PCE report.
Persons: QCOM, Brendan McDermid, It's, Piper Sandler, Nancy Lazar, Lazar, BTIG, Jonathan Krinsky, , Alex Harring, Hakyung Kim, Brian Evans Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Reuters, CNBC, Friday, FedEx, Nasdaq, Dow, PMI Locations: New York City, U.S
The Dow Jones Industrial Average topped 42,000 this week for the first time ever, while the S & P 500 breached the 5,700 milestone, after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a half-percentage point. "A lot holds in the balance of the next couple or few days," said Katie Stockton, founder at Fairlead Strategies. .SPX 5D mountain S & P 500 On Friday, the 30-stock Dow, the S & P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite each closed higher by more than 1% for the week. The breakout is "'pending confirmation,'" Stockton said. Overall, Stockton expects that the longer-term setup for the S & P 500 is "a bit overdone."
Persons: Katie Stockton, Stockton, That's, Sam Stovall, Gee, Christopher Waller, Jerome Powell, Stovall Organizations: Dow Jones, Federal Reserve, Dow, Nasdaq, Stockton, CFRA, Fed, Chicago, PMI, Richmond Fed, New, Micron Technology, Transportation, . Kansas City Fed Manufacturing, Costco Wholesale, PCE Deflator, PCE Locations: . Kansas, Michigan
US stocks traded mixed as traders reacted to a mixed inflation report. Core consumer prices rose more than expected, reducing chances of a 50 basis-point rate cut. AdvertisementUS stocks traded mixed on Wednesday, with investors staging a recovery after taking in a mixed inflation report. Odds for a 50 basis-point cut have been slashed by more than half to just 15%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Markets will assess August producer price inflation data and weekly jobless claims on Thursday and fresh retail sales data next Tuesday.
Persons: , Bill Adams, Jensen Huang, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Service, Dow Jones, Traders, Comercia Bank, Bank of America, Tech, Nvidia, Here's
Stubbornly high core inflation virtually cemented the likelihood of a quarter percentage point cut from the Federal Reserve, which historically has avoided larger moves unless absolutely necessary. Shelter inflation is putting a floor under the CPI and likely keeping the Fed from reducing interest rates by more 25 basis points. "History back to 1990 supports the idea that an initial Fed rate cut of 50 basis points signals an imminent recession (2001 and 2007). "Their first cut will almost certainly be 25 basis points," Colas said. But the Fed, which targets inflation at 2%, prefers core readings as a better longer-term gauge for inflation.
Persons: Dow Jones, , Nick Colas, Jerome Powell, Colas, That's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department, CPI, Fed, Traders, Open Market, PCE
The good news outweighs the bad Seasonality aside, the market is riding a wave of momentum, and with good reason: 1) The market "broadening" trend is very real. At Jackson Hole, chairman Jerome Powell made it clear that the Fed had shifted its attention from fighting inflation to the job market. S&P 500 in September: It's been ugly recently (rounded) 2023: down 5%2022: down 9%2021: down 5%2020: down 4% The elections are another wildcard. Two-thirds of the S&P 500 was up in August. Most importantly, the Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) modestly outperformed the S&P 500 in August and closed Friday at an historic high.
Persons: Frank Gretz, Wellington Shields, Robert Hum, It's, Consumer Staples, Jerome Powell, David Smith, Brendan McDermid Organizations: Dow, NASDAQ, Russell, NYSE, Megacap Tech, Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Consumer, Estate, Technology, American Association of, Bulls, PCE, Fed, Rockland Trust, CNBC, Traders, New York Stock Exchange Locations: Wellington, Meta, Rockland, New York City, U.S
Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core PCE also increased 0.2% for the month but was up 2.6% from a year ago. Core prices less housing, another key metric for the Fed, increased just 0.1% on the month. Elsewhere in the report, the department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said personal income increased 0.3%, slightly higher than the 0.2% estimate, while consumer spending rose 0.5%, in line with the forecast. Markets reacted little to the news, with equity futures pointing to a slightly higher open on Wall Street and Treasury yields higher as well. In recent days, policymakers such as Chair Jerome Powell have expressed confidence that inflation is progressing back to the Fed's 2% goal.
