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☆ Watch these warning signs for a potential peak in the stock market's long-term bull rally, NDR says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-27 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The secular bull market, which began in 2009, is in a mature stage according to NDR's Tim Hayes. "With the secular bull mature, we're watching out for signs that it may be at risk," he said. AdvertisementWith the S&P 500 in its 15th year of a secular bull market that started in 2009, Ned Davis Research says investors should watch for warning signs of a potential peak. The first warning sign of a near-term peak in the stock market is worsening breadth among the underlying issues of the US stock market. And a rebound in inflation, coupled with rising interest rates, would be an unwelcome warning sign for the current bull rally in stocks.

Persons: Ned Davis, Tim Hayes, —, Hayes Organizations: Ned Davis Research, Service, NDR

☆ Stock market today: US indexes gain after soft inflation report supports more rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-27 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks rose after cool inflation data suggested more room for Federal Reserve rate cuts. The personal consumption expenditures price index increased 0.1% in August, matching estimates. AdvertisementUS stocks rose on Friday after cool inflation data suggested that the Federal Reserve has more room to cut interest rates. The personal consumption expenditures price index, which is considered the Fed's preferred inflation measure, increased 0.1% in August, in-line with economist estimates. On a year-over-year basis, the PCE Index rose 2.2%, slightly below economist estimates of 2.3%.

Persons: —, Clark Bellin, Bellin, Sonu Varghese, that's, Varghese Organizations: Federal, Service, Federal Reserve, Bellwether Wealth, Business, Carson Group, Here's

☆ A super-rare bullish signal with a perfect track record just flashed in the stock market, suggesting another year of record highs
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-27 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A rare bullish signal with a perfect track record flashed in the stock market this week. This signal has flashed 28 times since 1962, with the S&P 500 averaging 15% returns one-year later. AdvertisementAn ultra-rare bullish signal with a perfect track record flashed in the stock market this week, suggesting another year of record highs ahead. Advertisement"Similar improvements in market breadth resulted in a 96% win rate over the following year," Christians said in a note to clients on Tuesday. But the signal has a perfect win rate when it flashes while the stock market is at or near record highs, as it did this week.

Persons: —, McClellan, SentimenTrader, Dean Christians, that's Organizations: Service

☆ 'Big Short' investor Michael Burry bet half of his portfolio on Chinese stocks. It's finally starting to pay off.
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-26 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Famed "Big Short" investor Michael Burry is benefiting from the recent surge in Chinese stocks. Burry began aggressively buying Chinese stocks in the fourth quarter of 2022, and it seems to finally be paying off. AdvertisementBurry also has 12% of his portfolio invested in Baidu, and another 12% of his portfolio invested in JD.com. Billionaire investor David Tepper said on Thursday that it's a buy "everything" moment for Chinese stocks. Tepper believes there's more upside to be had in Chinese stocks due to their depressed valuations.

Persons: Michael Burry, —, Burry, Alibaba, David Tepper, Tepper, there's Organizations: Scion, Management, Service, Scion Asset Management, Baidu, People's Bank of China, Alibaba, CNBC Locations: JD.com, China, HedgeFollow, China's

☆ A majority of millionaires plan to vote for Harris over Trump in November
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-26 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

A majority of wealthy investors plan to vote for Kamala Harris over Donald Trump, a new UBS survey says. The survey shows 57% of investors with at least $1 million in investable assets support Harris, while 43% back Trump. AdvertisementA majority of wealthy investors are planning to vote for Kamala Harris over Donald Trump in the upcoming November election. 57% of survey respondents said they plan to vote for Harris, while 43% said they were going to vote for Trump. Harris had a significant edge among Independents, with 60% planning to support her vs 40% for Trump.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Harris, — Organizations: UBS, Trump, Investors, Service, Business

☆ Hedge fund billionaire David Tepper says he's loading up on Chinese stocks after the nation's stimulus bazooka
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-26 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

David Tepper is growing even more bullish on Chinese stocks amid the nation's new fiscal stimulus measures. Tepper views China's stock market as more attractive than the US stock market due to valuation differences. AdvertisementIt's a buy "everything" moment for Chinese stocks after the country launched a fiscal stimulus bazooka this week, according to billionaire investor David Tepper. But Tepper believes Chinese stocks have plenty of room to run higher, even after the recent surges. On US markets, Tepper said he is not following his buy "everything" mantra with Chinese stocks and is being more selective in buying US stocks.

