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☆ The stock market's strong 2023 performance comes down to just 5 massive companies
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Anyway, this lopsided distribution is exactly what's showing up in the stock market right now. The S&P 500 has climbed about 9.2% this year, but just five stocks are powering most of that gain in an even more extreme rendition of the Pareto distribution. In previous streaks of strong outperformance of five months or more by supersized companies, he pointed out that the S&P 500 has averaged returns of 6.7% in the subsequent six months. "[P]utting mega caps aside, we found that narrow market breadth in general does not represent a bad omen for S&P 500 performance despite the contrary narrative being pushed by many investors," Belski added. What's your outlook for the rest of the stock market this year, not including mega-caps?

Persons: Phil Rosen, ChatGPT, Tim Cook, Jerod Harris, Brian Belski, Belski, Elon Musk, Jonathan Ernst, Redfin, Larry Pitkowsky, Bitcoin, Max Adams, Nathan Rennolds Organizations: Apple, Getty, Nvidia, Microsoft, BMO, Reuters, Dell Technologies, Broadcom, Bank of America Locations: Beijing, China, United States, New York, London

☆ Nvidia is the clear winner in the AI race. Its stock isn't the only reason why.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Last week I asked you all a question in the newsletter — Do you own Nvidia stock? One of you even told me you first bought the stock when Nvidia was $16(!) Nvidia is the clear winner in the AI arms race so far. A secretive hedge fund has likely notched a $5 billion gain on Nvidia stock this year. Shares of the company hovered near their biggest single-day spike ever, and the chipmaker credited AI for its upbeat quarterly outlook.

☆ A debt-ceiling deal may be close but the crisis likely isn't solved for good. Here's what would happen if the US actually defaulted on its debt.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-27 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

So the Treasury market remains intact in this scenario? JL: The broader US economy will suffer, the stock market will suffer, there will be higher unemployment. So just because the Treasury market ends up doing fine does not mean good news for the US economy. If you think the stock market isn't signaling there's a recession looming, David Rosenberg says otherwise. The AI hype gripping the stock market will resemble a mini dot-com bubble, according to UBS's Art Cashin.

☆ Why ChatGPT could spark a new bull market
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Phil Rosen here, still poking around OpenAI's new ChatGPT iPhone app. The rise of ChatGPT and subsequent AI boom could solidify the recent strength in stocks as a new bull market, according to market veteran Ed Yardeni. In a recent note, the strategist said equities' strong start to the year isn't just a bear market rally, but that it indeed marks a new bull regime. If the Fed mistakenly pauses and then resumes hiking as inflation persists, the music could stop for high flying AI stocks. Mega-cap tech stocks are "overbought" and their rally could stall out soon.

☆ This investor holds $74 million in Tesla stock. Here's why he's bullish on the future of Elon Musk's EV company.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-20 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Phil Rosen here — today I'm excited to share my conversation with a high-profile Tesla shareholder who recently campaigned for a board seat at Elon Musk's company. Twitter CEO Elon Musk appearing at a 2022 Tesla event. Suzanne Cordeiro/AFP via Getty ImagesRoss Gerber is the cofounder and CEO of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management, and holds 420,000 shares of Tesla stock, or about $74 million based on Tesla's current stock price. RG: You gotta own Tesla in your portfolio with Elon re-focused on Tesla. The strength of the US consumer is at risk as 43 million borrowers are set to resume student loan payments.

☆ The biggest home buyers in America are now selling more property than they're buying
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Commercial property headwinds aside, today we're looking at the residential housing market, which is undergoing its own shifts, but not exactly in the same direction. Tell someone that the housing market is so unfavorable right now that the biggest home buyers in the country are actually net sellers now. American Homes 4 Rent, for example, bought 312 single-family homes and sold 666 to start the year. Similarly, Invitation Homes, the largest owner of single-family rentals in the US, bought 194 homes and sold 297 in the first quarter of 2o23. Naturally, the housing market has slowed down for everyday Americans, too, given the steep mortgage rates and lack of affordability.

☆ Investors have turned away from a key part of the stock market. Here's why.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., October 23, 2018. US stock futures rise early Thursday, as investors await the weekly jobless claims report to measure the strength of the labor market. It revealed just a week ago that it already holds $1.5 billion of the world's most popular token. Here are the five bank stocks to bet on now. The tech giant's stock has rallied on its AI efforts, and it surpassed the key threshold for the first time since May 2022.

☆ A bright spot in the economy is at risk as 30 million Americans face student loan payments for the first time since the pandemic
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

More than 43 million Americans together owe $1.6 trillion in student loans. That additional load could weigh on consumer spending, and eventually increase delinquencies on other payments like credit cards and personal loans, strategists said. "We view the resumption of student loan debt payments as an incremental headwind for borrowers and consumer finance companies," BofA said. This, in other words, means the odds of the hotly-anticipated recession are about to go up as consumers divert cash back to student loan payments. Do you have student loans?

