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LONDON, April 27 (Reuters) - The nickel market is facing a massive supply glut this year as surging Indonesian production continues to outpace global demand. The INSG expects only "mild growth" in the stainless sector this year. Taking up the slack from a weak stainless sector is demand for nickel from the electric vehicle (EV) battery sector. This changes the nature of this particular nickel surplus. LME stocks of Class I nickel continue to slide even as surplus builds in other parts of the supply chain.

The country nationalised its copper sector in 1971, provoking international outrage, particularly in the United States. President Gabriel Boric's lithium "nationalisation" is a more benign version, using an even earlier copper model. THE COPPER MODEL - GOOD AND BADIf President Boric's lithium policy is an echo of past copper policy, the comparison is with the "Chileanisation" programme of the Eduardo Frei Montalva administration in the late 1960s. Even the neo-liberals of the Augusto Pinochet regime kept the national jewel in the crown as they opened the rest of the country's' copper sector up to the private sector. It is now Codelco that is tasked with taking control of the country's lithium sector.

☆ Goldman thinks the trade right now is on China's economy and gives 2 U.S. stocks to play it
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-24 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The rebound in China's economy creates an opportunity for U.S. equity investors who can capture that strength by picking mining stocks, according to Goldman Sachs. "We recommend investors own mining stocks, which are levered to China growth through rising metals prices." Metals and mining stocks typically mirror the performance of the index, Goldman said. The firm said mining stocks in general are relatively cheap right now, trading at a 20% discount to the S & P 500. The SPDR S & P Metals & Mining ETF tracks the S & P Metals and Mining Select Industry Index, while the iShares MSCI Global Metals & Mining Producers ETF follows select global metals and mining producers, excluding gold and silver.

Expressed in terms of annualised run-rates, China's output of 39.9 million tonnes last month was the lowest in a year and down by 1.6 million tonnes from August's record 41.5 million. China's aluminium production is now highly dependent on weather patterns in the south of the country. China's average daily aluminium output and monthly annualised changePRAYING FOR RAINYunnan province accounts for around 12% of China's aluminium capacity and produced 4.2 million tonnes in 2022. WESTERN PRODUCTION FLAT-LINESPrimary aluminium production outside of China was flat year-on-year in the first quarter. WEATHER WATCHHowever, China's dominant position in the global aluminium picture means that it holds the key to future production patterns.

China's refined copper imports and exportsIMPORT SLUMPChina imported 408,174 tonnes of copper in March, down by 19% year-on-year and the lowest monthly intake since October. The preliminary customs report aggregates arrivals of refined metal, anode, alloy and semi-manufactured products. The country also imported 1.8 million tonnes of recyclable materials, the largest amount since 2018, and a record 25.3 million tonnes of mined concentrates. National refined copper output rose by 11% year-on-year in January-February, according to the country's official statistics body. So far this year it seems to have lost its appetite for more refined copper.

But it serves to highlight the importance of one of the most inaccessible parts of southeast Asia to the global tin supply chain. Imports from Myanmar grew from 30,000 tonnes in 2012 to 89,000 tonnes in 2013 and mushroomed to almost 500,000 tonnes in 2016. CHINESE DEPENDENCEThe Myanmar tin boom occurred at the right time for China's tin smelters, many of which were struggling to bring on new mining capacity as Beijing steadily tightened environmental controls on the mining sector. However, the threat alone underscores the fragility of tin supply at a time when Indonesia, the largest exporter of the metal in refined form, is mulling an export ban to stimulate the build-out of downstream processing capacity. This is probably not going to be the last time tin gets spooked by unexpected news from Myanmar.