Persons: David Tepper, Tepper, —, Pan Gongsheng, Donald Trump, he's Organizations: Service, CNBC, Fed, Federal, People's Bank of China, PDD Holdings, Tencent Holdings, Management, Wynn Resorts, Vegas Sands, Baidu, China Internet Locations: China, Vegas

☆ Benard Arnault added $6 billion to his net worth in a day after China's stimulus sparked a rally in luxury stocks
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-25 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

China's new stimulus measures helped boost Bernard Arnault's net worth by $6.2 billion in a day. LVMH shares surged 4% on the news. Bernard Arnault, the chairman of LVMH, saw his net worth soar $6.2 billion on Tuesday, according to data from Bloomberg, as shares of the luxury goods maker surged 4%. At one point in March, Arnault was the richest person in the world, but since the start of the year, he slipped in the net worth rankings as LVMH stock struggled and a huge mega-cap tech rally boosted the net worth of tech CEOs. AdvertisementArnault's net worth now stands at $183 billion, just ahead of Oracle cofounder Larry Ellison's $179 billion and behind the $200+ billion fortunes of Mark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos, and Elon Musk.

Persons: Bernard Arnault's, —, Bernard Arnault, Arnault, Louis Vuitton, LVMH, Pan Gongsheng, Larry Ellison's, Mark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk Organizations: Consumers, Service, Bloomberg, Dior, Tiffany, TAG Heuer, People's Bank of China, Oracle Locations: China

☆ 'We could be in for an everything rally': Stocks are mirroring the early days of one of history's biggest bull markets, hedge fund manager says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-25 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Hedge fund manager Eric Jackson believes an 'everything rally' can take hold in the stock market. Interest rate cuts, economic growth, and yield curve changes favor risk assets, according to Jackson. AdvertisementThe stock market's relentless rise higher could turn into an "everything rally," according to hedge fund manager Eric Jackson of EMJ Capital. AdvertisementHe added: "And when that happened, there was a stock market rally which lasted 10 months. The yield curve finally went positive earlier this month.

Persons: Eric Jackson, Jackson, —, we've Organizations: Service, EMJ, CNBC, Nasdaq, Treasury Locations: Jackson

☆ 3 things point to a strong stock market rally through December even as election uncertainty looms, Fundstrat says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-25 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Lee cites declining margin debt and a dovish Fed as key resons to be bullish on stocks. "We really haven't seen tops until margin debt actually starts to really rollover," Lee said. That "firepower" refers to the fact that FINRA margin debt declined in August to $797 billion, well below its October 2021 peak of $936 billion. AdvertisementThe S&P 500 surged 14% in the first half of 2024, putting this into play. The data shows that since 1950, the S&P 500 has delivered an average second-half gain of 9.8% under such circumstances, with an 83% win ratio.

Persons: Fundstrat's Tom Lee, Lee, —, Tom Lee, there's, Lee crunched, Volcker Organizations: Fed, Service, Federal Reserve

☆ Why a jump in economic growth could be the stock market's nightmare scenario
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

An acceleration of US economic growth is a major risk for investors, says economist Steven Blitz. Blitz warns a "no landing" scenario could lead to inflation rebound and Fed rate hikes. The fed funds rate should be around 4% due to economic resilience, Blitz advises. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementAn acceleration of economic growth in the US might be the stock market's worst-case scenario, according to GlobalData TS Lombard chief economist Steven Blitz.

Persons: Steven Blitz, —, Blitz Organizations: Service, GlobalData, Federal Reserve

☆ Jamie Dimon says an 'evil axis' of countries threatening war is the biggest risk to the world economy in the next century
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Jamie Dimon warns rising geopolitical tensions could weaken the global economy and stock markets. He labeled Iran, North Korea, and Russia an "evil axis" and criticized China's approach to geopolitics. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementJPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned that investors are overlooking a key risk that could significantly weaken the global economy and stock markets over the next century. You have a lot of war taking place right now," Dimon told CNBC-TV18 during a visit to India on Tuesday.

Persons: Jamie Dimon, —, Dimon Organizations: Service, CNBC, TV18, Business Locations: Iran, North Korea, Russia, India

☆ Stock market today: Dow ends at a record high as markets see rising odds of another big rate cut
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-23 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

US stocks rose Monday, with the Dow closing at a record high amid hopes for more rate cuts. Odds of a 50 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting increased to 53%, up from 29% last week. AdvertisementUS stocks gained on Monday with the Dow Jones Industrial and S&P 500 closing at record highs as hopes of more Fed interest rate cuts ramped up. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets expect the Fed funds rate to fall to below 3% by the end of 2025, from 4.83% on Monday. That lines up with Kashkari's projection for the long-term Fed funds rate to sit at around 2.9%.

