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☆ Premarket stocks: This is how the banking crisis ends
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Julia Horowitz | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

London CNN —US regional bank stocks look set to rebound Friday but are still down sharply this week, accentuating fears that federal regulators have not yet contained a crisis in the sector that could shake the financial system. Breaking it down: Wall Street is on the hunt for any signs of vulnerability in the banking system after the high-profile demise of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic Bank in a matter of weeks. While authorities stepped in to protect depositors at those banks, investors were left with stocks that were suddenly worthless. “I believe it really only ends after we get some type of government intervention,” Michaud told me. The value of short positions in regional bank stocks reached $15.1 billion in mid-April, up from about $13.7 billion one year ago, according to data from S3 Partners.

☆ Here’s where the jobs are for April 2023 — in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Broad job gains across the economy helped the labor market show resilience in the face of a banking crisis and growing recessionary concerns. Friday's data bolsters the argument that the labor market has remained idiosyncratically strong despite signs that the broader economy has slowed. Almost one out of every four of the new jobs were in health care and social assistance, which added about 64,200 in the month. Professional and business services saw the second largest growth in April at 43,000, which is more jobs than it has added in an average month over the past half-year. Professional, scientific and technical service jobs accounted for the bulk of the sector's gains with a 45,000 increase.

☆ What to expect from the jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Minneapolis CNN —If the latest employment trends continue and economists’ forecasts prove true, Friday’s jobs report could bring back that pre-pandemic feeling. Economists expect the US economy to have added 180,000 jobs in April, according to consensus estimates on Refinitiv. It could also hammer home the fact that the US labor market has indeed cooled down from its red-hot recovery over the past two years. What a rising unemployment rate meansEconomists are expecting the unemployment rate to tick up to 3.6% from 3.5%, according to Refinitiv. Mixed signalsPayroll processor ADP’s monthly look at private-sector employment activity, released two days before the BLS’ employment report, is sometimes looked at as a preview of what to expect from the federal data.

☆ 3 indicators the job market is seeing what one economist calls an ‘unambiguous cooldown'
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The job market is still hot but is clearly slowing from the scorching levels seen during much of the past two years, according to labor experts. Job openings and voluntary worker departures (or, quits) declined in March, while the layoff rate increased, according to data issued Tuesday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. "Two words: unambiguous cooldown," Nick Bunker, director of North American economic research at job site Indeed, said of the data in the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. "If you're looking at the current temperature of the labor market, it's still strong, still hot," Bunker said. The Federal Reserve began raising borrowing costs aggressively last year to cool the economy and labor market, aiming to tame stubbornly high inflation.

☆ Get ready for a Goldilocks summer featuring a job market that's neither too hot nor too cold
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Juliana Kaplan | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

It's set up a Goldilocks situation heading into summer, where the job market is cooling, but not enough to have an adverse effect on the average American. That could mean a summer of fewer price spikes at the grocery store, and less businesses scrambling to hire, while workers maintain some power in the job market. "We're still in a hot labor market," Nick Bunker, the economic research director for North America at Indeed Hiring Lab, told Insider. Getting to a just-right job marketBunker told Insider the US job market is getting close to something that looks like what we saw prior to the pandemic. If they did, it would represent a job market tipping into the "too cold" zone.

☆ The Fed is winning its war on inflation — and it means America could avoid a painful recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

It's a slowdown from the February's 6.0% reading, and it shows the Fed's war on inflation is working. That 5.0% inflation rate is the lowest since May 2021. While the Fed isn't planning on cutting interest rates this year, the latest economic data is a hint that a pause could be on the horizon. The bank's collapse amplified Powell critics' calls to pause interest rate hikes because of the economic uncertainty the debacle prompted. That along with too-high shelter and core inflation possibly keeping the Fed in a rate-hiking mindset means a recession isn't completely off the books.

☆ ‘We’re at a tipping point:’ What to expect from the jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-07 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

Minneapolis CNN —The US labor market has kept trucking right along even as other areas of the economy have slowed. ET Friday when the Bureau of Labor Statistics drops the heavily anticipated jobs report for March. On Wednesday, the latest private-sector jobs report from payroll processor ADP came in at 145,000 for March, landing below expectations. There still remains uncertainty about the extent to which those and other layoffs may ripple through the broader labor market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release its March jobs report at 8:30 a.m.

☆ US economy still churning out jobs at brisk clip; wage pressures subsiding
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-07 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Labor market tightness is drawing more people into the workforce, with 480,000 entrants last month, which could help to further restrain wage growth. The unemployment rate for Blacks dropped to an all-time low of 5.0%. Economists expect the labor market to loosen up considerably starting in the second quarter as companies respond more to slowing demand caused by the higher borrowing costs. Details of the household survey from which the unemployment rate is derived were upbeat. The employment-to-population ratio, viewed as a measure of an economy's ability to create employment, increased to 60.4% from 60.2% in the prior month.

