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Nine of the 11 Crop Watch corn fields should be tasseling within the next 10 days or so. Although cool July weather generally supports big crop yields, a couple of the Crop Watch producers mentioned that their fields could benefit from some heat and sun. The weekly increase was Crop Watch corn’s largest since late June 2021, when much-needed rain finally fell in the central Corn Belt. Soybean conditions jumped to 4.05 from 3.73 in the prior week, Crop Watch beans’ biggest-ever weekly improvement but similar to that same week in June 2021. Photos of the Crop Watch fields can be tracked on my Twitter feed using handle @kannbwx.
Persons: Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Crop, Crop Watch, U.S . Department of, Watch, Southeastern Illinois, Nebraska, South, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Ohio, North Dakota, Nebraska , Kansas, Indiana, Illinois . North Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota , Kansas, Illinois, North Dakota , Kansas , Indiana, Dakota, Minnesota, South Dakota, Kingsbury , South Dakota, Freeborn , Minnesota, Burt , Nebraska, Rice , Kansas, Audubon , Iowa, Cedar , Iowa, Warren , Illinois, Crawford , Illinois, Tippecanoe , Indiana, Fairfield , Ohio, The North Dakota, Griggs County, Stutsman County
Chicago corn, wheat, soybean and soybean meal futures began rallying sharply in mid-June as expanding U.S. drought and disappointing rain events hammered crop conditions. Trade sources had pegged the week’s net corn selling to be about four times heavier. Trade sources peg funds’ net selling in CBOT corn futures at 55,500 contracts over the last three sessions, and CBOT wheat selling is seen at 20,500 futures contracts. Funds were seen as net buyers of 8,000 soybean futures, 9,500 soyoil futures and 3,500 soymeal futures between Wednesday and Friday. Money managers’ weekly net selling in CBOT corn futures and options has twice exceeded 100,000 contracts this calendar year.
Persons: Gross, Wheat, Karen Braun, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: U.S . Department of Agriculture, corn’s, Funds, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, U.S, Chicago
This set of reports is associated with the largest average CBOT corn and soy moves of the 15 major USDA report days per year. Directionally, corn and soy futures on June 30 tend to react to acres far more often than stocks, though U.S. weather forecasts often add to the chaos. In the six sessions ended Thursday, CBOT December corn futures plunged 15.9%, June’s biggest six-session loss in at least three decades. Analysts basically nailed both corn acres and June 1 corn stocks last year, which was unprecedented, but December futures fell more than 5% on report day. Trade biases for June 30 U.S. stocks, acres versus pricesTrade biases on June 30 U.S. soy stocks, acres versus pricesKaren Braun is a market analyst for Reuters.
Persons: Corn, Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S . Department, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, U.S
Soybeans were pegged at 87.67 million acres, up from 87.5 million in March. The soybean range of 1.5 million acres is the smallest since 2005 and below the 2.75-million average. In the last four years, corn acres also ended up out-of-range in the two years where trade guesses varied the most (2020, 2019). This year’s corn planting pace was near the longer-term average, but heavy rains were problematic in North Dakota for a second consecutive year. Analysts’ corn numbers were too high in 2021 and 2020, but they were too low in the four prior years.
Persons: Rains, Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S . Department of Agriculture, Analysts, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, USDA’s, North Dakota
That caused some offsetting of Crop Watch conditions in the latest week, though a small decline was observed overall. Crop Watch conditions are intended as more of a visual assessment than a yield indicator. Crop Watch condition averages are not weighted due to the sample size, though USDA’s conditions are weighted by acreage estimates. Photos of the Crop Watch fields can be tracked on my Twitter feed using handle @kannbwx. Crop Watch Conditions: June 25, 2023Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters.
Persons: Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Crop Watch, U.S . Department of, South Dakota, Nebraska, Crop, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, U.S, Nebraska, Illinois, South Dakota, Iowa, North Dakota, South, Kansas, Ohio, Minnesota, Indiana, Kingsbury , South Dakota, Freeborn , Minnesota, Burt , Nebraska, Rice , Kansas, Audubon , Iowa, Cedar , Iowa, Warren , Illinois, Crawford , Illinois, Tippecanoe , Indiana, Fairfield , Ohio, The North Dakota, Griggs County, Stutsman County
In the four-day week ended June 20, money managers erased a combined 100,000 gross short positions across CBOT corn, wheat, soybeans, soy products, Kansas City and Minneapolis wheat, the most for any week since August 2020. Money managers also added 45,000 gross longs last week, the most in four months and driven primarily by corn, where new longs outnumbered short covering. Net buying in soybeans last week was split between new longs and short covering, though funds’ latest moves in CBOT wheat and soybean oil were exclusively the result of short covering. They also increased their net long in CBOT soybeans to a two-month high of 76,950 futures and options contracts versus 47,882 a week earlier. Both new-crop corn and soybean futures rose more than 8% in the week ended June 20 amid near-record dryness in top-producing U.S. states.
