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☆ Here are the most important days for the stock market between now and the November election, according to BofA
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-23 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

There are key stock market catalysts on the horizon before November. In a Monday note, Bank of America highlighted the most important days for the stock market between now and the November Presidential election. AdvertisementBank of AmericaNovember 6Technically the day after the election, the most important day for the stock market is November 6, when markets can react to the results. The stock market experienced a similar-sized move on the day after the prior Presidential election, with the S&P 500 jumping 2.2% on November 4, 2020. But now that the Fed has started its cutting cycle, we think labor market data (e.g.

Persons: — Organizations: Service, Federal, Bank of America, Investors, Fed Locations: United States

☆ The job market is about to rebound as widespread spending boosts the economy, Apollo chief economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-23 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

In a note to clients, Slok issued a more positive outlook on the US job market, even as hiring has slowed this year. "It is inconsistent to say that the incoming economic data is strong but the labor market is weakening," Slok wrote. AdvertisementHowever, consumption and business spending data have been strong in recent months. If the 30-year fixed rate slumps to around 5%, that could that could spark a rebound in home sales, providing a boost to the economy and job market, Slok said. AdvertisementThe outlook for the job market, though, remains mixed, with some commentators warning that hiring could continue to slow due to the lagged impact of the Fed's rate hikes.

Persons: —, Torsten Slok, Slok, Freddie Mac, David Rosenberg, who's Organizations: Service, Apollo Global Management, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Challenger, IRA, Atlanta Fed Locations: Atlanta

☆ JPMorgan economist who nailed half-point call sees another big Fed rate cut in November
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-19 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

At its much-anticipated meeting Wednesday, the Fed approved a half percentage point, or 50 basis point, cut to its benchmark funds rate that ran counter to the 25 basis point move that many Wall Street economists and strategists had been expecting. The benchmark fed funds rate now stands at 4.75% to 5.00% after Wednesday's move. Futures market pricing Thursday suggested a 25 basis point move in November followed by a 50 basis point cut in December, according to the CME Group's FedWatch. A basis point equals 0.01%. "Ultimately what we found most important in what Powell said was also among the least surprising things he said: future decisions are going to depend on the data," Feroli wrote.

Persons: Michael Feroli, Feroli, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Fed, Street Locations: U.S

☆ The Fed needs to 'start getting out of the way' and deliver a big rate cut next week, famed economist Claudia Sahm says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Economist Claudia Sahm urged the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points next week. Sahm cites solid inflation progress and a slowing labor market as reasons for the big rate cut. AdvertisementThe Federal Reserve "absolutely" needs to deliver a 50 basis point interest rate cut next week, according to famed economist Claudia Sahm. We need to kind of clean it up, do a 50 basis point cut, and then be ready to do more," Sahm said. AdvertisementInvestors are undecided as to what the Fed will do at its FOMC meeting next week, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing a near 50/50 split probability between a 25 basis point or 50 basis point cut as of Friday morning.

Persons: Claudia Sahm, Sahm, —, Powell, it's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Service, CNBC, Fed, Atlanta

☆ Applying to jobs is tough, try doing it 2,200 times
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-12 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

In today's big story, this guy is ready to give up after applying to nearly 2,200 jobs . The big storyNot hiringKevin Cash Ben BoxerHow tough is the current job market? AdvertisementThe job market is in a weird spot these days. On paper — and maybe in another labor market — Kevin appears to be the perfect candidate. It's a tough reality check for employees who previously held all the power in the job market.