☆ Black Americans are more likely to be working than white Americans for the first time on record
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-07 | by ( Jason Lalljee | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

In March, the Black employment-population ratio was above the white employment-population ratio for the first time since at least 1972. The unemployment rate for Black Americans also hit a record low of 5.0% in March. The employment-population ratio measures the share of a group that has a job, meaning that for the first time on record, Black Americans are more likely to currently be working than white Americans. Additionally, the unemployment rate for Black Americans fell by 0.7 percentage points to 5.0% in March, the lowest rate on record, according to Black unemployment data starting in 1972. Which is what makes March's low unemployment rate for Black Americans, and a higher employment-population ratio than the white employment-population ratio, so novel.

☆ ‘We’re at a tipping point:’ What to expect from the jobs report on Friday
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

Minneapolis CNN —The US labor market has kept trucking right along even as other areas of the economy have slowed. Just how much of a shift there is could become even clearer on Friday when the Bureau of Labor Statistics drops the heavily anticipated jobs report for March. On Wednesday, the latest private-sector jobs report from payroll processor ADP came in at 145,000 for March, landing below expectations. There still remains uncertainty about the extent to which those and other layoffs may ripple through the broader labor market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to release its March jobs report on Friday at 8:30 a.m.

They also now expect the Fed will start easing policy as early as July, cutting its benchmark rate to near 4% by the end of the year. Job openings, a measure of labor demand, also fell to its lowest level since May 2021 and data for January was revised lower to show 10.6 million job openings instead of the previously reported 10.8 million. "The U.S. labor market is definitively cooling off," said Indeed economist Nick Bunker, noting that job openings have now fallen by about 1.3 million in two months. Welcome relief on the job market front follows a key report last week that showed while inflation ebbed in February, it remained high enough to possibly compel the Fed to raise interest rates one more time this year. At their March policy meeting, most Fed policymakers signaled they expected to need to raise rates one more time, to 5.1%, and not to cut them until 2024.

☆ Inflation cooled down again in February as the Fed wrestles with the Silicon Valley Bank failure
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The consumer price index rose 6.0% year-over-year in February, less than January's year-over-year change of 6.4%. The cooldown should be welcome news to the Fed as it prepares for its interest rate decision next week. According to Tuesday's consumer price index (CPI) report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI soared 6.0% year-over-year in February. More specifically, the change for the index for food at home was 10.2%, higher than the year-over-year change of 8.4% for food away from home. The Fed will also have to confront a new round of financial turmoil after regulators recently closed Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.

☆ The Great Resignation is pretty much over for some workers — but not everyone. See how your industry is doing.
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-11 | by ( Juliana Kaplan | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Right now, the Great Resignation is still strong in many blue-collar, service industries. But the Great Resignation is coming to an end in remote, knowledge-based roles. Information, which encompasses some tech roles, also saw employment decline from January to February. "If you read about the Great Resignation while you were working from home on a computer, in your pajamas, the Great Resignation's over," Terrazas said. In industries like retail and leisure and hospitality, the Great Resignation lives on.

☆ Layoffs are still historically low, so why does it feel like everyone's losing their job?
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Juliana Kaplan | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

The layoffs and discharges rate in January was 1.1%, which remains historically low. While BLS data may show a low US layoff rate overall, tech layoff announcements are important, given Pollak said that tech and finance are "synonymous with Americans' aspirations generally." "Those markets are very exposed to tech layoffs, and tech plays a disproportionate role in the economy," Terrazas added. Pollak told Insider that the layoffs at tech companies are "relatively small" and that "many companies also are not pursuing layoffs across the board." Despite the layoff rate being very low, job seekers may still be concerned about these headlines.

☆ Are you getting a pay raise this year?
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Cindy Perman | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

"Job switching is one of the best ways to get a raise," Nick Bunker, economic research director at Indeed, told CNBC. In January, for example, those who stayed got an average raise of 5.4%, while those who switched scored an average salary increase of 7.3%. Your best shot at getting that raise is going in there prepared. "State facts so you can show your boss what you're worth," Vicki Salemi, a career expert at Monster.com, told CNBC. Here are a few tips for asking for a raise: Know the going rate for your line of work.

☆ It's the perfect time to find a new job — but don't wait because the window will close this year
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-05 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

It's still a good time to apply and get a job according to labor market data, survey results, and experts. "The best job seeker's market in over 50 years"According to Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter, now is a great time to find a job. "If I was a job seeker I would think this is still a job seekers' labor market," Nick Bunker, economic research director for North America at Indeed Hiring Lab, told Insider. But this is still very much a labor market that's giving lots of advantages to people who are looking for new work." Despite the strong labor market, some workers out of work or impacted by recent layoff announcements may have a hard time finding a job soon.