Persons: Karen Braun, Lisa Shumaker Organizations: Environmental Protection Agency, parched, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Chicago, Kansas City, Minneapolis, CBOT, U.S, parched U.S, United States
But with its so-called Infinite Kitchen, Sweetgreen joins the legion of restaurant companies incorporating automation into their businesses. Sweetgreen plans to open a second Infinite Kitchen location later this year. Unlike the traditional Sweetgreen restaurant, customers won't have to wait 10 to 15 minutes to pick up mobile orders. Source: SweetgreenBehind the counter is the "Infinite Kitchen," which resembles the bulk food dispensers found in some grocery stores. Employees have to set up the Infinite Kitchen in the morning, ensuring it's well-stocked and calibrated for accurate and consistent portions.
Persons: Sweetgreen, Jonathan Neman, William Blair, hasn't, Spyce, , Timothy Noonan, Noonan, they're, T.D, Cowen Organizations: William, William Blair Growth Stock, MIT, IK, CNBC, Employees, Workers Locations: Chicago, Naperville , Illinois, Boston, Neman, New York, Naperville
SUPPLY AND DEMANDLast month, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s initial stab at 2023-24 U.S. corn supply and demand got people talking. U.S. corn demand has been lousy lately and has struggled to compete with plentiful Brazilian supplies. But USDA’s 2023-24 corn demand assumptions are actually conservative by comparison. Year-on-year changes in U.S. corn supply and useCROP COMPARISONSThe corn harvest was record-large in 2013, and 2023 is expected to feature another high. U.S. corn conditions week 23 versus yieldKaren Braun is a market analyst for Reuters.
Persons: Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S . Department, USDA, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, U.S, Chicago, Iowa, Illinois
Each week the Crop Watch producers assign condition scores to their fields on a 1-to-5 scale. Crop Watch conditions do not incorporate yield assumptions, which will come later in the season. The North Dakota corn is in Griggs County and the soybeans are in Stutsman. Photos of the Crop Watch fields can be tracked on my Twitter feed using handle @kannbwx. Crop Watch 2023 ProducersKaren Braun is a market analyst for Reuters.
Persons: Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Crop, U.S . Department of Agriculture’s, South, Kansas, Indiana, Producers, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, U.S, North Dakota, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio, South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio, Nebraska, Indiana , Illinois , Iowa, Kingsbury , South Dakota, Freeborn , Minnesota, Burt , Nebraska, Rice , Kansas, Audubon , Iowa, Cedar , Iowa, Warren , Illinois, Crawford , Illinois, Tippecanoe , Indiana, Fairfield , Ohio, The North Dakota, Griggs County
Gains across most-active CBOT futures in the week ended June 6 were as follows: corn 2.4%, soybeans 4.4%, wheat 6.2%, soymeal 1% and soyoil 10.2%. They also trimmed their net short in CBOT corn futures and options to 44,492 contracts from 51,065 in the prior week. Managed money net position in CBOT corn futures and optionsCommodity funds in mid-March established a net short in CBOT corn for the first time since August 2020, but they have not held a net short in soybeans since April 2020. Funds slashed their net short to 16,173 futures and options contracts from a record 31,110 a week earlier. Most-active soybean oil featured the biggest gains at 7.2%, and corn was the biggest loser with December down 1.9% and most-active corn down 0.6%, mostly on weekend rain expectations for the U.S. Corn Belt.
Persons: soymeal, Karen Braun, Diane Craft Organizations: Funds, Wednesday, U.S, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Chicago, CBOT soyoil, Midwest
The economist Selma Hepp says home prices in some areas are rising because of limited inventory. The US housing market started off on a solid footing this year as home prices rose. In April, prices for single-family homes rose by 2% year-over-year and 1.2% from the previous month, according to CoreLogic's Home Price Index. Below is a list of 51 metropolitan areas expected to see the most home-price increases in the next 12 months, from the highest to the lowest. The CoreLogic HPIFinally, while mortgage rates can be difficult to predict, Hepp said that we had likely peaked for the year.