Persons: —, Zer, Kevin Cash Ben Boxer, Kevin Cash, Tim Paradis, Kevin, it's, Forget, Tyler Le, we're, duMond, Chip Somodevilla, Alyssa Powell, Harris, Rebecca Zisser, Elon, Apple, Jensen, Goldman Sachs, David Soloman, Huang, Chelsea Jia Feng, Trump, Brian Niccol, We're, Niccol, Dan DeFrancesco, Hallam Bullock, Milan Sehmbi, Amanda Yen Organizations: Service, Business, Mensa, BI Trump, Oppenheimer, Fed, Twitter, Nvidia, Kroger, London Locations: San Francisco, Austin, New York, London

☆ Stock market today: Indexes end mixed as investors brace for August inflation report
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-10 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Investors are waiting for the consumer price report on Wednesday. JPMorgan led a slide in bank stocks after easing its earnings optimism. AdvertisementUS stocks ended mixed Tuesday ahead of the August consumer price index report due out Wednesday morning. Most investors anticipate a 25 basis point rate cut, but any shock in the inflation data could shift that outlook in favor of a steeper cut. Ahead of each report, Tuesday's presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris could also sway markets.

Persons: Dow, —, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris Organizations: JPMorgan, Service, Nasdaq, Ally Locations: Here's

☆ 4 positives to focus on as recession fears grip the market, Deutsche Bank says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-10 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

But Deutsche Bank is offering four reasons to stay positive even as recession fears flare. AdvertisementIt's an uncomfortable time for equity investors, with the S&P 500 fresh off its biggest weekly decline in 18 months. Although the Federal Reserve is on the brink of long-awaited rate cuts, concerns have crept into the market that the economy is at risk of a sudden unpreventable softening. But with interest rate cuts ahead and recession fears in the air, investors are more likely to reposition. Rate cuts are on the horizonAdvertisementAll of Wall Street appears to be bracing for the Federal Reserve to lower rates at its policy meeting next week.

Persons: —, Deutsche, There's Organizations: Deutsche Bank, Service, Federal, Wall, Deutsche, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Mortgage Bankers Association

☆ All the data is pointing to a soft landing in the US economy, top economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-09 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The US economy is not facing a recession, says Apollo chief economist Torsten Sløk. Sløk cites strong employment data, wage growth, and consumer spending as key indicators. AdvertisementThe US economy is cruising toward a soft landing with no recession on the table, according to Apollo chief economist Torsten Sløk. "Daily data for debit card transactions shows that consumer spending has been accelerating in recent weeks," Sløk said. That's not something you see right before a recession hits the economy, according to Sløk.

Persons: Torsten Sløk, Sløk, — Organizations: Service, Sløk, Atlanta

☆ Jim Cramer says the Fed is likely to make a rate cut next week
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-09 | by ( Julie Coleman | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

CNBC's Jim Cramer on Monday suggested the Federal Reserve will make a rate cut at its meeting next week, a move that investors have eagerly awaited for some time. We're almost certain to get a rate cut at next week's meeting." The market seemed to recover on Monday following its worst week of 2024 so far, with investors hopeful a rate cut will aid the economy. Cramer reviewed the recent market action, saying Wall Street had not been behaving as it should with rate cuts just on the horizon. "Rather than trying to figure out what's driving these irrational moves, you should focus on buying dips in high-quality stocks," he said.

Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, payrolls, Cramer Organizations: Reserve, Fed, Dow Jones, Nasdaq

☆ Yellen says U.S. economy remains solid, on path to 'soft landing' with no meaningful layoffs
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-07 | by ( Rebecca Picciotto | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen speaks listens to a presentation during a tour at the IRS Processing Facility on September 06, 2024 in Austin, Texas. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen sought to reassure the public on Saturday that the U.S. economy remains strong, despite a string of weak job reports that have rattled investors and weighed on the stock market. "We're seeing less frenzy in terms of hiring and job openings, but we're not seeing meaningful layoffs," Yellen said at the Texas Tribune Festival in Austin. Yellen said the U.S. is on that path: "It really has been amazing to be able to get inflation down as meaningfully as we have. This is what most people would call the soft landing," she said.