Persons: —, Austan Goolsbee, Neel Kashkari, Goolsbee, Kashkari Organizations: Dow, Service, Dow Jones Industrial, Federal, Chicago Fed, Minneapolis Fed, Fed Locations: Chicago

☆ Here are the most important days for the stock market between now and the November election, according to BofA
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-23 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

There are key stock market catalysts on the horizon before November. In a Monday note, Bank of America highlighted the most important days for the stock market between now and the November Presidential election. AdvertisementBank of AmericaNovember 6Technically the day after the election, the most important day for the stock market is November 6, when markets can react to the results. The stock market experienced a similar-sized move on the day after the prior Presidential election, with the S&P 500 jumping 2.2% on November 4, 2020. But now that the Fed has started its cutting cycle, we think labor market data (e.g.

Persons: — Organizations: Service, Federal, Bank of America, Investors, Fed Locations: United States

☆ Stock market today: Indexes extend gains as investors gear up for fresh economic data
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-23 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Investors await key economic data this week, including consumer confidence, revised GDP growth, and the PCE Index. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari defended the recent rate cut and sees more cuts ahead. AdvertisementUS stocks rose on Monday, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average testing record highs as investors prepare for fresh economic data this week. Investors will get consumer confidence data on Tuesday, another revision to second-quarter GDP growth on Thursday, and fresh inflation data on Friday with the release of the personal consumption expenditures index. The chatter comes just a few days after the Fed cut interest rates by 50 basis points at the end of its policy meeting last Wednesday.

Persons: Dow Jones, Neel Kashkari, —, Kashkari Organizations: Dow, Minneapolis, Service, Dow Jones, Federal, Governors, CNBC, Fed, Here's

☆ Why stocks have a lot more room to rally before hitting a peak, according to a technical analyst
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-23 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Stock market highs are expected to continue into 2025, according to Oppenheimer's Ari Wald. AdvertisementWald's 6,000 price target for the S&P 500 is based on the median bull market cycle. "The S&P 500 is up 64% over the 23 months between October 2022 and September 2024. And if the current bull market follows the path of the average bull market, stocks could continue to rise through the end of 2025 with the S&P 500 rising to around the 7,000 level. "We view the cycle high for Industrials as confirmation of an intact bull market," Wall said.

Persons: Oppenheimer's Ari Wald, Wald, —, Oppenheimer, Ari Wald, it's, Wall, " Wald Organizations: Service, New York Stock Exchange, ISI Locations: That's

☆ JD Vance says he's worried about a 'death spiral' in the US bond market. Here's what he's talking about.
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-22 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

JD Vance warned recently of a "death spiral" in the US bond market. "Do they try to take down the Trump presidency by spiking bond rates?" AdvertisementVice Presidential candidate JD Vance worries about soaring interest rates sparking a "death spiral" in the US bond market that could ultimately "take down the finances of this country." And the only thing that really makes that serviceable is the interest rates are still pretty low. As to where US interest rates seem to be going in the near future, the answer is lower.

Persons: Vance, Trump, JD Vance, —, Tucker Carlson, Liz Truss, Steve Sosnick, Sosnick Organizations: Service, Trump, Federal, Medicare, Social Security, Bank of England, Interactive Brokers, Business Locations: China, Japan

☆ Stock market today: US stocks end mixed but finish the week near record highs after the Fed's first rate cut in 4 years
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-20 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut since 2020 helped drive the week's gains. The anticipation and delivery of the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut since 2020 helped drive the gains this week. The Fed issued a jumbo 50 basis point interest rate cut to "recalibrate" monetary policy, as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell put it nine times during his FOMC speech on Wednesday. US stocks soared on Thursday after declining slightly on Wednesday, as investors had more time to digest the Fed's interest rate decision. AdvertisementThe S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both hit record highs on Thursday.

Persons: —, Jerome Powell, Raymond James, Larry Adam, Adam Organizations: Dow, Federal, Investors, Service, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Fed, Dow Jones Industrial

☆ There's a 12% correction looming for the stock market by the end of the year, Stifel says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-20 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Stifel warns of a sharp stock market correction by year-end, with the S&P 500 potentially dropping 12%. "Our instruments tell us to expect an S&P 500 correction to the very low 5,000s by 4Q24," Bannister said. AdvertisementInvestors should prepare for a sharp and quick correction in the stock market before the end of the year, according to Stifel. In a note on Thursday, chief equity strategist Barry Bannister of Stifel warned that the S&P 500 could trade 12% lower in the fourth quarter. "Our instruments tell us to expect an S&P 500 correction to the very low 5,000s by 4Q24," Bannister said.

Persons: Stifel, Barry Bannister, Bannister, — Organizations: Service

☆ Why a top analyst just raised his year-end S&P 500 price target to the highest on Wall Street
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-20 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

BMO's Brian Belski raised his S&P 500 price target to 6,100, signaling 7% upside by year-end. In a note on Thursday, Belski raised his S&P 500 price target for 2024 to 6,100, representing potential upside of 7% over the next three months. Belski's prior 2024 price target for the S&P 500 was 5,600. AdvertisementBelski also finds it encouraging that recent stock market gains have not been concentrated in just the mega-cap technology stocks. AdvertisementBased on Belski's 6,100 price target, that implies a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.4x, which is above historical averages.