Persons: Selma Hepp, it's, Hepp, CoreLogic's, Louis, CoreLogic Organizations: Irvine CA Metropolitan, Everett WA Metropolitan Division, Arcade, Statistical, Oakland, Berkeley CA Metropolitan, Metropolitan Statistical, Riverside, Jacksonville FL, Vegas, Paradise, Clearwater FL, Newark, Sanford FL, Angeles, Glendale CA Metropolitan, Palm Beach, Boca Raton, Delray Beach FL, Cambridge, Suffolk County NY Metropolitan, Towson, Metropolitan, Fort Lauderdale, Boston, Scottsdale, Scottsdale AZ Metropolitan Statistical, Miami, Kendall FL Metropolitan, Alexandria DC, Bloomington, Franklin TN Metropolitan, Virginia, Newport News, Livonia MI, Gastonia NC, SC Metropolitan, West Allis WI Metropolitan, Philadelphia PA Metropolitan, Kansas City, KS Metropolitan, Providence, Richmond VA Metropolitan, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh PA, Oklahoma City, Cleveland, Elyria, NJ, Columbus OH, Houston, Indianapolis, Arlington TX Metropolitan, Dallas, Irving TX Metropolitan Locations: Anaheim , California, Seattle, Sacramento , California, West Coast, Metropolitan, Anaheim, Santa Ana, Irvine, Bellevue, Sacramento, Roseville, Hayward, Berkeley, Portland, Vancouver, Hillsboro, San Bernardino, Ontario, Diego, Carlsbad CA, Denver, Aurora, Lakewood, Henderson, Tampa, St, Petersburg, Clearwater, Newark NJ, Orlando, Kissimmee, Sanford, Long, Glendale CA, Palm, Delray Beach, Newton, Framingham, Nassau County, Suffolk, Baltimore, Columbia, Pompano Beach, Deerfield Beach FL, Mesa, Scottsdale AZ, Miami, Kendall, Montgomery County, Bucks County, Chester County, Washington, Arlington, Alexandria, Sandy Springs, Roswell, Minneapolis, Paul, WI, Murfreesboro, Virginia Beach, Norfolk, Detroit, Dearborn, Livonia, Charlotte, Concord, Gastonia, Milwaukee, Waukesha, Warwick, Chicago, Naperville, Arlington Heights IL, Troy, Farmington Hills MI, Antonio, New Braunfels TX, York, Jersey, White Plains, Carmel, Worth, Plano
Areas that saw price declines during the pandemic are expected to make a comeback. Metropolitan areas including Anaheim, Seattle, and Sacramento top the list. In April, prices for single-family homes rose by 2% year-over-year and 1.2% from the previous month, according to CoreLogic's Home Price Index. Below is a list of 51 metropolitan areas expected to see the most home prices increase in the next 12 months, beginning from the highest to the lowest. The CoreLogic HPIFinally, while mortgage rates can be difficult to predict, Hepp believes we have likely peaked for the year.
