DIRS.INFO The most relevant business & tech news

Some said he was too old, or they didn’t think he’d done much as president. Black voters in particular said they didn’t believe he was doing enough to help Black Americans. Though many said they’d probably vote for Mr. Trump, nearly all said that they weren’t excited about either option, and that Mr. Trump had personally offended them. A telephone call with a New York Times reporter is not the same as a conversation with friends or family. But it was an opportunity for a group of voters, some of them relatively disengaged, to think about the candidates, issues and campaigns.

Persons: Biden, they’d, Trump, hadn’t, It’s, Harris, Bridgette Miro, ” Organizations: Mr, New York Times Locations: Glendale, Ariz

☆ Tuesday Was Great for Democrats. It Doesn’t Change the Outlook for 2024.
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-08 | by ( Nate Cohn | More About Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Put simply: Tuesday’s results don’t change the picture for President Biden heading into 2024. The surveys show millions of voters who dislike Mr. Biden but remain receptive to other Democrats and support liberal causes. As a result, the same data showing Mr. Biden in jeopardy is entirely consistent with Democratic strength Tuesday. The crossover voteThe polls showed the Democrat winning Kentucky. They also show that voters disapprove of Mr. Biden and that Mr. Trump leads in the battleground states.

Persons: There’s, Biden, Mr, Trump Organizations: Democratic, Democrat, Kentucky Locations: Ohio

Voters in Ohio will decide on enshrining abortion rights in the state constitution, as well as legalizing recreational marijuana use. Will voters in Ohio back abortion rights? Beyond abortion, the most watched initiative will be, again, in Ohio, where voters will decide whether cannabis should be legalized for recreational use. That could put pressure on Congress to move forward legislation at least to ease restrictions on interstate banking for legal cannabis businesses. Texans will also decide whether to raise the mandatory retirement age of state judges to 79, from 75.

Persons: Biden’s, Donald J, Trump, Biden, Glenn Youngkin, Youngkin, Daniel Cameron, Andy Beshear, Steve Beshear, Beshear, Roe, Wade, Frank LaRose, Thomas E, Dobbs, Jackson, Tate Reeves, Brandon Presley, Presley’s, Brett Favre, Reeves, I’ve, Mr, Presley, Elvis Presley, Elizabeth Warren of Organizations: New York Times, Democratic, Republican, State Senate, Republicans, —, Supreme, Affordable, Mississippi Public Service Commission, Texans, Liberal Locations: Ohio, Ohio , Kentucky, Virginia , Mississippi, Siena, Virginia, Kentucky, Richmond, Kansas, Mississippi, Dobbs v, Nettleton, Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts

The Times/Siena College battleground polls released on Sunday and Monday were conducted over the past week in six swing states that are likely to decide the election: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Five of the states were won by Donald J. Trump in 2016 and then flipped by Joseph R. Biden Jr. in 2020. Nevada, which has always been a close state, came down to less than one percentage point in the 2022 U.S. Senate election. These states also contain some of the coalitions that will be crucial next fall: younger, more diverse voters in states like Arizona, Georgia and Nevada; and white working-class voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin who helped swing the election to Trump in 2016, and were central to Mr. Biden’s 2020 victory. They also provide some geographic diversity.

Persons: Donald J, Trump, Joseph R, Biden, Biden’s Organizations: Trump Locations: Siena, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada , Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, . Nevada, Nevada, Michigan , Pennsylvania

Listen and follow The DailyApple Podcasts | Spotify | Amazon MusicIn a major new campaign poll from The New York Times and Siena College, former President Donald J. Trump leads President Biden in five of the six battleground states likeliest to decide the 2024 presidential race. Widespread discontent with the state of the country and growing doubts about Biden’s ability to perform his job as president threaten to unravel the diverse coalition that elected him in 2020. Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst, explains why the results are less a reflection of Trump’s growing strength than they are of Biden’s growing weaknesses.

