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☆ Investors should sell the S&P 500 above this key level as earnings defy expectations but 'economic ambiguity' persists, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Sell the S&P 500 when it rises above 4,200, Bank of America's chief stock strategist said Friday. "We stay bearish" as the US economy looks set to end 2023 with stress in the labor market and weak earnings. The S&P 500 was edging toward logging a 20% gain from its bear-market low. He reiterated his call to sell the S&P 500 above 4,200 — less than 0.1% from the current level — in part as stocks are pricing in a decline of "just" 4% in per-share corporate earnings. It said 76% of S&P 500 companies that posted results had outstripped Wall Street's targets.

☆ Bank of America's top global strategist warns there's 'plenty of room for more S&P 500 downside' as 80% of recessions since 1933 have torpedoed stocks by 20% after they started
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-15 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Hartnett says S&P 500 EPS will fall by 16% in 2023, compared to the market's view of -4%. Some argue that stocks have already priced in a recession, having fallen 20% in 2022 (though the S&P 500 has rallied 8% year-to-date). He continued: "Plenty of room for more S&P 500 downside…since 1929, 2/3 of the S&P 500 peak-to-trough drawdowns have occurred during, not before, US recessions." So whether we have an economic recession or not it isn't as important as the earnings recession," he said. Most strategists see a more mild decline in store for stocks, and most — including Wilson — see the S&P 500 finishing the year somewhere near 4,000.

☆ Here are 6 bullish surprises that could power the stock market through the rest of this year, according to Bank of America
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

There are six potential bull market surprises that could drive stocks higher, according to Bank of America. The bank highlighted the deflationary impact of ChatGPT and a potential end to the Russia-Ukraine war. "Bearish sentiment + $5 trillion of cash [is] still the 'best friends forever' for risk assets, especially stocks," Hartnett said. These are the six bullish surprises that could fuel more upside in the stock market this year, according to BofA. If any of the surprises play out, it could help the economy avoid a recession or see a soft landing rather than a hard landing, according to Hartnett, ultimately boosting the stock market higher.

The ECB's systemic risk indicator for the United States, for example, has returned to its lowest level in a year. The near $400 billion that dashed for money funds after the Lehman Brothers bust in late 2008 - despite credit fears in some of those funds - had completely retreated by early 2010. The relative interest rate attraction of bills and repos after the steepest Fed rate rises in 40 years should make this year's flows far stickier - unless or until the Fed were to embark on some dramatic rate easing. Either way, there's now no shortage of savings in cash if or when the lights go green. by Mike Dolan, Twitter: @reutersMikeD; Added chart from Andy Bruce; Editing by Sam HolmesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Bank of America gives its best investing plays for the start of a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Investors need to prepare as signs build that a recession is coming, according to Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett. The "drumbeat of recession [is] getting ever louder," the investment strategist said in his weekly "Flow Show" note that looks at where money is moving. Hartnett's "best plays for start of recession" include Treasury bills, which he said outperform until the Federal Reserve starts cutting rates. In this case, Hartnett likes that play in anticipation that the Federal Reserve likely will have to begin easing as unemployment rises later in the year. And, of course, nothing lasts forever, so Hartnett advises investors to prepare a "shopping list" of things to buy when conditions change.

☆ Bank of America shares 12 charts that show that the economy is about to enter a full-blown recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

There are growing signs the US economy is about to enter a full-blown recession, said Bank of America. The bank cited worrying signs in manufacturing and the jobs market, and said investors aren't paying attention to the risks. But so far, no recession has materialized as the jobs market and consumer spending have remained fairly resilient. Model is driven by Asian exports, global PMIs, China financial conditions, US yield curve," BofA said. Steepening yield curve often precedes a recessionBank of America"US Treasury 2-year/10-year yield curve flattens and inverts in anticipation of recession.

☆ Bank of America lists its top stock picks for the second quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Pia Singh | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

With the start of the second quarter, Bank of America has a new list of short-term ideas for investors seeking clarity amid ongoing market volatility. The bank expects its Medicare Advantage plans to comprise two-thirds of the company's revenue growth for this year. The bank assigned a $650 price target on UnitedHealth, suggesting the stock could gain more than 31% from Tuesday's close. The bank expects even more gains for the stock, with its 12-month price target of $115 per share implying 11% upside from Tuesday's close of $103.58. Analysts at the bank aren't as bullish on CarMax Bank of America expects CarMax shares to shed 37% to its $40 per share price target.

☆ The stock market rally is over as commercial real estate risks begin to compound, JPMorgan's chief market strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The stock market rally is nearing its end as risks related to commercial real estate begin to rise, according to JPMorgan. The bank believes the highs for the stock market have been made in 2023, with further downside ahead. "Commercial real estate stresses appear to be compounding, amplified by banking shocks that could complicate their debt roll," Kolanovic warned. Kolanovic isn't the only one on Wall Street that's concerned about the sky-high debt pile that's coming due for commercial real estate. "Commercial real estate [is] widely seen as next shoe to drop as lending standards for CRE loans to tighten further," Bank of America's Michael Hartnett said last week.

