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☆ NY Fed data shows a decline in neutral rate during second quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The bank said its R-Star estimate for the second quarter ticked down to 0.57%, from the first quarter’s 0.68%. Analysts typically translate that rate into a real-world setting by adding R-Star to the Fed’s 2% inflation target. Given that the Fed’s current target rate range is at 5.25% to 5.5%, it suggests monetary policy remains at a notably restrictive level for the economy. One key test of how Fed officials are thinking about the issue could come at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting scheduled for Sept. 19-20. At that gathering officials are due to update forecasts for interest rates and the economy and that will include a view on long-run rates.

Persons: John Williams, there’s, Jerome Powell, Michael S, Andrea Ricci Organizations: New York Federal Reserve, New York Fed, Federal, Committee, Thomson Locations: New, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, guesswork

☆ JCPenney CEO: Working families are struggling to get by as inflation bites
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

New York CNN —JCPenney CEO Marc Rosen sees plenty of evidence that working-class families are struggling. “And that customer is facing a tougher economic environment.”The JCPenney CEO pointed to the snowballing effect inflation has had on family budgets, noting that the typical household is spending about $700 more per month than they did two years ago for the same goods and services. He pointed to strong private brand sales for apparel as well as for home goods like cookware and small appliances such as blenders and toasters. The JCPenney CEO wouldn’t directly answer whether the department store plans to return to the public markets through an initial public offering. “We think there are a lot of advantages right now to being a private company,” Rosen said, noting that JCPenney’s owners are reinvesting in the company and are taking a “long-term perspective” on that investment.

Persons: Marc Rosen, Liz Claiborne, Rosen, ” Rosen, delinquencies, “, JCPenney, wouldn’t Organizations: New, New York CNN, CNN, “, JCPenney, New York Federal Reserve, ” Bank of America, Simon Property Group, Brookfield Asset Management Locations: New York

☆ Lucrative college degrees that can lead to salaries of more than $100,000 are largely held by men, study finds
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( Sawdah Bhaimiya | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The most lucrative college degrees are still largely held by men, a Bankrate study has found. It found that 78% of those who held the 20-highest paying bachelor's degrees were men, while only 22% were women. In electrical engineering, 85% of degree holders were men and 15% were women, with the average salary totaling $110,000. AdvertisementAdvertisementMeanwhile, bachelor's degrees where women made up the majority of degree holders were some of the lowest-paying fields. Although more women have college degrees than men and account for just over half of America's college-educated workforce, 2022 Pew Research Center Data found, they're still lagging behind men when it comes to earnings.

Persons: Rose Khattar Organizations: College, Service, Survey, New York Federal Reserve, Pew Research Center, Center for American Locations: Wall, Silicon, caregiving

☆ Macy’s sounds the alarm on credit card delinquencies
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

This situation is hurting Macy’s business, driving down credit card revenue by 36% year over year and contributing to a quarterly loss, he said. Citing worsening consumer leverage metrics, Macy’s is bracing for a further increase in “bad debt” in its credit card portfolio. “I think the credit card revenue is an indication of some of the pressures that we’re actually seeing on the consumer,” Mitchell said. Consumer credit card debt topped $1 trillion during the second quarter for the first time on record, according to the New York Federal Reserve. More concerningly, new credit card and auto loan delinquencies have now surpassed pre-Covid levels, according to Moody’s Investors Service.

Persons: New York CNN —, ” Adrian Mitchell, Macy’s, ” Mitchell, ” Macy’s, Locker Organizations: New, New York CNN, Citibank, Consumer, New York Federal Reserve, Moody’s Investors Service, Credit Locations: New York, Wells

☆ How strong is the U.S. consumer? Two investors weigh in, naming stocks to buy — and types to avoid
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( Weizhen Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

"A rise in 10-year rates, has historically been devastating for consumer and consumer discretionary stocks," he said. "With the 10-year breaking above 4.25%, we are seeing all those consumer discretionary stocks that have had big years pull back sharply." For Stutland, that consumer strength is keeping him bullish on the stock market and U.S. economy in general — but not consumer discretionary stocks. "I'm staying away from the lower market cap weighted stocks and consumer discretionary from those apparel type brands," he said. "As a whole, consumer discretionary stocks to invest in are narrowing.