Persons: Donald J, Trump, Biden, Nate Cohn Organizations: Spotify, The New York Times, Siena College

Just as strikingly, Mr. Trump has cut Mr. Biden’s lead among nonwhite voters in half, not only with staggering gains among the younger part of that group but with more modest gains among older voters as well. Overall, Mr. Trump earns more than 20 percent support among Black voters, a tally that would be unprecedented in the post-Civil Rights Act era. In contrast, Mr. Biden has retained the entirety of his support among older white voters, helping him stay relatively competitive in the older and predominantly white Northern battleground states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, even as Mr. Trump builds a more comfortable lead in the more diverse Sun Belt states. The poll suggests that it shouldn’t necessarily be difficult for Mr. Biden to reassemble his winning coalition — at least on paper. To win, he merely needs to reinvigorate voters from traditional Democratic constituencies, groups that the poll finds remain quite open to Democrats in a matchup against Mr. Trump.

Persons: Trump, Biden’s, Biden Organizations: Black, Civil, Democratic, Mr, — Locations: Michigan , Wisconsin, Pennsylvania

☆ Trump Now Leads Biden
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-05 | by ( Nate Cohn | More About Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

In the last election, voters judged him to be more likable than Trump, to have a better temperament and to have a more appealing personality. Biden appears to be especially weak among young, Black and Hispanic voters. In a major departure from recent electoral trends, he and Trump are essentially tied among 18-to-29-year-old voters, even though young voters have tended to back Democrats by a wide margin in recent cycles. Among Black voters, more than 90 percent of whom usually back Democrats, Biden leads only 71-22. He holds only 50 percent of Hispanic voters across the battlegrounds, down from more than 60 percent in the last cycle.

Persons: Biden, “, ”, Trump, there’s Organizations: Trump, Black

☆ Why Less Engaged Voters Are Biden’s Biggest Problem
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-30 | by ( Nate Cohn | More About Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

First, let’s consider the 2,775 respondents from Group A:It’s relatively old: 31 percent are 65 or older; 9 percent are under 30. Next, let’s look at the 1,534 respondents from Group B:It’s relatively young: 26 percent are 18 to 29; 17 percent are 65 or older. But it’s actually Group B that backs Donald J. Trump in Times/Siena polling over the last year. Mr. Trump leads Mr. Biden, 41-39, among Group B respondents, while Group A backs Mr. Biden, 47-43. “Group B” is people who did not vote in the 2022 midterms.

Persons: Biden’s, let’s, It’s, Biden, it’s, Donald J, Trump, Mr Organizations: New York Times, Trump, Times, Mr, “ Locations: Siena

☆ Fight for Speaker Reveals Four Types of House Republicans
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-23 | by ( Nate Cohn | More About Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

Up until a few weeks ago, no member of the House Freedom Caucus had ever gotten close to becoming House speaker. After Mr. Scalise withdrew, Mr. Jordan won 124 votes in the Republican House conference vote against Austin Scott, enough to earn his party’s nomination for speaker. In the public vote on the House floor, Mr. Jordan won 200 votes on the first ballot for speaker. That’s less than 40 percent of House Republicans. None of these votes offer a perfect measure of House Republicans.

Persons: Jim Jordan’s, Jordan, Kevin McCarthy’s, Steve Scalise, Scalise, Austin Scott, — Organizations: Caucus, Republicans, Mr, Republican, House Republican

☆ It’s Not a Race, Yet, in the Republican Primary
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Nate Cohn | More About Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Donald J. Trump’s lead in the Republican primary just keeps growing. He’s approaching the position of George W. Bush, who led John McCain by a similar margin at this stage of the 2000 race. The 2000 election is a helpful reminder that the race might still become more competitive. Mr. Bush skipped the first two debates, but Mr. McCain ultimately won New Hampshire, cleared the field of significant opponents, and ultimately won six more contests. That’s more than can be said right now for Mr. Trump’s competition, which would probably go 0 for 50 if states voted today.

Persons: Donald J, Trump’s, Ron DeSantis, Trump, George W, Bush, John McCain, McCain, didn’t Organizations: Republican, Fox News, Quinnipiac Locations: rarefied, New Hampshire

☆ Why Are Democrats Losing Ground Among Nonwhite Voters? 5 Theories.
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-15 | by ( Nate Cohn | More About Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

On the other hand, 63 percent of white voters say abortion should be at least mostly legal, a tally greatly exceeding the usual Democratic support among white voters. Democrats showed similar — if less acute — weaknesses with these voters in 2018 and during most Trump-era special elections. Many hold conservative views on issues, like opposition to same-sex marriage. These moderate or conservative nonwhite voters consider themselves Democrats because they see the party as representing them and their interests, not because they have party-line views on every issue. If so, Republican gains among nonwhite voters might naturally result from Democrats’ leftward shift over the last few years.