☆ A credit crunch could worsen the bank turmoil and commercial real estate could be next domino to fall
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Odds are, commercial real estate is the next shoe to drop for the banking sector after this month's unrest. "Commercial real estate [is] widely seen as next shoe to drop as lending standards for CRE loans to tighten further," BofA's Michael Hartnett said. Regional banks have enormous exposure to commercial real estate loans. But this time around, it is commercial rather than residential real estate that may be in trouble. Are you worried about the impact of commercial real estate on the banking sector and the economy?

☆ Commercial real estate is the next shoe to drop for regional banks and the stock market
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-25 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Commercial real estate is probably the next pain point for regional banks and the stock market, according to BofA. The bank noted that US regional banks account for 68% of all commercial real estate loans. The weakness in commercial real estate is evidenced in current market prices for stocks and debt tied to the sector. This is a perfect storm for regional banks because they have so much exposure to commercial real estate loans. According to Bank of America, US regional banks account for 68% of commercial real estate loans, much more than their mega-cap banking peers.

☆ BofA's Hartnett sees commercial real estate as the 'next shoe to drop'
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Commercial real estate could be the next danger spot in the wobbly U.S. financial sector, according to Bank of America. One warning sign: Spreads for commercial mortgage-backed securities are at their widest compared with Treasurys since May 2020, said investment strategist Michael Hartnett. "CRE widely seen as next shoe to drop as lending standards for CRE loans to tighten further," Hartnett wrote in his weekly "Flow Show" report of where market money is gravitating. The last Federal Reserve Senior Loan Office Opinion Survey , in January, noted "significant net shares of banks" that reported tightening lending standards for commercial loans. The Bank Term Funding Program reported $53.7 billion in loans over the past month , while the discount window saw $110.2 billion.

☆ Bank of America says the stock market's lows will be tested
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( John Melloy | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

A notable Bank of America strategist said investors should fade any rebound in stocks off the government's efforts to backstop the banking system this week, as the S & P 500 's lows from last October will likely be revisited. "Stock lows to be tested one last time (in the) coming months," wrote Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America. After tumbling into a bear market, the S & P 500 is up 12% from its low last October. The emerging bank crisis this month stemming from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank has put investors on edge before a key Federal Reserve decision on interest rates next week. .SPX 6M mountain S & P 500, 6 months "Banking crises are followed by tighter lending standards and lower risk appetite," wrote Hartnett.

☆ 2 top Wall Street strategists are warning that stocks are susceptible to more declines in March as investors anticipate weaker earnings and the Fed hurls the economy into recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-11 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Wilson sees a deterioration in earnings expectations developing in March. Two of Wall Street's most widely-followed strategist are warning that the month of March could see the unraveling of the stock market. For Wilson's part, he sees forward earnings expectations continuing to deteriorate despite recent optimism, and thinks that investors will start getting ahead of this turn sometime this month. Stocks tend to figure it out a month early and trade lower and this cycle has illustrated that pattern perfectly. Morgan StanleyWilson has also pointed out in recent notes that stocks remain historically overvalued relative to where bond yields are.

☆ The next bull market in stocks won't kick off until the Fed is forced to bail out the US government, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The next bull market in stocks won't happen until the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates to bail out the US government, according to Bank of America. BofA said that high rates will result in a staggering increase in interest payments on America's $31 trillion debt. The bank said US government debt is expected to soar by more than $21 trillion over the next 10 years. That's $5.2 billion every single day, or $218 million every single hour, Bank of America's Michael Hartnett said in a Friday note. "And that's when the next great bull market in risk begins," Hartnett said.

☆ There's a new most crowded trade on Wall Street — and it's not in the U.S.
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( John Melloy | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The most crowded trade on Wall Street is "long China equities," according to the latest Bank of America Fund manager survey. Twenty-one percent of respondents to the February survey said that was the investment with the most enthusiasm... perhaps too much. Still, the "most crowded" trades in the survey, which is among the most followed on Wall Street, can stay that way for long stretches. Long China displaces "long U.S. dollar," which was the most crowded trade for the prior seven months in the survey. China equities traded in the U.S. were under pressure for a number of reasons, including the country's Covid lockdowns, as well as tighter scrutiny of its homegrown internet businesses.

☆ Wall Street's biggest firms are warning their clients not to trust the stock market rally with trouble still on the way for the US economy and corporate earnings
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Stocks have responded positively, with the S&P 500 rising as much as 9.3% since the start of the year. "An improvement in US and global macro data has lifted the S&P 500 by 8% YTD and leads us to lift our 3-month S&P 500 target to 4000 (from 3600). Morgan StanleyMike Wilson, the bank's chief US equity strategist, has been warning of downside in the S&P 500 to fall for weeks now. In other words, this earnings recession is not priced, in our view." Wilson had the most accurate price target for the S&P 500 in 2022 among major Wall Street Strategists.