☆ Dow surges 400 points as Biden and lawmakers inch closer to a debt ceiling deal
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Max Adams | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks jumped Wednesday as lawmakers made progress on debt ceiling negotiations. President Biden and members of Congress are getting closer on a deal after weeks of deadlock. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. "I'm confident we'll get the agreement on the budget, that America will not default on its debt," Biden said on Wednesday morning. While an actual default was widely thought to be unlikely, the possibility of such a scenario has weighed on markets in recent weeks.

☆ The AI boom shakes up stocks, disrupts tech, and could be on the brink of its 'iPhone' moment
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Over the last several months, I've turned to ChatGPT for research, book summaries, and even pasta recipes. It was only in March that Bank of America strategists declared that AI was on the brink of its "iPhone moment," and that it was about to change the world forever. In the stretches he's referring to, stocks appreciated 15% on average, and inflation's also declined, something that would be welcome news for the Fed right now. The giant's quarterly iPhone sales slowed last quarter, and shareholders may have to brace for another snag. Apple's "base business is stagnating and its high-margin apps platform could be disintermediated by ChatGPT plugins," Wood said.

☆ Elon Musk is giving Tesla shareholders reason for bullishness after his big Twitter announcement
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Wedbush maintained its outperform rating for Tesla, and shared a 12-month price target of $215, or about 27% higher than the current share price. The long wait times for vehicles, according to Piper Sandler, is a bullish sign because it means demand is robust. "The answer is complex, because wait times don't solely reflect consumers' appetite for buying Teslas vs. other cars." In effect, the lengthy wait times should be "interpreted favorably," in Potter's view. Piper Sandler's price target for Tesla is $280 a share, or more than 65% higher from current levels.

☆ Timing the market isn't easy during a debt-ceiling showdown. Investors should stick to this strategy instead.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-13 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) Spencer Platt/Getty ImagesMark Hamrick is senior economic analyst for Bankrate. Phil Rosen: How should investors be positioning themselves as the debt-ceiling fiasco drags on, and a potential default nears? If making a play around the debt ceiling is a no-go in your view, what should investors opt for instead? Homeowners are "quiet quitting" as low inventory and high mortgage rates keep a key market participant sidelined. That has a dual impact: each owner that postpones looking for a new house also marks one less seller on the market.

☆ When Jamie Dimon speaks, Wall Street listens - and he just warned of catastrophe
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-12 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

But on Thursday, the man with the most gravitas on Wall Street shared his take on the potentially catastrophic scenario that's just weeks away. Everyone pays attention when Jamie Dimon speaks. In an interview with Bloomberg, Dimon said he's put together a "war room" at JPMorgan to plan for contingencies around a potential US default. While Dimon doesn't anticipate the country will actually see its first-ever default, he acknowledged the clock is running down. "Markets will get volatile, maybe the stock market will go down, the Treasury markets will have their own problems."

☆ The $31 trillion debt-ceiling fiasco could punish markets and it's complicating an already complex economic outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

In any case, one outcome that many hold with a high degree of certainty is that financial markets are going to feel pain if the "x-date" bell tolls. This $31 trillion debt ceiling argument "comes at the worst possible time," according to Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee. "Many past instances of debt limit standoffs have been resolved without significant market fallout," the strategists wrote in a recent note. That's according to LPL chief global strategist Quincy Krosby — she says it boils down to these three reasons. With recession risks climbing, Bank of America analysts slashed their 2023 outlook for oil prices.

☆ Quiet quitting hits the housing market: Tight inventory and still-high mortgage rates keep would-be buyers sidelined
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Today we're talking housing — but before we get to that, the big thing to watch today is President Joe Biden's meeting with congressional leaders. Joe Raedle/Getty ImagesThe housing market seems to be taking a page from the labor market's playbook right now. Daryl Fairweather, Redfin's chief economist took to Twitter last week to describe the sluggish sector:"Homeowners are quiet quitting the housing market." In effect, more and more homeowners are choosing to stay put with their low mortgage rates locked in, rather than trying to finance a new home at rates that are hovering around 20-year highs. That's due mostly to high rates causing homes to sit on the market longer than usual, which leads to accumulating inventory.

☆ Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway just hosted its legendary annual investor weekend. Here's what to know.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Before we get to the news, we've got a dispatch from Theron — our in-house Warren Buffett expert — on the legendary conference. That's how Todd Finkle, the author of a new biography on Buffett, described the investor's yearly bash. There were also investment panels, cocktail parties, steak dinners, fun runs, and shopping events during the weekend. The stock market could become "untouchable" if the bank crisis keeps spiraling. Four of the world's top investors agree on the biggest risks that will cause the next recession.