LONDON, April 14 (Reuters) - A year on from the nickel crisis the London Metal Exchange (LME) is still struggling to regain trading momentum. Volumes dropped sharply after the controversial decision to suspend nickel trading and cancel trades. In this subdued metals trading landscape there are currently two unlikely star performers: London lead and Shanghai tin. The Shanghai nickel contract took a big collateral hit from the LME's crisis and volumes remain depressed, down by half year-on-year in the first quarter. ShFE volumes year-on-year change in Q1 2023LEAD GETS INDEX BOOSTERThe two metallic stand-outs in terms of first-quarter trading activity were LME lead and ShFE tin.

LONDON, April 12 (Reuters) - The zinc market was defined by smelter woes last year with global refined metal production dropping by 4.1% relative to 2021, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG). But the smelter bottleneck was severe enough to generate a global supply shortfall of more than 300,000 tonnes, according to ILZSG. A sharp rise in the annual benchmark smelter processing fee should incentivise a turnaround in metal production. Annual "benchmark" zinc smelter processing feesOUT-OF-SYNCH SUPPLY CHAINThis year's benchmark treatment charge, the fee a smelter earns for converting mined concentrates into metal, has been set at $274 per tonne, up from $230 in 2022 and $159 in 2021. Global mined and refined zinc production annual changeSMELTER RECOVERY?

☆ Want to play soaring gold prices? These stocks are seen rising by at least 20%
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-07 | by ( Zavier Ong | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Gold prices are up about 10% this year and traded around $2,020 an ounce at one point on Thursday. For investors looking to cash on potentially higher gold prices, CNBC Pro screened FactSet for stocks in the Global X Gold Explorers ETF , the iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF , the VanEck Gold Miners ETF , and the SPDR S & P Metals and Mining ETF . The company's gold mining operations are in Western Australia, where it aims to produce 185,000 to 205,000 ounces of gold annually by 2024. Analysts give British mining firm Hochschild Mining potential upside of 32.8%, according to FactSet data. Other stocks that made the screen include Australia's Silver Lake Resources , Indonesia's PT Merdeka Copper Gold, Endeavour Mining and B2Gold .

LONDON, April 4 (Reuters) - The problems around artisanal cobalt mining in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) will take "a coalition to solve", according to Microsoft (MSFT.O). Yet the West still needs Congo's cobalt and everyone agrees that formalisation is the solution to the high human and economic costs of artisanal mining. ETHICAL DILEMMAThe ethical dilemma facing Western cobalt users, which is just about everyone with a mobile phone, is headline news again after the publication of "Cobalt Red" by Siddarth Kara. Mutoshi's artisanal miners have lost their collective pricing power and their cobalt is once again flowing down opaque channels into the industrial supply chain, the report claims. Most of the country's estimated 150,000-200,000 cobalt miners have never even had the chance of formalisation.

Soldering demand from the electronics sector remains weak and investors in London and Shanghai continue to play the market from the short side. Surging purchases of electronic goods during lockdown were followed by sharply reduced spending as many Western consumers were hit by a cost-of-living squeeze. LME positioning reports show both investment funds and other financial players are currently net short of the London tin contract after the early-year rally went into reverse. LME tin price, stocks and cash-3s spreadSHANGHAI STOCKS UP, LONDON STOCKS DOWNReasons to be negative are more obvious in China. ShFE registered tin stocks have risen by 60% to 8,745 tonnes since the start of January.

LONDON, March 27 (Reuters) - Funds have dumped their bets on higher copper prices as the turbulence triggered by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank continues to roil financial markets. The investment community has turned net short of CME copper for the first time in five months, while funds have cut their long exposure on the London Metal Exchange (LME). Investors' negativity towards Doctor Copper contrasts with the bullish headlines generated by the FT Commodities Global Summit. Investment funds bought into copper in January, the net long position expanding from 11,830 to 32,397 contracts at the end of the month. Bulls such as Trafigura and Goldman Sachs contend it's a very thin inventory cushion if China rediscovers its copper mojo.