Persons: Brian Belski, —, Belski, Belski's Organizations: Service, BMO, Wall, Federal, Fed

☆ Stock market today: Indexes edge down as traders hit pause after rally to record highs
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-20 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks traded slightly lower as investors pressed pause on the rally to record highs. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones hit record highs on Thursday after the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point rate cut. Heavy trading is expected on Friday due to option expirations and S&P quarterly index rebalancing. AdvertisementUS stocks traded sightly lower on Friday as investors pressed pause on the ongoing rally to record highs. The so-called triple witching day occurs when there is a simultaneous expiration of stock options, index options, and index futures contracts.

Persons: Dow Jones, —, Thursday's, Jerome, Brian Belski, Michael Reinking, Reinking Organizations: Federal, Service, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, NYSE, Here's

☆ The Fed has poured rocket fuel on the red-hot AI trade
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-19 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

AI stocks surged after the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point rate cut. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 soared nearly 3% on Thursday, while the underlying AI trade saw even bigger gains. Investors in the stock market's AI trade can thank Fed chairman Jerome Powell for Thursday's risk-on surge in tech, according to Wedbush analyst Dan Ives. AdvertisementIves said that while the AI trade has mainly been focused on Nvidia and Microsoft, other companies are starting to join in on the fun.

Persons: Dan Ives, —, Jerome Powell, Ives Organizations: Federal, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Broadcom, Service, Federal Reserve, Investors, Big Tech, Microsoft, Oracle, Dell, IBM, APple Locations: Asia

☆ One number shows why the economy might not get the immediate relief many hope for
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-19 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

That rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield, a key lending benchmark for everything from mortgages to corporate debt. "The reaction within Treasury markets was most telling yesterday," Reinking said. AdvertisementHowever, it also means the 10-year Treasury is moving higher since the decision. The 10-year Treasury yield is a lending benchmark for everything from home loans to corporate debt. "That's positive for the economy, and in that case yields should be higher.

Persons: —, Michael Reinking, Reinking, Freddie Mac, Inki Cho, Sonu Varghese, Carson, Jerome Powell's, Varghese Organizations: Service, Federal, Treasury, Business, New York Stock Exchange, Fed

☆ The Fed's 50 basis point rate cut won't do anything to stop a recession, economist David Rosenberg says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-19 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed's big rate cut won't stop a recession, economist David Rosenberg says. Rosenberg's bearish call comes one day after the Federal Reserve delivered a jumbo 50 basis point interest rate cut, the Fed's first rate cut since 2020. AdvertisementBut Rosenberg isn't backing down, likening 2024 to 2007, right before the economy slowed and entered a painful recession. He added: "Half the country is in recession right now when we apply data science to the commentary." AdvertisementAs for the soaring stock market, Rosenberg says investors should heed the warning signs coming out of the bond market.

Persons: David Rosenberg, He's, Rosenberg, —, Rosenberg's Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, BLS

☆ THEN AND NOW: The cast of 'Lost,' 20 years on from the show's premiere
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-19 | by ( Eve Crosbie | Meghan Cook | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

"Lost" premiered its first episode 20 years ago on September 22, 2004. The show followed the lives of passengers of Oceanic Flight 815 who crashed on a mysterious island. Go to newsletter preferences Thanks for signing up! AdvertisementIt's been 20 years since the first episode of "Lost" aired, changing television forever. The show chronicled the lives of passengers of Oceanic Flight 815 who wound up stranded on a mysterious island.

Persons: Matthew Fox, Evangeline Lilly, Jorge Garcia, —, It's, Jeffrey Lieber, J, Abrams, Damon Lindelof Organizations: Oceanic, Service, ABC, Business

☆ The stock market risks keeping Wall Street's biggest bulls up at night
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-14 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The bulls on Wall Street have been largely right about the stock market over the past two years. Business Insider asked three bullish stock strategists what they consider the biggest risks. Yet, those economists have been largely wrong about what could sink the stock market and economy. "In May/June, when you had a lot of bears or those that had been late to jump on the bull parade all of a sudden switch their forecasts and kind of chase markets up, which is pretty, I mean pretty, pretty, pretty classic," Belski told Business Insider. The second risk is, similar to Belski's concern, a 1990's type melt-up in the stock market.

Persons: —, Brian Belski, Belski, Yardeni Research's Eric Wallerstein Eric Wallerstein, Wallerstein, that's, Carson, Sonu Varghese Sonu Varghese, Varghese Organizations: Business, Service, BMO, Nvidia, Yardeni Research, Carson Group, Federal Locations: Russia, Ukraine, China, Taiwan

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