Persons: they’re, Mr, Biden, Democratic centrists, it’s, ’, Trump’s, Sanders, “, ” Organizations: Democratic, Trump, Republicans

☆ Consistent Signs of Erosion in Black and Hispanic Support for Biden
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( Nate Cohn | More About Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

With more than a year to go until the election, there’s plenty of time for Mr. Biden to re-energize his former supporters. Weak support for Mr. Biden could easily manifest itself as low turnout — as it did in 2022 — even if many young and less engaged voters ultimately do not vote for Mr. Trump. Many of Mr. Biden’s vulnerabilities — like his age and inflation — could exacerbate the trend, as nonwhite voters tend to be younger and less affluent than white voters. Issues like abortion and threats to democracy may also do less to guard against additional losses among Black and Hispanic voters, who tend to be more conservative than white Biden voters. They may also do less to satisfy voters living paycheck to paycheck: Mr. Biden is underperforming most among nonwhite voters making less than $100,000 per year, at least temporarily erasing the century-old tendency for Democrats to fare better among lower-income than higher-income nonwhite voters.

Persons: Biden, Mr, Trump Organizations: Times, Mr, Biden Locations: Siena

☆ Opinion | The Trump Trial Date Is a Big Mistake
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-30 | by ( Ross Douthat | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

These choices are often defended with the suggestion that any critique is just a bad-faith attempt to let Trump or his voters off the hook. Yes, there’s always “the possibility that Mr. Trump collapses under the weight of his legal challenges,” as my colleague Nate Cohn puts it. To beat Trump in the primary, any challenger would need part of that bloc to resist the rallying impulse and swing their way instead. There may be Republican voters who regard these prosecutions as theater designed to keep Trump from the nomination and therefore expect the legal cases to fall apart when his lawyers make their defense. electorate said they wouldn’t vote for Trump if he were convicted of a felony, compared with 35 percent (that Trumpian core again) who said they would, and that more than half said they wouldn’t support him in the fall campaign if he were imprisoned.

Persons: Trump, there’s, ”, Nate Cohn, he’s, Bill Clinton Organizations: G.O.P, Trump, Republican, Reuters

☆ The Race for Second Place: Making Sense of the G.O.P. Debate
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( Nate Cohn | More About Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

How does Mr. DeSantis fit into this rubric? His decision to avoid fights over Ukraine and Jan. 6 now looks like a deft effort to avoid dividing his potential supporters. No, he didn’t go after Mr. Trump, but in pulling his punches he avoided alienating voters who like the former president. Perhaps surprisingly, Mr. DeSantis seemed to come out of the debate entirely unscathed: No one seriously attacked him at all. After all, he entered the debate in second place in high-quality polls and he’s always been the clear second choice of Mr. Trump’s supporters.

Persons: Burgum, Biden, Trump, Christie, Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, Mr, didn’t, DeSantis, he’s, Trump’s Organizations: Mr Locations: Ukraine

☆ The 6 Kinds of Republican Voters
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-17 | by ( Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +15 min

But if the Republican Party is no longer in Reagan’s image, it’s not necessarily a populist-conservative MAGA monolith, either. But if the Republican Party isn’t quite a MAGA monolith, what is it? The groups were defined by how Republican-leaning voters felt on the issues — not how they felt about Mr. Trump. In fact, Mr. Trump leads Mr. DeSantis among every group of Republican voters identified in the analysis. They’re the smallest group of Republicans today, but this group of relatively moderate but anti-woke voters might play an important role in the Republican Party in the years ahead.

Persons: Donald J, Trump, Ronald Reagan’s, it’s, MAGA, Trump’s, Mr, They’re, ” They’re, it’s Mr, ”, —, Trump’s MAGA, don’t, Ron DeSantis, Susan Collins, Charlie Baker, Chris Sununu, Reagan, Bush, Biden, John Kasich, Marco Rubio, DeSantis, Rick Perry, Tim Scott, Rubio, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Romney, Liz Cheney, Roe, Wade, Ted Cruz, Newt Gingrich Trump, It’s, likeliest, Cruz, Rudy Giuliani, Paul LePage, Lou Barletta, Michael Grimm Trump, ” Reagan, Rand Paul, Jason Chaffetz, Dave Brat Trump, Vivek Ramaswamy, President Biden, they’re, “ Organizations: Right, Libertarian Conservatives, Moderate, Republican Party, New York Times, Siena College, Republican, Times, Mr, Conservatives, Fox, Trump, Blue, Trump Republican Party, Freedom Caucus, Fox News, Trump —, Republicans, Radicals, ” Reagan Democrats, Obama, Trump voters, President Locations: Ukraine, Siena, America, New York City, It’s