Persons: Jason Ware, Brian Stutland, Ware, nonfarm, Dow Jones, Stutland, I'm, Stocks Organizations: Albion Financial Group, Equity Armor Investments, Fund, New York Federal Reserve, Starbucks, Visa Locations: U.S, New

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Rising yields can’t dampen excitement over Nvidia
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-22 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Tech rallied amid rising yieldsThe Nasdaq Composite rallied Monday, breaking a four-day losing streak, even as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hit 4.342%, a decades-long high. Nasdaq listing for ArmArm filed for a Nasdaq listing Monday. CNBC Pro's Bob Pisani gives two reasons why investors are still calm — and one why they should perhaps start worrying.

Persons: Softbank, aren't, Bob Pisani Organizations: Nvidia, Entertainment, CNBC, Tech, Nasdaq, Treasury, Dow Jones, New, Federal, aren't panicking Locations: China, Shanghai

☆ American workers are demanding almost $80,000 a year to take a new job
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-21 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The amount of money most workers want now to accept a job reached a record high this year, a sign that inflation is alive and well at least in the labor market. Over the past three years, which entails the Covid-19 pandemic era, the level has risen more than 22%. Though there was a gap between the wage workers wanted and what was offered, satisfaction with compensation and upward mobility increased across the board. Job seekers, or those who have looked for work in the previous four weeks, declined to 19.4% from 24.7% a year ago. That came as job openings fell 738,000 to 9.58 million, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Organizations: New, Federal, New York Fed, Atlanta Fed, Employers, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics

☆ NY Fed survey: Markets bet ahead of July FOMC expected rate rise would be last
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-17 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The Fed next meets on Sept. 19-20, and futures markets currently expect no increase for that gathering. Primary dealers also thought ahead of the July 25-26 FOMC meeting that the Fed would be able to cut rates at the April 2024 meeting. By the final quarter of next year, primary dealers told the New York Fed they expect a 4% federal funds rate, while the market participant survey predicted 3.88%. Fed holdings peaked in the summer of 2022 at just shy of $9 trillion and currently stand at $8.3 trillion. On Wednesday, Fed officials released the meeting minutes from the July FOMC meeting that showed some division over the need for their last rate rise.

Persons: Michael S, Lisa Shumaker Organizations: New York Federal Reserve, Market Committee, Fed, New York Fed, Thomson

☆ NY Fed: One year inflation expectations hits the lowest level since April 2021
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNY Fed: One year inflation expectations hits the lowest level since April 2021CNBC's Steve Liesman reports on news from the New York Federal Reserve.

Persons: Steve Liesman Organizations: New York Federal Reserve

That has made it tricky to predict consumer spending. The swirl of confusing trends tees up a closely watched retail earnings season that could offer more clarity about consumers and the economy. As inflation cools, the growth of average hourly earnings has begun to outpace the rise in the consumer price index. He called low unemployment "the big offset that's helped consumer spending hang in." "I thought with all of the revenge travel that's been happening, that would impact consumer spending on goods," she said.

Persons: Aditya Bhave, that's, Andrew Garthwaite, That's, Levi Strauss, Chip Bergh, Michael Baker, Davidson, splurge, Baker, Taylor Swift, Davidson's Baker, Nikki Baird, she's, I'm, Corie Barry, headboards Organizations: Getty, Bank of America, Target, Walmart, JPMorgan, Wall, Federal Reserve, Credit Suisse, U.S, of Labor Statistics, CNBC, . Bureau, Labor, D.A, New York Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Board Locations: Waterbury , Connecticut, U.S, Italy

☆ The rate of Americans failing to pay credit cards and car loans climbs above pre-Covid levels
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

New credit card and auto loan delinquencies have now surpassed pre-Covid levels, according to a Wednesday report issued by Moody’s Investors Service. This metric is now ahead of where it was in the second quarter of 2019, before the Covid-19 pandemic rocked the economy. The rate of new auto loan delinquencies is also on the rise, hitting 7.3% in the second quarter, compared with 6.9% in the first quarter. Auto loan and credit card delinquencies remain well below Great Recession levels. The good news from the Moody’s report is that fewer Americans are falling behind on their mortgage payments.