Persons: Janet Yellen, Yellen, Nonfarm, Dow Jones Organizations: IRS, Texas Tribune, of Labor Statistics, Dow, Federal Reserve Locations: Austin , Texas, U.S, Austin

☆ Fed Governor Waller backs interest rate cut at September meeting, open to larger move
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-06 | by ( Jeff Cox | Jeff Cox Is A Finance Editor With Cnbc.Com Where He Covers All Aspects Of The Markets | Monitors Coverage Of The Financial Markets | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +2 min

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller on Friday backed an interest rate cut at the upcoming central bank policy meeting in less than two weeks, and indicated he’d be open to a substantial reduction if necessary. Other policymakers recently have advocated easing policy soon, but this is one of the clearest indications it will happen at the Sept. 17-18 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. “Determining the pace of rate cuts and ultimately the total reduction in the policy rate are decisions that lie in the future,” Waller added. With inflation and employment near our longer-run goals and the labor market moderating, it is likely that a series of reductions will be appropriate,” he said. Futures market pricing following the jobs report tilted toward a greater likelihood of a quarter percentage point rate reduction this month.

Persons: Christopher Waller, ” Waller, Waller, verbiage, Jerome Powell, —, nonfarm, Dow Jones, ” Organizations: Federal, Council, Foreign Relations, Labor Department, Dow Locations: New York

☆ The unemployment rate slid as expected in August after a surprise increase the prior month
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-06 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

The data is a crucial input as the Fed decides how much to cut interest rates later this month. Go to newsletter preferences Thanks for signing up! download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementUnemployment slid, as expected, to 4.2% in August after a surprise increase to 4.3% in July. The unemployment figure solidifies outlooks for an economic soft landing and is unlikely to derail expectations for a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut later this month.

Persons: —, payrolls Organizations: Service, Federal, Investors, Business

☆ Bears are eager to front-run a recession that has not materialized
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-06 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Let's front-run the September-October weakness Another chunk of investors is equally pessimistic, but for a different reason. 2) Corporate buybacks, which have been exceptionally strong this year — likely a record for the S & P 500 — will likely slow soon because corporations will be entering blackout periods for several weeks heading into earnings. The S & P 500 is less than 3% from its historic high. The last time the S & P 500 had a 10% correction was July 31 to Oct. 27, 2023 (10.3% drop). That's what happens with high valuations and a slower economy.

Persons: payrolls, It's, Goldman Sachs, nonfarm payrolls Organizations: Traders, Citi, Nvidia Locations: factoids

☆ August payrolls grew by a less-than-expected 142,000, but unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-06 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

At the same time, the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%, as expected. The labor force expanded by 120,000 for the month, helping push the jobless level down by 0.1 percentage point, though the labor force participation rate held at 62.7%. The household survey, which is used to calculate the unemployment rate and is often more volatile than the survey of establishments, showed employment growth of 168,000. Markets showed little initial reaction to the data, with stock futures holding negative and Treasury yields also lower. While the August numbers were close to expectations, the previous two months saw substantial downward revisions.

Persons: Nonfarm, Dow Jones, Dan North Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, North America, Allianz Trade, Manufacturing Locations: U.S, Dow

☆ Friday's jobs report for August is going to be huge. Here's what to expect
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-05 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The Wall Street consensus is for nonfarm payrolls growth of 161,000 for August and a slight decline in the unemployment rate to 4.2%, according to Dow Jones. In turn, markets are certain the Fed will start lowering interest rates in a couple weeks, with the possibility of a jumbo cut depending on what Friday's report shows. "What the Fed is going to do in response, how are they going to adjust rates, that's why we are having this conversation." While job growth has been tailing off through much of 2024, the deceleration hit home for the market with a July report that showed payroll growth of just 114,000. The latest bad news came Thursday when payrolls processing firm ADP put August private job growth at just 99,000, the smallest gain since January 2021.

