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Big tech is still the hope in a sideways stock market
  + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +5 min
With the S & P 500 down 1% this month, and essentially flat for the quarter, the best you can say is that the overall trend has moved from down in 2022 to mostly sideways in 2023. Lowry, the nation's oldest technical analysis service, has taken to calling the rally in tech "the mega-cap mirage." Lowry noted over the weekend that "core indicators of market health have demonstrated significant deterioration from the early February market high through recent days." Even as the S & P 500 was near a new rally high for the year recently, the S & P Midcap 400 and S & P Smallcap 600 were 12% and 17% below their February 2nd highs last week. Only 46% of S & P 500 stocks are above their 200-day moving averages, hardly a sign of broad market strength.
The continued slide for regional bank stocks after the failure of First Republic last week has created some buying opportunities in the sector, according to Wall Street analysts. "We believe this recent stock reaction is overdone as there is currently no evidence of accelerating deposit outflows. We see accelerating deposit costs, not accelerating deposit outflows, as the most significant headwind for the midcap banks over the next several quarters," Gosalia wrote. Huntington and Webster also rise to the top of the heap for RBC Capital Markets analyst Jon Arfstrom. Both Huntington and Webster are down about 30% for the year, which is better than the SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF (KRE).
The blue-chip FTSE 100 (.FTSE) fell 0.3% after a holiday on Monday for the official coronation of King Charles over the weekend, while the FTSE 250 midcap index (.FTMC) was down 0.7%. "Travel stocks have had a really nice run for the last few days," said Christopher Peters, trading floor manager at Accendo Markets. "From mid-April, we've seen a decline in oil prices. That has an effect on costs for the airlines and travel stocks." Energy stocks (.FTNMX601010) dipped 1.2%, as oil prices relinquished some of the strong gains of the previous two sessions ahead of U.S. inflation data due on Wednesday.
This is the 20th anniversary of the launch of the Invesco S & P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP). The index weighs all 500 stocks in the S & P 500 equally, as opposed to the S & P 500, the modern version of which was launched in 1957 as a market-cap weighted index. "Broad, market cap weighted indexes are the purest form of indexing," Ben Johnson, head of client solutions at Morningstar, told me. With north of $7 trillion indexed to the S & P 500, and getting larger every year, there is an awful lot of passive money at stake. Invesco says that over the last 20 years, an investment in the RSP has outperformed the market cap weight S & P 500: Market cap weighted investing vs. equal-weighting (last 20 years) S & P 500 (SPY) + 553% Equal weight S & P 500 + 667% Source: Invesco What do you own when you own an equal-weight S & P 500?
UBS upgrades Exxon to buy from neutral UBS said in its upgrade of the oil and gas giant that it likes the company's balance sheet. Bank of America reiterates Meta as buy Bank of America says it likes "self-help stocks in an uncertain macro." Bank of America reiterates Nvidia as buy Bank of America raised its price target on the AI beneficiary to $340 per share from $310. Bank of America downgrades CDW to neutral from buy Bank of America downgraded the technology products company after its disappointing earnings report on Tuesday. Wolfe reiterates Amazon as outperform Wolfe says it's standing by its outperform rating on the stock heading into earnings next week. "
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The change applies to the S & P Composite 1500 Index and its components, including the S & P 500 , the world's largest stock benchmark and the one with the widest following. It forces buying from every passive index fund manager whose fund tracks the S & P 500, S & P Midcap 400 or Smallcap 600, boosting the stock price in the short term. Evercore ISI is bullish on the prospect for inclusion in the S & P 500. Alternative asset managers Ares Management and Blackstone have also became eligible for S & P 500 inclusion. "Excluding BX from the S & P 500 has hurt the index's performance... and BX also yields a dividend that is ~2x the average S & P 500 company."