Persons: New York CNN —, That’s, Moody’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, Moody’s Investors Service, New York Federal Reserve, Auto Locations: New York

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 7, 2023. The consumer price index (CPI) dropped in the world's second-largest economy, the National Bureau of Statistics said, its first decline since February 2021. Of the 443 S&P 500 companies that have reported results as of Tuesday, 78.6% beat analyst expectations, according to Refinitiv data. Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.18-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.63-to-1 ratio favored decliners. The S&P 500 posted 16 new 52-week highs and 7 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 60 new highs and 178 new lows.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Jason Krupa, Patrick Harker, Gina Bolvin, Wells, Penn Entertainment's, Walt Disney's, Uber, Krupa, Echo Wang, Bansari Mayur Kamdar, Johann M, Shounak Dasgupta, David Gregorio Our Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Penn Entertainment, Dow, Nasdaq, Consumer, Index, Lenox Advisors, New York Federal Reserve Bank, Philadelphia Fed, Bolvin Wealth Management Group, Traders, FedWatch, Wall, Nvidia, Apple, National Bureau of Statistics, Dow Jones, Bank of America, Casino, Walt, Walt Disney's ESPN, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Boston, New York, Bengaluru

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July, due on Thursday, is expected to show a slight acceleration from last year. The consumer price index (CPI) dropped in the world's second-largest economy, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday, its first decline since February 2021. According to preliminary data, the S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 31.47 points, or 0.70%, to end at 4,467.91 points, while the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) lost 162.31 points, or 1.17%, to 13,723.96. Six of the top 11 S&P 500 sectors rose, with energy stocks (.SPNY) leading the gain. Of the 443 S&P 500 companies that have reported results as of Tuesday, 78.6% beat analyst expectations, according to Refinitiv data.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Jason Krupa, Patrick Harker, Gina Bolvin, Michelle Bowman, Wells, Penn Entertainment's, Walt Disney's, Uber, Krupa, Echo Wang, Bansari Mayur Kamdar, Johann M, Shounak Dasgupta, David Gregorio Our Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Penn Entertainment, Dow, Nasdaq, Lenox Advisors, New York Federal Reserve Bank, Philadelphia Fed, Bolvin Wealth Management Group, Traders, FedWatch, Wall, Nvidia, Apple, Index, Bank of America, National Bureau of Statistics, Dow Jones, Casino, Walt, Walt Disney's ESPN, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Boston, New York, Bengaluru

☆ Americans are pulling money out of their 401(k) plans at an alarming rate
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-08 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Minneapolis CNN —More Americans are tapping their 401(k) accounts because of financial distress, according to Bank of America data released Tuesday. It’s a “pretty troubling” development if more people are resorting to making hardship withdrawals, Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree, told CNN. Since 2019, household debt balances have increased by nearly $3 trillion, according to New York Federal Reserve data through the first quarter of 2023. Separately on Tuesday, the New York Fed reported that US households’ credit card debt surpassed the $1 trillion mark for the first time ever. The $45 billion increase in credit card debt helped to drive overall household debt levels to $17.06 trillion at the end of the second quarter.

Persons: It’s, Matt Schulz, “, ”, Lorna Sabbia Organizations: Minneapolis CNN —, Bank of America, Bank of, CNN, Bank of America’s, New York Federal, New York Fed Locations: Minneapolis

Household debt ticked up 0.1% to $17.06 trillion, as mortgage balances - the biggest portion, and typically the biggest driver, of overall household debt - were largely unchanged. But the quarter-to-quarter trend appeared less alarming, with New York Fed researchers noting a leveling out near pre-pandemic levels in the most recent two quarters. New York Fed researchers attributed the decline to the timing of the academic year, as well as to some small forgiveness programs kicking in. Overall mortgage balances ticked down to $12.01 trillion, from $12.04 trillion in the prior quarter, reflecting some changes in credit reporting that are expected to reverse next quarter, New York Fed researchers said. Originations rose about 11% to $179 billion, reflecting the sharp rise in car prices; the number of newly opened loans remains below pre-pandemic levels, the report said.