Persons: Dow Jones, Giacomo Santangelo Organizations: Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Fed

☆ August private payrolls rose by 99,000, smallest gain since 2021 and far below estimates, ADP says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-05 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Private sector payrolls grew at the weakest pace in more than 3½ years in August, providing yet another sign of a deteriorating labor market, according to ADP. August was the weakest month for job growth since January 2021, according to data from the payrolls processing firm. Still, the ADP data showed that while hiring has slowed considerably, only a few sectors reported actual job losses. Annual pay increased 4.8% for those who stayed in their jobs, about the same level as July, according to ADP. The ADP count now tees up the more closely watched nonfarm payrolls report, which the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release Friday.

Persons: payrolls, Nela Richardson Organizations: ADP . Companies, Dow, Labor Department, ADP, of Labor Statistics, BLS, Federal

☆ Layoffs jump in August while hiring in 2024 is at a historic low, Challenger report shows
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-05 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Layoffs soared in August, hitting their highest total for the month in 15 years, while year-to-date hiring reached a historic low, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported Thursday. Announced job cuts totaled 75,891 for the month, lurching 193% higher than July. "August's surge in job cuts reflects growing economic uncertainty and shifting market dynamics," said Andrew Challenger, the firm's senior vice president. To be sure, the Challenger layoffs data is somewhat out of sync with government reports, which show that initial claims for unemployment benefits have been slightly elevated in recent weeks but not reflective of a major escalation. Companies announcing job cuts most often cited cost-cutting and economic conditions as the reasons, though artificial intelligence also was listed for the first time since April.

Persons: Andrew Challenger Organizations: Challenger, Companies Locations: U.S

☆ Job openings fell more than expected in July in another sign of labor market softening
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-04 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Job openings slumped to their lowest level in 3½ years in July, the Labor Department reported Wednesday in another sign of slack in the labor market. "The labor market is no longer cooling down to its pre-pandemic temperature, it's dropped past it," said Nick Bunker, head of economic research at the Indeed Hiring Lab. "Nobody, and certainly not policymakers at the Federal Reserve, should want the labor market to get any cooler at this point." While the job openings level declined, layoffs increased to 1.76 million, up 202,000 from June. "The still low level of layoffs and tick up in hires suggests the labor market is not cracking.

Persons: Dow Jones, it's, Nick Bunker, Krishna Guha, nonfarm Organizations: Labor Department, Labor, Survey, Federal Reserve, Global Policy, Central Bank, Evercore ISI

☆ Atlanta Fed President Bostic says officials can't wait for inflation to hit 2% before cutting
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-04 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic signaled Wednesday that he is ready to start lowering interest rates even though inflation is still running above the central bank's target. The Fed's preferred measure showed inflation running at a 2.5% rate in July, and just a slightly higher 2.6% core rate when excluding food and energy. His comments also come two days before what is expected to be a pivotal nonfarm payrolls report as most economists see the labor market losing momentum. However, the data and our grassroots feedback describe an economy and labor market losing momentum," he said. Indeed, he cited multiple factors indicating that inflation is progressing convincingly back to the Fed's target as the labor market moderates.

Persons: Raphael Bostic, Bostic Organizations: Atlanta Federal Reserve, Atlanta Fed's Locations: Atlanta

☆ Tom Lee, who's been correctly bullish, turns cautious and sees 7%-10% pullback
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-03 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Equity strategist Tom Lee expects the stock market will run into some turbulence over the next eight weeks, though he expects a pullback could be a buying opportunity for investors. Lee stocks could pull back by 7% to 10%, as investors navigate what's historically the weakest month of the year. The Stock Trader's Almanac shows the S & P 500 has averaged a 0.7% loss every September in data going back to 1950. "I think investors should be cautious for the next eight weeks," Lee told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Tuesday. Lee was one of the first on Wall Street to turn bullish on stocks during the depths of the pandemic and was correctly bullish heading into 2024 as well.