China currently dominates the supply chain for many of the entries on Europe's list of "strategic" metals. By which time not more than 65% of any strategic metal's consumption will be able to come from a single third country. Europe has no strategic metal inventory, unlike the United States, China and South Korea. Given such a humble starting point, it seems unlikely EU strategic metal reserves are going to come any time soon, if they come at all. What started as a response to China's dominance of critical metals supply has been accelerated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

☆ Copper prices could soar 33% in the next year as global inventories hit lowest since 2008, top metals trader says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Copper could climb as high as $12,000 per metric ton in the next year, Trafigura said. "What's the price of something the whole world needs but we don't have any of?" "What's the price of something the whole world needs but we don't have any of?" Inventories are now at the lowest seasonal level since 2008, helping copper prices rise 6% this year to become the best-performing industrial metal. In its best-case scenario, S&P Global predicts that by 2035, the world will be lacking 1.6 million tons in needed copper.

LONDON, March 21 (Reuters) - The London Metal Exchange (LME) has discovered that some of its registered nickel is missing. Bags of stones shouldn't pass any inspection, whether at original load-in or during the annual audit of registered stock required by the LME's warehousing agreement. But it folds into the bigger issues around the exchange's governance and regulatory capacity after the blow-out of the nickel contract this time last year. BROKEN NICKELThe latest scandal will also intensify the question of whether the LME nickel contract is fulfilling the function of efficient price discovery forum. The nickel market was already looking for different pricing solutions before the March 8, 2022 suspension of LME nickel trading.

☆ The world's top metals trader is stuck in another nickel-shipment snafu after getting bags of stones from a Dutch warehouse
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Trafigura discovered that it received bag of stones from a warehouse in Rotterdam instead of nickel. Last month, Trafigura disclosed an unrelated fraud on nickel shipments and faces a $577 million loss. Earlier, the Wall Street Journal reported that JPMorgan Chase was the owner of bags of stones at the warehouse. Stratton Metals, a metal trader in Europe, also reportedly got bags of stones instead of nickel. Meanwhile, Trafigura has said there's no connection between the bags of stones and a separate snafu related to nickel cargoes.

[1/3] Samples of rare earth minerals from left: Cerium oxide, Bastnaesite, Neodymium oxide and Lanthanum carbonate at Molycorp's Mountain Pass Rare Earth facility in Mountain Pass, California June 29, 2015. Australia's Lynas Rare Earths Ltd. (LYC.AX) slumped 6.8% on the news and has fallen further since. It hasn't helped the price of rare earths either, accentuating a sharp slide that began in February. Shanghai Metal Market rare earth assessmentsRARE EARTHS ROLLER-COASTERRare earths have been on a price roller-coaster over the last three years. There is also the lingering threat that China could weaponise its rare earths supply if relations with the West deteriorate.

☆ UK's FTSE 100 kicks off week on grim note; miners fall
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( Johann M Cherian | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The export-oriented FTSE 100 (.FTSE) fell 0.2% and the more domestically-focussed FTSE 250 (.FTSE) was flat by 9:25 GMT. Copper prices were in the red as top consumer China set a lower-than-expected gross domestic product target of 5%. Flutter Entertainment Plc (FLTRF.L) rose 2.4% and Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings Plc surged 17.8% on price target raises by brokerages. Clarkson Plc (CKN.L) added 5.1% after the shipping services provider reported a strong annual profit. Reporting by Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips and Shailesh KuberOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

LONDON, March 3 (Reuters) - The race for electric vehicle (EV) battery metals is heating up. Carmakers have already been busy tying up supplies of battery metals under direct off-take agreements with existing metals producers. Automakers' collective move into the mining sector has so far largely prioritised the lithium sector, where Western companies have been playing catch-up with Chinese investors. Lithium supply is struggling to scale up at the speed required to meet accelerating demand from battery-makers. Capital expenditure in the sector slumped, miners opting to return cash to shareholders rather than dig more big copper mines.