April 17 (Reuters) - Global recruiter PageGroup Plc (PAGE.L) on Monday forecast a near 29% slump in its annual profit and said the challenging conditions it experienced towards the end of 2022 have continued into 2023. PageGroup now expects annual operating profit to be in line with a company-compiled consensus of 140 million pounds ($173.9 million), way below the 196.1 million pounds it reported for fiscal year 2022. High inflation and persistent recession worries have forced many companies to cut jobs or freeze hiring, and prefer temporary hiring over permanent roles in their bid to minimise potential risks. The FTSE midcap (.FTMC) firm also posted a 2.4% decline in gross profit at 262.7 million pounds in constant currency terms for the three months ended March 31, mainly weighed down by performance in the Asia Pacific region. ($1 = 0.8054 pounds)Reporting by Aby Jose Koilparambil in Bengaluru; editing by Uttaresh VenkateshwaranOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
SummarySummary Companies First-quarter gross profit down 2.4% at 262.7 mln poundsQuarterly gross profit in U.S. market declines 15%Sees FY operating profit of 140 mln poundsApril 17 (Reuters) - PageGroup (PAGE.L) on Monday became the latest recruiter to warn of tough conditions in the labour market as it forecast a near 29% slump in 2023 profit, partly hit by weakness in the technology and banking sectors in the United States. PageGroup along with peers Hays and Robert Walters have flagged weakness in the permanent hiring market because employers were turning to interim hires to ride out market uncertainty amid a tough economic outlook. PageGroup's gross profit in permanent recruitment fell 7.2% in the first quarter on constant currency terms, while temporary jobs jumped about 15%. It now expects annual operating profit to be in line with a company-compiled consensus of 140 million pounds ($173.9 million), way below the 196.1 million pounds it reported for fiscal year 2022. The FTSE midcap (.FTMC) firm also posted a 2.4% decline in gross profit at 262.7 million pounds for the three months to March 31.
Infosys drags down Indian shares
  + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( Bharath Rajeswaran | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
BENGALURU, April 17 (Reuters) - Indian shares sank more than 1% on Monday after Infosys tumbled 15% and sparked a selloff in IT stocks following the country's No. 2 IT services exporter's weak results and forecast. The slide comes after the two indexes logged a winning steak for the past nine sessions in a row. The IT index (.NIFTYIT) sank 6.5% and was on track for its biggest one-day loss since March 2020. The Nifty midcap 100 index (.NIFMDCP100) and Nifty smallcap 100 (.NIFSMCP100) were both off about 0.2%.
Next week's market action could be dictated by how well the latest quarterly reports from corporate America are received. Expectations about the immediate earnings outlook have been down for so long, the actual numbers themselves could look like up to investors. Earnings for all financials in the S & P 500 are actually expected to expand in the first quarter by 4.3%. ET: NAHB Housing Market Index (April) Earnings: Charles Schwab, M & T Bank, State Street, J.B. Hunt Transport Tuesday 8:30 a.m. ET: Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speaks on the economic outlook Earnings: AT & T, American Express, D.R.
UBS upgrades Goldman Sachs to buy from neutral UBS said in its upgrade of the banking giant that it's "resilient." "We are upgrading GS to Buy from Neutral as the firm appears well positioned to outperform amidst elevated levels of market volatility." Morgan Stanley upgrades MongoDB to overweight from equal weight Morgan Stanley said in its upgrade of the developer data platform that it has "share gain opportunities." Morgan Stanley names Box a top pick Morgan Stanley named the cloud content management company as a top pick and says it sees more margin upside ahead. Morgan Stanley upgrades Evercore to overweight from equal weight Morgan Stanley said the investment bank has "underappreciated resiliency."
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London's FTSE 100 climbs ahead of Easter break
  + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Sruthi Shankar | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
The FTSE 100 (.FTSE) rose 0.5% and is on course to end the holiday-shortened week about 1% higher, with gains in oil & gas and healthcare stocks offering support. Shell (SHEL.L) rose 1.7% as the energy giant forecast higher liquefied natural gas (LNG) output in the first quarter. The midcap FTSE 250 index (.FTMC) rose 0.2%, with London-listed shares of travel firm TUI jumping 7.2% after sharp losses this week. "The report noted mortgage rates have continued to trend downwards, housing transactions have picked up slightly and the employment market remains robust. We still see challenges ahead as affordability remains under pressure," said Derren Nathan, head of equity research at Hargreaves Lansdown.
The S & P 500, thanks to the outperformance of a small group of technology stocks, enters the second quarter on an upswing. The message is clear: for the moment, the majority of the market returns are being generated by large-cap tech stocks. Back in early February, 75% of the S & P 500 stocks were above their 200-day moving average. Bulls, of course, are hopeful that the banking crisis will be the ultimate blessing in disguise, forcing the Fed to finally slow its rate-hiking campaign, now that it has finally broke something and created a regional banking crisis. "A bullish breakaway hasn't materialized, and the S & P 500 is back in its base," Ari Wald, senior analyst at Oppenheimer, noted over the weekend.