Persons: Dow, Joseph Brusuelas, Jerome Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Dow Jones, Fed, department's, BEA, Treasury, RSM
While the Fed uses a whole dashboard of indicators to measure inflation, the PCE index is its go-to data point and its sole forecasting tool when members release their quarterly projections. Policymakers especially hone in on the core PCE measure, which excludes food and energy, when making interest rate decisions. "To me, it's going to be just one more piece of evidence to confirm that the Fed is seeing sustainable inflation readings at a sustainable pace," said Beth Ann Bovino, chief economist at U.S. Bank. Any slight upticks are "really just base-effect kinds of things that aren't going to change the Fed's view." Fed officials aren't declaring victory over inflation yet, though recent statements indicate a more positive outlook.
Persons: Dow Jones, Beth Ann Bovino, aren't Organizations: Federal, Commerce Department, Fed, Labor, Dow, U.S . Bank
In recent weeks, Wall Street has placed greater emphasis on jobs data as investors try to gauge the health of the U.S. economy. As we've seen at various points this summer, political developments may also be influencing moves on Wall Street. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Stocks, Jerome Powell's, Powell, Stanley Black, Decker, Jim, It's, chipmaker's, Kamala Harris, Harris, Jim Cramer's Organizations: CNBC, Federal, Jackson, Decker, Nvidia, Blackwell, Democratic National Convention, Jim Cramer's Charitable Locations: U.S
NVDA YTD mountain Nvidia Wall Street is bullish heading into Nvidia's earnings results next week, figuring any hiccups to its next generation AI chips does little to dim the earnings potential of a company that essentially has a monopoly on the market. Economists polled by FactSet anticipate PCE to show increases of 0.2% month on month and 2.6% from the year-earlier period. Wall Street anticipates that stocks could go higher from here, though the road from now to the end of the year could be bumpy. Other notable earnings results include tech names Salesforce and CrowdStrike, as well as consumer names such as Campbell Soup, Dollar General and Ulta Beauty. Earnings: Nvidia , Bath & Body Works , J. M. Smucker , Salesforce , CrowdStrike , NetApp , HP Thursday Aug. 29 8:30 a.m.
Persons: Nvidia's, chipmaker, they've, Harsh Kumar, Piper Sandler, Blackwell, Jensen Huang, Jim Cramer, Kumar, Louis Navellier, Jerome Powell, Jackson, Powell, FactSet, David Miller, Miller, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, He's, Campbell, Lululemon Organizations: Nvidia, Blackwell, Navellier, Associates, Federal Reserve, PCE, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, U.S, Catalyst Funds, Ulta, Dallas Fed, Richmond Fed, Body, HP, Autodesk, PCE Deflator, Chicago PMI Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Chicago, Michigan
Stocks are up since last week's sell-off but there's still reason to be cautious, Stifel's Barry Bannister said. He reiterated his expectation for a 10% market correction to push the S&P 500 to 5,000 by October. If the economy keeps slowing and eventually enters a recession, a bear market is imminent as inflation remains sticky, Stifel's chief strategist Barry Bannister said in a Tuesday interview on CNBC. While the Federal Reserve targets a PCE of 2.8%, Bannister expects the central bank to target closer to 3% by the fourth quarter due to persistent housing inflation. Weak GDP, consumption, fixed asset investment and net export data expected in the second half of the year also don't bode well for the economy, Bannister added.
Persons: Stocks, Stifel's Barry Bannister, Bannister, , Barry Bannister, " Bannister, bode Organizations: Service, CNBC, Federal Reserve
We've explained how current high-yield savings accounts beat inflation rates, and what Fed rate cuts mean for your savings. How does inflation affect savingsIn order to understand how high-yield savings accounts beat inflation, you first have to understand what inflation is. Dixon says that, while high-yield savings accounts are good for shorter-term savings such as emergency funds, investing can be a good longer-term strategy — as long as you understand the risk. If your savings aren't kept in a high-yield savings account, the interest you earn on your savings could be outpaced by the current inflation rate. Using a high-yield savings account can help you save your savings from inflation because current high-yield savings account rates are higher than current inflation rates.