Persons: Tom Lee, Lee, CNBC's, Market's, He's Organizations: Federal Reserve

☆ Is the Fed 'sleepwalking into a policy mistake?': Abrdn analyst calls for faster easing of rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-02 | by ( Lim Hui Jie | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

He pointed to economic data like non-farm payrolls, saying they were later revised to reflect a weaker economic picture. Akintewe said: "Is the economy already weaker than the headline data suggests and [the Fed] should already be easing?" "And once you've done that amount of easing, it takes six to eight months to transmit that." "The other question no one seems to ask is, why is the policy rate still at 5.5% when inflation is down [to] almost 2.5%? Like, do you need a 300 basis point real policy rate in this kind of environment with all the uncertainty that we're facing?"

Persons: abdrn, Kenneth Akintewe, Akintewe Organizations: U.S . Labor Department, of Labor Statistics, Fed, U.S, CNBC Locations: U.S

☆ The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator increased 0.2% in July, as expected
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-30 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core PCE also increased 0.2% for the month but was up 2.6% from a year ago. Core prices less housing, another key metric for the Fed, increased just 0.1% on the month. Elsewhere in the report, the department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said personal income increased 0.3%, slightly higher than the 0.2% estimate, while consumer spending rose 0.5%, in line with the forecast. Markets reacted little to the news, with equity futures pointing to a slightly higher open on Wall Street and Treasury yields higher as well. In recent days, policymakers such as Chair Jerome Powell have expressed confidence that inflation is progressing back to the Fed's 2% goal.

Persons: Dow, Joseph Brusuelas, Jerome Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Dow Jones, Fed, department's, BEA, Treasury, RSM

☆ The Fed now will focus on the employment part of its mission — and for good reason
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-28 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Various indicators are pointing to a labor market that, if not in outright deterioration, is at least slowing. "Declines of this magnitude tend to occur when the economy is heading into recession and when the unemployment rate is on the ascent," he said. The unemployment rate almost always either heads up or down, with little evidence of extended plateaus. The current momentum is up, though the consensus estimate for August is that the unemployment rate will tick down to 4.2%, according to FactSet. "When you talk to firms ... it doesn't look like the labor market is not healthy," former Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said Tuesday on CNBC.

Persons: Troy Ludtka, Jerome Powell, Beth Ann Bovino, Mary Daly, Nonfarm, Nikko, Loretta Mester, hasn't Organizations: Federal, Nikko Securities, Conference Board, Board, Labor Department, San Francisco Fed, Bloomberg News, Cleveland Fed, CNBC Locations: U.S

☆ The Fed has redeemed itself after an 'egregious' post-COVID inflation error, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers says
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-23 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The former Treasury Secretary told Bloomberg TV that the central bank's interest rate strategy has largely succeeded, even though Fed officials made a major blunder by first underestimating pandemic-era inflation. In 2021, the Fed mischaracterized inflation as "transitory," citing that COVID supply chain disruptions would eventually blow away. Once central bankers grew to understand that inflation needed an interest rate response, the Fed initiated the most aggressive policy-tightening campaign in recent history. In that period, Summers often showcased skepticism that the Fed could clamp down on inflation this way without economic consequences. AdvertisementNow, the main question is how far interest rates could fall during the Fed's September meeting.

Persons: —, Larry Summers, Summers, I've, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Business, Fed

☆ Nonfarm payroll growth revised down by 818,000, Labor Department says
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-21 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The U.S. economy created 818,000 fewer jobs than originally reported in the 12-month period through March 2024, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. Wall Street had been waiting for the revisions numbers, with many economists expecting a sizeable reduction in the originally reported figures. "The labor market appears weaker than originally reported," said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial. "A deteriorating labor market will allow the Fed to highlight both sides of the dual mandate and investors should expect the Fed to prepare markets for a cut at the September meeting." Nonfarm payroll jobs totaled 158.7 million through July, an increase of 1.6% from the same month in 2023.

Persons: Jeffrey Roach, Jared Bernstein, Goldman Sachs, Jerome Powell Organizations: Labor Department, of Labor Statistics, BLS, Federal Reserve, LPL, Goldman Locations: U.S, Jackson Hole , Wyoming

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