Chief Executive Jason Honeyman told Reuters the company started hastening construction in its social housing programme in October after a demand slump. Honeyman said homes built in the programme would make up more than quarter of overall output in the fiscal year ending on July 31. Bellway, which builds everything from one-bedroom apartments to six-bedroom family homes and luxury penthouses, said there was a moderate improvement in bookings since January. Bellway shares edged up about 1% in morning trade. ($1=0.8121 pounds)Reporting by Aby Jose Koilparambil in Bengaluru; Editing by Sherry Jacob-PhillipsOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
SummarySummary Companies Banks fall as fears of a banking crisis spikeEnergy down tracking lower oil pricesUK Feb retail sales rise unexpectedlyFTSE 100 down 1.4%, FTSE 250 off 1.0%March 24 (Reuters) - London stocks fell on Friday, dragged by energy shares that tracked oil prices lower, while banks extended declines at the end of a turbulent week as fears of a global banking crisis lingered. The blue-chip FTSE 100 (.FTSE) fell 1.4%, extending losses after a near 1% drop on Thursday. British banks (.FTNMX301010) lost 2.7%, falling for a third straight session, joining their European peers in Friday's slide. Energy majors Shell (SHEL.L) and BP (BP.L) fell 2.5% and 2.5%, respectively, dragging the broader energy sector (.FTNMX601010) down 2.5%, as oil prices extended losses on worries about a potential oversupply. Reporting by Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu and Savio D'SouzaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
The FTSE 100 (.FTSE) fell 0.7%, after recording its highest closing level in more than a week on Wednesday. The focus now shifts to the BoE, which is widely expected to also raise its lending rate by 25 bps at 1200 GMT. "It's highly unlikely that the BoE would diverge from other central banks," said Julien Lafargue, chief market strategist at Barclays Private Bank. Ahead of its decision on interest rates, the BoE said in a letter to lawmakers that more sharp moves in asset prices could expose weaknesses in parts of Britain's financial system. Informa (INF.L) dropped 2.7% after Morgan Stanley cut its rating on the events organizer's stock to "equal-weight" from "overweight".
SummarySummary Companies UK inflation still in double-digit territoryReal estate stocks fall on rate-hike concernsBank stocks gain, help cut lossesFed decision awaited on Wednesday, BoE on ThursdayFTSE 100 down 0.2%, FTSE 250 off 0.3%March 22 (Reuters) - London's exporter-heavy FTSE 100 fell on Wednesday, with real estate stocks leading the retreat, as hotter-than-expected UK inflation data raised fears of more interest rate hikes and boosted the pound. The blue-chip FTSE 100 index (.FTSE) fell 0.2% after a near 2% bounce on Tuesday, with investors also waiting for the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision later in the day. The pound rose sharply against the dollar after Britain's consumer price index (CPI) inflation unexpectedly rose to 10.4% in February. Real estate stocks fell (.FTUB3510) 2.2%, with British Land Company (BLND.L) down 4.2% after Morgan Stanley reduced its price target. ,Helping cut losses were banking stocks (.FTNMX301010), which gained 0.9% as fears of a crises appeared to ease.
UK's blue-chip FTSE 100 (.FTSE) gained 0.4%, rebounding from its steepest fall in over a year on Wednesday. British banks (.FTNMX301010) gained 1.8%, after falling 5.6% in the previous session. Rentokil Initial (RTO.L) jumped 6.1% to the top of the FTSE 100 after the pest control services provider lifted its medium-term outlook after posting a better-than-expected annual profit. The more domestically-focussed FTSE 250 midcap index (.FTMC) were subdued, though asset manager Bridgepoint Group (BPTB.L) rose 2.9% after reporting a higher revenue for 2022. Reporting by Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru; Editing by Savio D'Souza and Uttaresh VenkateshwaranOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
"Despite continuing global instability, the OBR report today that inflation in the UK will fall from 10.7% in the final quarter of last year to 2.9% by the end of 2023." MARKET REACTION:STOCKS: The FTSE 100 (.FTSE) was down 3%, under pressure from a rout in global bank stocks, while the domestic-focussed midcap index (.FTMC) fell 2.5%. MONEY MARKETS: UK bond yields pared some of their daily declines, with the 10-year yield last down 19 basis points at roughly 3.30%, compared with a session low of 3.289% when Hunt began talking. EDWARD PARK, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, BROOKS MACDONALD, LONDON:"I would view this very much as a budget for the bond market." "When the dust settles, international investors will be constructive around the type of budget we've had today, which suggests a calmer approach to managing the UK.