Persons: Selma, it's, Selma Hepp, Hepp, Louis Organizations: CoreLogic, Irvine CA Metropolitan, Everett WA Metropolitan Division, Arcade, Statistical, Oakland, Berkeley CA Metropolitan, Metropolitan Statistical, Riverside, Jacksonville FL, Vegas, Paradise, Clearwater FL, Newark, Sanford FL, Angeles, Glendale CA Metropolitan, Palm Beach, Boca Raton, Delray Beach FL, Cambridge, Suffolk County NY Metropolitan, Towson, Metropolitan, Fort Lauderdale, Boston, Scottsdale, Scottsdale AZ Metropolitan Statistical, Miami, Kendall FL Metropolitan, Alexandria DC, Bloomington, Franklin TN Metropolitan, Virginia, Newport News, Livonia MI, Gastonia NC, SC Metropolitan, West Allis WI Metropolitan, Philadelphia PA Metropolitan, Kansas City, KS Metropolitan, Providence, Richmond VA Metropolitan, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh PA, Oklahoma City, Cleveland, Elyria, NJ, Columbus OH, Houston, Indianapolis, Arlington TX Metropolitan, Dallas, Irving TX Metropolitan Locations: Selma Hepp, Anaheim, Seattle, Sacramento, West Coast, Metropolitan, Santa Ana, Irvine, Bellevue, Roseville, Hayward, Berkeley, Portland, Vancouver, Hillsboro, San Bernardino, Ontario, Diego, Carlsbad CA, Denver, Aurora, Lakewood, Henderson, Tampa, St, Petersburg, Clearwater, Newark NJ, Orlando, Kissimmee, Sanford, Long, Glendale CA, Palm, Delray Beach, Newton, Framingham, Nassau County, Suffolk, Baltimore, Columbia, Pompano Beach, Deerfield Beach FL, Mesa, Scottsdale AZ, Miami, Kendall, Montgomery County, Bucks County, Chester County, Washington, Arlington, Alexandria, Sandy Springs, Roswell, Minneapolis, Paul, WI, Murfreesboro, Virginia Beach, Norfolk, Detroit, Dearborn, Livonia, Charlotte, Concord, Gastonia, Milwaukee, Waukesha, Warwick, Chicago, Naperville, Arlington Heights IL, Troy, Farmington Hills MI, Antonio, New Braunfels TX, York, Jersey, White Plains, Carmel, Worth, Plano
Production had never exceeded 100 million prior to 2017, though USDA sees the 2024 crop jumping to another new high of 163 million tonnes. Current economics suggest 2024 soybean profitability in Brazil could return to the lower levels of the late 2010s, when the average yearly area expansion was below 3%. Brazilian farmers have been slow to sell the 2023 soy crop amid easing prices, and 2024 may be less exciting. China’s soybean consumption had been rising more than 8% per year in the mid-2010s. Chinese soybean demand: consumption and importsKaren Braun is a market analyst for Reuters.
Persons: Mato, Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S . Department of Agriculture, USDA, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, China, Americas, Brazil, BRAZIL, United States, Argentina, CHINA
That is the lowest initial corn rating since 59% GE in 2019 and below the five-year average of 71%. The timing of initial corn conditions depends on emergence and has spanned May 24 to June 9 in the latest five years. Since crop conditions began in 1986, all but one of the strong U.S. corn yields coincided with initial ratings above 70% GE. Initial U.S. corn conditions and yieldHigher crop ratings have not always led to success. The highest-ever initial corn rating of 81% in 1991 preceded a very poor crop as the critical months of July and August were much too dry.
Persons: Corn, Beans, Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S . Department of, GE, Nebraska, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, U.S, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Nebraska, , Minnesota, North Dakota
Soybeans are the only U.S.-traded grain or oilseed in which funds’ net long has persevered since 2020, though money managers have been bullish soybean meal since late 2021. Most-active CBOT soybeans fell 3% in the week ended May 23, at one point trading at the lowest levels since last July. Money managers that week cut nearly 20,000 contracts from their CBOT soybean net long, which fell to 4,147 futures and options contracts. Managed money net position in CBOT soybean futures and optionsMost-active soybeans have shed more than 12% this year, more than in most years, though they bounced 1% over the last three sessions. Money managers extended their net short in CBOT wheat futures and options to 118,788 contracts from 112,769 a week earlier.
Records date to 2012, when 15% of corn areas were in at least moderate drought by this same week. Percent of U.S. corn in drought, May versus JulyAround the same date in 2014, 2021 and 2022, moderate drought coverage spanned between 20% and 24% of U.S. corn areas. The central Corn Belt, including Iowa and Illinois, was very wet in May 2013 and mid-month corn planting in those states was very slow, though planting was quicker than normal this year. El Nino never formed in 2012, though it did in late 2014, sticking around throughout 2015 and leading into the 2015-16 super El Nino. Strong U.S. corn yields occur more frequently during El Nino versus La Nina, though El Nino does not guarantee that outcome.
Most-active CBOT soybean futures shed 3.6% through May 16, and funds added gross shorts for a sixth consecutive week. That could mean money managers at Friday's close were net short soybean futures and options for the first time since April 2020. They have not held a net short for two or more consecutive weeks since March 2020. Money managers' all-time soybean net short of 168,835 futures and options contracts was set on May 14, 2019. CBOT wheat futures had been rallying mid-month due to uncertainty over the Black Sea grain deal, though Russia on Wednesday agreed to a two-month extension, allowing Ukraine to continue exports by sea.
