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☆ Critical inflation report could be the key to the week ahead, as the Fed meets
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Inflation and a hawkish Fed "I think the data can influence his press conference and how hawkish he is," said NatWest Markets' John Briggs. "If you get a higher CPI report on the back of that, it could create some significant market instability ahead of the Fed meeting." Recession fears "If you're more worried about recession than inflation, that means you bring in more bond buyers than sellers," he said. Retail sales, industrial production, and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey as well as the Empire State manufacturing survey are released Thursday. Import prices 2:00 p.m. Fed statement and projections 2:30 p.m. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell briefing Thursday Earnings: Adobe, Jabil 8:30 a.m.

The Euro STOXX 600 (.STOXX) gained 0.4%, recovering from its worst session in almost two weeks a day earlier. Shares in London (.FTSE) were up 0.8% and markets in Paris (.FCHI) and Frankfurt (.GDAXI) gained around 0.2%-0.3%. Hopes of faster easing of China's strict restrictions rose after an official said they will continue to fine-tune policy to reduce the impact of its "Zero COVID" on society. The sudden bout of optimism on China combined with talk of possible output cuts by OPEC+ to help oil prices rally. Shares of Chinese property companies surged after the country's securities regulator lifted a ban on equity refinancing for listed property firms.

☆ Asia shares take comfort in China property rally
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Shares of Chinese property companies surged after the country's securities regulator lifted a ban on equity refinancing for listed property firms. read moreThat helped Chinese blue chips (.CSI300) bounce 1.1%, while MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) added 0.7%. Markets were still nervous that the widening web of restrictions in China would lead to more public unrest and further undermine growth. read more"The zero China COVID policy has been an absolute gut punch to Apple's supply chain," said Daniel Ives, an analyst at Wedbush. The dollar index rallied to 106.57 , having been as low as 105.31 overnight.

read moreTwo-year yields crept back up to 4.46%, retracing a little of last week's sharp inflation-driven drop of 33 basis points to a low of 4.29%. The bond market's warnings of recession were not what Wall Street wanted to hear, and they left S&P 500 futures flat on Friday, while Nasdaq futures inched up 0.1%. EUROSTOXX 50 futures added 0.7% and FTSE futures 0.3%. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) bounced 0.6%, after slipping for two sessions. The dollar edged up to 140.20 yen and away from its recent low of 137.67, but faced resistance around 140.70/80.

☆ Analysis: Investors face expensive quest for year-end cash and safe assets
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Money markets too suggest securing cash and quality assets investors need to make a smooth transition into 2023 will be expensive. But analysts noted year-end is still 1-1/2 months away and the spread tends to widen in late November as demand for cash rises. The risk is any unexpected news emerging as liquidity thins further in December, requiring investors to reconsider positioning. BofA said it now sees year-end German repo 6 percentage points below the overnight rate, which it said would still make it the most expensive on record for investors borrowing bonds then. "It's still early days, but (last year's repo pricing) would probably be the best case already in terms of year-end pricing," Commerzbank's Leister said.

☆ Year-end rally ignited as inflation cools and rates fall, loosening their grip on stock market
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Treasury yields fell sharply and eased their grip on the stock market Thursday, helping fuel the monster rally that broke out after a report of cooler-than-expected inflation data. The rise in yields this year has choked off stock market gains and weighed on technology and growth stocks in particular. In the futures market, traders were betting Thursday that the Fed would raise its fed funds futures rate to 4.88% before stopping next spring. But now there are signs the strong dollar may not be such a drag. ...The strong dollar has been a headwind for earnings, and it will probably become a tail wind.

☆ Dollar catches breath while investors await midterms; cryptos skittish
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The greenback has been under downward pressure from bets on the Federal Reserve easing back on interest rate rises and on China reopening and driving growth. It touched multi-week lows against the euro, Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar overnight, then edged off those levels during the Asia session. Some analysts view likely Congressional gridlock as a slight negative for the dollar if it limits fiscal spending. MORE TO DOLooming on Thursday is U.S. inflation data. The New Zealand dollar wobbled 0.3% lower to $0.5942.

☆ U.S. job growth seen smallest in nearly two years in October, unemployment rate up
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"The labor market is basically OK, but it does seem to be slowing," said Guy Berger, principal economist at LinkedInin San Francisco. "The Fed is going to try to thread the needle where they slow down the labor market enough to put downward pressure on wages and inflation, without causing a recession." Still, the labor market remains tight, with 1.9 job openings per unemployed person at the end of September. Stripping out any distortions from the weather and calendar quirk, wage growth is cooling. "We believe we've seen wage growth peak," said Michelle Green, principal economist at Prevedere in Columbus, Ohio.

The Hang Seng (.HSI) surged 5.3% and notched its biggest weekly gain in 11 years. Shares in online giants Alibaba (9988.HK) and JD.com (9618.HK) each rose more than 10% and the Hang Seng Tech index (.HSTECH) rose 7.5%. However the Hang Seng remains down 30% this year against a 24% fall in world stocks (.MIWD00000PUS). China stocks market capBUY THE RUMOURChanges to COVID policies have not been officially flagged. Yet markets have desperate reasons to rally after the Hang Seng hit a 13-year low last month in the wake of China's Communist Party Congress.