☆ It’s Not Reagan’s Party Anymore
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Nate Cohn | More About Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

Mr. Trump’s first primary campaign amounted to a hostile takeover of the old Republican Party. Perhaps surprisingly, the poll found little evidence that Republican voters who still sit upon Mr. Reagan’s stool make up an outsized share of the G.O.P. Either way, Mr. Trump has more than 50 percent of the primary vote among the Reaganites — and more than 50 percent of the anti-Reaganite vote. Mr. Trump’s support among the vestigial, traditionally conservative wing of the party is a reminder that his takeover of the party didn’t necessarily amount to a total repudiation of the conservative agenda. After all, Mr. Trump still cut income taxes, attempted to repeal Obamacare and appointed Supreme Court justices who helped overturn Roe v. Wade.

Persons: Trump’s, Paul Ryan, Mitt Romney, Trump, Reagan, Roe, Wade, Mr Organizations: Republican Party, America, Republican, Reagan Locations: Iraq, Ukraine

☆ Is Trump Leaving an Opening in Iowa?
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-04 | by ( Nate Cohn | More About Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +3 min

But unlike the national poll, our Iowa poll has revealed a few cracks in Mr. Trump’s armor. debate on Aug. 23 in our national poll earlier this week. One is that it’s about survey administration: In an online survey, you see a long list of candidates, read them over, and then you choose one. The Democratic primary, however, is a case where more sophisticated modeling of the primary electorate might make a huge difference. My guess: if we had done an elaborate Democratic primary poll — and we did not, in the absence of a competitive race — Mr. Biden’s lead would have grown.

Persons: DeSantis, Trump, Will Hurd, Hurd, Vivek Ramaswamy, Ramaswamy, YouGov, Biden, Robert F, Kennedy Jr, Democratic leaners, Biden’s Organizations: Republican, Republicans, Democratic Locations: Iowa, Texas, Siena

With Donald Trump facing charges in three different criminal cases, the biggest questions in American politics are whether that creates an opening for his Republican rivals in the presidential race — and whether it disqualifies him in the eyes of general election voters. A new set of Times polls has answers to those questions. It shows the president and the former president still tied among registered voters, each at 43 percent. Nate Cohn, The New York Times’s chief political analyst, talks us through the first Times/Siena polling of the 2024 election cycle.

Persons: Donald Trump, Nate Cohn Organizations: Republican, The, Times Locations: Siena

☆ Can the Race Really Be That Close? Yes, Biden and Trump Are Tied.
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( Nate Cohn | More About Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

But Mr. Biden shows little strength of his own. Democrats can’t necessarily assume the race will snap back into a clear Biden lead once people tune into the race, either. They dislike Mr. Trump more than they dislike Mr. Biden, and the political environment, including promising economic news, seems increasingly favorable to Mr. Biden. And the upside for Mr. Biden among the dissenting 14 percent of voters isn’t necessarily as great as it might look. A two-point edge is certainly better for Mr. Biden than a tie, but it’s not exactly a commanding advantage.

Persons: Mr, Biden, can’t, Trump, —, wasn’t, David Leonhardt Organizations: The, Mr

☆ Why Trump Is So Hard to Beat
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-31 | by ( Nate Cohn | More About Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Perhaps Mr. DeSantis or another Republican will peel away a few of these voters, but realistically this group isn’t going anywhere, maybe not even if Mr. Trump winds up being imprisoned. This group is probably about the same as the voters — 37 percent — who supported Mr. Trump in the polls on Super Tuesday in 2016. Most of the Republican electorate either doesn’t strongly support Mr. Trump in the primary or doesn’t support him at all. electorate seemingly devoted to Mr. Trump, the path to defeating him is exceptionally narrow. It requires a candidate to consolidate the preponderance of the rest of the Republican electorate, and the rest of the Republican electorate is not easy to unify.