The Kansas wheat tour and its findings always prompt these questions: How does the tour yield compare with USDA’s May forecast? Since 2005 and including 2023, USDA’s May estimate for Kansas winter wheat yield was lower than the tour yield in all but three years: 2010, 2018 and 2019. USDA's May Kansas wheat yield vs tour yieldBefore 2021, the tour was always held before USDA’s May report, but it now takes place after. Compared with final Kansas winter wheat yields, the tour yields have been streaky. Kansas winter wheat yield: tour versus finalFinal Kansas wheat yield has come in higher than USDA’s May forecast in 11 of the last 15 years.
NAPERVILLE, Illinois, May 17 (Reuters) - Chicago December corn futures on Wednesday traded below $5 per bushel for the first time since 2021, supportive for those who believe new-crop corn has already inked its yearly high. The average price of December corn during February, which represents the insurance guarantee to U.S. corn farmers, is not too impactful for the futures market itself. New-crop corn is already breaking the ranks in terms of downward momentum. Almost three-quarters of the years featured higher new-crop corn prices versus February at some point from July 1, and that happened beyond Oct. 1 half the time. But 2013, which has been compared with 2023 for corn, featured one of the narrowest-ever margins.
WASHINGTON — The Supreme Court on Wednesday refused to block two Illinois laws prohibiting the sale of high-powered guns and high-capacity magazines while challenges to them move forward. Recent shootings, including one at a Texas mall that left eight people dead, have prompted calls for further efforts to address gun violence. The case that reached the Supreme Court was a challenge to a city ordinance in Naperville, Ill., enacted in August and a state law enacted in January. The ordinance prohibited “the commercial sale of assault rifles,” listing 26 categories of weapons, including AK-47 and AR-15 rifles. The state law covered similar weapons along with high-capacity magazines.
Plenty of uncertainty around global wheat production and trade remains, especially in the Black Sea, since 2023-24 grain crops are far from settled. Wheat SU among major exporters in May 2022 was pegged at a 15-year low of 13.5% for 2022-23, expanding to 13.75% by February 2023. This SU trend in major wheat exporting countries is not exclusive to 2022-23. USDA has 2023-24 Ukraine wheat production at 16.5 million tonnes with exports at 10 million, down from 20.9 million and 15 million in 2022-23, respectively. OTHER HOTSPOTSIn top exporter Russia, USDA shows 2023-24 wheat production down 11% from last year's record, though exports are seen edging up 2% to a new high.
The law exempts existing owners, giving them a deadline of Jan. 1, 2024, to register their assault weapons with state police. The case is one of several contesting the state's ban in both federal and state courts. The Supreme Court, with its conservative majority, has expanded gun rights in key rulings since 2008. In a landmark decision last June striking down New York state gun limits, the Supreme Court recognized the right to carry a handgun in public for self-defense. In asking the Supreme Court to halt the ban, the challengers said AR-15s and similar rifles are in common use in the United States and there is no historical analogue to such a ban.
Crop Watch farmers have mostly wrapped up their planting except for in North Dakota, where recent rains have already reduced the producers’ corn acreage plans. The North Dakota producer, located in the east central part of the state, has not yet started field work. This issue does not extend throughout the whole state, but the Crop Watch producer estimates roughly half the state faces his same situation. The North Dakota producer needs several sunny and windy days to prepare the fields, which could be in store. Crop Watch planting dates May 15Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters.
But 29% of U.S. corn areas and 21% of soybean areas are in a drought versus 21% and 12% a year ago, respectively. Some 48% of winter wheat areas are experiencing drought versus 68% a year ago, but 16% of it is currently under exceptional drought versus just 3% a year ago. That is despite decent conditions in soft red wheat states in the east. The Drought Monitor shows 64% of Kansas in extreme or worse drought this week, topped only by a stretch from July 2012 to March 2013 in records back to 2000. The latest Drought Monitor stats in the top corn state are almost identical to the same point in 2021, leading into Iowa’s record corn-yielding season.
New-crop soybeans last printed a January high in 1999, one of three such instances in the last half-century. The last time new-crop corn and soybeans both made their year-of-expiration highs in January was in 1985, though on different days. In the last two decades, June and November have been the most common months for new-crop soybeans’ high, at five apiece. In a highly unusual twist, soybeans also made their yearly low in August 2013.CBOT November soybeans: month of highSOYBEANS VERSUS CORN? However, that phenomenon has not yet been seen for Brazil’s upcoming bumper corn harvest, which will be collected most heavily during June and July.
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