Persons: Lee Jae, Ann Saphir, Paul Simao, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, New York Federal Reserve Bank, Fed, New York, Reuters, New York Fed, Mortgage, Auto, Thomson Locations: Seoul, U.S

☆ NY Fed: Credit card debt sees biggest increase since 2021 & auto loan debt rises 1.3% in Q2
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNY Fed: Credit card debt sees biggest increase since 2021 & auto loan debt rises 1.3% in Q2CNBC's Steve Liesman reports on new data from the New York Federal Reserve.

Persons: Steve Liesman Organizations: New York Federal Reserve

☆ Credit card balances jumped in the second quarter and are above $1 trillion for the first time
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-08 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Total credit card indebtedness increased by $45 billion in the April-through-June period, an increase of more than 4%. The Fed's measure of credit card debt 30 or more days late rose to 7.2% in the second quarter, up from 6.5% in Q1 and the highest rate since the first quarter of 2012 though close to the long-run normal, central bank officials said. Total debt delinquency edged higher to 3.18% from 3%. "Credit card balances saw brisk growth in the second quarter," said Joelle Scally, regional economic principal within the Household and Public Policy Research Division at the New York Fed. Newly originated mortgages rose by $393 billion though total mortgage debt nudged lower to just over $12 trillion.

Persons: Joelle Organizations: New York Federal Reserve, Public Policy Research, New York Fed, Auto

☆ Wall Street suddenly appears confident America will avoid a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

The Dow Jones Industrial Average index has gained 3.2% this month, outperforming the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite. The Dow’s gains suggest that investors are starting to buy more economically sensitive stocks as recent data show inflation slowing. That, in turn, indicates they’re becoming increasingly optimistic that the economy could avoid a recession. Conventional Wall Street wisdom says gains in the blue-chip index tend to precede rallies across the broader market. The Dow Jones Transport Average Index, an index of 20 stocks including railroad, trucker, airline and freight companies, has gained 24% this year.

Persons: ”, Adam Phillips, That’s, Bryan Mena, Read, Matt Egan, “, Patrick De Haan Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Big Tech, Wealth, Federal Reserve, Union Pacific Corporation, Ryder System, Dominion Freight Line, Fed, New, American Automobile Association Locations: New York, Russia, Ukraine

And although credit application approvals are down, applications for credit cards have increased by 24.8%, showing that Americans are relying more and more on credit to make ends meet. So if your credit application was denied, your credit score should be the first place you look to determine the reason. Why: Your credit utilization is highYour credit utilization is the amount of credit you have available versus the amount you actually owe. For example, if you have a credit limit of $1,000 and you owe $900, your credit utilization is 90% of your available credit. Conversely, a credit limit of $1,000 with a balance of $100 puts your credit utilization ratio at 10% of your available credit, and would positively impact your credit score.

Persons: What's, they'll Organizations: Federal, Service, New York Federal Reserve, The New York Federal Reserve Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Puerto Rican bank sues NY Fed for suspending account in Venezuela-linked crackdown
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( Luc Cohen | Thomson Reuters | Reports On The New York Federal Courts. Previously Worked As A Correspondent In Venezuela | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The bank asked the court to bar the New York Fed from terminating its master account, without which it said it "cannot effectively function as a depository institution." A spokesperson for the New York Fed declined to comment. Federal prosecutors dismissed a civil forfeiture complaint and returned $53 million in seized funds to the bank. The New York Fed in 2019 said it would stop approving master accounts for some Puerto Rican banks due to U.S. sanctions on Venezuela aimed at ousting socialist President Nicolas Maduro, Reuters reported at the time. The bank said its founder, Marcelino Bellosta, has lived in the United States and Europe for much of the last 25 years.

Persons: BSJI, Nicolas Maduro, Marcelino Bellosta, Luc Cohen, Grant McCool Organizations: Banco San Juan, Inc, New York Federal, Banco, Banco San Juan Internacional, New York, New York Fed, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Puerto Rican, U.S, Venezuela, Banco San, Manhattan, York, Puerto, Venezuelan, United States, Europe, New York