SummarySummary Companies Prudential at the bottom of FTSE 100Precious metal miners down over 2%Spring budget in sightFTSE 100 down 1.4%, FTSE 250 off 1.3%March 15 (Reuters) - London stocks fell on Wednesday as Prudential touched the bottom of the FTSE 100 index after its annual results, with investors awaiting the UK spring budget due later in the day. The blue-chip FTSE 100 (.FTSE) was down 1.4% after jumping more than 1% on Tuesday. Prudential (PRU.L) fell 6.3% despite the Asia-focused insurer reporting an 8% jump in full-year year profit. The wider life insurance index (.FTNMX303010) fell 4.2%, hitting a near three-month low. Investors would be keenly awaiting the UK's spring budget, with Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt due to make a budget speech to parliament at around 1230 GMT.
SummarySummary Companies HSBC falls after taking over SVB's UK armBritish American Tobacco down after JPM downgradeBank sector index hits over two-month lowFTSE 100 down 2.4%, FTSE 250 off 2.9%March 13 (Reuters) - UK's FTSE 100 fell on Monday, with banks extending losses as shock waves continue to reverberate through financial markets after U.S. regulators closed Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). The blue-chip FTSE 100 (.FTSE) lost 2.4%, falling to an over two month low. UK banks (.FTNMX301010) slid 4.3%, hitting an over two-month low and extending last week's declines of over 6%. The focus is now shifting to UK's spring budget due to be unveiled later in the day. Reporting by Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips and Dhanya Ann ThoppilOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Almost 400 financial advisors surveyed at Bank of America's Merrill Lynch unit said they favor bonds and cash the most for investment portfolios, with stocks at a "distant third," a report out Wednesday said. Bonds as a percentage of portfolios climbed to 27% when the survey was taken in late January and early February, up from 24% a year earlier. The average allocation to cash climbed to 10% from 7% a year ago, while stocks fell to 57% from 62%. With the surplus cash that's being generated in portfolios, 26% of advisors plan to buy stocks, down from 42% last year. Meanwhile, 29% intend to put the money into bonds and 30% "are happy to remain in cash."
FTSE 100 opens lower as ex-dividend trading weighs on HSBC
  + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
SummarySummary Companies FTSE 100 down 0.3%, FTSE 250 off 0.3%March 2 (Reuters) - UK's FTSE 100 opened lower on Thursday as ex-dividend trading impacted shares of HSBC, although upbeat earnings from Ireland's CRH and jets and auto parts supplier Melrose helped cap losses. The blue-chip FTSE 100 (.FTSE) lost 0.3% by 0821 GMT, while the domestically-focused FTSE 250 midcap index (.FTMC) fell 0.3%. Shares of HSBC (HSBA.L) fell 3.5% in early trading while the broader banking index (.FTNMX301010) dropped 2.3%. Flutter (FLTRF.L) dropped 4.9% after the betting company reported full-year core profit at the lower end of its forecast range. Melrose Industries (MRON.L) posted a jump in profit for the year ended Dec. 31, lifting shares 4.2% higher.
And it's little surprise the International Monetary Fund forecast Britain would be the only economy of the G7 to contract this year. But certainly the potential for improved trade relations with the UK's biggest trading partner is clear. Unicredit this month cited estimates that the UK economy would underperform by 5-7% over 10 years if it remains outside the EU single market and customs union. It may even have been a key spur to this week's breakthrough given the frayed geopolitical backdrop. President Joe Biden has long insisted there would be no progress on a U.S. deal with Britain until the Northern Irish conundrum was resolved.
At its Halloween party in 2015, the adtech startup MediaMath seemed on the brink of greatness. The machine-learning revolution that took over the financial industry was finally happening in marketing, and many industry insiders considered MediaMath to be the hottest adtech company of the time. "We never came close to consummating such a deal with MediaMath nor entertained the purported valuation," said a representative for Singtel. The Trade Desk, the most comparable independent DSP company to MediaMath, was riding high after its 2016 initial public offering. The quasi-equity agreement was structured to protect Searchlight if MediaMath didn't perform to certain quotas or if things went south financially.
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