☆ Bitcoin could rally 40% by the end of the year, according to a top blockchain founder
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-06 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

A pile of Bitcoin slugs sit in a box ready to be minted on April 26, 2013 in Sandy, Utah. And bitcoin is front-running this scenario, pointing to a future that is effectively a return to relatively low rates. A big reason why bitcoin has performed so well was that it was just really oversold during the collapse of FTX. In such a scenario, all assets would have a correlation of one with each other, including bitcoin and even gold. Big gold buyers like HSBC and JPMorgan have shunned business with Moscow — leaving billions of dollars worth of gold in need of new landing spots.

☆ The top commentators in markets say the bank crisis isn't anywhere close to over.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Today we're looking at what some of Wall Street's top investors and commentators say has to happen to curb the banking tumult. The shuttered bank had disclosed in its first-quarter earnings report that customers pulled over $100 billion of deposits in three-months. But even if the regulator did insure more money, former FDIC chair Jelena McWilliams said Thursday a move like that would only cost banks' customers more. A stock market portfolio created by ChatGPT is outperforming the top UK investment funds. Stock market investors should keep an eye out for five key indicators with volatility set to ramp up through the end of the year.

☆ Elite investors and fund managers at the legendary Milken conference warn of a recession and credit crunch
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Elite money managers overseeing trillions of dollars convened at the 2023 Milken Global Conference in Los Angeles this week. The consensus was clear: they think markets are mispositioned for a scenario where the central bank keeps rates higher for longer. "As our chief economist likes to say," Hunt said, "at higher rates, bodies will continue to float to the top over the course of the summer." And with yet another Fed rate hike officially in the books, financial conditions are only going to get tighter and more companies could be caught off-guard. On Wednesday, West Texas crude dropped more than 4.4%, the steep declines coming the same day as the Fed's rate hike.

☆ The Fed could deliver the final rate hike of a historically aggressive cycle today. Here's what to know.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

All eyes are on the Fed today as officials ready their decision on what could be the final rate hike of the cycle. We'll hear from central bank chief Jerome Powell today at 2 p.m. The last time the fed funds rate hit that level was during the housing boom in 2006, in the run up to the 2008 crisis. Broadly, markets are acting as if today's potential rate hike will be the final one of the Fed's lengthy, aggressive cycle that's brought so far nine consecutive raises, the last of which was a 25 basis-point move in February. "The market is telling you, in terms of forward yield curves, that they expect the Fed to make a mistake."

☆ Are we in a recession? Elon Musk says the pile of failed banks proves it.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

As for today, let's see what Elon Musk and Larry Summers have to say about the state of the economy. In any case, ex-Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said recession odds for the next year are now sitting at 70%. These six factors suggest the stock market bottomed last October. Morgan Stanley's top equity strategist Mike Wilson thinks investors are banking too hard on a potential Fed rate cut this year. That discrepancy could set the stock market up for a sell-off, in his view.

☆ Russia’s battered wartime economy is still chugging along as it taps its wealth fund, raises taxes, and ramps up imports
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Shares of First Republic dropped more than 40% in pre-market trading today, while JPMorgan stock ticked 2.9% higher. Let's check in on Russia's wartime economy. To the surprise of many forecasters, Russia's economy has held up better than expected as it carries on into the second year of its war on Ukraine. And leaked documents, first reported by the Washington Post, suggest that Russia can fund its war for at least another year. Specifically, US intelligence says Moscow can rely on its sovereign wealth fund to help pay for its war efforts, as well as higher corporate taxes and ramped-up imports.

☆ De-dollarization and global reserves dominance, explained by a top currency economist and the inventor of the 'dollar smile' theory
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-29 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Stephen Jen, CEO of Eurizon SLJ Eurizon SLJStephen Jen is a leading economist, the cofounder and CEO of Eurizon SLJ, and inventor of the "dollar smile" theory. Phil Rosen: You pointed out recently that the dollar saw a steep erosion in 2022 as a global reserve currency. More likely, we will evolve from a unipolar reserve currency world to a multi-polar world. Here's what he said on a potential "tripolar" reserve currency setup if the dollar loses dominance. And here are the top stories from markets this week:Lauren Simmons, a trader at the New York Stock Exchange.

☆ These indicators tell us the housing market is hitting the brakes
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Before we rush into the weekend, let's check in with the slowing pace of the housing market, and what that means for the rest of the year's outlook. Another sign pointing to a softer housing market is lumber. But that's going to reverse in the decade ahead as Boomers age out of the housing market and post-Millennial generations shrink. What are you seeing in the housing market in your part of the country? In other news:A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., March 9, 2020.

☆ A US recession looks more and more unavoidable as key parts of the economy slow to a crawl
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

For many months now, I've been having conversations and writing about economic indicators that all point to a recession. The US is in the midst of a "freight recession," meaning there's fewer trucks delivering goods around the country. In a call last week, JB Hunt reported a bad earnings miss, and executives said a recovery for trucking looks uncertain. Outside the trucking sector, the classic recession indicators are blaring, too:The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index just dipped for the 12th consecutive month. The New York Fed's Recession Probabilities Model puts the odds of a downturn at 57%, the highest mark since 1982.

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