SINGAPORE/HONG KONG, Nov 4 (Reuters) - Chinese stocks soared and the yuan jumped on Friday, setting Hong Kong's Hang Seng on course for its best week in a decade, on hopes for twin relief in U.S.-China tension and COVID rules. The Hang Seng (.HSI) surged either side of the midday break and was last up 7%, and heading for a weekly gain of more than 10% for the first time since November 2011. The Shanghai Composite (.SSEC) rose 2.7% and was headed for a 5.6% weekly gain, the largest in more than two years. The Hang Seng Tech index (.HSTECH) rose 8%. The yuan rose about 0.9% to 7.2410 per dollar, despite broad dollar gains elsewhere.

☆ Asia shares slip, Fed flags higher rates for longer
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-03 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Investors were initially cheered that the Fed opened the door to a slowdown in the pace of hikes after raising interest rates 75 basis points to 3.75-4.0%, by noting that policy acted with a lag. But Chair Jerome Powell soured the mood by saying it was "very premature" to think about pausing and that the peak for rates would likely be higher than previously expected. Futures were now split on whether the Fed would move by 50 or 75 basis points in December, and nudged up the top for rates to 5.0-5.25% likely by May next year. "Higher for longer" was not what the equity markets wanted to hear and Wall Street fell sharply after Powell's comments. Early Thursday, S&P 500 futures were off another 0.3%, while Nasdaq futures fell 0.2%.

☆ Caution creeps into world stocks as Fed gets ready to hike big again
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( Dhara Ranasinghe | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Another aggressive rate hike to contain hot inflation when the Fed conclides its two-day meeting later is anticipated. For markets, the key question is whether the Fed will also signal it could slow additional rate hikes, in a so-called dovish pivot. European stock markets opened higher, but moved lower as the day wore on. U.S. stock futures, which provide an indication of how Wall Street will open, also lost some of their strength and were mixed , . The robust dollar retreated in October on speculation the Fed might indicate a slowdown in its aggressive tightening campaign.

☆ World stocks upbeat, even as Fed gets ready to hike big again
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( Dhara Ranasinghe | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

For markets, the key question is whether the Fed will also signal it could slow additional rate hikes, in a so-called dovish pivot. European stock markets opened mostly firmer (.STOXX), Asian shares outside Japan rallied to a two-week high (.MIAPJ0000PUS) and U.S. equity futures pointed to a firm open for Wall Street , . Cummins expects the Fed to step down to a 50 bps hike in December. It fell 0.75% against the Japanese yen to 147.16 yen amid fears of intervention from authorities and thin liquidity. The robust dollar has pulled back in October on speculation the Fed might indicate a slowdown in its aggressive tightening campaign.

☆ Asian shares rise, dollar dips ahead of Fed policy decision
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

European markets looked set to extend the cautious optimism, with the pan-region Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.5%. However, traders are split on the size of the hike in December, with futures market pricing in a 44.5% probability of a 50-bps increase, according to CME's Fed tool. It fell 0.5% against the Japanese yen to 147.6 yen amid fears of intervention from authorities and thin liquidity. In commodities, oil climbed after industry data showed a surprise drop in U.S. crude stockpiles, suggesting demand is holding up. U.S. crude oil futures rose 1.4% to $89.65 per barrel, while Brent crude futures was up 1.2% at $95.82.

☆ Asian shares waver, dollar dips ahead of Fed policy decision
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

However, traders are split on the size of the hike in December, with futures market pricing in a 44.5% probability of a 50-bps increase, according to CME's Fed tool. Cummins expects the Fed to step down to a 50 basis point rate hike in December. That sparked a reversal in Treasury yields and lifted market bets on interest rates to above 5% next year. In commodities, oil climbed after industry data showed a surprise drop in U.S. crude stockpiles, suggesting demand is holding up. U.S. crude oil futures rose 0.5% to $88.93 per barrel, while Brent crude futures was up 0.4% at $94.98.

☆ Michelle Girard and Priya Misra break down today's Fed policy meeting
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNatWest's Girard and TD Securities' Misra break down what to expect from today's Fed policy meetingMichelle Girard, Head of U.S. at NatWest Markets, and Priya Misra, Global Head of Rates Strategy at TD Securities, join Worldwide Exchange to discuss their expectations for the Federal Reserve's November interest rate decision.

☆ Dollar, bond yields rise ahead of pivotal rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-31 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Combined with news that Italy's economy grew far more strongly than expected in the third quarter, euro zone bond yields moved higher EUR/GVD although the euro succumbed to another bout of U.S. dollar strength. /FRX"A lot of data is coming out this week and lot of central banks are meeting," said Societe Generale strategist Kit Juckes. Palm oil futures rose nearly 5%. In the oil markets, Brent crude futures fell 1% to $94.65 a barrel, while spot gold was fractionally lower at $1,637 an ounce in the precious metals markets. Additional reporting by Tom Westbrook in Singapore; Editing by Kirsten Donovan and Angus MacSwanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Stocks splutter, euro falls ahead of euro zone inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-31 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

,Euro zone October inflation numbers due shortly are seen hitting a fresh record of 10.2% year on year, in what will make for more uncomfortable reading for the European Central Bank, which is targeting 2% price growth. Combined with news that Italy's economy grew far more strongly than expected in the third quarter, euro zone bond yields moved higher EUR/GVD although the euro succumbed to another bout of U.S. dollar strength. /FRX"A lot of data is coming out this week and lot of central banks are meeting," said Societe Generale strategist Kit Juckes. We are now waiting for euro zone GDP and CPI. S&P 500 futures fell 0.2%, while Germany's 10-year government bond yield, the benchmark for the euro area, was up 5.5 basis points (bps) to 2.143%.