☆ A further stock rally will be 'like bathing in lava' for market bears, BofA says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-27 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Investors betting against the stock market have taken their lumps in 2023 and could be in for more trouble ahead, according to Bank of America. In his weekly note examining the flow of money through financial markets, Bank of America chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett noted how tough it's been for the bears. "Another 3-5% [gain] here will feel like bathing in lava if you're a bear," Hartnett wrote in the "Heard on the Street" section of his "Flow Show" report. "After that we sell as we [are] now close to [the] moment where stock gains start dragging yields higher," Hartnett wrote. However, Hartnett noted that the current trend may not last.

☆ Emerging markets are a top investing trend for 2023. Here's the best way to take advantage
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( Carmen Reinicke | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The iShares MSCI emerging market Asia exchange traded fund is up 11% and the iShares core MSCI emerging markets ETF is up more than 10% since the year began. For Kotler, it's emerging market bonds, where his firm has an overweight rating as opposed to a neutral rating on equities. One other factor that should help emerging market countries outperform in 2023 is the winding down of the strength of the U.S. dollar. Some top emerging market bond funds include the iShares JP Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF , the Vanguard Emerging Markets Government Bond ETF and the VanEck JP Morgan EM Local Currency Bond ETF. Of course, the downside to large emerging market funds is that they tend to be most heavily weighted to China, as it's the largest emerging market country.

☆ Investors are stampeding into boring old bonds to start the year
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-21 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Yet boring old bonds have just about kept pace, as investors rush to lock in healthy-seeming yields after one of the worst years ever for fixed-income returns. The Federal Reserve's historically aggressive tightening campaign last year gouged debt portfolios but quickly rebuilt the supply of safe yield on offer for today's buyers. I made the case for bonds' value from this perspective in a column here three months ago , just as Treasury yields were peaking. The good news is that "real yields," meaning yields above the market's implied outlook for inflation, remain positive. The American Association of Individual Investors' monthly asset allocation survey for December showed bonds at 14.3%, below the survey's long-term average of 16%.

☆ The stock market is about to be flipped upside down as inflation rebounds ahead of an upcoming recession, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The stock market is about to be flipped upside down as inflation rebounds ahead of an upcoming recession, according to Bank of America. "Investment conclusion is super-trend of inflation assets over deflation assets remains in its infancy," he said. In other words, investors should own the new leadership assets like commodities and non-US stocks, according to BofA. The mega-cap tech trade that has dominated markets since the Great Recession will underperform in the years ahead, Hartnett warned. Investors should also own small-cap stocks over their large-cap peers, and value stocks over growth stocks, according to the note.

☆ Recession fears have peaked, which historically has been a great sign for stocks, BofA survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Professional investors are growing less pessimistic about the economy, which could mean good things for stocks. "Prior peaks in recession fear were big turning points in asset prices," wrote Michael Hartnett, Bank of America's chief investment strategist. In fact, a net 50% of respondents to the BofA survey say they see a slowing global economy over the next 12 months. That, too, is a potentially good sign for markets, as it represents an improvement from the peak of economic fears. "As with 'recession fear' ... asset prices have inflected higher whenever monetary policy was seen as restrictive in the past 20 years."

☆ Investors could find better stock market returns outside the U.S. in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-11 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

With the dollar weakening, it's time for U.S. investors to get more serious about going abroad for stock market gains. Europe, China, Japan, Asia are actually going to move from losers to winners," he said. The iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI), iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) and KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) are invested in shares of Chinese companies. Chinese stocks make up 33% of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) represents that index.

☆ Did the market already show its hand in the first week of 2023? What we've learned so far
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-07 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

Recall that at the start of last year, the popular bet was for a smooth and painless rotation from expensive growth stocks to financials and cyclicals. It didn't last: The S & P financial sector trounced utilities by seven percentage points in just the first week of 2022. Yet the Nasdaq 100 's premium to the overall S & P 500 remains at 25% — higher than at any point in the decade before the Covid pandemic hit. And the broader tape, as measured by the equal-weighted S & P 500, continues to act better than the top-heavy headline index. This egalitarian basket, buyable via the Invesco S & P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) , is up 16% from the autumn low, is down less than 12% from its record high and has broken to a new cycle high against the traditional S & P 500.

☆ Bank of America has 10 investing ideas on how to make it through the year ahead
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Bank of America strategists see risks of a Federal Reserve policy mistake in 2023 that could generate a "hard landing" for an economy trying to fight through elevated inflation. The bank's investing team has come up with 10 moves that investors can make to protect themselves against challenging conditions. Part of that trade is also to go long emerging market assets, which have been hurt by the stronger greenback. Specifically, the bank recommends emerging market distressed bonds, the Korean won currency, the reopening in China and the Mexican peso. Bank of America has a 4,000 price target on the S & P 500 for 2023, implying just a 2.7% gain from Thursday's close.

☆ The 'pain trade' is for stocks to rally because investors are so bearish, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-13 | by ( Jesse Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

A big rebound for the stock market could prove unwelcome news to many professional investors, according to Bank of America. "We say Jan/Feb 'pain trade' is up for bond yields & risk assets. ... [fund manager survey] investors say best performing asset in '23 to be government bonds & most overweight bonds vs stocks since Apr'09," the note said. While stocks are well off their lows of the year, investors appeared to turn bearish again in recent weeks. There were some signs in the survey that investors were starting to become less bearish, according to Bank of America.

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