☆ Headlines about layoffs don't mean you're going to lose your job
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-03 | by ( Rebecca Knight | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The US labor market looks strong, and yet news about mass layoffs dominates the headlines. To be clear: Labor Department data shows that layoffs overall remain historically low and the latest jobs report shows growth is rock solid. But if the fear of losing your job hovers over you like a dark cloud, you're not alone. What people are doing is indicative of a strong economy. Are they operating in a way that's indicative of a strong economy?

☆ Job openings unexpectedly jump to 11 million in December
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

The 11 million openings for December is the highest since July. The largest increases in job openings were in accommodation and food services, which were up 409,000; retail trade, up 134,000; and construction, up 82,000, according to the BLS report. “The labor market continues to defy the recession predictions of experts,” said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist with FwdBonds, in a statement. Layoffs increased to 1.47 million from 1.41 million in November, and the number of people quitting their jobs ticked down to 4.09 million from 4.1 million. Still, there may be something more than meets the eye in December’s openings number, she added.

Walmart said Tuesday it would raise the average hourly wage of its associates to more than $17.50 an hour — up from about $17 an hour. A Walmart representative also told CNBC Tuesday that its overall minimum wage would climb to $14 an hour, a roughly 17% jump for workers who stock shelves and serve customers. The range of salaries for store employees will also climb to between $14 and $19 an hour, from $12 and $18 an hour. About 340,000 store employees will get a raise, representing 21% of Walmart’s 1.6 million U.S. employees. "The labor market for most workers cooled somewhat over 2022, but it’s still hot," he said.

Moderating inflation and a strong labor market may mean that no recession will come in 2023. At the same time, the US labor market has looked at the possibility of a recession and essentially shrugged. Although the US saw higher gains in the first few months of 2022, the job growth in December still shows the labor market is hot. "Today's inflation numbers are good news, good news about our economy," President Joe Biden said during Thursday remarks. Regardless, the labor market will continue to cool, and the unemployment rate will still rise — which will be uncomfortable, Zandi said, but not a recession.

☆ The December jobs report sent mixed signals. Here's what it means for markets.
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The December jobs report is another data point that signals the Fed has more work to do to cool the economy. "A labor market this strong means an imminent recession is highly improbable," Indeed Hiring Lab economist Nick Bunker wrote in a note. While stocks usually sell off after these strong reports, fearing the worst from the Fed, Friday saw a strong rally. History suggests there are very strong odds the stock market gains 20% this year after last year's bludgeoning. Tesla stock has tumbled to multiyear lows.

That's good news, since the Federal Reserve has been trying to tame wage growth. Cooling wage growth could mean the Fed won't need to induce a recession to bring down inflation. Bunker said that wage growth "is still robust but starting to moderate a little bit." And wage growth has slowed even more when looking at data from the most recent months, rather than just the year-over-year change. "We're seeing wage growth at 4.6% year-over-year.

☆ The US added 223,000 jobs in December, another sign there's no recession yet
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The US added 223,000 jobs in December 2022, more than the job growth forecasted. Friday's labor market figures add to the evidence that the country wasn't in a recession in 2022. Other economic data outside of labor market figures, like consumer spending, also suggest the US isn't in a recession. "A labor market this strong means an imminent recession is highly improbable," Bunker wrote. "This year will pose many challenges for the US economy, but the labor market looks set to enter with considerable strength."

☆ What to expect from the jobs report on Friday
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-05 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Minneapolis CNN —Friday’s jobs report is expected to show that the US economy added 200,000 jobs in December, with the unemployment rate holding steady for the third-straight month at 3.7%. “The preponderance of evidence suggests that the labor market is still nowhere near back to normal,” said Julia Pollak, senior economist with ZipRecruiter online employment marketplace. Historically tightThe US labor market remains atypically tight — something that was reinforced Wednesday when the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report for November. It showed there were still north of 10.5 million job openings, or about 1.7 available positions for every unemployed person looking for work. “But it’s unclear how far inflation can fall without the labor market deteriorating, or rather, it’s not clear what the underlying pace of inflation is with the labor market this tight.”—CNN’s Matt Egan contributed to this report.

☆ The next recession might hit the wealthy more — and a 'richcession' could be good news for low-wage workers
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-05 | by ( Juliana Kaplan | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The next recession could be a "richcession," according to the Wall Street Journal. A K-shaped recovery — where high-earning Americans saw jobs and wages grow, while the converse happened to lower-earners — began to take form during the recession. For the bottom 50%, real wealth growth from February 2020 to September 2022 is 226.6%. To be sure, although the recession on the horizon may be considered a richcession, that doesn't mean it won't affect lower-income Americans. "Lower income, lower wage, lower education workers, Black workers, workers of color" tend to see larger spikes in unemployment during downturns, according to Bunker.

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