Aluminium will be hardest hit with penal tariffs of 200% on imports of Russian metal, effective March 10, and imports of any third-country product containing Russian metal, effective April 10. This sort of "super contango" is the market's cry for financiers to pick up spare metal, particularly Russian metal. The Gwangyang deliveries are reported to be Russian aluminium being delivered by Glencore (GLEN.L), which has a long-term off-take deal with Rusal. The cash-to-threes time-spread will be a litmus test of financing appetite for Russian aluminium over the coming period. The only get-out for supplier nations is if they too impose minimum 200% tariffs on their own Russian aluminium imports.

LONDON, Feb 24 (Reuters) - The global nickel market flipped from deficit to surplus over the course of 2022, according to the International Nickel Study Group (INSG). Indonesia's mined nickel production expanded by 48% to 1.58 million tonnes in 2022, according to the INSG. However, as Indonesian production of Class II nickel rises, the Class I market shrinks. Around 70% of the physical nickel supply chain is now priced at a discount to the LME benchmark. LME nickel volumes slumped by 28% last year and January's activity was 60% lower than that of January 2022.

As a result, the world's largest listed miner reported underlying profit attributable from continuing operations of $6.6 billion, down from $9.72 billion a year earlier. That missed a Vuma Financial estimate of $6.82 billion, as earnings from copper and coal came in lower than analysts had expected. Shares of the global miner fell as much as 2.8% to A$47.11, their lowest since Jan. 6 and were down 2% at 0138 GMT in a broader market (.AXJO) that was down 0.5%. BHP also said it expected aggressive global interest rate hikes from last year to slow growth sharply across the developed world. BHP has threatened not to invest in Queensland after the state hiked its coal royalties to the highest rate in the world.

Power-hungry aluminium producers in Yunnan and neighbouring provinces were already operating at reduced capacity, some of them since September, dragging down China's national output. The latest cuts will impact around 740,000 tonnes of annual production capacity, adding to the million tonnes already offline, according to industry consultancy Mysteel. Aluminium capacity has grown to around 5.25 million tonnes, making it the fourth largest provincial producer after Shandong, Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang. January's estimated annualised production was 40.50 million tonnes, a drop of almost one million tonnes over the last five months. Registered inventory on both exchanges has risen fast, cushioning the supply chain from the loss of Chinese production momentum.

SummarySummary Companies H1 profit misses estimateInterim dividend beats estimatePositive on demand outlook from ChinaStarts process to sell two Queensland met coal minesFeb 21 (Reuters) - Global miner BHP Group (BHP.AX) was positive about demand outlook through to fiscal 2024 as top metals consumer China reopens and shifts policy towards its debt-laden property sector, the company said on Tuesday after its 2023 first-half profit missed estimates. However, its interim dividend of 90 cents per share, while lower than last year's $1.50 per share, beat Vuma Financial's estimate of 88 cents. "We are positive about the demand outlook in the second half of fiscal 2023 and into fiscal 2024, with strengthening activity in China on the back of recent policy decisions the major driver," Chief Executive Officer Mike Henry said. But the reopening of the world's second-biggest economy and a property sector policy shift has BHP upbeat on the commodity demand outlook. However, in an environment where central banks are aggressively tightening their monetary policy, BHP expects its operating environment to remain volatile in the near term, but expects China to be a source of stability for commodity demand.

☆ Amplats shares fall after power outages dim outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-20 | by ( Nelson Banya | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Amplats' shares were down 3.1% by 1130 GMT, having hit their lowest since early October 2020 earlier in the session. Amplats Chief Executive Officer Natascha Viljoen on Monday said South Africa's electricity crisis and the impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine would lead to a decline in global PGM supply. Rising interest rates and a strong dollar typically result in lower prices for PGM, especially platinum, Amplats said. South Africa, the world's top PGM producer, is experiencing extended electricity cuts as coal-fired generating plants suffer frequent breakdowns, meaning Amplats's refined PGM output could fall by 5% in 2023, Viljoen said. Amplats declared a total dividend of 115 rand per share, down from 300 rand per share last year, returning $1.66 billion to shareholders.

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