☆ Stocks rally wobbles as Fed hike draws near
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-31 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 1%, though China stocks were held flat by disappointing economic data. The index is down ten months in a row and near two-year lows, rattled by growth and interest-rate hike fears. The mixed performance follows an erratic earnings season on Wall Street and bond and currency markets tempering some wagers on a change in tone from the Fed. S&P 500 futures fell 0.2%, while European futures rose 0.4%. Palm oil futures rose nearly 5%.

☆ Asia stocks creep higher on hopes Fed will tone down hikes
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-31 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

But China stocks fell following weak economic data, and the MSCI index is set for a tenth consecutive monthly loss. The performance follows a Friday rally on Wall Street but comes with bond and currency markets tempering some wagers on a change in tone from the Fed. S&P 500 futures fell 0.2%. Corn futures rose 2%. Rates and Fed funds futures traders have now tempered initial optimism and see the funds rate hitting near 5% by May next year.

LONDON, Oct 27 (Reuters) - Germany, considered Europe's most reliable debtor, is having trouble selling its bonds, just as it seeks billions to tackle the energy crisis. Hit hard by its over-reliance on Russian energy, Germany intends to borrow particularly large amounts in the coming years, with Parliament last week voting to suspend the constitutional debt brake that limits new borrowing. France's finance agency, in contrast, issued 10 billion euros of medium term bonds on Oct. 20 into strong demand. VOLATILITY HURTS AUCTIONSThe uncertainty around borrowing and QT has increased volatility in euro zone bond markets, already rocked by the knock-on effects from Britain's now-scrapped plans for large unfunded tax cuts. Volatility is deterring the banks that act as dealers for German bonds from bidding in debt auctions, Tammo Diemer, head of the country's finance agency, said at an event on Tuesday.

☆ Dollar weathers suspected yen intervention, China data mixed
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

SYDNEY (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar weathered another suspected blast of Japanese intervention to push higher on the yen on Monday, while most share markets rallied on just the hint of an eventual slowdown in U.S. rate hikes. REUTERS/Issei KatoThe dollar started in a bullish mood with an early rush to 149.70 yen, before taking a sudden spill as far as 145.28 in a matter of minutes. Yet speculators seemed undaunted and took the dollar back up to 148.90 in choppy trading. Also moving was sterling, which see-sawed on news Boris Johnson had dropped out of running for British prime minister. The Bank of Canada is also expected to tighten by 75 basis points at its meeting this week.

☆ Dollar shrugs off suspected yen intervention, Europe clings to Fed hopes
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( Wayne Cole | Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

LONDON/SYDNEY (Reuters) - The dollar weathered another suspected blast of Japanese intervention to rise against the yen on Monday, while European markets got a lift from hopes that U.S. interest rates could rise more slowly than previously thought. Japanese authorities again declined to confirm whether they had intervened, but the price action suggested they had. Sterling, meanwhile, see-sawed in volatile trade on news Boris Johnson had dropped out of the running for British prime minister. The peak for rates has also edged down to around 4.87%, from above 5% early last week. “Although we do not expect any ‘dovish’ policy signal, we maintain a bias towards a lower rate path than currently priced by markets,” said analysts at NatWest Markets in a note.

☆ Dollar absorbs suspected yen intervention, China data mixed
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

SYDNEY (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar weathered another suspected blast of Japanese intervention to push higher on the yen on Monday, while for equities a drop in Chinese markets took the shine off hopes for an eventual slowdown in U.S. interest rate hikes. REUTERS/Issei KatoThe dollar started in a bullish mood with an early rush to 149.70 yen, before taking a sudden spill as far as 145.28 in a matter of minutes. Yet speculators seemed undaunted and took the dollar back up to 148.90 in choppy trading. Japanese authorities again declined to confirm whether they had intervened, but the price action strongly suggested they had. [GOL/]Oil prices surrendered early gains following soft data on Chinese demand.

"It's a catch-up, or catch-down, kind of effect," said Galvin Chia, an emerging markets strategist at NatWest Markets. "There are some exceptional factors, but none of these would provide that kind of panacea for underlying risks that remain." Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves fell by $1.4 billion last month to $130.8 billion, due to debt payments and Bank Indonesia's efforts to stabilise the rupiah. read moreData for September also showed a surge in Indonesia's inflation to a seven-year high, reflecting a jump in fuel prices. "If you look at consumption, look at credit growth, everything is domestic, unlike the other export markets in Asia.

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