Persons: , We've, Patrina Dixon, there's, Dorsainvil, Dixon, it's, aren't Organizations: Service, Business, Federal Reserve, Consumer, Dorsainvil, YGC, CME, Am Locations: CFEI, U.S
ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was down by over three basis points to 4.1666%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 4.3729% after falling by more than one basis point. U.S. Treasury yields fell on Monday as investors awaited the release of key economic data and looked to the Federal Reserve's meeting scheduled for the week. Investors awaited the Federal Reserve's July meeting and key data from the labor market slated for the week. Investors will be looking at the data for hints about the state of the labor market, as this could also inform monetary policy expectations and decision-making.
Persons: Jerome Powell Organizations: Treasury, Investors, PCE
As for Club earnings, we got positive results from life sciences company Danaher and industrial firm Dover. Ford was a major disappointment and its nearly 20% stock drop for the week was the worst performer in the portfolio. In the week ahead, it's going to be another big week of earnings with the four mega-cap names and 10 other Club names set to report. Linde : We're looking for more of the same — steady earnings growth; 6% is the Street estimate. End market commentary will also help us better formulate our view of the economy — and in turn the stock market.
Persons: Russell, Jerome Powell's, Ford, Stanley Black, Decker, We're, we'll, Elliott, we've, We'll, Kraft Heinz, Vita Coco, COCO, Lam, SIRI, WEN, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Michael M Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow, Communication, Honeywell, YouTube, Procter & Gamble, Devices, Microsoft, Starbucks, GE Healthcare, DuPont, Meta, Apple, Coterra Energy, Linde, Silo AI, Elliott Management, GE HealthCare, Amazon, Apple Intelligence, U.S, Labor, Fed, Networks, Procter, Gamble, PayPal, Pfizer, BP, JetBlue Airways, Merck, Solar Inc, Caesars Entertainment, Electronic Arts, EA, Nation Entertainment, Boeing, Cruise, Mastercard, Teva Pharmaceutical, Hess Corp, Arm Holdings, Qualcomm, Lam Research, Western, eBay, EBAY, MGM Resorts, MGM, ConocoPhillips, Mobileye, Canada Goose Holdings, Hershey, Toyota, Dominion Energy, Air Products & Chemicals, Southern Company, International, Coterra Energy Intel, Coinbase, Booking Holdings, LIN, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, LyondellBasell Industries, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, Traders, New York Stock Exchange, Santiago, Getty Locations: Dover, Eaton, Amazon, China, destocking, Corning, New York City
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNew PCE data puts rate cuts 'into cement,' says Moody's Mark ZandiMark Zandi, Moody's Analytics chief economist, and CNBC's Steve Liesman join 'The Exchange' to discuss reactions to new PCE data, paths to Fed rate cuts, and more.
Persons: Mark Zandi Mark Zandi, Steve Liesman
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailStill premature to talk about a dramatic amount of rate cuts coming, says Apollo's Torsten SlokTorsten Slok, Apollo Global Management chief economist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the June's PCE inflation data, impact on the Fed's inflation fight, state of the economy, rate path outlook, and more.
Persons: Apollo's Torsten Slok Torsten Slok Organizations: Apollo Global Management
Improving news on inflation again has raised investors' hopes that the Federal Reserve soon will start to aggressively lower interest rates. Futures market pricing now indicates that while the Fed will remain on hold at next week's policy meeting, it will commence cutting in September and move again in November and December. The market-implied probability for a September cut nudged up to about 90% Friday morning, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool that measures fed funds futures pricing. Traders in early 2024 were pricing in at least six cuts this year, but the central bank's rate-setting group has remained on hold for a year. Following the two-day meeting that concludes next Wednesday, the Fed meeting schedule is empty for August, save for the all-important annual conclave in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
Persons: Joseph Brusuelas, , Jerome Powell, Christopher Waller Organizations: Federal Reserve, Friday's Commerce Department, RSM, Traders, Federal Open, Fed Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming
Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementUS stocks rose Friday morning, regaining momentum after three days of losses. Instead, investors indicated 87.7% odds of a 25-basis point cut, and 11.9% odds of a 50-basis point cut. This week, creeping doubt in large-cap tech stocks rally spurred investors to rotate out of the sector, pulling both indexes down 3.67% and 2.6% through the past week, respectively.