☆ Morning Bid: Retail, housing and banks test jaunty July
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanThe benign July investment environment gets tested on Tuesday by updates on U.S. retail sales and housing while the corporate earnings season kicks back into gear with another sweep of bank reports. Consensus forecasts are for a modest rise in retail sales and industrial output last month, while the NAHB homebuilder index is expected to have ticked higher in July to underline the recent housing market recovery more broadly. U.S. stock futures were flat going into the open and 10-year Treasury yields ticked down to their lowest level of the month so far. Crude oil prices tried to find their footing after Monday's sharp drop and continue to sustain year-on-year losses of more than 25%. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Mike Dolan, Wall, HSI, Evergrande, Goldman Sachs, Janet Yellen, Morgan Stanley, Lockheed Martin, Charles Schwab, JB Hunt, Michael Barr, Christina Fincher Organizations: New York Federal, Bank of America, Bank of New, Mellon, Novartis, Sandoz, Bank of New York Mellon, Lockheed, PNC Financial, Synchrony, JB, Federal, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Hong Kong, Treasuries, Canada

☆ Morning Bid: China falls short and oil ebbs but banks impress
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Sub-forecast and sharply slowing retail sales growth for June likewise offset a more upbeat industrial output readout for the months. Even though falling import and export prices in June reinforced the disinflation picture, two-year Treasury yields recouped some of the week's steep declines. LUXURY FIRMSU.S. stock futures were little changed ahead of Monday's open, but two-year Treasury yields edged back lower to 4.72%. Elsewhere, shares of Richemont (CFR.S) dropped nearly 7% after the world's second-biggest luxury firm reported a miss in its sales and amid the China growth dampener. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said she was working with India on energy transition and "eager" to work with China on debt workouts.

Persons: Mike Dolan China's, Wells, Morgan Stanley, Janet Yellen, Mike Dolan, Alison Williams Organizations: Hong, Reserve, Nasdaq, Treasury, JPMorgan, Citi, Bank of America, Tesla, Netflix, York Federal, governor's, . Treasury, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, China, Hong Kong, Tokyo, Asia, Shanghai, Wall, Richemont, India, Russia, China . U.S

U.S. interest rate expectations have been a key driver of the dollar since the Fed began its tightening cycle last year. A survey from the New York Federal Reserve on Monday showed waning near-term inflation expectations among Americans, who said last month they were expecting the weakest near-term inflation gains in just over two years. Sterling , meanwhile, hit a near 15-month high of $1.2913 after British wage growth hit a joint record high, heaping pressure on the Bank of England to tighten policy further to bring inflation under control. The pound has been rallying on a stronger economy and aggressive repricing of expectations for tighter BoE policy, according to Danske Bank FX analyst Kirstine Kundby-Nielsen. Elsewhere, the euro rose 0.1% to $1.1012, the Australian dollar steadied at $0.6680, while the New Zealand dollar fell 0.2% to $0.6198.

Persons: Rick Wilking, Shaun Osborne, Sterling, Kirstine Kundby, That's, Kundby, Nielsen, Moh Siong Sim, Samuel Indyk, Rae Wee, Shri Navaratnam, Edmund Klamann, Alex Richardson Organizations: REUTERS, Federal, Fed, Scotiabank . Markets, New York Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Danske Bank, Nielsen, Singapore, Bank of Japan, New Zealand, Thomson Locations: Westminster , Colorado, U.S, . U.S, Japan, China's

☆ Dollar slips as Fed hike cycle nears end; focus on US inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-11 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Several Fed officials said on Monday the central bank will likely need to raise interest rates further to bring down still-high inflation, but that the end to its current monetary policy tightening cycle is getting close. U.S. interest rate expectations have been a key driver of the dollar since the Fed began its tightening cycle last year. A survey from the New York Federal Reserve showed on Monday waning near-term inflation expectations among Americans, who said last month they were expecting the weakest near-term inflation gains in just over two years. The dollar/yen pair is particularly sensitive to U.S. yields as interest rates in Japan are anchored near zero. Elsewhere, the Australian dollar gained 0.16% to $0.6687, while the New Zealand dollar added 0.06% to $0.6216.

Persons: Sterling, Carol Kong, Rae Wee, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: Federal, Fed, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, New York Federal, Treasury, Australian, New Zealand, Macquarie, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, U.S, Asia, . U.S, Japan, China

☆ Dollar slips as Fed hike cycle nears end, focus on U.S. inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Persons: Sterling, Carol Kong Organizations: Federal, Fed, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, New York Federal, Treasury, Australian, New Zealand, Macquarie Locations: U.S, Asia, . U.S, Japan, China

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