Persons: —, “, Trump, It’s Organizations: Republicans —, Republican

☆ Donald Trump Is Polling Far Ahead of His G.O.P. Rivals
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-31 | by ( Matthew Cullen | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

A dozen Republicans are campaigning to secure their party’s nomination in next year’s presidential election. But the race between them is not remotely close, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll that was released today. Donald Trump leads his next closest challenger, Ron DeSantis, by 37 percentage points. And no leading presidential candidate has ever faced the kind of federal and state charges that Trump currently does. Trump’s lead is thanks in large part to what Nate calls his MAGA base, which represents roughly 37 percent of the Republican electorate and is exceptionally loyal to Trump.

Persons: Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, —, Trump, Nate Cohn, Nate, MAGA Organizations: New York Times, Siena College, Republican, Trump

☆ How Did We Do? A Review of 2022 Before Our First Poll of 2023.
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( Nate Cohn | More About Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +7 min

With the data from 2022 in and final, we’ve been poring over the data — including our experiment in Wisconsin — to identify opportunities for improvement. The big Wisconsin mail experiment — where we paid voters up to $25 dollars to take a mail survey — didn’t reveal anything especially alarming about our typical Times/Siena polls. On many measures — gun ownership, evangelical Christianity, vaccination status — the Times/Siena poll looked more conservative than the mail poll. The Wisconsin study did offer ambiguous evidence that Times/Siena phone respondents lean a bit farther to the left than the respondents to the mail survey. We’re reordering our questionnaires to let us look at and potentially use respondents who drop out of a survey early.

Persons: we’ve, we’ll, Donald J, Trump, MAGA, That’s, they’ve, We’re, Ron DeSantis Organizations: Times, Kansas, Democratic, Democrats, Republican Locations: Wisconsin, Siena

☆ Hard Questions if Biden’s Approval Doesn’t Follow Economy’s Rise
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-21 | by ( Nate Cohn | More About Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

To this point in his presidency, it has been fairly easy to attribute his low ratings to economic conditions. But if inflation has been what’s holding Mr. Biden back, it’s hard to say it should hold him back for too much longer. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index surged 13 percent in July, reaching the highest level since September 2021 — the first full month Mr. Biden’s approval ratings were beneath 50 percent. There’s another factor that ought to help Mr. Biden’s approval rating: the onset of a new phase of the Republican primary campaign, including debates. Some of the Democratic-leaning voters who currently disapprove of Mr. Biden might begin to look at the Biden presidency in a different light.

Persons: it’s, Mr, Biden, — Organizations: University of Michigan, Republican, Democratic, Biden Locations: Britain, U.S, Weimar Germany

☆ What Really Happened in the Midterms?
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-14 | by ( Nate Cohn | More About Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

More than eight months later, all the data from the 2022 midterm elections is — finally — final. The two most rigorous reports, from the Pew Research Center and Catalist, are finished. You might imagine ways to square the two claims, but neither report offers a clear way to reconcile these competing stories. Catalist, a Democratic data firm, doesn’t mention a word on the partisan makeup of the electorate, despite possessing the data to do so. The Pew report, meanwhile, is framed around explaining how Republicans won the House popular vote by three points — an important outcome, but one overshadowed by the Democratic hold in the Senate and the razor-thin Republican House majority.

Persons: ” Pew Organizations: Pew Research Center, Republicans, Biden, Democratic, Pew

☆ Kennedy, Christie and the Supreme Court: Are They Changing the Race?
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( Nate Cohn | More About Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

But the requests I do have nonetheless center on a similar set of topics: a major Supreme Court decision, this time to end affirmative action programs, and two upstart candidates who weren’t receiving a lot of attention before I left, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Chris Christie. Court gives Democrats some coverAs I wrote at the time, the Supreme Court’s decision to make same-sex marriage a fundamental right was probably politically advantageous for Republicans. Yes, the court decision was popular and the Republican position on same-sex marriage was increasingly unpopular, but that’s precisely why that decision did them a favor: It all but removed the issue from political discourse, freeing Republicans from an issue that might have otherwise hobbled them. In theory, something similar can be said for the court’s affirmative action ruling, but this time with the decision helping Democrats. Here again, the court is taking a popular position that potentially frees a political party — this time the Democrats — from an issue that could hurt it, including with the fast-growing group of Asian American voters.

Persons: Donald J, Trump, Robert F, Kennedy Jr, Chris Christie Organizations: Republicans, Republican, Asian American Locations: China, Pacific

Search resuls for: "Nate Cohn"

25 mentions found