Persons: , Fitch, Olu Sonola Organizations: Nasdaq, Service, PCE, Federal, Treasury Locations: Here's
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailYou're not going to get value moving until the Fed drops rates, says Wharton's Jeremy SiegelJeremy Siegel, professor emeritus of finance at University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business and Wisdom Tree chief economist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, what to expect from June's PCE inflation data today, impact on the Fed's interest rate decision, and more.
Persons: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel Jeremy Siegel Organizations: University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business
Fed officials use the PCE measure as their main baseline to gauge inflation, which continues to run above the central bank's 2% long-range target. An important gauge for the Federal Reserve showed inflation eased slightly from a year ago in June, helping to open the way for a widely anticipated September interest rate cut. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, showed a monthly increase of 0.2% and 2.6% on the year, both also in line with expectations. Goods prices fell 0.2% on the month, while services increased 0.2%. The report also indicated that personal income rose just 0.2%, below the 0.4% estimate.
Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Commerce Department, Federal Reserve, Fed
CNN —Yet another favorable piece of economic data shows that price hikes are slowing and that long-unruly inflation appears to be tamed. On a monthly basis, the price index increased by 0.1%, also landing in line with expectations. Falling energy prices, which dropped 2.1% from May, continued to help put a damper on overall inflation in June, as did goods prices, which dropped 0.2%. Food and services inflation increased just 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively, for the month. Taking inflation out of the equation, real spending was still up for the month, rising 0.2%.
Organizations: CNN, Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Commerce
The data didn't sway the market odds on the Fed cutting interest rates three times this year, starting in September. The industrial conglomerate raised its full-year outlook. Two of the Club's industrial names, Honeywell and Dover , reported earnings this week with mixed fortunes for their stocks. Dexcom shares plunged more than 35% after the medical device company missed on revenue and cut its full-year outlook. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.
Persons: Bristol Myers, Abbott, Skechers, Lockheed Martin, L3Harris, Japan's Eisai, Eli Lilly, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim Organizations: Nasdaq, Federal, Transportation, Electronics, Honeywell, Colgate, Palmolive, Abbott Laboratories, Libre, Deutsche Bank, Lockheed, EU, Novo Nordisk, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC Locations: Dover
Shares of Stanley Black & Decker were on the move again Friday, adding another 7%, following the morning release of the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation gauge. We've said all along that Stanley Black & Decker would benefit from lower borrowing costs. Stanley Black & Decker brands, which also include Dewalt and Craftsman, are needed for that kind of work. Stanley Black & Decker trim SWK YTD mountain Stanley Black & Decker YTD With Stanley Black & Decker set to deliver earnings Tuesday and its stock now up more than 10% this week, the bar for a strong quarterly print is that much higher. That's why we're leaving a nice-sized chunk of Stanley Black & Decker shares in our portfolio going into the report.
Persons: Stanley Black, Decker, Jim Cramer's, We've, We're, we're, Jim Cramer, Jim Organizations: Stanley, CNBC
ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was up by less than one basis point at 4.2563%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 4.4307% after falling by over one basis point. U.S. Treasury yields were little changed on Friday as investors awaited the release of key inflation data ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming monetary policy meeting next week. Those are some of the last key economic data releases before the Fed meets next week to discuss monetary policy. The inflation figures come after economic data throughout the week have given mixed signals about the state of the economy.
Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Treasury, Federal, PCE, Fed, U.S, PMI
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFormer Fed Vice Chair Roger Ferguson on June PCE and rate cut timelineFormer Federal Reserve Vice Chair Roger Ferguson discusses his expectations for June PCE, inflation, and rate cuts.
Persons: Roger Ferguson Organizations: Former, PCE, Federal
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